Tuesday, June 25, 2013

ROSE E. SCENARIO

Many of the Sentiment Indicators have again regressed to the mean from extremes, due to the recent selloff, creating much needed doubt in investors' minds.

 Speculative NASD Volume versus NYSE is down, the VIX rose up 20 last week and the CBOE put/call ratio rose again to 71 - all ending complacency. The McClellan Summation Index ( cumulative from the Oscillator) went negative for the first time in many months. The Oscillator itself gave a BUY signal at minus 94!



  The table below shows the weekly Sentiment Indicator numbers compared to the previous week. Multi-year highs and lows can be found under: Older Posts.
 For commentary on these, please go to:
and click on BLUE title-
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Here are the numbers:


Date>
6/21/2013 6/14/2013
Indices: DJIA  14659 15070
  NAZ  3320 3423

SPX  1573 1626
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   9.6/5.2 7.7/3.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.84 2.26
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  71 70
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 18.9 17.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 567/2624 944/2243
Weekly Net:
-2057 -1299
     Cumulative: 148257 150314
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 280/465 221/549
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 310/133 302/94
McClellan  Oscillator -94 -47
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -107 202
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 46.8 43.8
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 21.9 22.9

AAII  -Bull :wed. 37.5 33

Bear  30 34.6
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 3/8
CEOinsider selling 24:1 n/a
3-box rev Bullish%-  69 81
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag (2.3B)
MMF flows Change in $B (25B) 1B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 

ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond

Assets in  Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.38% 0.29%


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, June 17, 2013

DOW(N) JONES AVERAGES

After a spectacular  Bull Run, the stock market has declined 3 of the past 4 weeks, thanks largely to the Fed - which will be generally reporting its intent again this week. Below are the Sentiment Indicators for the week (with the exception of CEO Insider Selling, not available so far).

For commentary, and some investment meetups in the future, please click on the following link:


and click on BLUE title-

 

Date>
6/14/2013 6/7/2013
Indices: DJIA  15070 15248
  NAZ  3423 3469

SPX  1626 1643
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   7.7/3.4 9.0/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.26 2.31
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  70 66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17.2 15.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 944/2243 1447/1717
Weekly Net:
-1299 -270
     Cumulative: 150314 151613
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 221/549 203/343
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 302/94 334/74
McClellan  Oscillator -47 -40
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 202 515
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 43.8 45.8
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 22.9 20.8

AAII  -Bull :wed. 33 29.5

Bear  34.6 38.9
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 3/8 (5)/21
CEOinsider selling n/a 35:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  81 82
US equity -ICI Fund Flows (2.5B) 1weeklag
MMF flows Change in $B 1B (2.5B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
APR.
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond
APR.
Assets in  Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.29% 0.31%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Sunday, June 9, 2013

BEWARE OF J.A.S.O.N.


J.A.S.O.N - , abbreviations for the months June until November, represent the worst semi-annual cycle for investors. In this month's Examiner.com column:


I discuss the recent TSAA/MTA joint Technical meeting at Bloomberg, featuring Garrett Jones.
 Although he is calling for an imminent huge crash in the near future, there are many mixed signals from the Sentiment Indicators:
 The McClellan oscillator is still at minus levels, despite the runup on Friday - since the overall week's Advance/Declines were again negative, for the 3rd week in a row. Also on the McClellan chart is a longer term signal of the 5% - 10% line bottoming out and turning upward, just as it did in December. The CBOE put/call ratio at 66 is also high (but CEO Insider Selling remains high as well - as in Armageddon outta here!)
 
 Another rarity last week was the NYSE new highs being outnumbered by new lows. Both domestic and global money flows are enigmatic, some setting records (global), and a 7 month high withdrawal of funds from U S equity funds. Here are the numbers:

 

Date>
6/7/2013 5/31/2013
Indices: DJIA  15248 15115
  NAZ  3469 3455

SPX  1643 1630
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   9.0/3.9 7.1/3.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.31 2.15
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  66 59
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 15.1 16.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1447/1717 896/2277
Weekly Net:
-270 -1381
     Cumulative: 151613 151883
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 203/343 408/224
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 334/74 398/58
McClellan  Oscillator -40 -81
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 515 893
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 45.8 52.1
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 20.8 19.8

AAII  -Bull :wed. 29.5 36

Bear  38.9 29.6
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k (5)/21 1/24
CEOinsider selling 35:1 34:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  82 88
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag (1.7B)
MMF flows Change in $B (2.5B) 12.2B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  APR. 384nh
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond APR. 854/355/258
Assets in  Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.31% 0.30%


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, June 3, 2013

JUNE SWOON

Reporting extreme Sentiment Indicators is getting to seem like a fool's errand, when "fighting the Fed" - which has moved from a referee to a player on the field- causing 6 straight monthly gains in the stock market sans corrections. In fact, per my favorite mag- Barron's- 17 of the past 20 months have been up, despite economic and political conditions. Possibly now the market may get some selling, although according to the model for strong UP January years, it shouldn't occur before August - then the Terrible Twos of Sept.Oct. kick in.

The McClellan Oscillator ended the week at a minus 81 - a huge BUY signal in my work. For more on the table below, please see:


 

Each week this column serves to announce local Bay Area investment meetings, mostly Technical and Options-related for the weeks ahead; it also attempts to highlight Contrary Behavior Indicators (as opposed to making market predictions) by concentrating various comments and data in one place. 
 The reader can SUBSCRIBE to this column (above) for regular weekly updates and click on BLUE title

 

Date>
5/31/2013 5/24/2013
Indices: DJIA  15115 15303
  NAZ  3455 3459

SPX  1630 1649
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   7.1/3.3 8.9/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.15 2.47
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  59 62
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 16.3 14.0
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 896/2277 1089/2077
Weekly Net:
-1381 -988
     Cumulative: 151883 153264
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 408/224 851/81
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 398/58 519/59
McClellan  Oscillator -81 -41
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 893 1117
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 52.1 55.2
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 19.8 18.8

AAII  -Bull :wed. 36 49

Bear  29.6 21.6
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 1/24 3/20
CEOinsider selling 34:1 50:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  88 89
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag (.5B)
MMF flows Change in $B 12.2B 19.5B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
384nh
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond
854/355/258
Assets in  Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.30% 0.25%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


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