Monday, April 2, 2012


According to Barron's magazine, a year ago analysts estimated Q1 of 2012 would be 16%; revised estimates are .7 to 3.1%. And the ratio of earnings pronouncements at 3:1 is the highest since Q1 of 2009 - and we know what happened in March. Transports, the Dow Theory benchmark, was only up 5% last Q, but it is opined that Coal was the reason.
As for the Sentiment Indicators, the Insider Selling to Buying ratio keeps increasing ( but it did that in Q2 of 2009 - the start of the Bull market). Last week was 89:1. Money is flowing out of MMFs at an increasing rate, but mostly going into Bond funds, with equity ETFs increasing slightly.
Large traders, from the Commitment of Traders table, have reversed their multi-month position and are now long the S&P futures, while Small traders are now short. Complacency rules in the newsletter surveys, but toppiness is seen in the McClellan Oscillator and the Bullish % remains high (overbot).
Be sure to check out my new for local events and stock market news.
Here are the numbers:

3/30/2012 3/22/2012
Indices: DJIA  13212 13080
  NAZ  3091 3067

SPX  1408 1397
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 8.5/4.1 7.5/3.7
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.07 2.03
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  66 57
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 15.5 14.8

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1723/1443 1393/1765

Weekly Net: 280 -372

     Cumulative: 133705 133425
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 320/61 235/40
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 351/57 293/58
McClellan  Oscillator 40 38
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 664 765
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 50.1 48.4
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 22.6 23.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. 42.5 42.4

Bear  25.5 27.8
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 5/(2) 10/(4)
CEOinsider selling 89:1 83:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 930 874
3-box rev Bullish%-  83 83
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (1.8B)
MMF flows Change in $B (17.2B) (15.5B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly FEB.. 289B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ FEB.. 691/291/200
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.34% 0.37%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset-CommHedg   5 4.9 

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