Monday, December 28, 2009

ZERO (IN)TOLERANCE:

The Results are in for the year: both the overall DITM (Deep-In-The-Money covered call option) strategy and 1 of the pure-play IRA accounts using it returned 20% annualized , thanks to a huge Bull rally,although the strategy is supposed to be market neutral.
What was thought to be, an in my opinion is, a plan lower in risk than an Index fund or stock portfolio, REIT or high-yield security plan, has surprised both in the number of stocks "called away" by the lower strike call, and by the performance of early exercise. The lower risk is due to the "cushion" or safety net of the call.
 
For those of you not familiar with Covered Calls, and are interested in them. please see this definition:
 
For anyone who has some knowledge of trading options, but would like guidance in placing money market alternative assets in the strategy, I am starting a fee-based service next week which will suggest Buy/Write trades on higher dividend stocks and the optimal call to sell, as well as monitoring them in case of a severe decline ar early call-away. I can be reached at : leonbrnt@aol.com for further information. 


The good news is that for 40 weeks in a row, mutual funds have seen inflows; the bad news, for the stock market, is that almost all has gone into bond funds, mostly Treasury.
Also last week, bond funds took In $10B, up from $4.15B the prior week, and MMFs reversed the Outflow trend, taking in $2.59B last week - even though yielding less than 1%, before state and federal taxes, Inflation and a weaker dollar. Money Market Funds now total $3.27T, per the ICI.
From a Long Term perspective, a chart on my wall dating back to 1789 shows that, although the sampling is small (under the 30 tests a technician would like to see), the previous Black Swandives came in 2-lots, and we've had the second one of the decade in '07&'08. Previous doubles were 1841 & '57, 1929 & '42, and 1970 & '74.
From an Intermediate perspective, the above mutual fund numbers suggest that the late adopters in the  Gaussian Bell Curve have not participated in the rally driven by early adopters - floor traders, hedgers, smarter institutional black boxes, et.al.
Although breadth has been strong lately, including Adv./Dec., the McClellan Oscillator (ratio-adjusted) has called short term tops accurately going back to July 1, within a week of the top: July 1 and 24, Aug.1 and 20, Sept.15 and Oct.16, Nov. 15, and Dec. 2 and 16. That is 9 of 9 YTD. The level is now toppy at 60!
Several Sentiment Indicators seem to have taken the week off, such as Inv.Intell. and Baltic Dry Index, as they are suspiciously exactly the same wk/wk. The Nova/Ursa did rise a bit to .67, but well off its highs.

Now that 2009 is almost over, the question in everyone's mind is whether the huge Bull rally is also over, since money managers - approx. 70% of market Volume - had to show they were in this market. Looking at the 9 Selling Tests of the much-followed Wyckoff system, I had to answer NO! After divining a Pt.& Fig. target on the SPX of @1220, based on the Cause & Effect of the Spring consolidation. This is also the predicted level of many wise pundits, including ones I follow. Only Steve Leuthold has recanted so far that he overestimated and looks for a correction, possibly in January, or at least the 2nd half of 2010. PNF charts do not give Time targets.

Here are the Wyckoff Selling Tests:
1) Target has not been reached
2) There is some Volume confirmation of weakness on Up moves, but no-
3) Buying Climax, or heavy Volume blowoff
4) RS, or Relative Strength is not an issue here, since it IS the market
5) The rising bottoms Trendline has not been violated
6&7) Lower highs and lower lows have not been observed in this sideways consolidation since mid-October or mid-November.
8) A Crown top may be forming, but it seems early on - possibly a UTAD (upthrust after Distribution) is currently ongoing.
9) Finally, a 3:1 P/L ratio is not an issue here.

