Monday, February 27, 2017

TAKE A HIKE

Since everything Trump is beeyoutiful these days, a possible rate hike by the Fed maybe in the cards for mid-March - a good time to jump into Treasuries at auction (par) if you have some spare cash.
Stocks, however, could be heading for at least a Correction, with consecutive record highs rivaling 1987 !!!!!
Sentiment and Breadth seem equal to the rising market in intensity; Equity flows - funds and ETFs (those traded on exchanges) have been positive since the election (after a brief respite) . They were mostly flowing Out all of 2016 until then.  Margin Debt is spectacularly high -  a danger if stocks start to slide and people/robos have to sell to meet margin calls -Hello!
All else seems stable - Bulls, advance/declines, VIX, but Inflation -as measured by TIPS hit a new high last week. See below:

Date   2/24/2017 2/17/2017
Indices: DJIA  20821 20624
  NAZ  5845 5838
SPX  2367 2351
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 7.3/3.6 9.6/4.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.03 2.23
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  64 57
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.5 11.5
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 71.9 72.6
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1763/1334 1606/1501
Weekly Net: 429 105
     Cumulative: 175207 174776
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 449/41 504/33
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 496/95 555/85
McClellan  Oscillator 2 2
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 812 778
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 61.2 61.8
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.5 17.6
Wed. AAII  -Bull  38.5 33.1
Bear  32.1 32.4
US$-WSJ 101.1 100.9
3-box rev Bullish%-  77nh 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 8.1B
MMF flows Change in $B 5.1B (2.0B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  490B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.3 2.4
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.15 1.2
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114.9 114.2

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, February 20, 2017

JANET YODA

What comes first - the departure of the current Fed Head or the inevitable Recession, which could be a doozy? For over  a Century, we've had an "R" around the zero year of the decennial cycle, plus or minus a year or so - last one was 2008, after which the Fed dropped interest rates to...Zero and propped up the markets - stock and real estate.
Worries coming up this year (contrary to Janet's hemming and hawing, which talking heads posit that move computer-driven markets) are: NAFTA LA VISTA (coined by Dimitra D. in Barron's this week) , the Border Tax, CalExit, the North Korea "nucular" threat.
Stocks crawled up higher to new records and the VIX (Volatility) stayed low - which unlike high IV could stay that way for a long while ( more from Bill Luby's option column in Barron's). Threats to the market are: Extreme Margin Interest, length of the Bull market, $20T national debt, and some tech valuations.
What could possibly go Rong?
Here are the numbers:
Date 2/17/2017 2/10/2017
Indices: DJIA  20624 20269
NAZ  5838 5734
SPX  2351 2316
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.6/4.3 9.3/4.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.23 2.27
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  57 67
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.5 10.9
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 72.6 68.5
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1606/1501 1974/1115
Weekly Net: 105 859
     Cumulative: 174776 174671
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 504/33 379/44
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 555/85 423/110
McClellan  Oscillator 2 27
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 778 686
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 61.8 62.7
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.6 16.7
Wed. AAII  -Bull  33.1 35.8
Bear  32.4 27.7
US$-WSJ 100.9 100.7
3-box rev Bullish%-  76 71
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate .8B
MMF flows Change in $B (2.0B) (3.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.4 2.4
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.2 1.2
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114.2 114.2


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, February 13, 2017

DIALECTICS

One of the most profound and useful concepts I've found, which apply to so many things - such as today's political, racial, Congressional, and nationalistic divides- is Dialectic: put forth recently by Hegel, and Chalybaus, -that  Thesis, when countered by Antithesis, should result in a better Synthesis. Taking the better parts of both sides and merging them into a better way!

So far... the new environment has been beneficial for the stock market--until it's Not. Stocks are pushing up against high valuations, number of years (both bond and stocks), debt and market % of GDP, etc.  Even margin debt at low rates is dangerous.

