Monday, December 28, 2009

ZERO (IN)TOLERANCE:

The Results are in for the year: both the overall DITM (Deep-In-The-Money covered call option) strategy and 1 of the pure-play IRA accounts using it returned 20% annualized , thanks to a huge Bull rally,although the strategy is supposed to be market neutral.
What was thought to be, an in my opinion is, a plan lower in risk than an Index fund or stock portfolio, REIT or high-yield security plan, has surprised both in the number of stocks "called away" by the lower strike call, and by the performance of early exercise. The lower risk is due to the "cushion" or safety net of the call.
 
For those of you not familiar with Covered Calls, and are interested in them. please see this definition:
 
For anyone who has some knowledge of trading options, but would like guidance in placing money market alternative assets in the strategy, I am starting a fee-based service next week which will suggest Buy/Write trades on higher dividend stocks and the optimal call to sell, as well as monitoring them in case of a severe decline ar early call-away. I can be reached at : leonbrnt@aol.com for further information. 


The good news is that for 40 weeks in a row, mutual funds have seen inflows; the bad news, for the stock market, is that almost all has gone into bond funds, mostly Treasury.
Also last week, bond funds took In $10B, up from $4.15B the prior week, and MMFs reversed the Outflow trend, taking in $2.59B last week - even though yielding less than 1%, before state and federal taxes, Inflation and a weaker dollar. Money Market Funds now total $3.27T, per the ICI.
From a Long Term perspective, a chart on my wall dating back to 1789 shows that, although the sampling is small (under the 30 tests a technician would like to see), the previous Black Swandives came in 2-lots, and we've had the second one of the decade in '07&'08. Previous doubles were 1841 & '57, 1929 & '42, and 1970 & '74.
From an Intermediate perspective, the above mutual fund numbers suggest that the late adopters in the  Gaussian Bell Curve have not participated in the rally driven by early adopters - floor traders, hedgers, smarter institutional black boxes, et.al.
Although breadth has been strong lately, including Adv./Dec., the McClellan Oscillator (ratio-adjusted) has called short term tops accurately going back to July 1, within a week of the top: July 1 and 24, Aug.1 and 20, Sept.15 and Oct.16, Nov. 15, and Dec. 2 and 16. That is 9 of 9 YTD. The level is now toppy at 60!
Several Sentiment Indicators seem to have taken the week off, such as Inv.Intell. and Baltic Dry Index, as they are suspiciously exactly the same wk/wk. The Nova/Ursa did rise a bit to .67, but well off its highs.

Now that 2009 is almost over, the question in everyone's mind is whether the huge Bull rally is also over, since money managers - approx. 70% of market Volume - had to show they were in this market. Looking at the 9 Selling Tests of the much-followed Wyckoff system, I had to answer NO! After divining a Pt.& Fig. target on the SPX of @1220, based on the Cause & Effect of the Spring consolidation. This is also the predicted level of many wise pundits, including ones I follow. Only Steve Leuthold has recanted so far that he overestimated and looks for a correction, possibly in January, or at least the 2nd half of 2010. PNF charts do not give Time targets.

Here are the Wyckoff Selling Tests:
1) Target has not been reached
2) There is some Volume confirmation of weakness on Up moves, but no-
3) Buying Climax, or heavy Volume blowoff
4) RS, or Relative Strength is not an issue here, since it IS the market
5) The rising bottoms Trendline has not been violated
6&7) Lower highs and lower lows have not been observed in this sideways consolidation since mid-October or mid-November.
8) A Crown top may be forming, but it seems early on - possibly a UTAD (upthrust after Distribution) is currently ongoing.
9) Finally, a 3:1 P/L ratio is not an issue here.

Sentiment table:
MktSentiment Last Week
Prev. Week 5 Year HI 5 Year LOW
DJIA:10520
10328
14093
6626
Nasdaq:
2285
2211
2805
1114
S&P 500:
1126
1102
1561
683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 58
66
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX:
19.5
21.7
90
8.8
McClellan Osc:59
7
108
-100
McClellan Sum:
757
596
1568
-1514
           Newsletter Surveys




InvestorsIntel.Bull:
52.2
52.2
63
22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
16.7
16.7
54.4
16
AAII Bull:
37.7
42.1
n/an/a
AAII Bear:
37.7
28.4
n/a
n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:
0.67
0.56
2.2
0.56
Mutual Fund Flows:1 week delay
n/a
-1.2B


Money Market Flows
2.59B
-.5B

ETF equity:Monthly Totals
Nov.738B
Oct.591B


Baltic Dry Index:3258
3258
11700
663
Bullish %:
77
75buy
88
2
Insider Corporate Sellers:
28:1
28:1
108:1
2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark

Monday, December 21, 2009

ANTI-"CLIMATIC": SOMETHING ROTTEN IN DENMARK-

After spewing around 55,000 tons of carbon emissions from planes, trains and limos to get to the HAMLET in Denmark, world leaders resolved nothing concrete. What are they smoking (or snuffing) in Copenhagen? Apparently it was so COLD there the demonstrators had to abandon their posts.

Meanwhile, Fareed Zakaria's Sunday CNN guest, Nathan Myrhvold posits that the CO2 is already up there, if we spend Trillions to even eliminate further emissions letting the emerging countries run amok, it would be more feasible to raise a hose 17 miles into the air via a helium balloon, and spew fire-hydrant amounts of sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere neutralizing the existing and future emissions - works for me.

Since cars produce less carbon monoxide than the planet's cows, they now also want to bundle up the manure in plastic to reduce it - my solution would be to feed the cows BEANO. Then we can work on the hot air from Wash.DC.

And now to a commercial: This weekend I gave a talk on my zero-rate alternative investment strategy to a group, this being a covered call stock plan that has YTD yielded high double-digit returns, along with a safety-net cushion against normal stock declines. For the lecture notes and charts, readers can contact me at:

leonbrnt@aol.com

As of January I am starting an inexpensive e-mail advisory service, hand-feeding Buy/Write trades, as well as monitoring them weekly for declines or stock call-aways. In my view it is lower in risk than Index funds or stock investing, for the Trillions that are now receiving an "extended" rate near zero %.

No major surprises this week, despite Quadruple-witching expiry: Volume and breadth (New Highs/Lows) were strong, boding well for the near future; money market funds Decreased (see commercial) by a huge $51B. Still, per Barron's, $11B came out of Equity funds in '09 while $357B went in Bonds - total ETFs increased $50B last month, up 7.3%

Here are the Sentiment numbers for the week:

MktSentiment
Last Week
Prev. Week
5 Year HI
5 Year Low
DJIA:
10328
10471
14093
6626
Nasdaq:
2211
2190
2805
1114
S&P 500:
1102
1106
1561
683
CBOE Eq. put/call:
66
62
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX:
21.7
21.6
90
8.8
McClellan Osc:
7
21
108
-100
McClellan Sum:
596
496
1568
-1514
           Newsletter Surveys




InvestorsIntel.Bull:
52.2
48.4
63
22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
16.7
16.5
54.4
16
AAII Bull:
42.1
42.7
n/a
n/a
AAII Bear:
28.4
35.4
n/a
n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:
0.56
0.55
2.2
0.56
Mutual Fund Flows(1 wk delay)
n/a
6B


Money Market Flows
-51B
-.4B


ETFequity:MonthlyTotals
Oct.591B
Sep.$580B


Baltic Dry Index:
3258
3579
11700
663
Bullish %:
75buy
72
88
2
Insider Corporate Sellers:
28:1
43:1
108:1
2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark

Monday, December 14, 2009

HOLY GUACAMOLE (WHACK-A-MOLE):

Comparisons are often made between an amateur poker player sitting in on the World Series of Poker, and the average investor trying to compete with institutional traders using black boxes, flash trading and dark pools - add to that government intervention just when a trend is recognized; and it often spells disaster these days. Technical tools, including Sentiment, can help, but lately they haven't told much, with the end of the year portfolio-squaring in sight.

The market and breadth continue to act strong, as Trillions of $$ remain in low-returning investments- still, warning signs appear on the horizon: the Bullish % is down 5 points from its high at 72, a SELL signal; the Investors' Intelligence Bears are at a 5-year low of 16.5 (complacent); and this week's Insider Selling jumped to 43 to 1 over Buying - Holiday shopping, no doubt!

Note: Investors who are "FED" up with Bernanke's zero interest rate policy for an extended period, might want to look into a simple, low-risk stock market strategy that has been returning annualized double-digit results so far this year, with an added safety net.

I have been giving talks on this dividend/covered call plan in the Bay Area (a reprise this Saturday at the SF Options group), and would be happy to share the lecture notes and results with anyone by responding to : leonbrnt@aol.com.

For those who have already inquired and do not feel confident about selecting and monitoring these intermediate term positions, I am offering a fee-based service on a quarterly basis, until the training wheels are ready to come off. It includes weekly Buy/Write (as needed) selections, and the monitoring of expired or called-away positions ( also possible downdrafts).

This is based on 25 years of professional and private experience and 5 years teaching a similarly run Cyber-class at Golden Gate Univ. using e-mail communications, with phone calls if urgent action is required.


Here are the Sentiment numbers:

MktSentiment Last Week
Prev. Week5 Year High5 Year Low
DJIA:10471
10388
14093
6626
Nasdaq:
2190
2194
2805
1114
S&P 500:
1106
1105
1561
683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 62
61
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX:
21.6
21.3
90
8.8
McClellan Osc:21
23
108
-100
McClellan Sum:
496
444
1568
-1514
           Newsletter Surveys




InvestorsIntel.Bull:
48.4
50.0
63
22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
16.5
16.7
54.4
16
AAII Bull:
42.7
41.6
n/an/a
AAII Bear:
35.4
33.7
n/a
n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:
0.55
0.56
2.2
0.56
Mutual Fund Flows:
n/a
7.1B


Money Market Flows
-.4B
-8.4B

ETF equity:Monthly Totals
Oct.591B
Sep.$580B

Baltic Dry Index:3579
4107
11700
663
Bullish %:
72
74
88
2
Insider Corporate Sellers:
43:1
26:1
108:1
2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark

Monday, December 7, 2009

HAVE YOU ANY "INTEREST" ?:

For most of 2009 I have been developing an alternative strategy to the Zero Interest Rate policy that Fed Chairman Bernanke is implementing "for an extended period", penalizing the prudent investor used to Treasurys, CDs, etc., and driving them into riskier investment "bubbles". Briefly, this strategy involves exposure in the stock market with a safety net and additional return derived from In-The-Money covered calls on quality stocks with 3% dividends or greater, approaching a total double-digit return while providing some safety for the individual stock or market well below the current prices.

I will be reprising my initial talk to the SF Options group this month - December 19. Anyone wishing a copy of the presentation can e-mail me at: leonbrnt@aol.com.
Meanwhile, the Sentiment picture appears mixed, with NYSE new highs over 500 and downturns being met with buyers; on the downside, the Inv.Intell. Bears dropped to a record low of 16 (June of 2003), and mutual fund investors are abandoning stocks for bonds.

