Monday, July 18, 2016

Till Debt Do Us Part

No one, including our Fed, seems to be concerned about the massive Debt that the country - gov't, household- even global- is increasing. This cannot end well, whether now or (worse) later. Even reliable cycles - 7 to 8  year ( count from at least 1966), or the destructive 80-year (1930s) portend disaster. Debt to GDP (production) has gone from 55% in 2000 to 110% now (a double!!).

Record low interest rates usually indicate a bad Economy, but the Stock Market roars on!
The wrong Sectors - defensive - are leading the market - Util, Finance, Health, Staples. Quarterly earnings are down for the 5th Q. 18 of the last 19 Recessions have seen the Fed tighten in some manner; they also seem to occur @ the zero year of a decade.

But Breadth is incredibly strong recently - for only the third week in 2016 (since Feb.) mutual equity funds showed Inflows, only .3B - of course ETFs have gained more this year. NYSE new highs to lows were --- 659 to 11; stocks on BUY signals are high.
For the second month in a row (third this year) Insider Selling is huge (Bearish). Each time, including also last Nov., the market sold off.

Here are the numbers:

Date>   7/15/2016 7/8/2016
Indices: DJIA  18516 18146
  NAZ  5029 4956
SPX  2161 2129
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 8.4/4.3 7.1/3.8 *
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.95 1.87
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  56 64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.7 13.2
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 67% 55%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2158/984 2073/1067
Weekly Net: 1174 1006
     Cumulative: 170845nh 169671nh
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 659/11 564/62
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 387/70 242/116
McClellan  Oscillator 33 49
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 1152 914
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 52.5 47.1
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 24.7 24.5
Wed. AAII  -Bull  36.9 31.1
Bear  24.4 26.7
US$-WSJ 96.7 96.3
3-box rev Bullish%-  72 59
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate .3B
MMF flows Change in $B (2B) (17.4B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 1.55% 1.36%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.67% 0.60%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 116.3 117.5


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, July 11, 2016

WHO'S THE PATSY?

At the table? Trying to compete with AI microsecond trading by computers, Institutions with huge databases at their disposal, hedge funds, et.al. - it looks like the small investor is! The best we can do is try to follow the Trend.
Although that trend looks appealing right now, many sage investors- Gundlach, Icahn, Soros, Druckenmiller, and now even Goldman Sachs- are calling for at least a correction @ 10%.
Last week's post-holiday rally pushed my cumulative Advance/Decline number to a record high (although the McClellan Summation is not there); the NYSE new highs to lows were @10:1;
mutual fund cash pulled a large reversal to the outflow side.
Gold and Silver have rallied a lot this year, and could benefit more from NIRP (negative interest rates) after a possible correction.

Here are the numbers:

Date>   7/8/2016 7/1/2016
Indices: DJIA  18146 17949
  NAZ  4956 4862
SPX  2129 2102
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 7.1/3.8 * 10.6/5.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.87 1.86
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  64 64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.2 14.8
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 55% 52%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2073/1067 2504/653
Weekly Net: 1006 1851
     Cumulative: 169671nh 168665
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 564/62 587/159
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 242/116 205/277
McClellan  Oscillator 49 46
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 914 815
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 47.1 41.6
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 24.5 23.8
Wed. AAII  -Bull  31.1 28.9
Bear  26.7 33.4
US$-WSJ 96.3 95.6
3-box rev Bullish%-  59 52
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (7.0B)
MMF flows Change in $B (17.4B) 14.9B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  451B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 1.36% 1.44%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.60% 0.60%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 117.5 116.8



With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Tuesday, July 5, 2016

JASON - OH, THE HORROR!

As we end the 4th of July weekend, we enter JASON in the stock market: July through November. If history be our guide, the (legal) Insider Trading chart does not bode well for this underperforming semi-annual cycle. Previous tops of high selling by corporate Insiders came in July of last year, October, and this past April.
A longer chart shows households with an above average percentage of stock holdings, which could lead to an underperforming next decade; especially after the Fed-led rally of the past one. Another negative is my new Sentiment Indicator - the Delta MSI (market sentiment) - showing just above 50% of stocks on a Buy signal (Moving Averages). This mirrors its sibling the Bullish % with the same number (see below).

Other standouts are the 2 and 10-year Treasuries yields dropping; the TIP Inflation ETF at a recent high of almost 117 (123 is the long term high); and on the Bullish case, the AAII Bears dominate the Bulls 33 to 29.
Here are the numbers:
Date>   7/1/2016 6/24/2016
Indices: DJIA  17949 17400
  NAZ  4862 4708
SPX  2102 2037
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 10.6/5.7 10.6/6.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.86 1.77
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  64 74
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14.8 25.8
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 52% 62%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2504/653 1243/1916
Weekly Net: 1851 -673
     Cumulative: 168665 166814
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 587/159 391/73
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 205/277 167/194
McClellan  Oscillator 46 -21
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 815 772
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 41.6 47.5
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 23.8 23.2
Wed. AAII  -Bull  28.9 22
Bear  33.4 35.2
US$-WSJ 95.6 95.5
3-box rev Bullish%-  52 60
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (4.2B)
MMF flows Change in $B 14.9B (3.6B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  451B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 1.44% 1.56%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.60% 0.63%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 116.8 115.8



With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, June 27, 2016

UK - The "UNTIED" KINGDOM

If you Brexit, you Own it!! And their currency got "Pound'ed" - The S F Comical likened it to Texas leaving the U.S. (Texit?). Standard and Poor's just downgraded Britain's economy from AAA to AA today - I  guess they have to go to those damn meetings again!

