Thursday, August 23, 2012

EARLY EDITION:

Due to an early start of a vacation (along with the rest of the world), here is an abbreviated Sentiment update: specifically newsletter surveys that come out mid-week.
Since rising to the April 2 high on the SPX of 1422 it again hit that  number Monday with a Candlestick Hammer. Despite that the Inv.Intell. Bull/Bear, and especially the AAII one are both getting stretched to the complacency side. Both the McClellan Oscillator and Summation are only halfway to a speculative top yet; the Bullish % is getting close to a top.
Followers of my DITM (deep-in-the-money) covered call strategy can see how one can make a profit even if the stock drops, at:    http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard
DITM is IMO the optimal strategy in a sideways to down market, which has been the case since the October '07 high, and probable future. More also at:
Here are the numbers:


Date>
8/23/12thurs 8/17/2012
Indices: DJIA  xxx 13275
NAZ  xxx 3076

SPX  xxx 1418
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 8.0/2.8
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish xx 2.86
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE        xx 61
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.5

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. xx 1995/1157

Weekly Net: xx 838

     Cumulative:  xx 139955
Weekly  NYSE hi/low xx 359/45
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l xx 190/125
McClellan  Oscillator -9 29
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 667 656
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 47.3 43.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 24.7 26.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. 42 36.8

Bear  25.9 28.1
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 1/(1)
CEOinsider selling
25:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon
discont.
3-box rev Bullish%-  70 70
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag 1 wk lag
MMF flows Change in $B
11.7B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  JUNE: 284 B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ . JUNE: 686/258/222
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.28% 0.30%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark

Monday, August 20, 2012

LAZY DAYS:

Sentiment numbers have regressed to the norm in most cases over the past week of low Volume ( elsewhere I pointed out that Volume is measured in shares, not capitalized weighting, so higher prices in AAPL, low priced banks, et.al., are not reflected exactly). Also, there has been some funny bifurcation at Barron's Market Lab statistics on Volume, so my one extreme outlier this week - record speculative Volume vis-a-vis NASD compared to NYSE- may not symbolize anything, as all other Indicators have tamed down. Breadth remains strong, and the Bullish % at 70 is getting a bit high!
Those readers who follow my DITM blog:

are advised that following my return, I may be transferring it to my new effort - writing for Seeking Alpha (see link below).


http://seekingalpha.com/article/813991-seeking-yield-and-safety

Next week I leave early on vacation so the report will be truncated to those available.
Here are the numbers:


Date>
8/17/2012 8/10/2012
Indices: DJIA  13275 13207
  NAZ  3076 3020

SPX  1418 1405
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 8.0/2.8 8.5/3.1
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.86 2.70
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  61 61
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.5 14.7

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1995/1157 2020/1117

Weekly Net: 838 903

     Cumulative: 139955 139117
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 359/45 495/51
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 190/125 208/134
McClellan  Oscillator 29 17
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 656 601
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 43.6 43.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 26.6 25.5

AAII  -Bull :wed. 36.8 36.5

Bear  28.1 27.4
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 1/(1) 6/(5)
CEOinsider selling 25:1 45:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon discont.
3-box rev Bullish%-  70 67
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (3.6B)
MMF flows Change in $B 11.7B 10.9B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  JUNE: 284 B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ . JUNE: 686/258/222
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.30% 0.26%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark

Monday, August 13, 2012

REASONS TO BE BULLISH:

The recent uptrend in stocks (except on Mondays) is heartening; Volumes from Nasdaq vs. NYSE hit a record for speculation last week showing Risk On. More on Volume behavior in my Examiner column:
 

Breadth has been strong lately (New highs 10:1 on the NY; Nasdaq turning positive). In the Barron's Option column, Larry McMillan states that the AAII Bull/Bear ratio has only been this positive 4 times over the past 15 years - Oct. '98, March '03, '08, & '09 - all starting new rallies. VIX futures - VXX are also accommodative.  

Here are the numbers:


Date>
8/10/2012 8/3/2012
Indices: DJIA  13207 13096
  NAZ  3020 2967

SPX  1405 1390
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 8.5/3.1 8.5/4.1
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.70 2.07
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  61 69
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14.7 15.6

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2020/1117 1754/1383

Weekly Net: 903 371

     Cumulative: 139117 138214
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 495/51 517/114
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 208/134 176/201
McClellan  Oscillator 17 4
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 601 508
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 43.6 39.4
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 25.5 27.7

AAII  -Bull :wed. 36.5 30.4

Bear  27.4 34.9
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 6/(5) 2/(3)
CEOinsider selling 45:1 12:01
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon
discont.
3-box rev Bullish%-  67 68
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (5.7B)
MMF flows Change in $B 10.9B (4.0B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  JUNE: 284 B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ . JUNE: 686/258/222
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.26% 0.25%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark

Monday, August 6, 2012

PRESIDENTIAL RALLY:

In my July 12 column for the Examiner.com
I wrote about a chart from Ned Davis - NDR Research -  showing stock markets during incumbents' , non- incumbents', and all election years. In the current period - July through October, all three had rises of varying degrees. That is the good news. The divergence comes after Oct.1, when, if Obama loses, the market is due to tank for the remainder of the year. Of course, there are always exceptions!
( tried to paste the chart on this blog but it would not take it - I will attach it to my email alert subscribers).

Merrill Lynch notes that due to the flight to safety (?) of Treasurys, stock investors percentage is the lowest since 1985; also Wall Street strategists, as opposed to analysts, are only recommending 44% in stocks, a 25-year low (56% is usually a BUY signal).

Despite last week's late huge rally, stocks were down slightly for the week - mostly affecting newsletter surveys, which come out Tues. and Wed. Still, the AAII Bull/Bear ratio is still inverted a bit. MMF inflows reversed to outflows; breadth remained strong, but most others were tame.
Here are the numbers:


Date>
8/3/2012 7/27/2012
Indices: DJIA  13096 13075
  NAZ  2967 2958

SPX  1390 1385
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 8.5/4.1 9.0/4.1
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.07 2.19
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  69 68
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 15.6 16.7

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1754/1383 1893/1269

Weekly Net: 371 624

     Cumulative: 138214 137843
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 517/114 411/190
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 176/201 138/255
McClellan  Oscillator 4 16
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 508 544
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 39.4 40.4
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 27.7 26.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. 30.4 28.1

Bear  34.9 43.1
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 2/(3) (2)/(14)
CEOinsider selling 12:01 15:01
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon discont.
3-box rev Bullish%-  68 61
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (2.1B)
MMF flows Change in $B (4.0B) 16.2B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  JUNE: 284 B  
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ . JUNE: 686/258/222
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.25% 0.26%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark