Monday, March 25, 2013

EASTER WINDOW DRESSING

The caution light remains on as the market cannot break through its previous highs, especially the SPX. Inflation adjusted, the DJIA should have to rise above 15,651.

Here are the Sentiment numbers - for comment, please click on:




Date>
3/22/2013 3/15/2013
Indices: DJIA  14512 14514
  NAZ  3245 3249

SPX  1556 1560
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   8.1/3.4 8.7/4.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.38 2.02
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  66 61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.6 11.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1665/1509 1750/1430
Weekly Net:
156 320
     Cumulative: 149498 149342
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 579/102 718/93
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 351/50 484/52
McClellan  Oscillator -7 6
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 954 1009
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 47.4 50
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 18.6 18.8

AAII  -Bull :wed. 38.9 45.4

Bear  33.3 32
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 6/18 19/(5)
CEOinsider selling 58:1 44:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  82 84
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag .8B
MMF flows Change in $B (26.5B) 5.3B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 

ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond

Assets in  Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.26% 0.26%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Sunday, March 17, 2013

MARCH MADNESS

Friday was the first down Friday of 2013 - according to Jeff Hirsch ( of the legendary Stock Traders' Almanac) markets tend to sell off after St. Patty's Day, especially when they fall on  a Sunday. Part of the rationale is that people are amassing money to pay their Income Tax next month; we saw in the previous week a huge selling of MMFunds, but last week it again reversed to adding $5B to money markets.
CEO Insider Selling was over $1M last week, reaching 44:1 over Buyers.

Here are the numbers - more commentary on them can be found at my Examiner.com column:
http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

 
Date>
3/15/2013 3/8/2013
Indices: DJIA  14514 14397
  NAZ  3249 3244

SPX  1560 1551
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   8.7/4.3 8.6/3.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.02 2.46
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  61 61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.3 12.6
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1750/1430 2356/839
Weekly Net:
320 1517
     Cumulative: 149342 149022
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 718/93 734/100
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 484/52 476/80
McClellan  Oscillator 6 27
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 1009 951
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 50 44.2
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 18.8 21.1

AAII  -Bull :wed. 45.4 31.1

Bear  32 38.5
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 19/(5) 17/4
CEOinsider selling 44:1 51:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  84 82
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag (.6B)
MMF flows Change in $B 5.3B (16.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
364B
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond
810/352/243
Assets in  Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.26% 0.26%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, March 11, 2013

ROSY SCENARIO

Every day the market just keeps incrementally rising higher without any correction - Tick, Tick, Tick.
Everyone is Bullish - everything is going right - even Congress.
Here are the Sentiment numbers for last week - standouts include a huge rise in Margin Interest to dangerous levels, and Insider Selling is once again extreme over Buyers.

 
Date>
3/8/2013 3/1/2013
Indices: DJIA  14397 14089
  NAZ  3244 3169

SPX  1551 1518
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   8.6/3.5 9.2/4.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.46 2.30
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  61 70
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.6 15.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2356/839 1667/1492
Weekly Net:
1517 175
     Cumulative: 149022 147505
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 734/100 447/110
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 476/80 297/88
McClellan  Oscillator 27 -3
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 951 873
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 44.2 46.3
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 21.1 21.1

AAII  -Bull :wed. 31.1 28.4

Bear  38.5 36.6
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 17/4 10/4
CEOinsider selling 51:1 29:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  82 79
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag (1.1B)
MMF flows Change in $B (16.7B) 5.77B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  364B 330B
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond 810/352/243 764/329/243
Assets in  Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.26% 0.24%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, March 4, 2013

FED-US EX MACHINA

Despite many Sentiment Indicators near dangerous highs, the markets seem bouyant as everyone - from Fundamentalist Warren Buffett to Technician Ralph Acampora ( who recently resurfaced) is wildly Bullish on stocks. Unanimity is usually wrong, and, as any technician will tell you, the only sure thing about an "average" is that the current momentum won't follow exactly the average - unless it's a "moving" one. Even the January Barometer predicts an up market when January is both UP and UP over 5% - at least until the Fall months, when it declines somewhat.

 Last week the notable increases were: CBOE put/call ratio to 70 (Bullish), AAII Bears a few percentage points while the Bulls dropped from 42% to 28%!  Another major move was MM funds switching from a negative $23B to a positive inflow of almost $6B.

Here are the numbers:


Date>
3/1/2013 2/22/2013
Indices: DJIA  14089 14000
  NAZ  3169 3161

SPX  1518 1515
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   9.2/4.0 7.4/3.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.30 2.47
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  70 65
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 15.4 14.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1667/1492 1386/1767
Weekly Net:
175 -381
     Cumulative: 147505 147330
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 447/110 576/82
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 297/88 405/74
McClellan  Oscillator -3 -18
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 873 966
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 46.3 48.4
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 21.1 22.1

AAII  -Bull :wed. 28.4 41.8

Bear  36.6 32.5
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 10/4 17/19
CEOinsider selling 29:1 58:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  79 81
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag 1B
MMF flows Change in $B 5.77B (23.8B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  330B Dec.
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond 764/329/243 Dec.
Assets in  Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.24% 0.26%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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