Sentiment Indicators warned of toppiness in the markets a few weeks ago with Orange Alert, and Tom DeMark of Bloomie nailed it on March 26. Based on several reasons, my guess of 2012 was a Bar Bell approach, with the 1st and 4th Q rising, and the middle sloppy. 6-month, 4-year Presidential and Decennial cycles are the main deciders. So good so far.
Buy signals are not seen nor expected in the near future - several Indicators are still at Bearish (for the market) levels. the Inv.Intell. Bulls hit 52.7%, a recent high; NASD Volume increased vs. NYSE (speculative); CEO Insider Selling was cut in half, but still high at 44:1. The SPX was stretched above its 50-day MA.
For my DITM (deep-in-the-money) covered call strategy:
it has been put on hold while awaiting a bottom entry level. While it is not the best short term strategy for the recent Bull run, it has increased the safety cushion on existing holdings.
Here are the numbers:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Date> |
| 4/5/2012 | 3/30/2012 |
| Indices: | DJIA | 13060 | 13212 |
| | NAZ | 3080 | 3091 |
| SPX | 1398 | 1408 |
| NASD/NYSE | WklyVolume (Bshs). | 6.9/3.1 | 8.5/4.1 |
| nasd/nyse | Specul.Ratio hi=bullish | 2.23 | 2.07 |
| Sentiment: | put/call-CBOE | 60 | 66 |
| Barron's | VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 | 16.7 | 15.5 |
| Advance/Dec-NYSE.. | 1139/1999 | 1723/1443 |
| Weekly Net: | -860 | 280 |
| Cumulative: | 132845 | 133705 |
| Weekly | NYSE hi/low | 246/68 | 320/61 |
| New Hi's/Low's | Nasdaq h/l | 197/107 | 351/57 |
| McClellan | Oscillator | -25 | 40 |
| McClellan Sum | .+750/-1000 | 540 | 664 |
| Newsletter | Inv.Intel -Bull:tues | 52.7 | 50.1 |
| Surveys | Bear:-5yrs | 21.5 | 22.6 |
| AAII -Bull :wed. | 38.2 | 42.5 |
| Bear | 27.8 | 25.5 |
| COT:Change w/w | large/small (net)k | .6/2 | 5/(2) |
| CEOinsider | selling | 44:1 | 89:1 |
| BalticDryIndex | GlobalEcon | 931 | 930 |
| 3-box rev | Bullish%- |
| 83 |
| US equity -ICI | Fund Flows | 1 wk lag | (3.5B) |
| MMF flows | Change in $B | (15.2B) | (17.2B) |
| MargDebt- top (300M) | monthly FEB.. |
| 289B |
| ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond | million$$ FEB.. |
| 691/291/200 |
| 2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation | 0.32% | 0.34% |
| Euro futures | 1 yr.offset-CommHedg | 5.2 | 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding.
For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
Subscribe in a reader
BETTER LATE THAN NEVER:
No comments:
Post a Comment