HAVE YOU ANY "INTEREST" ?:

For most of 2009 I have been developing an alternative strategy to the Zero Interest Rate policy that Fed Chairman Bernanke is implementing "for an extended period", penalizing the prudent investor used to Treasurys, CDs, etc., and driving them into riskier investment "bubbles". Briefly, this strategy involves exposure in the stock market with a safety net and additional return derived from In-The-Money covered calls on quality stocks with 3% dividends or greater, approaching a total double-digit return while providing some safety for the individual stock or market well below the current prices.

I will be reprising my initial talk to the SF Options group this month - December 19. Anyone wishing a copy of the presentation can e-mail me at: leonbrnt@aol.com.
Meanwhile, the Sentiment picture appears mixed, with NYSE new highs over 500 and downturns being met with buyers; on the downside, the Inv.Intell. Bears dropped to a record low of 16 (June of 2003), and mutual fund investors are abandoning stocks for bonds.

Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Year Hi	5 Year Low
DJIA:	10388	10309	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2194	2138	2126	1114
S&P 500:	1105	1091	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	61	58	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	21.3	24.7	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	23	-28	108	-100
McClellan Sum:	444	393	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	50.0	50.6	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	16.7	17.6	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	41.6	41.7	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	33.7	31.8	n/a	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	0.56	0.70	2.2	0.56
Mutual Fund Flows:	n/a	-.9B
Money Market Flows	-8.4B	-7.8B
ETF equity:Monthly Totals	Oct.691B	Sep.$580B
Baltic Dry Index:	4107	3974	11700	663
Bullish %:	74	76	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	26:1	26:1	108:1	2.4:1

DUE-BYE…KLUNK:

Yet another bubble of excess falls off a cliff - we'll know

in the fullness of time what effect Dubai will have on the

precarious global picture. Meanwhile Klunkers for Kars

expires today -222,000 turned in, helping the sales numbers.

Dow Theorists may observe that the Transports have put in

a Head & Shoulder Top, in a divergence from the Industrials.

Although the AAII has the Bulls and Bears tied last week at

41.7, the I.I. (Inv.Intell.) has a huge spread of 50.6 to 17.6-

Convential wisdom is that the zugzwang of forced performance

by money managers will carry us through '09; after the Dubai

shocker, little was changed on the Holiday week, except lower

Volume.

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Year HI	5 Year LOW
DJIA:	10309	10318	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2138	2146	2126	1114
S&P 500:	1091	1091	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	58	64	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	24.7	22.2	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	-28	-29	108	-100
McClellan Sum:	393	414	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	50.6	46.1	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	17.6	21.3	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	41.7	42.7	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	41.7	31.8	n/a	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	0.70	0.64	2.2	0.56
Mutual Fund Flows:	n/a	1.6B
Money Market Flows	-7.8B	3.7B
ETF equity:Monthly Totals	Oct.691B	Sep.$580B
Baltic Dry Index:	3974	4507	11700	663
Bullish %:	77	76	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	26:1	31:1	108:1	2.4:1
VIX Volatility:	-63	-62	12	-70
VIX 1-month Future:	-61	-62	2	-59
VIX 5-month Future:	-19	-21	8	-23

PARALLEL UNIVERSE:

John Mendelson, the former Chief Technical Analyst at Schwab, used to reiterate: Watch what they DO, not what they SAY! According to the talking heads on TV, echoing gov't positivity, Retail Sales and Income are rising nicely. John Mauldin, in his newsletter, wonders why there are no concomitant increases in Sales Taxes and State Income Taxes!

Meanwhile the trends continue in zugzwang (forced) fashion for the markets and gold, while the dollar keeps slip sliding away. Although the OTC market seems weaker, the new lows are declining actually more than the NYSE;  all else seems to be in Holiday limbo, except for the number of Bears declining in newsletters and CEO/Insider Selling has picked up even more.

Here are the stats:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Year HI	5 Year LOW
DJIA:	10318	10270	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2167	2146	2126	1114
S&P 500:	1091	1093	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	64	57	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	22.2	23.4	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	-29	5	108	-100
McClellan Sum:	414	396	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	46.1	44.4	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	21.3	26.7	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	42.7	38.6	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	31.8	38.6	n/a	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	0.64	0.53	2.2	0.56
Mutual Fund Flows:	n/a	8.4B
Money Market Flows	-3.68B	3.7B
ETF Equity:Monthly Totals	598B	567B
Baltic Dry Index:	4507	4111	11700	663
Bullish %:	77	76	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	31:1	23:1	108:1	2.4:1
VIX Volatility:	-62	-68	12	-70
VIX 1-month Future:	-62	-60	2	-59
VIX 5-month Future:	-21	-22	8	-23

TRISKAIDECAPHOBIA:

Another Friday the 13th passes harmlessly, as did a very interesting TSAA Annual Seminar at Golden Gate Univ., especially for those interested in options, with several seasoned veterans holding forth - Jon Najarian, Rick Ackerman, Tim Knight, Charles Cottle, and a webinar by Dan Sullivan, et.al.
 Over 100 attendees sat and listened for 9 hours to various software programs, strategies, etc.
 The market continues its upward march fueled by corporate cash not wanting to invest in capital or dividends, 8% cash in bond MMFs, and hedgehogs and other money managers not wanting to show absence in this roaring bull.
Most indicators are mid-range, while the Baltic Dry Index broke a 4-handle for the first time in awhile. The AAII made a quantum shift to dead even Bulls/Bears.
Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr Hi	5 Yr Low
DJIA:	10270	10023	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2167	2112	2126	1114
S&P 500:	1093	1069	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	57	67	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	23.4	24.2	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	5	-13	108	-100
McClellan Sum:	396	363	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	44.4	48.3	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	26.7	24.7	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	33.7	22.2	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	42.3	55.6	n/a	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	0.53	0.52	2.2	0.56
Mutual Fund Flows:		-4.7B
Money Market Flows	-3.68B	-3B
ETF Flows: Monthly Totals	Sep 580B	Aug 657B
Baltic Dry Index:	4111	3393	11700	663
Bullish %:	76	73	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	23:1	14:1	108:1	2.4:1
VIX Volatility:	-50	-65	12	-70
VIX 1-month Future:	-45	-59	2	-59
VIX 5-month Future:	-20	-23	8	-23

TSAA'S PUBLIC "OPTION":

This Saturday the TSAA of San Francisco is presenting its Annual Seminar with the theme of Options, and some of the brightest stars in the field, including Jon Najarian (Dr. J), Tim Knight, Dan Sheridan, et.al. Over 100 are expected, due to membership discounts, great food, Continuing Educ. credits, etc.
More info can be found at tsaasf.org.
Markets seem to be blowing bubbles again with this constant liquidity - the Greenspan put vs. the Taylor Rule from the Fed. My personal guess is that the Obama gov't cut a deal with the big banks to give them their money if they promised no exogenous shocks to the market, usually occurring in Sept. Oct. 
Sentiment would dictate that the dollar is way oversold (90% bears), inflows into ETFs such as Brazil (up 100%), and Gold (GLD has more physical gold than all but 4 of the Central Banks!). The UUP, which rises on a strong Dollar, has huge open interest and volume in Nov. and Dec.
  Indicators are swinging wildly this week - the McClellan Oscillator came back from a deep minus 100 to -13;  AAII Bulls are only 22% while the Bears are over 55%.
Finally, the Rydex Nova/Ursa  ratio dropped 30 basis points from a Bearish 0.81 to .52

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Year HI	5 Year LOW
DJIA:	10023	9712	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2112	2045	2126	1114
S&P 500:	1069	1036	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	67	66	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	24.2	30.7	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	-13	-100	108	-100
McClellan Sum:	363	593	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
Investors Intel.
Bull:	48.3	48.3	63	22.21
Bear:	24.7	22.5	54.4	16
AAII
Bull:	22.2	33.7	n/a	n/a
Bear:	55.6	42.3	n/a	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	0.52	0.81	2.2	0.56
Baltic Dry Index:	3393	3013	11700	663
Bullish %:	73	74	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	14:1	24:1	108:1	2.4:1
VIX Volatility:	-65	-50	12	-70
VIX 1-month Future:	-59	-45	2	-59
VIX 5-month Future:	-23	-20	8	-23

"FOLLY" BERGIERE:

This stock market has more "LEGS" than the FOX Channel! 
After a wild end to October (since 70% of market Volume is now HFTs, or High Frequency Traders), we resume upwards in Nov. The McClellan Oscillator at -100 was the first clue, in the Sentiment mix. VIX upward spikes around the first of the month have been the norm since the March rally started.
Investment newsletters are mixed with the Inv. Intell. Bullish on the market, while the AAII is inverted (Bears over Bulls) and Bullish FOR the market.
Both Equity mutual fund and money market fund flows have been slightly negative recently. Longer term, the Nova/Ursa ratio of long/short is more negative FOR the market, as is CEO Insider Selling at 24:1.
See numbers in box to the left under Recent Posts -Weekly Numbers:

Weekly Numbers:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Year HI	5 Year LOW
DJIA:	9712	9972	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2045	2154	2126	1114
S&P 500:	1036	1079	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	66	61	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	30.7	22.3	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	-100	-49	108	-100
McClellan Sum:	593	1032	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
Investors Intel.
Bull:	48.3	49.5	63	22.21
Bear:	22.5	23.1	54.4	16
AAII
Bull:	33.7	40.5	n/a	n/a
Bear:	42.3	33.8	n/a	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	0.81	0.63	2.2	0.56
Baltic Dry Index:	3013	3043	11700	663
Bullish %:	74	84	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	24:1	22:1	108:1	2.4:1
1-YEAR %:
VIX Volatility:	-50	-70		-22.00
VIX 1-month Future:	-45	-58		-18.00
VIX 5-month Future:	-20	-22		-7