Monday, April 18, 2011

MAY DAY (M'AIDEZ):

In one of the rarest occasions, next week's blog will be MIA, as I shall be incommunicado on vacation at Lake Tahoe, playing the real casino instead of the stock market. I'll have my trusty Droid to keep up with the markets, but will not be able to post Sentiment results.

Today's large drop only validates the Sentiment signals blaring out since the first of the year (see previous blogs). We have yet to break to a new high greater than February's and remain in a Trading Range.

Notable extremes include the VIX, at 15, but also the CBOE put/call ratio, high, at 64. The Investors' Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio remains wide (complacent), with the Bullish % toppy at 80%.

MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
DJIA:1234112380140936626
Nasdaq:2764278028611114
S&P 500:131913281561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 645796-10/0846-1/03
VIX:15.317.9908.8
McClellan Osc:(16)(5)108(123)
McClellan Sum:5567361568(1514)
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InvestorsIntel.Bull:
55.457.36322.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
16.315.754.416
AAII Bull:
42.243.6n/an/a
AAII Bear:
31.028.8n/an/a
US Equity-1 week lagn/a(.3B)
Money Market Flows2.3B8.3B

Baltic Dry Index:1296143011700663
Bullish %:
8082892
Insider Corporate Sellers:22:145:1198:12.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, April 11, 2011

HOPE AND CASH:

I recently received an e-mail that said: In the '60s we had Bob Hope and Johnny Cash; today we have NO HOPE AND NO CASH!

Jeremy Siegel. of Stocks For The Long Run is projecting a huge Bull market in the near future. Despite Martin Pring's second Lost Decade scenario (which I've also bought into with my DITM strategy), a couple of notable technicians are also calling for another Bull market. Tom McClellan , using a 10-year offset correlation to Oil's price moves, sees a rally AFTER 2012 (Mayan Calendar anyone?). Also Jeff Hirsch, of the Traders' Almanac tracks markets after wars and sees 38,000 DJIA by 2025.

Shorter term, however, much conventional wisdom sees lower prices in the second half of 2011, after QEII. Judging by the Inv.Intell. Bull/Bear spread, it might even start very soon: Bulls at 57% are near their Dec. '04 high, while the Bears, slipping to 15.7% is a tenth above the recent multi-year low.

Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
DJIA:1238012376140936626
Nasdaq:2780278928611114
S&P 500:132813321561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 575496-10/0846-1/03
VIX:17.917.4908.8
McClellan Osc:(5)52108(123)
McClellan Sum:7365971568(1514)
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InvestorsIntel.Bull:
57.351.66322.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
15.723.154.415.6
AAII Bull:
43.641.8n/an/a
AAII Bear:
28.831.1n/an/a
US Equity-1 week lagn/a.3B
Money Market Flows8.3B3.9B

Baltic Dry Index:1430153011700663
Bullish %:
8281892
Insider Corporate Sellers:45:128:1198:12.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Sunday, April 3, 2011

RALLY HO!

With the S&P500 only a few points below the Feb. weekly closing high, this could be a Critical Market Juncture whether we continue blissfully upwards or slump into summer. Since 1950, in 15 out of 15 times, the market rose after mid-term elections in double digits - so far we are up 8.7%.
Except for 1990, this is the lowest the market's Q Ratio (Price to Assets) has been since 1983; current home sales were the lowest in 1982; personal savings peaked at 11% in 1983; the unemployment rate the past two years was the worst since 1982; and previous money supply peaks (a few months ago at 9.1%) are similar to '82, '88, and '02 rallies.
Shorter term, however, some extremes that foretold the recent correction still are present: the McClellan Oscillator is at +52; my cumulative A/D is at a record high; the Inv.Intell. Bulls remain above 50%, and the large speculators from the Commitment of Traders remain net short. Finally, the Bullish per cent broke up above 80 again. Here are the numbers:   

MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
DJIA:1237612220140936626
Nasdaq:2789274328611114
S&P 500:133213131561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 545696-10/0846-1/03
VIX:17.417.9908.8
McClellan Osc:5224108(123)
McClellan Sum:5974261568(1514)
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InvestorsIntel.Bull:
51.650.66322.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
23.122.454.416
AAII Bull:
41.837.7n/an/a
AAII Bear:
31.135.0n/an/a
US Equity-1 week lagn/a(2.5B)  
Money Market Flows3.9B(7.8B)

Baltic Dry Index:1530158311700663
Bullish %:
8177892
Insider Corporate Sellers:28:123:1198:12.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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