Monday, January 25, 2010

4 DAYS AWAY:

My friend and colleague, Prof. Charles Bassetti likes to cite the 4 days away trend - if an up or down move is 4 days in one direction, it is usually going to last much longer. Looking at the S&P500 over the past several months, that is certainly the case, as it was last week.  Although today's rally is a bit underwhelming, it did stop the descent at 3 days - time will tell if the 5% correction was enough. Pete Najarian also mentioned the fact that a/o January expiration a whole lot of LEAP puts (including mine) expired.

Extremes last week include the VIX, which leapt up 10 points, from 17 to 27 on the violent downswing of the markets; the CBOE put/call went to an extended 68 - also Bullish for the market was the McClellan Oscillator, falling to -79; and MMF flows were hugely negative.

Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment Last Week
Prev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
DJIA:10172
10609
14093
6626
Nasdaq:
2205
2288
2805
1114
S&P 500:
1091
1136
1561
683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 68
56
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX:
27.3
17.9
90
8.8
McClellan Osc:-79
-10
108
-100
McClellan Sum:
930
1064
1568
-1514
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InvestorsIntel.Bull:
52.2
53.4
63
22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
18.9
15.9
54.4
16
AAII Bull:
40.0
47.4
n/an/a
AAII Bear:
34.7
26.9
n/a
n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:
0.79
0.73
2.2
0.56
US Equity Flows
1 week lag
2.2B


Money Market Flows
-46.0B
-21.7B


ETF equity:Monthly Totals
Nov 738B
Oct 591B


Baltic Dry Index:3170
3235
11700
663
Bullish %:
88
83
88
2
Insider Corporate Sellers:
14:1
38:1
108:1
2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, January 18, 2010

PRING IS HERE!:

This past weekend Martin Pring and partner Joe Turner ( former President of the TSAA technical securities group) held a 3+ hour investment meeting at Golden Gate Univ.in San Francisco which was probably the most comprehensive, actionable presentation given anywhere for a number of years. Found at www.pringturner.com website, this presentation, called the Lost Decade, compares our past and future decades to the failed 20-year Japanese market - economically and securities-wise.

The upshot was that Treasuries, especially 20-year and Intermediates 7-10 could start tanking any day (with yields breaking out to the upside), Industrial Commodities should be the asset class of choice, with stocks heading higher (after a correction) for the near future.
The ongoing imbroglio that I helped start by my seeking Barron's Michael Santoli's views on gov't intervention into the stock market (why not? They are everywhere else lately) resulted in a sharp refutation of a "conspiracy theory" by him. This even continues in his column this weekend. Trimtabs' Charles Biderman, who is the master of liquidity flows (for many of the hedge funds, etc.) opined that much of the March stock market rally was due to aftermarket futures trading by the gov't/ which, as with Bernanke, could cause all sorts of problems if the "stimulus" is stopped or removed. True or not, it does make sense that it is one of the few things that they can control with a Plunge Protection Team, alive since well before the 21st C. Employment and healthcare aren't going too well, The fullness of time will tell!

Back to sentiment - the option expiration week (which I call exasperation week) saw a volatile week with innumerable Sell indications -although they haven't dropped the market to date (conspiracy again). The Inv.Intell.Bulls hit a high of 53%, not seen since Oct. '07 (a day that will last.....)

Breadth and sentiment are shown overbought by Bullish % at 83, Nova/Ursa funds at 0.73, and Insider selling at 38:1, down from its recent highs. My cumulative Adv./Decl. is at an alltime high, and new highs to lows on the NYSE was 810 to 3.

Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment
Last Week
Prev. Week
5 Yr HI
5 Yr LOW
DJIA:
10609
10618
14093
6626
Nasdaq:
2288
2317
2805
1114
S&P 500:
1136
1145
1561
683
CBOE Eq. put/call:
56
52
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX:
17.9
18.1
90
8.8
McClellan Osc:
-10
33
108
-100
McClellan Sum:
1064
1008
1568
-1514
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InvestorsIntel.Bull:
53.4
48.3
63
22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
15.9
16.9
54.4
16
AAII Bull:
47.4
41.0
n/a
n/a
AAII Bear:
26.9
26.0
n/a
n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:
0.73
0.75
2.2
0.56
Mutual Fund Flows:1 wk delay
n/a
-.7B


Money Market Flows
-21.7B
14B


ETF equity:Monthly Totals
Nov 738B
Oct 591B


Baltic Dry Index:
3235
3149
11700
663
Bullish %:
83
82
88
2
Insider Corporate Sellers:
38:1
58:1
108:1
2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, January 11, 2010

DEUS EX MACHINA:

Over the past few months I have noted in this blog that several indicators have gone to extremes, without any apparent resulting reaction; I have also noted that the normal Fall corrections - lousy September, October crashettes, etc.- have also been absent.

One possible explanation has surfaced, from a Smart Money article by the esteemed TrimTabs writer of institutional money flows-Charles Biderman of Santa Rosa: Over the past year, $600B has gone into the market, creating (in a 10:1 leverage ratio) $6T in new stock market cap since March. This source of this amount that is unaccounted for can most likely be attributed to the U.S. Government purchasing stock index futures, not as speculation, but as a support when futures indicate weakness - thereby preventing a shock to the financial system. Like supporting the Treasury market it is legal, but irregular. The question is, as with the Stimulus, is what happens when the steroid injections cease?

This week, as the markets reach new recent highs, breadth is enormous, with the NYSE new highs at 858 vs. 6 new lows!

Insider selling again increased to 58:1, and both the Bullish per cent and Nova/Ursa are at high levels - Bearish for the market.

MktSentiment
Last Week
Prev. Week
5 Yr HI
5 Yr LOW
DJIA:
10618
10428
14093
6626
Nasdaq:
2317
2269
2805
1114
S&P 500:
1145
1115
1561
683
CBOE Eq. put/call:
52
61
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX:
18.1
21.7
90
8.8
McClellan Osc:
33
-1
108
-100
McClellan Sum:
1008
863
1568
-1514
       Newsletter Surveys




InvestorsIntel.Bull:
48.3
51.1
63
22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
16.9
15.6
54.4
16
AAII Bull:
49.2
49.2
n/a
n/a
AAII Bear:
23.0
23.0
n/a
n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:
0.75
0.62
2.2
0.56
Mutual Fund Flows:1 wk delay
n/a
3B


Money Market Flows
14B
22B


ETF equity:Monthly Totals
Nov 738B
Oct 591B


Baltic Dry Index:
3149
3005
11700
663
Bullish %:
82
79
88
2
Insider Corporate Sellers:
58:1
51:1
108:1
2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, January 4, 2010

MERRY X-MISS - NO SANTA CLAUS RALLY THIS YEAR:

Just as cycles sometimes invert (tops instead of cyclic lows), 2009 was a Contrarian's dream: no bad Sept., no October Crash, etc. - so many talking heads with egg on their faces. Also, the Santa Claus rally, so often found between Xmas and New Year's Eve, failed to materialize as well.

The last week understandably showed very weak Volume and breadth, except for the New Highs/Lows (only5 on the NYSE). The Bullish % is getting toppy, but still rising, at 79, on a Buy signal;   my cumulative A/D total is near a record high; Inv.Intell. Bears hit a new low of 15.6. The Burke Bulls divided by Total Bull+Bears is the worst for the market since July '07! The Insider Selling was at a recent record of 51:1 - but the last week of the year is often the silly season of book-squaring. Tune in next week!

Here is the table:

MktSentiment
Last Week
Prev. Week
5 Yr HI
5 Yr LOW
DJIA:
10428
10520
14093
6626
Nasdaq:
2269
2285
2805
1114
S&P 500:
1115
1126
1561
683
CBOE Eq. put/call:
61
58
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX:
21.7
19.5
90
8.8
McClellan Osc:
-1
59
108
-100
McClellan Sum:
863
757
1568
-1514
Newsletter Surveys




InvestorsIntel.Bull:
51.1
52.2
63
22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
15.6
16.7
54.4
16
AAII Bull:
49.2
37.7
n/a
n/a
AAII Bear:
23.0
37.7
n/a
n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:
0.62
0.67
2.2
0.56
Mutual Fund Flows:1 wk delay
n/a
3B


Money Market Flows
22B
2.59B


ETF equity:Monthly Totals
Nov 738B
Oct 591B


Baltic Dry Index:
3005
3258
11700
663
Bullish %:
79
77
88
2
Insider Corporate Sellers:
51:1
28:1
108:1
2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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