Monday, September 28, 2015

LUNAR TUNES

So this is why they call this time of year "FALL". First week of Autumn, Lunar equinox - Red Moon. Where's the FED when we need them now? Shorting the market?

Time to hedge the downside for stocks, or bail out crying like John Boehner. Even CalSTRS, the second biggest pension fund is selling 12% of its 55% in stocks to hedge Risk, and buy Treasurys (???). Even the best analysts are mixed in future direction: Laszlo Birinyi sees the S&P 500 - 80% of stocks- up 50% in 2 years; Sam Stoval of Standard and Poor's says a bit further down (to Support) then up.

At a TSAA (Technical Securities) Saturday at GGUniv. 50-year veteran Peter Eliades, is calling for an ugly BEAR market, with the May 21 high in the S&P 500 of 2130 a long term Cycle top. Like most cycle theory, market turns (up or down) are Observable but not Actionable with real money!!

The Sentiment table below shows some changes on Indicators that have not been too reliable recently - Commodity Traders, etc. Last week shows indecision in the newsletter surveys; Insider trading picked up again, after a hiatus recently: from single digit selling (to 1 buyer) up to 50:1. Money Market cash reversed again into buying. Finally, Breadth (advances over declines, new highs over new lows) reversed week over week bigtime.
Here are the numbers.

Date> 9/25/2015 9/18/2015
Indices: DJIA  16314 16384
  NAZ  4686 4827
SPX  1931 1958
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. n/a 9.6/5.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish n/a 1.63
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  72 81
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 23.6 22.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1057/2179 1771/1459
Weekly Net: -1122 312
     Cumulative: 158274 159396
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 53/453 73/260
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 94/347 143/191
McClellan  Oscillator -10 28
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -365 -377
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 26 26.8
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 30.2 26.8
Wed. AAII  -Bull  32.1 33.3
Bear  28.7 29.1
US$-WSJ 88.9 87.9
CEOinsider selling .50:1        .7:1
3-box rev Bullish%-    43
US equity -ICI Fund Flows week delay  (3.2B)
MMF flows Change in $B 14B (16.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  473B AUG.
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1275/509/321 JULY
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.70% 0.69%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 110.1 111.2

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark

Monday, September 21, 2015

AUTUMN "LEAVES"

Autumn is here - the worst part of the Stock market Annual cycle, which I've (TM) called JASON - July through November. Over several decades the difference is humungous between the two semi-annual cycles, with November-May up big and its complement period actually Negative. So I try to stay out of any new market positions (the trade used to be in Bonds for 6 months).Now I just Hedge what I have.

Technician Alert: this Wednesday is named GANN Day, for W.D. Gann, who opined that the 23rd of Sept. is the Autumnal Equinox, , most frequent day for market Tops, per Barron's. Seems a little late this year.

Barron Waste: Since March of this year I've tracked over 50 of Barron's super picks !! - Exactly half are down so far, with major moves also equal both ways - the S&P 500 is down only 30 points from March, despite current correction. Can you say "Dartboard?"

Sentiment-wise: Very few extremes in my Indicators, despite the Volatility (VIX); the CBOE put to call ratio is high (Bullish FOR the market) at 81; Breadth is mixed - Advance/Declining stocks slightly up, New Highs to Lows negative, with Volume high.

Newsletters of Bulls to Bears went from a rare inverted state to about equal. Insider selling is very weak, but MMFs selling (money market) is large. Next week should be stock mutual fund monthly stats.
Here are the numbers:
Date> 9/18/2015 9/11/2015
Indices: DJIA  16384 16433
NAZ  4827 4822
SPX  1958 1961
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.6/5.9 7.2/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.63 2
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  81 73
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 22.3 23.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1771/1459 1808/1409
Weekly Net: 312 399
     Cumulative: 159396 159084
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 73/260 45/217
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 143/191 95/146
McClellan  Oscillator 28 15
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -377 -522
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 26.8 25.7
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 26.8 27.9
Wed. AAII  -Bull  33.3 34.7
Bear  29.1 35.0
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 17k/(86k) 15k/(95k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (33k) (56k)
COT:OIL comm.hedg long-short. (239k) (227k)
US$-WSJ 87.9 88.3
CEOinsider selling        .7:1 .12:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s
3-box rev Bullish%-  43 36
US equity -ICI Fund Flows (3.2B) week delay 
MMF flows Change in $B (16.2B) (15.6B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  505B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1250/514/314
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.69% 0.71%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 111.2 111.0





With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark

Monday, September 14, 2015

CONTRARIAN WEEK

This week's Sentiment Standouts are about caution from the weaker hands in the stock market:
Both Bull/Bear surveys that we follow reversed last week - the Investors' Intelligence and AAII- to slightly in the Bears favor. Also, the S&P 500 Futures traders saw Large Traders long 15k; Small ones short 95k contracts - more than last week. Per Barron's, Short Interest on the NYSE jumped 5%, although the SPY ETF leapt 20% in its short interest.
Money continues to flow out of both MMFs and equity mutual funds. Here are the numbers:

Date> 9/11/2015 9/4/2015
Indices: DJIA  16433 16102
  NAZ  4822 4683
SPX  1961 1921
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 7.2/3.6 9.3/5.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2 1.82
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  73 73
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 23.2 27.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1808/1409 857/2373
Weekly Net: 399 -1516
     Cumulative: 159084 158685
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 45/217 25/227
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 95/146 54/164
McClellan  Oscillator 15 0
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -522 -583
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 25.7 27.8
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 27.9 26.8
Wed. AAII  -Bull  34.7 32.4
Bear  35.0 31.7
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 15k/(95k) 10k/(75k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (56k) (69k)
COT:OIL comm.hedg long-short. (227k) (219k)
US$-WSJ 88.3 89.0
CEOinsider selling .12:1        .9:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s discont.
3-box rev Bullish%-  36 38
US equity -ICI Fund Flows week delay  1.8B
MMF flows Change in $B (15.6B) (16.1B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  487B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1275/509/321
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.71% 0.71%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 111.0 110.9

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark

Monday, September 7, 2015

WHY I LOVE HOLIDAYS

Because the market cannot go down!!
According to what I read from my favorite research sources - Bespoke, Sam Stovall of S&P IQ, Dave Rosenberg - we are not through with the market correction - the first one in 4 years. Historically, it could last @ 3 more weeks, or through September, based on studies of corrections back to 1926.
The good news is that when Sept.1 was down more than 1%, the remaining drop was @2% - when August was also down (as it was this year), it is more like a 4% drop. Worst case is just below 15,000  on the DJIA 30, or 20% from its highs.
Two things are troubling - market Breadth - advancing and declining stocks, new highs, etc. crashed down recently to the 5th Standard Deviation (around 98%) for the first time since I was two years old!!
Also, per 60 Minutes report Int'l hacking is getting extreme, to where we could expect a shutdown of the Utility and/or Financial grids from foreign hackers.

Last week's New Highs over Lows was almost 10 to 1, actually an improvement from the previous week of only 18 versus 1456! MMF flows (money markets) reversed to withdrawals from increases; stock mutual funds are still experiencing withdrawals as well.

S&P futures Large traders (smart money (??) was plus 10k, while small traders were shorting 75k, a huge number. Also dramatic, for what it is worth, is CEO Insider Selling of their corporate stock - 3 to 1 over buyers; usually it is in the 30-40:1 range - it was 180:1 sellers in July!

For the numbers go to mktsentiment.blogspot.com

Here are the numbers:

Date> 9/4/2015 8/28/2015
Indices: DJIA  16102 16643
  NAZ  4683 4828
SPX  1921 1988
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.3/5.1 12.9/6.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.82 1.98
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  73 78
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 27.8 26.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 857/2373 1584/1678
Weekly Net: -1516 -94
     Cumulative: 158685 160201
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 25/227 18/1456
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 54/164 57/903
McClellan  Oscillator 0 21
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -583 -612
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 27.8 31.6
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 26.8 22.5
Wed. AAII  -Bull  32.4 32.5
Bear  31.7 38.3
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 10k/(75k) 10k/(56k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (69k) (62k)
COT:OIL comm.hedg long-short. (219k) 215
US$-WSJ 89.0 88.5
CEOinsider selling        .9:1 .3:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s discont.
3-box rev Bullish%-  38 31
US equity -ICI Fund Flows weekDelay (9.8B)
MMF flows Change in $B (16.1B) 9.0B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  487B JULY
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1275/509/321 JULY
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.71% 0.72%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 110.9 111.7

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark

Tuesday, September 1, 2015

COMCAST DOWN ALL DAY

No TV, Internet, phone all day on Monday.
Notable Sentiment standouts for last week: higher Volume, superlow Insider Selling to Buying - 3 to 1, lowest in several years. Whatever that means!!
New highs and lows also near record levels of only 18 highs, 1,456 lows - see below:

Date> 8/28/2015 8/21/2015
Indices: DJIA  16643 16459
  NAZ  4828 4706
SPX  1988 1970
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 12.9/6.5 9.6/4.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.98 2.13
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  78 84
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 26.1 28
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1584/1678 384/2878
Weekly Net: -94 -2494
     Cumulative: 160201 160295
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 18/1456 143/697
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 57/903 153/468
McClellan  Oscillator 21 -71
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -612 -392
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 31.6 37.7
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 22.5 18.4
Wed. AAII  -Bull  32.5 26.8
Bear  38.3 33.3
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 10k/(56k) 13k/(33k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (62k) (30k)
COT:OIL comm.hedg long-short. 215 (214k)
US$-WSJ 88.5 87.8
CEOinsider selling .3:1 .15:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s discont.
3-box rev Bullish%-  31 44
US equity -ICI Fund Flows weekDelay (5.2B)
MMF flows Change in $B 9.0B 11.0B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  487B 505B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1275/509/321 1250/514/314
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.72% 0.62%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 111.7 112.2

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark