Monday, August 29, 2016

COLUMNIST MANIFESTO

I'm thinking of becoming a columnist again (after Examiner.com, Marina Times, TSAA Review, et.al.) - it is so easy: just say The Fed is thinking of raising the interest rates, maybe in Sept, or Dec.!; Hillary and Trump are disagreeable again!!!

Despite well-meaning attempts to satisfy everyone's wellbeing with uncharted DEBT - gov't, personal, student loan, etc. the last 3 regimes have encouraged gov't misdirected spending - even George W (who thought Roe vs. Wade was how to cross the Potomac River). Pensions and retirement accounts getting zero interest cannot possibly repay beneficiaries down the line, as people live longer and the workforce dwindles. The almighty Dollar has sunk from 100 pennies to @ 6 in the past 50 years and promises to end up in wheelbarrows as the Weimar Mark did.

The current market, albeit in vacation time, is dead in the water as to direction. Last week's Sentiment Indicators are exactly like the week before. The McClellan Oscillator, due to a weaker Advance/Decline week, prompted Monday's rally, sinking almost to my minus 50  Buy signal. If it doesn't work, we are in deep trouble!

The Calm before the storm scares me - the time of year, the aforementioned Fed and Election, DEBT.
Barron's Option column notes the great complacency of low Volatility in options - a good time to get Hedged!!
Date>   8/26/2016 8/19/2016
Indices: DJIA  18395 18552
  NAZ  5218 5238
SPX  2169 2184
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 7.9/3.7 8.2/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.14 2.1
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  67 58
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.7 11.3
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 73% 73%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1413/1707 1666/1447
Weekly Net: -294 219
     Cumulative: 172310 172604
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 409/29 410/25
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 364/75 383/81
McClellan  Oscillator -35 -19
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 878 992
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 56.7 56.2
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 20.2 20
Wed. AAII  -Bull  29.4 35.6
Bear  29.6 26.4
US$-WSJ 94.7 94.5
3-box rev Bullish%-  76 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (5B)
MMF flows Change in $B 24.6 (34.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  447B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 1.63% 1.58%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.85% 0.75%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 116.5 116


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, August 22, 2016

SHOW ME THE MONEY

The annual Money Show is here in S.F. this week, but not too many recognizable names appearing. Tuesday afternoon features Arthur Laffer and Stephen Moore. My finance group - TSAA- is hosting Stephanie Kammerman today, speaking on Dark Pools (she is also at the MS.
Outside of a rare Positive money flow (albeit minor) in mutual fund $$, and a Yuge decrease in MMF $$s,  all other Indicators were about the same as the prior week - see below:

Date>   8/19/2016 8/12/2016
Indices: DJIA  18552 18576
  NAZ  5238 5232
SPX  2184 2184
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 8.2/3.9 7.9/3.8
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.1 2.08
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  58 59
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.3 11.5
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 73% 71%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1666/1447 1681/1431
Weekly Net: 219 250
     Cumulative: 172604 172385
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 410/25 551/23
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 383/81 370/99
McClellan  Oscillator -19 -12
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 992 1065
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 56.2 54.3
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 20 28.9
Wed. AAII  -Bull  35.6 31.3
Bear  26.4 26.8
US$-WSJ 94.5 95.7
3-box rev Bullish%-  76 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 3.7B
MMF flows Change in $B (34.9B) 6.0B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  447B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 1.58% 1.51%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.75% 0.70%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 116 116.3


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Wednesday, August 17, 2016

EVERYTHING IS BEAUTIFUL

All systems go in the markets these days - only the second time this century that all markets - DJIA, NAS, and SPX- hit new highs together (first time was the week before this !!). Breadth  keeps going strong - New his/lows were 551 to 23 on NYSE. Stocks on BUY signals strong, but Volume weak - a divergence. Barron's option column states 6-figure purchases of VIX calls, expecting big volatility in Sept. Strong markets usually signal incumbent party to win election.
Here are the numbers:

Date>   8/12/2016 8/5/2016
Indices: DJIA  18576 18543
  NAZ  5232 5221
SPX  2184 2182
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 7.9/3.8 9.7/4.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.08 2.2
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  59 63
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.5 11.3 yr.low
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 71% 70%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1681/1431 1624/1492
Weekly Net: 250 132
     Cumulative: 172385 172135
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 551/23 544/44
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 370/99 364/107
McClellan  Oscillator -12 -5
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 1065 1102
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 54.3 52.9
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 28.9 21.2
Wed. AAII  -Bull  31.3 29.8
Bear  26.8 26.8
US$-WSJ 95.7 96.2
3-box rev Bullish%-  76 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (6B)
MMF flows Change in $B 6.0B 24B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  JUNE:
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 1.51% 1.59%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.70% 0.73%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 116.3 115.7


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, August 8, 2016

HO HUM

It's like last week never happened in the world of Sentiment Indicators; despites some fluctuations, most remained exactly the same. The VIX dropped even lower. Possibly the Calm before the August storm???

