Monday, August 30, 2010

STOCKS VS. BONDS:

In the forthcoming TSAA Review there is an article by GGU Adjunct Prof. Nolan Olhausen which reopened my eyes to a tight inverse correlation between stocks and bonds, primarily Treasuries. Since 2007 there has been a mirror image of these, as shown by comparing the TLT to the SPY on a daily basis - almost as though it were a zero sum game.

Another tight correlation, also coincident, is one I've espied for years in the IBD (Investors' Daily), on the chart page, between the DJIA and put/call trading Volume below it - also inverse.

Although coincident may be too late to act, being in the neighborhood can be an eventual and cautionary alert.

Last week's drowsy mean-seeking numbers gave little indications, save for the AAII Bull/Bear readings - a very reliable one: they jumped from 30/42 to 20/49, which is cause for an imminent rally, possibly after Labor Day - a usually bullish time, before the Sept./Oct. onslaught.

MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
DJIA:1015010213140936626
Nasdaq:2153217928051114
S&P 500:106410711561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 706696-10/0846-1/03
VIX:24.425.5908.8
McClellan Osc:-15-34108-123
McClellan Sum:3716071568-1514
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InvestorsIntel.Bull:
33.336.76322.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
31.231.154.416
AAII Bull:
20.730.1n/an/a
AAII Bear:
49.542.5n/an/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:n/an/a2.20.56
US Equity-1 week lagn/a(2.7B)

Money Market Flows3.7B4.1B

ETF equity:Monthly TotalsApr.831BMar.805Bn/a
Baltic Dry Index:2703275611700663
Bullish %:
4454882
Insider Corporate Sellers:18:114:1108:12.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, August 23, 2010

AUGHT FOR NAUGHT:

Not only is the 4-year President's or Kinchin cycle predicting a Fall crash, but the zero year in the Decennial cycle, for 11 cycles (1890) is the worst of the 10. That said, as more and more talking heads and scribes mention this fact, as a contrarian I hold out hope that Sept./Oct., as last year, might not be that bad. I continue to be fully invested in my DITM (covered call with a safety net) strategy, until proven otherwise, despite a gloomy economic picture.

According to Hirsch's Trader's Almanac, over a recent 57-year study, $10,000 became over $578,000 from Nov. to May, while its complementary 6-month period lost money to $341!; however, in that study of Election years, 14 of 21 times the market gained from Oct. to Dec., especially when incumbents were ousted.

The summer Dog Days kept Volume low and most indicators mid-range; however the AAII Bears (one of the most reliable contrary indicators) jumped from 30% to over 42. The Baltic Dry Index - BDI- is screaming to the upside, a sign of healthier global economies.

See below:

MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
DJIA:1021310303140936626
Nasdaq:2179217628051114
S&P 500:107110791561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 665896-10/0846-1/03
VIX:25.526.2908.8
McClellan Osc:-34-40108-123
McClellan Sum:6076841568-1514
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InvestorsIntel.Bull:
36.741.76322.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
31.127.554.416
AAII Bull:
30.139.8n/an/a
AAII Bear:
42.530.1n/an/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:n/an/a2.20.56
US Equity-1 week lagn/a(2.0B)

Money Market Flows4.1B3.5B

ETF equity:Monthly TotalsApr.831BMar.805B

Baltic Dry Index:2756246811700663
Bullish %:
5455882
Insider Corporate Sellers:14:118:1108:12.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, August 16, 2010

August 16

With light Volume in these Dog Days, today's slight upturn reflects a higher reading of the CBOE Equity put/call ratio at 66, a low McClellan Oscillator reading of -40 (oversold), and a nice rebound in the global economic proxy - the BDI, or Baltic Dry Index of 2468, up 500 points from last week.
Everyone except the Chinese are buying US treasuries, putting the 2-yr at .50% and the 10-year at 2.5%, locking in those yields for an "extended" period.

Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
DJIA:1030310653140936626
Nasdaq:2176228828051114
S&P 500:107911211561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 665896-10/0846-1/03
VIX:26.221.7908.8
McClellan Osc:-4025108-123
McClellan Sum:6847501568-1514
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InvestorsIntel.Bull:
41.738.96322.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
27.533.354.416
AAII Bull:
39.830.4n/an/a
AAII Bear:
30.138.2n/an/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:n/an/a2.20.56
US Equity-1 week lagn/a-2.8B
Money Market Flows-3.5B19.2B

ETF equity:Monthly TotalsApr.831BMar.805B

Baltic Dry Index:2468197811700663
Bullish %:
5559882
Insider Corporate Sellers:18:125:1108:12.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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