Here are the numbers:


MktSentiment
Last Week
Prev. Week
5 Year Hi
5 Year Low
DJIA:
10388
10309
14093
6626
Nasdaq:
2194
2138
2126
1114
S&P 500:
1105
1091
1561
683
CBOE Eq. put/call:
61
58
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX:
21.3
24.7
90
8.8
McClellan Osc:
23
-28
108
-100
McClellan Sum:
444
393
1568
-1514
           Newsletter Surveys




InvestorsIntel.Bull:
50.0
50.6
63
22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
16.7
17.6
54.4
16
AAII Bull:
41.6
41.7
n/a
n/a
AAII Bear:
33.7
31.8
n/a
n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:
0.56
0.70
2.2
0.56
Mutual Fund Flows:
n/a
-.9B


Money Market Flows
-8.4B
-7.8B


ETF equity:Monthly Totals
Oct.691B
Sep.$580B


Baltic Dry Index:
4107
3974
11700
663
Bullish %:
74
76
88
2
Insider Corporate Sellers:
26:1
26:1
108:1
2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark

Monday, November 30, 2009

DUE-BYE…KLUNK:

Yet another bubble of excess falls off a cliff - we'll know in the fullness of time what effect Dubai will have on the precarious global picture. Meanwhile Klunkers for Kars expires today -222,000 turned in, helping the sales numbers. Dow Theorists may observe that the Transports have put in a Head & Shoulder Top, in a divergence from the Industrials.

Although the AAII has the Bulls and Bears tied last week at 41.7, the I.I. (Inv.Intell.) has a huge spread of 50.6 to 17.6- Conventional wisdom is that the zugzwang of forced performance by money managers will carry us through '09; after the Dubai shocker, little was changed on the Holiday week, except lower Volume.

MktSentiment
Last Week Prev. Week 5 Year Hi 5 Year Low
DJIA:
10309
10318
14093
6626
Nasdaq:
2138
2146
2126
1114
S&P 500:
1091
1091
1561
683
CBOE Eq. put/call:
58
64
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX:
24.7
22.2
90
8.8
McClellan Osc:
-28
-29
108
-100
McClellan Sum:
393
414
1568
-1514
Newsletter Surveys




InvestorsIntel.Bull:
50.6
46.1
63
22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
17.6
21.3
54.4
16
AAII Bull:
41.7
42.7
n/a
n/a
AAII Bear:
41.7
31.8
n/a
n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:
0.70
0.64
2.2
0.56
Mutual Fund Flows:
n/a
1.6B


Money Market Flows
-7.8B
3.7B


ETF equity:Monthly Totals
Oct.691B
Sep.$580B


Baltic Dry Index:
3974
4507
11700
663
Bullish %:
77
76
88
2
Insider Corporate Sellers:
26:1
31:1
108:1
2.4:1
VIX Volatility:
-63
-62
12
-70
VIX 1-month Future:
-61
-62
2
-59
VIX 5-month Future:
-19
-21
8
-23

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark

Monday, November 23, 2009

PARALLEL UNIVERSE:

John Mendelson, the former Chief Technical Analyst at Schwab, used to reiterate: Watch what they DO, not what they SAY! According to the talking heads on TV, echoing gov't positivity, Retail Sales and Income are rising nicely. John Mauldin, in his newsletter, wonders why there are no concomitant increases in Sales Taxes and State Income Taxes!

Meanwhile the trends continue in zugzwang (forced) fashion for the markets and gold, while the dollar keeps slip sliding away. Although the OTC market seems weaker, the new lows are declining actually more than the NYSE;  all else seems to be in Holiday limbo, except for the number of Bears declining in newsletters and CEO/Insider Selling has picked up even more.

Here are the stats:


MktSentiment
Last Week
Prev. Week
5 Year HI
5 Year LOW
DJIA:
10318
10270
14093
6626
Nasdaq:
2167
2146
2126
1114
S&P 500:
1091
1093
1561
683
CBOE Eq. put/call:
64
57
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX:
22.2
23.4
90
8.8
McClellan Osc:
-29
5
108
-100
McClellan Sum:
414
396
1568
-1514
Newsletter Surveys




InvestorsIntel.Bull:
46.1
44.4
63
22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
21.3
26.7
54.4
16
AAII Bull:
42.7
38.6
n/a
n/a
AAII Bear:
31.8
38.6
n/a
n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:
0.64
0.53
2.2
0.56
Mutual Fund Flows:
n/a
8.4B


Money Market Flows
-3.68B
3.7B


ETF Equity:Monthly Totals
598B
567B


Baltic Dry Index:
4507
4111
11700
663
Bullish %:
77
76
88
2
Insider Corporate Sellers:
31:1
23:1
108:1
2.4:1
VIX Volatility:
-62
-68
12
-70
VIX 1-month Future:
-62
-60
2
-59
VIX 5-month Future:
-21
-22
8
-23

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark

Monday, November 16, 2009

TRISKAIDECAPHOBIA:

Another Friday the 13th passes harmlessly, as did a very interesting TSAA Annual Seminar at Golden Gate Univ., especially for those interested in options, with several seasoned veterans holding forth - Jon Najarian, Rick Ackerman, Tim Knight, Charles Cottle, and a webinar by Dan Sullivan, et.al.

Over 100 attendees sat and listened for 9 hours to various software programs, strategies, etc.

The market continues its upward march fueled by corporate cash not wanting to invest in capital or dividends, 8% cash in bond MMFs, and hedgehogs and other money managers not wanting to show absence in this roaring bull.

Most indicators are mid-range, while the Baltic Dry Index broke a 4-handle for the first time in awhile. The AAII made a quantum shift to dead even Bulls/Bears.

Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment
Last Week
Prev. Week
5 Yr Hi
5 Yr Low
DJIA:
10270
10023
14093
6626
Nasdaq:
2167
2112
2126
1114
S&P 500:
1093
1069
1561
683
CBOE Eq. put/call:
57
67
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX:
23.4
24.2
90
8.8
McClellan Osc:
5
-13
108
-100
McClellan Sum:
396
363
1568
-1514
Newsletter Surveys




InvestorsIntel.Bull:
44.4
48.3
63
22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
26.7
24.7
54.4
16
AAII Bull:
33.7
22.2
n/a
n/a
AAII Bear:
42.3
55.6
n/a
n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:
0.53
0.52
2.2
0.56
Mutual Fund Flows:
-4.7B
Money Market Flows
-3.68B
-3B
ETF Flows: Monthly Totals
Sep 580B
Aug 657B
Baltic Dry Index:
4111
3393
11700
663
Bullish %:
76
73
88
2
Insider Corporate Sellers:
23:1
14:1
108:1
2.4:1
VIX Volatility:
-50
-65
12
-70
VIX 1-month Future:
-45
-59
2
-59
VIX 5-month Future:
-20
-23
8
-23

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark

Monday, November 9, 2009

TSAA'S PUBLIC "OPTION":

This Saturday the TSAA of San Francisco is presenting its Annual Seminar with the theme of Options, and some of the brightest stars in the field, including Jon Najarian (Dr. J), Tim Knight, Dan Sheridan, et.al. Over 100 are expected, due to membership discounts, great food, Continuing Educ. credits, etc.

More info can be found at tsaasf.org.

Markets seem to be blowing bubbles again with this constant liquidity - the Greenspan put vs. the Taylor Rule from the Fed. My personal guess is that the Obama gov't cut a deal with the big banks to give them their money if they promised no exogenous shocks to the market, usually occurring in Sept. Oct.

Sentiment would dictate that the dollar is way oversold (90% bears), inflows into ETFs such as Brazil (up 100%), and Gold (GLD has more physical gold than all but 4 of the Central Banks!). The UUP, which rises on a strong Dollar, has huge open interest and volume in Nov. and Dec.

Indicators are swinging wildly this week - the McClellan Oscillator came back from a deep minus 100 to -13;  AAII Bulls are only 22% while the Bears are over 55%.