 
Date>   8/5/2016 7/29/2016
Indices: DJIA  18543 18431
  NAZ  5221 5162
SPX  2182 2173
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.7/4.4 9.8/4.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.2 2.09
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  63 67
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.3 yr.low 11.9
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 70% 74%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1624/1492 1729/1406
Weekly Net: 132 323
     Cumulative: 172135 172003
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 544/44 603/33
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 364/107 401/89
McClellan  Oscillator -5 -4
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 1102 1228
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 52.9 53.9
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 21.2 21.6
Wed. AAII  -Bull  29.8 31.3
Bear  26.8 28.4
US$-WSJ 96.2
3-box rev Bullish%-  76 75
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (4.1B)
MMF flows Change in $B 24B 0
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  JUNE: 447B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 1.59% 1.50%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.73% 0.68%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 115.7 116.4


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, August 1, 2016

DOG DAYS OF AUGUST

August, for the past 20 years at least, has been the worst month for stocks of the 12, with Sept. not far behind. No wonder investors head for the hills or beaches. Expect Volatility.

Last week saw mixed markets - the DJIA was DOWN, the SPX (500) was FLAT, and the Nasdaq was UP! Sentiment was pretty much like last week. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Here are the numbers:

Date>   7/29/2016 7/22/2016
Indices: DJIA  18431 18570
  NAZ  5162 5100
SPX  2173 2175
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.8/4.7 8.6/3.8
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.09 2.26
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  67 63
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.9 12
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 74% 76%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1729/1406 1986/1151
Weekly Net: 323 835
     Cumulative: 172003 171680
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 603/33 510/19
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 401/89 340/90
McClellan  Oscillator -4 17
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 1228 1256
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 53.9 54.4
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 21.6 23.3
Wed. AAII  -Bull  31.3 35.4
Bear  28.4 26.7
US$-WSJ 97.4
3-box rev Bullish%-  75 74
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (8.2B)
MMF flows Change in $B 0 (5.6B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  447B JUNE
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 1.50% 1.57%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.68% 0.72%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 116.4 116.1


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, July 25, 2016

SENTIMENTAL YEARNING

As I await tomorrow, the 50th Anniversary of the Land's End Pub in San Francisco (now Soda Popinki's at 1548 California St, bet. Polk and Larkin Sts.) , owning it was probably the high point of my life   (so far !). I shall reappear @ 5 pm. to celebrate all the memories of the two decades I was there. Join me if you are willing and able!!!

Then into August, in which month 6 of the past 8 stock markets were down, and the next one could be a doozy if the Fed ever gets out of the way of the Free markets. Even the 4-year Presidential cycle and 7-8 year cycle (think 2008, 2000, 1994, 1987). But what's to worry?  TINA (There Is No Alternative to U S Stocks! What could possibly go wrong?

 Yet another new high for stocks (sans OTC Composite), breadth remained huge (Yuge?) with NYSE new highs to lows : 510 to 19!!!! The Bullish  % , Delta MACD crossover stocks on BUYs and McClellan Summation are getting quite high (but not rolling over).

Get ready for the Olympics and Election news ad nauseam!!!

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, July 18, 2016

Till Debt Do Us Part

No one, including our Fed, seems to be concerned about the massive Debt that the country - gov't, household- even global- is increasing. This cannot end well, whether now or (worse) later. Even reliable cycles - 7 to 8  year ( count from at least 1966), or the destructive 80-year (1930s) portend disaster. Debt to GDP (production) has gone from 55% in 2000 to 110% now (a double!!).

Record low interest rates usually indicate a bad Economy, but the Stock Market roars on!
The wrong Sectors - defensive - are leading the market - Util, Finance, Health, Staples. Quarterly earnings are down for the 5th Q. 18 of the last 19 Recessions have seen the Fed tighten in some manner; they also seem to occur @ the zero year of a decade.

But Breadth is incredibly strong recently - for only the third week in 2016 (since Feb.) mutual equity funds showed Inflows, only .3B - of course ETFs have gained more this year. NYSE new highs to lows were --- 659 to 11; stocks on BUY signals are high.
For the second month in a row (third this year) Insider Selling is huge (Bearish). Each time, including also last Nov., the market sold off.

Here are the numbers:

Date>   7/15/2016 7/8/2016
Indices: DJIA  18516 18146
  NAZ  5029 4956
SPX  2161 2129
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 8.4/4.3 7.1/3.8 *
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.95 1.87
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  56 64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.7 13.2
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 67% 55%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2158/984 2073/1067
Weekly Net: 1174 1006
     Cumulative: 170845nh 169671nh
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 659/11 564/62
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 387/70 242/116
McClellan  Oscillator 33 49
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 1152 914
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 52.5 47.1
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 24.7 24.5
Wed. AAII  -Bull  36.9 31.1
Bear  24.4 26.7
US$-WSJ 96.7 96.3
3-box rev Bullish%-  72 59
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate .3B
MMF flows Change in $B (2B) (17.4B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 1.55% 1.36%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.67% 0.60%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 116.3 117.5


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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