Wednesday, May 27, 2015

QUITE CONTRARY

Contrary to what I posted earlier this month (Contrarian that I am!), after visiting with family and friends over the past two weeks in Redding and So. Lake Tahoe, I find that some extended family members ( possibly back east) would like to hear what I have to offer in the way of Investment Finance info I dig up each week and report on my blog - Mktsentiment.blogspot.com , after over ten years of doing so.

I don't pretend to know or forecast what the market will do short term - no one can do that, just as with the weather or Economy. Contrary to these last two predictions which are impossible to envision long term, short term markets are harder (less profitable) to trade, unless you are a highly trained trader or HFT (high frequency trader- computer).

For young people just starting out, as well as retirees who do not need their 401Ks/IRAs for emergencies ( passing them on to heirs) IMO the stock market is the place to be. Lately the go to investment is Index funds - either mutual funds, or ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) which are usually mutual funds traded on an exchange, such as the New York SE. They have outperformed "managed" funds due to very low management fees.
I recently read that over 50 years, with a high fee (over 2% annually) the managed fund fees will suck up 66% of the money you invest - outrageous!

Having worked for Schwab, I can recommend their Index funds as well as Vanguard's.
Over time, stocks have outperformed all other asset classes such as Real Estate, Gold, Bonds, etc. , although as we've seen this century, all have Boom/Bust cycles.
I've mentioned in previous columns that DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) is definitely the way to go - adding a set amount at fixed periods over time. For example, if ine had just started to invest for retirement in the Nasdaq (Over The Counter, mostly tech stocks) in 2000, they would be at the same level now - unless they had contributed (DCA) during the bottoms of 2002 and 2009. Of course, even though the Composite Index (COMPQ) has risen from 1555 to its old high of 5048, it does not have near the 100 P/E ratio back then (now @19). With $CA one can actually be Happy to see the market sell off - one can buy more shares with a fixed amount!

Enough for now - nest week I hope to explain the purpose of my blog (above) for persons who want to "time" the markets using Technical Analysis (rather than Fundamental) - using Charts that show Price Volume over Time (as well as my favorite Indicator: Sentiment, or Contrary Behavior.

Below are my favorite Sentiment Indicators which I have followed over two decades, having gotten my Market Technician designation on that topic:  

Date>

5/15/2015
5/22/2015
Indices:
DJIA
18272
18232

NAZ
5048
5089

SPX
2122
2126
WklyVolume (Bshs).
naz/ny….
8.4/3.7
8.3/3.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish
2.27
2.44
Sentiment:
put/call-CBOE
59
64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8
12.4
12.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE..
1883/1323
1496/1731
Weekly Net:

560
-235
     Cumulative:

168326
168091
Weekly
NYSE hi/low…
198/118
265/110
New Hi's/Low's
Nasdaq h/l
238/150
300/152
McClellan
Oscillator
n/a
-8
McClellanSum
.+750/-1000
n/a
274
Newsletter
Inv.Intel -Bull
47.5
50.6
Surveys-Tues
Bear:-5yrs
15.8
15.8
Wed.
AAII  -Bull
26.7
25.2

Bear
26.4
25.0
COT:SPX w/w
large/small (net)k

COT:gold  comm.hedg
long-short.000
n/a
(133k)
COT:OIL comm.hedg
long-short.
n/a
(350k)
US$-WSJ

n/a
86.3
CEOinsider
selling
n/a
36:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.
10% holder b/s

.160/50
3-box rev
Bullish%-
64
64
US equity -ICI
Fund Flows
(5.0B)
WeekDelay
MMF flows
Change in $B
(1B)
20.6B
MargDebt- top (300M)
monthly


ETF:mthlyEqty/
Int'l/Bond-$B


2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation
n/a
0.62%
TIP (ETF)
Inflation
n/a
112.93



For those FB readers who get too much "spam" already (I had to stop FB on my cell as it ran me over on my data feed amount), they can block my weekly utterances by going to home page - click on the fourth icon to the right of Find Friends on the upper toolbar (the padlock).

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, May 11, 2015

SINKO DE MAYO

Just when I take my usual two week vacation - to the real Casinos in Lake Tahoe- the market starts to get frisky (aka Volatile). Last week saw three big down days, followed by the Invisible Hand huge rally on Friday. Longer term, the DJIA (30) has been on a tear for 3 1/2 years with nary a major correction. As a technical analyst I prefer to look at charts, rather than listen to talking heads disagreeing on what economic event caused the action. What we used to call looking at photos of the markets (before High Freqs started PhotoShopping them) now show a tightening or coil in the price ranges, although Bullishly breaking to new highs - even without the Fed (??).