Finally, the Rydex Nova/Ursa  ratio dropped 30 basis points from a Bearish 0.81 to .52

MktSentiment Last Week Prev. Week 5 Year HI 5 Year LOW
DJIA: 10023 9712 14093 6626
Nasdaq: 2112 2045 2126 1114
S&P 500: 1069 1036 1561 683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 67 66 96-10/08 46-1/03
VIX: 24.2 30.7 90 8.8
McClellan Osc: -13 -100 108 -100
McClellan Sum: 363 593 1568 -1514
Newsletter Surveys
Investors Intel.
Bull:
48.3 48.3 63 22.21
Bear:
24.7 22.5 54.4 16
AAII
Bull:
22.2 33.7 n/a n/a
Bear:
55.6 42.3 n/a n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds: 0.52 0.81 2.2 0.56
Baltic Dry Index: 3393 3013 11700 663
Bullish %:
73 74 88 2
Insider Corporate Sellers: 14:1 24:1 108:1 2.4:1
VIX Volatility: -65 -50 12 -70
VIX 1-month Future: -59 -45 2 -59
VIX 5-month Future: -23 -20 8 -23

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark

Monday, November 2, 2009

"FOLLY" BERGIERE:

This stock market has more "LEGS" than the FOX Channel!

After a wild end to October (since 70% of market Volume is now HFTs, or High Frequency Traders), we resume upwards in Nov. The McClellan Oscillator at -100 was the first clue, in the Sentiment mix. VIX upward spikes around the first of the month have been the norm since the March rally started.

Investment newsletters are mixed with the Inv. Intell. Bullish on the market, while the AAII is inverted (Bears over Bulls) and Bullish FOR the market.

Both Equity mutual fund and money market fund flows have been slightly negative recently. Longer term, the Nova/Ursa ratio of long/short is more negative FOR the market, as is CEO Insider Selling at 24:1.

See numbers in box to the left under Recent Posts -Weekly Numbers:


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark

Weekly Numbers:

MktSentiment
Last Week
Prev. Week
5 Year HI
5 Year LOW





DJIA:
9712
9972
14093
6626
Nasdaq:

2045
2154
2126
1114
S&P 500:

1036
1079
1561
683
CBOE Eq. put/call:
66
61
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX:

30.7
22.3
90
8.8
McClellan Osc:
-100
-49
108
-100
McClellan Sum:

593
1032
1568
-1514
Newsletter Surveys




Investors Intel.




Bull:

48.3
49.5
63
22.21
Bear:

22.5
23.1
54.4
16
AAII




Bull:
33.7
40.5
n/a
n/a
Bear:
42.3
33.8
n/a
n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:

0.81
0.63
2.2
0.56
Baltic Dry Index:
3013
3043
11700
663
Bullish %:
74
84
88
2
Insider Corporate Sellers:
24:1
22:1
108:1
2.4:1
1-YEAR %:




VIX Volatility:

-50
-70

-22.00
VIX 1-month Future:

-45
-58

-18.00
VIX 5-month Future:
-20
-22

-7






With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark

Monday, October 26, 2009

HALLOWE'EN , PART TWO:

Today's Sentiment posting is in 2 parts, as the new system requires special handling - so here is the commentary for Oct.26:
The stock market has more legs than the Fox Channel, despite today's month-end profit-taking. Although most all foreign money is going into bonds (Treasurys, GSEs, etc.) Trillions are still looking for a home above zero percent, especially with the safety that the U.S. provides.
According to the latest JP Morgan Quarterly booklet in the 4 great Recessions the past century with consecutive declines in the market, all saw highdouble-digit or triple-digit returns following the trough: 
Great Depression - down 71%, up 148%
WWII - down 34%, up 100%
1974 Oil Crisis - down 42%, up 57%
Internet Bubble - down 42%, up 67% into 2007
Breadth remains huge,with New Highs outnumbering New Lows on the NYSE 713 to 8!
CEO Insider Selling remains worrisome at 22:1 and the Investors Intelligence Bulls are complacently high at 49; yet the McClellan Oscillator is at its support level of -50.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark

HALLOWE'EN:


MktSentiment
Last Week
Prev. Week
5 Year HI
5 Year LOW





DJIA:
9972
9995
14093
6626
Nasdaq:

2154
2156
2126
1114
S&P 500:

1079
1087
1561
683
CBOE Eq. put/call:
61
51
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX:

22.3
21.4
90
8.8
McClellan Osc:
-49
-16
108
-100
McClellan Sum:

1032
1154
1568
-1514
Newsletter Surveys




Investors Intel.




