Monday, July 24, 2017

UPDATE TIME

One of my readers last week requested that I update and explain the Sentiment Indicators I post weekly on this site. Over the past decade I have deleted and added a few. None of these Contrary Opinion numbers are actionable by themselves, but taken together can warn of speculative emotions.
The Indices are self-explanatory w/w ( week over week); Volume is Nasdaq vs. NYSE, a speculative signal; the CBOE equity Put to Call ratio and VIX are fear guides.
A new Delta MACD crossover is a bullish ( above 50) number , similar to Bullish %, or stocks on a BUY signal; Breadth is signalled by Advance/Decline, along with cumulative -now near record highs; also New Highs and Lows on the NYSE and Nasdaq.
The McClellan Oscillator ( and cum. Summation) is also a chart of advance/declines in a formula. The AAII and Investors' Intelligence Bull/Bear ratios are contrary - the I I become harder to locate recently ( I might switch back to Rydex.
Margin Debt remains HUGE, what with low rates; fund flows measure public $$, what with the ETF monster sucking up much in Index funds - some coming from Index Mutual Funds!!! Finally, the 2 and 10- year Treas. rates can be used to forecast a Recession - for over a Century we have never had a 10-year period where a Recession did not happen, and it always had an inverted Yield Curve (backwardation, not Contango) -the spread is lessening recently, as is the 3-month to 10-year TSY.
TIPs measure Inflation which at present is nonexistent.
Here are the recent numbers:

 
Date 7/21/2017 7/14/17
Indices: DJIA  21580 21637
NAZ  6387 6312
SPX  2472 2459
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 8.6/3.7 8.6/3.8
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.32 2.26
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  58 61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 9.4 9.5
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 69.9 58.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1881/1182 2174/902
Weekly Net: 699 1272
     Cumulative: 179896 179197
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 431/48 323/83
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 393/122 282/153
McClellan  Oscillator 18 29
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 727 594
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull na 50
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs na 18.6
Wed. AAII  -Bull  36 28.2
Bear  26 29.6
US$-WSJ 94 95.1
3-box rev Bullish%-  75 73
US equity -ICI Fund Flows weeklate (2.1B)
MMF flows Change in $B (9.9B) 0
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  540B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.24 2.33
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.34 1.36
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.6 113

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, July 17, 2017

DOG DAYS OF SUMMER

According to Tom Bowley of Stockcharts, for the past 20 years (1998 on) the worst 3 months of the year have been - July, Aug., and Sept. Averaging around 50% of the time being up for the month. Although we keep hitting new highs, Volume and Momentum seem to have caught the Summer malaise.
Sentiment seems to also be on Hold, with Extremes being the margin interest (down slightly from mo/mo record highs), and the Institutions (Wire house newsletters) wildly Bullish (3 : 1) , while us amateurs - AAII are dead even (Bulls and Bears. The yield Curve - 10-yr. Treas. vs. 3-month - is the lowest since 2006-8 when we had the sliding down market into the Recession.
Here are the numbers:

Date   ####### 7/7/2017
Indices: DJIA  21637 21414
  NAZ  6312 6153
SPX  2459 2425
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 8.6/3.8 6.6/3.0*
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.26 2.2
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  61 63
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 9.5 11.2
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 58.9 63.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2174/902 1418/1630
Weekly Net: 1272 -212
     Cumulative: 179197 177925
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 323/83 229/96
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 282/153 164/107
McClellan  Oscillator 29 -11
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 594 560
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 50 52.5
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 18.6 18.8
Wed. AAII  -Bull  28.2 29.6
Bear  29.6 29.9
US$-WSJ 95.1 96
3-box rev Bullish%-  73 73
US equity -ICI Fund Flows weeklate (11.6B)
MMF flows Change in $B 0 4.7B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  540B May
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.33 2.39
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.36 1.4
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113 112.4

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Saturday, July 8, 2017

SAME OLD

Not much change over the mid-week Holiday. Indices were positive, breadth negative, Volume almost halved. The TIP did break down below 113, and short term Treasury rates jumped a bit.
Bull/Bear ratios still very strong on the Bull side, as investors pour $$ into ETFs now, mostly SPY.
Great interview of Burton Malkiel on this by Consuela Mack - Wealthtrack (PBS or .com).
Question is - which ends first?: Fed propping up the markets or Index fund Inflows, propping up weak as well as strong stocks in each Index.
Here are last week's numbers:
Date   7/7/2017 6/30/2017
Indices: DJIA  21414 21349
  NAZ  6153 6140
SPX  2425 2423
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 6.6/3.0* 10.7/4.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.2 2.43
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  63 66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.2 11.2
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 63.3 61.6
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1418/1630 1688/1404
Weekly Net: -212 284
     Cumulative: 177925 178137
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 229/96 297/57
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 164/107 314/104
McClellan  Oscillator -11 0
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 560 584
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 52.5 54.9
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 18.8 18.6
Wed. AAII  -Bull  29.6 29.7
Bear  29.9 26.9
US$-WSJ 96 95.7
3-box rev Bullish%-  73 72
US equity -ICI Fund Flows weeklate  (4.4B)
MMF flows Change in $B 4.7B 4.2B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  540
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.39 2.5
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.4 1.38
TIP (ETF) Inflation 112.4 113.4

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Sunday, July 2, 2017

RECESS TIME

Stocks backed off a bit and Breadth recovered slightly; speculative Volume ratio improved (Nas over NY).  Margin Interest declined for the first time in ages. Even MMF flows improved as equities funds flowed out the prior week. Here are the results - let the fireworks begin:

Date 6/30/2017 6/23/2017
Indices: DJIA  21349 21394
NAZ  6140 6265
SPX  2423 2438
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 10.7/4.4 12.5/5.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.43 2.31
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  66 59
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.2 10
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 61.6 62.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1688/1404 1533/1556
Weekly Net: 284 -23
     Cumulative: 178137 177853
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 297/57 368/187
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 314/104 319/150
McClellan  Oscillator 0 -2
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 584 583
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull na 51.5
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs na 19.4
Wed. AAII  -Bull  na 32.7
Bear  na 28.9
US$-WSJ 95.7 97.3
3-box rev Bullish%-  72 72
US equity -ICI Fund Flows weeklate (7.9B)
MMF flows Change in $B 4.2B (16.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  540 549B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.5 2.1
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.38 1.35
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.4 114.3

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Saturday, June 24, 2017

Computer Repaired

After a brief hiatus, we're back with the Sentiment Blog:
Notables last week (ending June 23) - the continuing parity between Advances and declines:
1533/1556 1490/1581,etc. - a very minor number between Adv. and Decl.
( I guess my PC is not quite well) 
The McClellan Oscillator also minimal - from +1 to -2;
Week late but telling, the MMF outflows were HUGE, ad were Equity (stocks) inflows.
Lastly, Nasdaq Volume set a record high, as speculation is Bullish, as is the new his/los/
See Below:

Date   6/23/2017 6/16/2017
Indices: DJIA  21394 21384
  NAZ  6265 6151
SPX  2438 2433
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 12.5/5.4 11.4/5.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.31 2
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  59 69
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 10 10.4
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 62.2 63.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1533/1556 1490/1581
Weekly Net: -23 -91
     Cumulative: 177853 177876
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 368/187 350/120
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 319/150 281/157
McClellan  Oscillator -2 1
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 583 638
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 51.5 50
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 19.4 18.6
Wed. AAII  -Bull  32.7 32.3
Bear  28.9 29.5
US$-WSJ 97.3 97.1
3-box rev Bullish%-  72 70
US equity -ICI Fund Flows weeklate 19.6B
MMF flows Change in $B (16.2B) na
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  549B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.1 2.1
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.35 1.3
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114.3 113.7

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, May 15, 2017

HOW HIGH THE MOON

Markets continue to make new highs almost every day and week, despite all the global calamities from elections, firings, to rockets. In a recent excellent webinar by Option King Larry McMillan, he not only analyzes the VIX Indicator and its misuse, but opines that if the S&P 500 breaks above the May 9 closing high of 2401 and closes twice above that, the market should resume its uptrend. FANG stocks are also propelling the NASDAQ to new highs, although Inflation Adjusted, it is not quite the case.It broke 5000 in March of 2000. BTW - today's close of the SPX was 2402 !!!

Sentiment Indicators remain mostly the same except for Mutual fund flows out instead of in last week; The I.I. Bull/Bear ratio stayed at its extreme of over 3:1 (normally a dangerous complacent signal). It was also noted that the NYSE Advance/Decline breadth numbers are not the best to use, as 30% of NYSE Volume nowadays is in ETFs, plus closed end funds, preferred stocks, etc.

Here are the numbers:

Date   5/12/2017 5/5/2017
Indices: DJIA  20896 21006
  NAZ  6121 6100
SPX  2390 2399
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.6/4.1 9.9/4.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.34 2.25
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  61 66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 10.4 10.5
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 55.4 60.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1352/1626 1548/1535
Weekly Net: -274 13
     Cumulative: 176539 176813
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 325/92 427/137
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 393/200 429/196
McClellan  Oscillator -23 0
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 545 609
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 58.7 58.5
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.3 17.9
Wed. AAII  -Bull  32.7 38.1
Bear  30.2 29.9
US$-WSJ 99.2 98.6
3-box rev Bullish%-  71 71
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (4.3B)
MMF flows Change in $B (6.2B) 1.6B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  528B March
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.3 2.4
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.3 1.31
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.8 113.7



With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, May 8, 2017

M'AIDEZ (MAYDAY)

Today's stock markets were Underwhelmed by the victory in France of Macron over Le Pen. No surprise there, like Brexit and Trump. Although last week hit some new highs, markets are climbing out of Saucer formations moving into June - possibly the next rate hike. The 2-year Treas.rate picked up again into the 1.30s % while the 10-year hit 2.4%. No sign of a flat Yield curve, necessary for a Recession to occur - maybe 4-5 more hikes on the short end. Every decade has an "R", usually @ the zero year - so watch out below !

Sentiment Indicators were mixed - the Adv/Dec difference was a mere 13!, causing the McClellan Oscillator to end at the zero line; New Highs were strong, however. Margin Interest remains HUGE, as does the U S Debt, both of which will squirm when rates rise. Finally, the dollar hit a recent low, per Trump's wishes, which should help Gold.
See below:

Date   5/5/2017 4/28/2017
Indices: DJIA  21006 20940
  NAZ  6100 6047
SPX  2399 2384
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.9/4.4 9.4/4.8
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.25 1.96
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  66 65
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 10.5 10.8
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 60.3 59.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1548/1535 1901/1175
Weekly Net: 13 726
     Cumulative: 176813 176800
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 427/137 544/71
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 429/196 561/138
McClellan  Oscillator 0 8
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 609 620
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 58.5 54.7
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.9 17.9
Wed. AAII  -Bull  38.1 38.1
Bear  29.9 31.7
US$-WSJ 98.6 99.0
3-box rev Bullish%-  71 74
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 6.8B
MMF flows Change in $B 1.6B 15.4B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  March 537B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.4 2.3
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.31 1.27
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.7 115.2

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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