As some of you readers know I have been writing a sentiment blog since 2004, based on the Indicators I studied for my Chartered Market Technician designation. After halting my journalistic efforts on the Examiner.com and Marina Times, I started popping the column up on Facebook. Kindly, none of my family and friends have complained or delisted me (defriended??), but I decided to stop Spamming everyone and encouraging interested persons to check out my Monday blog: http://mktsentiment.blogspot.com/, or even sign up for it. The column will resume after my return from vaca!

I've used it to try to boil down what I consider recent meaningful research (Barron's, Mauldin, et.al.), as well as the above Sentiment Indicators, such as put/call ratios, newsletter opinions, etc.
The extremes last week (not many from the prior week) were a Bullish reading from the AAII (Individual Investor) where - as you can see below- Bulls and Bears were tied. Margin interest hit new highs (low interest rates could be dangerous), while Futures Traders (COT) smart money is shorting Oil and gold, but long stocks (SPX).
Here are the numbers:

Date> 5/8/2015 5/1/2015
Indices: DJIA  18191 18024
  NAZ  5003 5005
SPX  2116 2108
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.8/3.9 10.0/4.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.51 2.33
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  65 66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.9 12.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1379/1851 1046/2180
Weekly Net: -472 -1134
     Cumulative: 167766 168238
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 162/153 220/91
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 181/197 258/180
McClellan  Oscillator -10 -27
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 305 488
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 52.5 57.4
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 13.9 13.9
Wed. AAII  -Bull  27.1 30.8
Bear  26.8 22
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 10k/(26k) 11k/(17k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (74k) (107k)
COT:OIL comm.hedg long-short. (328k) (320k)
US$-WSJ 85.3 85.8
CEOinsider selling 40:1 NA
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s .160/40 .160/40
3-box rev Bullish%-  65 68
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (7.3B)
MMF flows Change in $B 8.6B (5.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  MARCH 476Bnh
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B MARCH 1268/472/318
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.58% 0.60%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.25 113.89


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, May 4, 2015

M'aidez, May Day

Help me... understand these paradoxes: "Experts" in weather prediction become less accurate the farther out in time they opine; the same is true of Economists (remember the saying- "you can lay all the world's Economists end to end and they would never reach an agreement!". However, studies show that the farther out in time Investors choose, the better their returns.  Contrary to my Technical/short term experience of thirty years, passive investors excel. In other words, sloth and ignorance beats effort and intelligence!!

I recently saw a chart from Schwab showing over 40 years the Stalwart who remained in the market investing annually earned $1,600,000 as of 2013; the  Reactor, bailing after 1987 and 2000 earned $1,063,000 and the Waffler, getting out after each major correction, earned less than $1,000,000! And that does not include DCA, or Dollar Cost Averaging, (buying at the bottoms) which would compound even much more.

So even though the shorter time that "average" traders employ renders the worst profits, the CBOE decides that in a few weeks or so Weekly expiration options will be available on the VIX - just like many stocks and indices. Hoo Haa.

 In the Sentiment area two records were set last week - neither very good predictors of market direction: the monthly figures for March showed new highs in ETFs buying - for stocks, bonds and int'l; also a record was margin interest, after backing off recently. Also high, but slow to predict, was Insider Selling, both by CEOs and all Insiders.

Money continues to flow OUT of MMFs and managed MUFunds (mutual); and commercial shorts increased yet again on both Gold and Oil, although both have acted well recently. Technicians can find a high correlation between the Dollar topping mid-March and Oil bottoming.

Here are the numbers:
Date> 5/1/2015 4/24/2015
Indices: DJIA  18024 18080
  NAZ  5005 5092
SPX  2108 2117
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 10.0/4.3 8.7/3.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.33 2.35
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  66 61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.7 12.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1046/2180 2215/1009
Weekly Net: -1134 1206
     Cumulative: 168238 168248
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 220/91 266/42
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 258/180 313/112
McClellan  Oscillator -27 13
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 488 568
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 57.4 52.5
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 13.9 15.2
Wed. AAII  -Bull  30.8 31.5
Bear  22 23.2
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 11k/(17k) 11k/(14k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (107k) (105k)
COT:OIL comm.hedg long-short. (320k) -325
US$-WSJ 85.8 86.4
CEOinsider selling NA 49:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s .160/40  .160:25
3-box rev Bullish%-  68 74
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (3.4B)
MMF flows Change in $B (5.9B) (6.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  476Bnh March
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1268/472/318 March
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.60% 0.51%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.89 115.02


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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