In another small sampling, whenever the Yield Curve flattens, i.e., the 2-year Treas yield is equal to the 10-year (due to rate hikes), we have Recessions and Bear markets, going back to 1980 (1991, 2001, and 2008). But nice rallies can precede these.
So marks the Sentiment Indicators these days. The AAII Bull/Bear survey hit a recent low (2005) of Bulls - see below-, with a decade high of Neutrals (2003) - Bullish FOR the markets. Last week saw strong Breadth, if not Volume, with the Holiday this week. $$ are still going into MMFs and out of Equity MUFs, and IPOs are slowing recent months.
Here are the numbers:
|New Hi's/Low's||Nasdaq h/l||190/106||115/212|
|US equity -ICI||Fund Flows||WeekLate||(2.7B)|
|MMF flows||Change in $B||14.2B||4.3B|
|MargDebt- top (300M)||monthly||March||446B|
|10-yr Tsy yield||hi= stock buying||1.85%||1.84%|
|2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation||0.92%||0.88%|
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
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