Bull:

49.5
47.2
63
22.21
Bear:

23.1
26.4
54.4
16
AAII




Bull:
40.5
47.3
n/a
n/a
Bear:
35.7
33.8
n/a
n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:

0.63
0.74
2.2
0.56
Baltic Dry Index:
3043
2728
11700
663
Bullish %:
84
84
88
2
Insider Corporate Sellers:
22:1
23:1
108:1
2.4:1
1-YEAR %:




VIX Volatility:

-70


-22.00
VIX 1-month Future:

-58


-18.00
VIX 5-month Future:
-22


-7

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark

Monday, October 19, 2009

Market ZUGZWANG - Or Forced Move (chess term):

Amongst a rather tepid list of Indicators last week, with the VIX at a new recent low and the Bullish % still overbought, the only extremes were a bullish breadth number - the NYSE New Highs at 802 vs. only 6 NLs; the other extreme was, not so much the rise in Insider Selling, from 13:1 to 23:1, but strangely, the number of key officers buying company stock in the Financials, 3/4 of the total buying of all 10 sectors.

MktSentiment.           10/16/2009  Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA  ……….           9995…………9865.………..14093............6626
Nasdaq……….         2156…………2139…………2810.............1114
S&P500……..           1087…………1076………….1561………..683
CBOE Eq.
..put/call...............................51………….52……..……96….....46                                   
VIX     ……….           21.4…………..23.1…….…….90…….….8.8
McClellan Osc………-16……………..7…………..108……..(-100) McClelSum…………..1154………..1160………..…....1568-....-1514
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -
Bull:………………….n/a…………n/a.. ………….…63 ……...22.2l
Bear:…………           .n/a………….n/a……..……… 54.4….......16
AAII-Bull……………47.3…..........35.1
……Bear ………….…33.8……….41.2
Nova/Ursa
MutualFunds………0.74…………0.74…………….2.2……..0.56
Baltic Dry
Index                 ……2728………..2695………….11700………663                      
Bullish%-       …….…84…………..82………….…88…….....2
*Insider corporate
 sellers.   ……..           23:1……….13:1……………108:1…….2.4:1
Mutual Fund Inflows .. n/a

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.
Readers can request being added to an e-mail distribution list alert by sending address to leonbrnt@aol.com without fear of selling their names to spammers or contracting viruses.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Weekly results October 13:

Below are this week's Sentiment numbers, after the Holiday and return from vacation:






MktSentiment
10/13/09
Prev. Week
5Yr.HI
5Yr.LOW





DJIA
9865
9509
14093
6626
Nasdaq
2139
2057
2810
1114
S&P500
1076
1029
1561
683
CBOE Eq.:




 put/call
52
72
96
46
VIX
24.1
25.3
90
8.8
McClellan Osc
7
-68
108
-100
McClelSum
1160
1290
1568
-1514
Newsletter Surveys:




Inv.Intel:




Bull
48.3
50.6
63
22.21
Bear
23.6
24.1
54.4
16
AAII:




Bull
35.1
43.6
n/a
n/a
Bear
41.2
35.5
n/a
n/a
Nova/Ursa




MutualFunds:
0.87
1.04
2.2
0.56
Baltic Dry




Index:
2468
2415
11700
663
Bullish%-
84
81
88
2
*Insider corporate




sellers:
13:1
n/a
108:1
2.4:1
Mutual Fund Inflows
-1.9B
-1.4B


VIX. Volatility
-1
20.00
12.00
-22.00
VIX. 1-month future
-10
2.00
2.00
-18.00
VIX. 5-month future
-4
3
8
-7

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark