Breaking News: In today's TV interview, Charles Biderman, of TrimTabs in Santa Rosa, probably the best data analyzer next to Ned Davis and Bespoke Group, announced they were 100% in Cash, just as in early 2016. His reason is that in recent months $$ flows into equities by retail and institutions were net ZERO, so all market movers came from corporate stock Buybacks, although that has dropped as of March.
Another startling fact I observed in Barron's this weekend was the correlation (albeit small sampling of 4) between their Insider Selling peaks and the SPX tops over the past year -May, July, October, now. The Option column states that institutions bought 99,000 SPX calls to hedge VIX calls (against a market decline, and another 330,000 calls as well).
Sentiment Indicators last week showed a high and toppy Delta MSI rising stock level of 85 (same as last week) and a high Bullish%; the McClellan Summation is at a high level over 1200; and the Inv. Intell. Bull to Bear ratio is wildly Bullish, by a 24 point margin (complacency).
Whether to Sell in May or hedge and ride it out is the quandary. One way might be to do a Buy/Write on the VIX ETF - UVXY, as the Implied Volatility on the calls are Huge - 150 (lots of premium to sell)..
Here are the numbers:
|New Hi's/Low's||Nasdaq h/l||207/93||192/77|
|US equity -ICI||Fund Flows||weekLate||(4.2B)|
|MMF flows||Change in $B||10.3B||(32.9B)|
|MargDebt- top (300M)||monthly||446B|
|2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation||0.78%||0.82%|
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
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