Sentiment table:
MktSentiment Last Week
Prev. Week 5 Year HI 5 Year LOW
DJIA:10520
10328
14093
6626
Nasdaq:
2285
2211
2805
1114
S&P 500:
1126
1102
1561
683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 58
66
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX:
19.5
21.7
90
8.8
McClellan Osc:59
7
108
-100
McClellan Sum:
757
596
1568
-1514
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InvestorsIntel.Bull:
52.2
52.2
63
22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
16.7
16.7
54.4
16
AAII Bull:
37.7
42.1
n/an/a
AAII Bear:
37.7
28.4
n/a
n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:
0.67
0.56
2.2
0.56
Mutual Fund Flows:1 week delay
n/a
-1.2B


Money Market Flows
2.59B
-.5B

ETF equity:Monthly Totals
Nov.738B
Oct.591B


Baltic Dry Index:3258
3258
11700
663
Bullish %:
77
75buy
88
2
Insider Corporate Sellers:
28:1
28:1
108:1
2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, December 21, 2009

ANTI-"CLIMATIC": SOMETHING ROTTEN IN DENMARK-

After spewing around 55,000 tons of carbon emissions from planes, trains and limos to get to the HAMLET in Denmark, world leaders resolved nothing concrete. What are they smoking (or snuffing) in Copenhagen? Apparently it was so COLD there the demonstrators had to abandon their posts.

Meanwhile, Fareed Zakaria's Sunday CNN guest, Nathan Myrhvold posits that the CO2 is already up there, if we spend Trillions to even eliminate further emissions letting the emerging countries run amok, it would be more feasible to raise a hose 17 miles into the air via a helium balloon, and spew fire-hydrant amounts of sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere neutralizing the existing and future emissions - works for me.

Since cars produce less carbon monoxide than the planet's cows, they now also want to bundle up the manure in plastic to reduce it - my solution would be to feed the cows BEANO. Then we can work on the hot air from Wash.DC.

And now to a commercial: This weekend I gave a talk on my zero-rate alternative investment strategy to a group, this being a covered call stock plan that has YTD yielded high double-digit returns, along with a safety-net cushion against normal stock declines. For the lecture notes and charts, readers can contact me at:

leonbrnt@aol.com

As of January I am starting an inexpensive e-mail advisory service, hand-feeding Buy/Write trades, as well as monitoring them weekly for declines or stock call-aways. In my view it is lower in risk than Index funds or stock investing, for the Trillions that are now receiving an "extended" rate near zero %.

No major surprises this week, despite Quadruple-witching expiry: Volume and breadth (New Highs/Lows) were strong, boding well for the near future; money market funds Decreased (see commercial) by a huge $51B. Still, per Barron's, $11B came out of Equity funds in '09 while $357B went in Bonds - total ETFs increased $50B last month, up 7.3%

Here are the Sentiment numbers for the week:

MktSentiment
Last Week
Prev. Week
5 Year HI
5 Year Low
DJIA:
10328
10471
14093
6626
Nasdaq:
2211
2190
2805
1114
S&P 500:
1102
1106
1561
683
CBOE Eq. put/call:
66
62
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX:
21.7
21.6
90
8.8
McClellan Osc:
7
21
108
-100
McClellan Sum:
596
496
1568
-1514
           Newsletter Surveys




InvestorsIntel.Bull:
52.2
48.4
63
22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
16.7
16.5
54.4
16
AAII Bull:
42.1
42.7
n/a
n/a
AAII Bear:
28.4
35.4
n/a
n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:
0.56
0.55
2.2
0.56
Mutual Fund Flows(1 wk delay)
n/a
6B


Money Market Flows
-51B
-.4B


ETFequity:MonthlyTotals
Oct.591B
Sep.$580B


Baltic Dry Index:
3258
3579
11700
663
Bullish %:
75buy
72
88
2
Insider Corporate Sellers:
28:1
43:1
108:1
2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, December 14, 2009

HOLY GUACAMOLE (WHACK-A-MOLE):

Comparisons are often made between an amateur poker player sitting in on the World Series of Poker, and the average investor trying to compete with institutional traders using black boxes, flash trading and dark pools - add to that government intervention just when a trend is recognized; and it often spells disaster these days. Technical tools, including Sentiment, can help, but lately they haven't told much, with the end of the year portfolio-squaring in sight.

