Monday, June 30, 2014

INCORRECT IN JUNE

According to Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders, since 1962 there has been a CORRECTION of at least 9% in every mid-term election year, such as the present one. So far into 2014, now half way through, the largest was the immediate 5.7% in early February, and ending the semi-annual period up 6.3% YTD.
June was to be the worst month based on years going back to 1945, with May, August and September close behind.

So far this year the Sentiment numbers. like the VIX, tend to make one's eyes glass over- last week was no exception. May's totals for ETFs continue to grow to record highs (see below), and the monthly margin debt drop again, although still high, with zero interest rates. Both sets of Insider trading (legal) remain high, but differed when looked at by Sectors (52 to 1 sellers), or individuals ( officers and 10% stakeholders).   Also high once more - Commercial sellers of Gold, perhaps quarter-ending action.

Breadth (advance/decline and new highs/lows) remain strong - the latter 10 to 1- Wire House Bulls stay above 60% and Bears in the low 20s. Here are the numbers:

Date> 6/27/2014 6/20/2014
Indices: DJIA  16851 16947
  NAZ  4397 4368
SPX  1960 1962
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 9.5/3.9 9.6/4.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.44 2.29
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  53 47
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.3 10.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1817/1414 2243/973
Weekly Net: 403 1270
     Cumulative: 164063 163660
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 556/66 574/51
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 224/98 278/90
McClellan  Oscillator 13 16
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 1000 983
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 60.2 61.4
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 16.3 16.3
AAII  -Bull :wed. 37.2 35.2
Bear  21.1 24.1
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k       .6/6 12/(11)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (131k) (75k)
CEOinsider selling 52:1 17:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 175:20 175:35
3-box rev Bullish%-  83 84
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (1.8B)
MMF flows Change in $B 5B (31B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  428B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1069/428/276
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.46% 0.46%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, June 16, 2014

More POOR Than STANDARD

The S&P 500 took a slight hiccup last week (25 points), a little over 1% - hardly the June correction we've been expecting - we still have option expiry, summer solstice, and quarterly rebalancing to go yet.

Standout Sentiment numbers last week included the Inv. Intell. Bulls near a record of 62%, the same number as the ratio of Insider Sellers to Buyers, as stated by Sectors. Individual tallies, officers/board members as well as 10% stockholders showed a fairly high number again, but not climactic.

Funnily enough, the record since I've been keeping these (around a decade), the highest number of Sector Selling was in May of 2009 - just when this huge Bull market was getting started - Go Figure.
Also at a recent record, for whatever it is worth, is the 2-year Treas. interest rate, at 0.45%

Here are the numbers:


Date> 6/13/2014 6/6/2014
Indices: DJIA  16775 16924
  NAZ  4310 4321
SPX  1936 1949
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 8.9/2.9 8.4/3.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 3.07 2.71
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  51 51
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.2 10.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1302/1910 2093/1135
Weekly Net: -608 958
     Cumulative: 162390 162998
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 492/41 574/66
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 288/68 237/137
McClellan  Oscillator -8 35
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 950 915
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 62.6 62.2
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 17.2 17.4
AAII  -Bull :wed. 44.7 39.5
Bear  21.3 22.2
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 11/(9) 4k/3k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (85k) (64K)
CEOinsider selling 62:1 26:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 180:40 170:50
3-box rev Bullish%-  82 78
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (2.0B)
MMF flows Change in $B 2.6B 2.6B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  APR.
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B APR.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.45%nh 0.41%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, June 9, 2014

DEJA VIEW

Under glassy eyes, the markets keep inching forward to new highs - strong breadth, but continued weak Volume. Even the complacent CBOE put/call ratio is at mid-range -50-, while the VIX slips into the 10 handle. Not since 2007 has it held at that range, just before the SPX got cut in half.

The I.I. (Investors Intelligence) Bulls are at 62.2% - the second highest EVER. NY new highs are almost ten to one.
Here are the numbers- for more commentary, click on:   http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

(You can get the FREE Examiner.com column weekly by clicking on SUBSCRIBE)

Date> 6/6/2014 5/30/2014
Indices: DJIA  16924 16717
  NAZ  4321 4242
SPX  1949 1923
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 8.4/3.1 7.0/2.7*
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.71 2.59
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  51 54
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 10.7 11.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2093/1135 2118/1091
Weekly Net: 958 1027
     Cumulative: 162998 162040
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 574/66 425/62
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 237/137 182/83
McClellan  Oscillator 35 24
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 915 855
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 62.2 58.3
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 17.4 17.3
AAII  -Bull :wed. 39.5 36.5
Bear  22.2 23.2
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 4k/3k 10k/2k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (64K) (79k)
CEOinsider selling 26:1 25:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 170:50 175:35
3-box rev Bullish%-  78 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (2.6B)
MMF flows Change in $B 2.6B 3.3B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  APR. 437B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B APR. 1056/412/263
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.41% 0.38%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, June 2, 2014

Will June Swoon Soon?

The stock market is like Lance Armstrong - hopefully it ends better! With the Fed as EPO it just keeps moving higher by bits, wiping out most downturns intraday. Even most Sentiment Indicators are glassy-eyed, with the exception of the VIX - it has closed below 12 about the same number of days (5) as the S&P 500 (SPX) has been above the double-zero 1900; this aborted my filter of 3 days closing above Resistance, and bodes well for higher prices.

Still, we have to get through June, the mid-term election jinx month; notable extremes to Sentiment include the Inv. Intell. Bull/Bear ratio still above 3:1 Bulls, at 58 to 17. Commercial gold sellers have finally backed off, as have insider sellers and even margin debt, despite low interest rates.

Here are the numbers (with the latest monthly ETF amounts for April:


Date> 5/30/2014 5/23/2014
Indices: DJIA  16717 16606
  NAZ  4242 4185
SPX  1923 1900
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 7.0/2.7* 8.4/3.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.59 2.8
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  54 63
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.4 11.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2118/1091 2107/1115
Weekly Net: 1027 992
     Cumulative: 162040 161013
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 425/62 290/78
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 182/83 111/156
McClellan  Oscillator 24 15
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 855 747
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 58.3 57.2
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 17.3 18.3
AAII  -Bull :wed. 36.5 30.3
Bear  23.2 26.4
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 10k/2k 8k/8k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (79k) (106K)
CEOinsider selling 25:1 17::1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 175:35 160:20
3-box rev Bullish%-  76 74
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (1.8B)
MMF flows Change in $B 3.3B (3.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  437B APR.
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1056/412/263 APR.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.38% 0.35%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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