 Despite the whirlwind finish to  last week,  overall, it wasn't that exceptional for Sentiment. Of course the VIX (Volatility Index) jumped up 1/3, to 26, week over week. Volume was strong as well, as were Bonds and Gold, in a flight to safety. AAII Bears were still strong, a bullish sign (FOR the market).

Here are the numbers:

SPX  2037 2071
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 10.6/6.0 9.9/5.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.77 1.74
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  74 72
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 25.8 19.4
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 62% 67%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1243/1916 1164/1990
Weekly Net: -673 -826
     Cumulative: 166814 167487
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 391/73 270/83
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 167/194 145/182
McClellan  Oscillator -21 -28
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 772 783
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 47.5 45.9
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 23.2 23.5
Wed. AAII  -Bull  22 25.4
Bear  35.2 37.5
US$-WSJ 95.5 94.1
3-box rev Bullish%-  60 67
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate  (.1B)
MMF flows Change in $B (3.6B) (18.6B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 1.56% 1.61%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.63% 0.70%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 115.8 115.4


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, June 20, 2016

BREXIT OR BREMAIN?

According to the Wisdom of Crowds, the U K should exit the EU on Thursday (our Wednesday night 11 to 1?); but the seeming reversal due to the assassination , and the fact that polls got it wrong in Scotland and Canada prior times, the Brits could Bremain, probably lifting both the European and U S markets with relief. Also, fund managers' cash is at a  high level, usually Bullish as well.

My new Indicator, the Delta MSI (stocks on Buy signals from moving average crosses) is echoing the old one of Bullish % - stocks on BUY signals. After an ugly two weeks in the markets, today's rally is no surprise. MMF flows were out of Money Markets bigtime, and the AAII Bears jumped 10 points - see below:

Date>   6/17/2016 6/10/2016
Indices: DJIA  17675 17865
  NAZ  4800 4894
SPX  2071 2096
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.9/5.7 8.5/4.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.74 1.98
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  72 67
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 19.4 17
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 67% 74%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1164/1990 1576/1589
Weekly Net: -826 -13
     Cumulative: 167487 168313
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 270/83 513/37
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 145/182 255/108
McClellan  Oscillator -28 -13
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 783 990
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 45.9 47.3
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 23.5 23.8
Wed. AAII  -Bull  25.4 27.8
Bear  37.5 27.8
US$-WSJ 94.1 94.7
3-box rev Bullish%-  67 72
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (1.0B)
MMF flows Change in $B (18.6B) (5.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 1.61% 1.64%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.70% 0.73%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 115.4 115.8


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, June 13, 2016

Internet of Things

It has been my contention that at some point the exploding Internet inventions, as well as the San Francisco population will end in a Future Shock spiral (at least a course correction). Either a major earthquake in S.F., or, as Barron's points out this week, technology is getting so complex that many cannot understand or apply the myriad startups - especially when the top FANG companies are so competitive with their proprietary findings as to not become universal.

Another danger, of course, is the global NIRP which is affecting the U.S. interest rates, as foreigners buy record amounts of Treasuries - how will pensions, Social Security retirement accounts meet their 7.5% necessary profit performance in a negative world, mandating at least some Treasuries in their investment portfolios? But the stock market rolls on!!!

A Barron's editorial finds that over the past 50 years, the stock market in 20-year slices, has always gained 8 to 12%. And Tom Bowley of Stockcharts.com relates that stocks bought between the 27th of the month and the 6th of the next shows 100% of the gains!! BTW , those of us GGU alums will recognize Gatis Roze as a regular contributor...

Despite recent weakness, most Sentiment Indicators, just like the indices, are near recent Bullish levels - NYSE H/Los were 513 to 37.

Here are the numbers:
Date>   6/10/2016 6/3/2016
Indices: DJIA  17865 17807
  NAZ  4894 4942
SPX  2096 2099
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 8.5/4.3 7.3/4.3*
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.98 1.7
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  67 60
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17 13.5
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 74% 70%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1576/1589 2167/1011
Weekly Net: -13 1156
     Cumulative: 168313 168326
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 513/37 368/27
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 255/108 202/79
McClellan  Oscillator -13 30
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 990 843
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 47.3 45.4
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 23.8 23.7
Wed. AAII  -Bull  27.8 30.2
Bear  27.8 29.1
US$-WSJ 94.7 94
3-box rev Bullish%-  72 71
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (.8B)
MMF flows Change in $B (5.7B) 0
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  456B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 1.64% 1.70%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.73% 0.78%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 115.8 115.1


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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