The market and breadth continue to act strong, as Trillions of $$ remain in low-returning investments- still, warning signs appear on the horizon: the Bullish % is down 5 points from its high at 72, a SELL signal; the Investors' Intelligence Bears are at a 5-year low of 16.5 (complacent); and this week's Insider Selling jumped to 43 to 1 over Buying - Holiday shopping, no doubt!

Note: Investors who are "FED" up with Bernanke's zero interest rate policy for an extended period, might want to look into a simple, low-risk stock market strategy that has been returning annualized double-digit results so far this year, with an added safety net.

I have been giving talks on this dividend/covered call plan in the Bay Area (a reprise this Saturday at the SF Options group), and would be happy to share the lecture notes and results with anyone by responding to : leonbrnt@aol.com.

For those who have already inquired and do not feel confident about selecting and monitoring these intermediate term positions, I am offering a fee-based service on a quarterly basis, until the training wheels are ready to come off. It includes weekly Buy/Write (as needed) selections, and the monitoring of expired or called-away positions ( also possible downdrafts).

This is based on 25 years of professional and private experience and 5 years teaching a similarly run Cyber-class at Golden Gate Univ. using e-mail communications, with phone calls if urgent action is required.


Here are the Sentiment numbers:

MktSentiment Last Week
Prev. Week5 Year High5 Year Low
DJIA:10471
10388
14093
6626
Nasdaq:
2190
2194
2805
1114
S&P 500:
1106
1105
1561
683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 62
61
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX:
21.6
21.3
90
8.8
McClellan Osc:21
23
108
-100
McClellan Sum:
496
444
1568
-1514
           Newsletter Surveys




InvestorsIntel.Bull:
48.4
50.0
63
22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
16.5
16.7
54.4
16
AAII Bull:
42.7
41.6
n/an/a
AAII Bear:
35.4
33.7
n/a
n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:
0.55
0.56
2.2
0.56
Mutual Fund Flows:
n/a
7.1B


Money Market Flows
-.4B
-8.4B

ETF equity:Monthly Totals
Oct.591B
Sep.$580B

Baltic Dry Index:3579
4107
11700
663
Bullish %:
72
74
88
2
Insider Corporate Sellers:
43:1
26:1
108:1
2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, December 7, 2009

HAVE YOU ANY "INTEREST" ?:

For most of 2009 I have been developing an alternative strategy to the Zero Interest Rate policy that Fed Chairman Bernanke is implementing "for an extended period", penalizing the prudent investor used to Treasurys, CDs, etc., and driving them into riskier investment "bubbles". Briefly, this strategy involves exposure in the stock market with a safety net and additional return derived from In-The-Money covered calls on quality stocks with 3% dividends or greater, approaching a total double-digit return while providing some safety for the individual stock or market well below the current prices.

I will be reprising my initial talk to the SF Options group this month - December 19. Anyone wishing a copy of the presentation can e-mail me at: leonbrnt@aol.com.
Meanwhile, the Sentiment picture appears mixed, with NYSE new highs over 500 and downturns being met with buyers; on the downside, the Inv.Intell. Bears dropped to a record low of 16 (June of 2003), and mutual fund investors are abandoning stocks for bonds.

Here are the numbers:


MktSentiment
Last Week
Prev. Week
5 Year Hi
5 Year Low
DJIA:
10388
10309
14093
6626
Nasdaq:
2194
2138
2126
1114
S&P 500:
1105
1091
1561
683
CBOE Eq. put/call:
61
58
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX:
21.3
24.7
90
8.8
McClellan Osc:
23
-28
108
-100
McClellan Sum:
444
393
1568
-1514
           Newsletter Surveys




InvestorsIntel.Bull:
50.0
50.6
63
22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
16.7
17.6
54.4
16
AAII Bull:
41.6
41.7
n/a
n/a
AAII Bear:
33.7
31.8
n/a
n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:
0.56
0.70
2.2
0.56
Mutual Fund Flows:
n/a
-.9B


Money Market Flows
-8.4B
-7.8B


ETF equity:Monthly Totals
Oct.691B
Sep.$580B


Baltic Dry Index:
4107
3974
11700
663
Bullish %:
74
76
88
2
Insider Corporate Sellers:
26:1
26:1
108:1
2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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