Monday, April 23, 2012


Barron's magazine this week reported the Big Money Poll Result for the upcoming months - even these geniuses can prove to be a Contrarian's delight. Last Fall the number of Bulls was a lowly 52% - as we now know, the market rallied some 24% since then; the previous Spring the number was 59%, just when the when the DJIA was poised to drop 800 points in May, and 1600 points in June. The Poll number is now 55% Bullish (4% VERY).
Barron's also reported the oft-quoted statistic that since WWII the Nov. to May cycle has produced a profit on $100 to nearly $10,000; while its complementary cycle (May to Nov.) would have netted $99, or a $1 LOSS. If today is any indication.....
The Indicators are, on the whole, rather benign with the Bullish exception of a reversal in the AAII Bull/Bear ratio to 31 Bulls to 33 Bears; also the number of Insider Sales to Buys dropped precipitously, and the MMFs actually had a small Inflow for the first time on many months.

Here are the numbers:

4/20/2012 4/13/2012
Indices: DJIA  13029 12849
NAZ  3000 3011

SPX  1378 1370
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 8.6/4.0 7.7/4.0
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.15 1.93
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  63 66
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17.4 19.6

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2036/1136 915/2260

Weekly Net: 900 -1345

     Cumulative: 132400 131500
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 208/93 111/109
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 194/120 113/142
McClellan  Oscillator -8 -46
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 139 231
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 44.1 48.4
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 23.7 21.5

AAII  -Bull :wed. 31.2 28.1

Bear  33.8 41.6
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 8/(5) 2/(1)
CEOinsider selling 12:1 42:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 972 928
3-box rev Bullish%-  74 sell76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (1.5B)
MMF flows Change in $B .3B (6.1B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly FEB..

ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ FEB..

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.28% 0.27%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset-CommHedg 5.3 5.3

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