But Sentiment and breadth show no sign of weakness yet. $$ flows out of MMFs into stock MUFs and ETFs; Inflation contained and Volatility low. Here are the numbers:

Date   2/10/2017 2/3/2017
Indices: DJIA  20269 20071
  NAZ  5734 5666
SPX  2316 2297
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.3/4.1 9.8/4.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.27 2.13
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  67 71
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 10.9 11
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 68.5 71.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1974/1115 1914/1184
Weekly Net: 859 730
     Cumulative: 174671 173812
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 379/44 331/57
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 423/110 350/125
McClellan  Oscillator 27 18
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 686 654
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 62.7 61.8
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 16.7 17.6
Wed. AAII  -Bull  35.8 32.8
Bear  27.7 34.2
US$-WSJ 100.7 99.7
3-box rev Bullish%-  71 71
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 11.8B
MMF flows Change in $B (3.2B) (5.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  490B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.4 2.5
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.2 1.2
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114.2 113.9

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, February 6, 2017

GOOD BREADTH

Thanks to Friday's rebound, the overall market came out rather positive, with my cumulative Advance/Decline hitting all time highs, and New Hi's better than Lows. Margin debt backed off a bit, which means short-covering (see below):

Date   2/3/2017 1/27/2017
Indices: DJIA  20071 20093
  NAZ  5666 5660
SPX  2297 2294
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.8/4.6 8.8/4.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.13 2.15
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  71 67
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11 10.6
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 71.3 72.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1914/1184 2115/994
Weekly Net: 730 1121
     Cumulative: 173812 173082
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 331/57 498/41
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 350/125 464/108
McClellan  Oscillator 18 3
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 654 682
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 61.8 58.2
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.6 17.5
Wed. AAII  -Bull  32.8 31.6
Bear  34.2 33.5
US$-WSJ 99.7 100.5
3-box rev Bullish%-  71 73
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (8.2B)
MMF flows Change in $B (5.7B) 19.7B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  490B DEC:
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.5 2.5
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.2 1.2
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.9 114

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, January 30, 2017

20 K - SO WHAT

It took 50 years for the DJIA to grow from 1,000 (in 1966) to now, for an average annual gain of 2.5%; Before that it grew from 40 at its inception in 1896 (if memory serves) to 1,000 - 70 years, at a rate of 2.8%. Big Deal, especially considering the addition in 2004 of the FANG-type stocks and the Fed led rally from '09, which makes the chart look parabolically dangerous.
Also parabolic is the chart of Insider Selling in Barron's this week, although that correlation to market movement is not very tight (Insider Buying is better.
Also Fake News - if adjusted for Inflation, the Nasdaq should be around 7,000, not 5,600 if you use 40% compounded Infl. from the year 2000.

Outstanding numbers for last week's Sentiment columns below were still the margin debt (second highest since 1930); AAII Bears outnumbered the Bulls % for the first time in awhile, and the $$ flowed dramatically from equity funds back into MMFs week over week. Finally, NYSE new highs to lows broke the 10:1 ratio.

Date   1/27/2017 1/20/2017
Indices: DJIA  20093 19827
  NAZ  5660 5555
SPX  2294 2271
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 8.8/4.1 6.9/3.4*
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.15 2.03
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  67 64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 10.6 11.5
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 72.9 74.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2115/994 1222/1869
Weekly Net: 1121 -647
     Cumulative: 173082 171961
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 498/41 213/42
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 464/108 231/79
McClellan  Oscillator 3 -8
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 682 627
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 58.2 60.6
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.5 17.3
Wed. AAII  -Bull  31.6 37
Bear  33.5 32.7
US$-WSJ 100.5 100.8
3-box rev Bullish%-  73 73
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (3.7B)
MMF flows Change in $B 19.7B (24.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  500B NOV.
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.5 2.5
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.2 1.2
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114 113.7

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, January 23, 2017

SO FAR, ,,NOT FAR

Pretty boring market so far this year; mostly down last week: averages, breadth, new highs/lows. Even the $ dropped, with Trump's thoughts of weakening it for the country's benefit. This, of course, strengthens gold, which has dropped from a 19 handle to 11, now breeching 12.
Here are the numbers:

Date 1/20/2017 1/13/2017
Indices: DJIA  19827 19885
NAZ  5555 5574
SPX  2271 2274
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 6.9/3.4* 8.9/4.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.03 2.12
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  64 64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.5 11.2
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 74.2 74.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1222/1869 1757/1339
Weekly Net: -647 418
     Cumulative: 171961 172608
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 213/42 295/39
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 231/79 308/79
McClellan  Oscillator -8 17
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 627 644
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 60.6 58.4
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.3 18.3
Wed. AAII  -Bull  37 43.6
Bear  32.7 27
US$-WSJ 100.8 101.2
3-box rev Bullish%-  73 73
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 3.0B
MMF flows Change in $B (24.7B) (22.5B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  500B NOV.
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.5 2.4
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.2 1.2
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.7 114

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, January 16, 2017

BULL, BEAR, OR CHICKEN

This week in Barron's weekly mag Ben Levisohn opened his column with how this year's market (so far) resembles putting your phone call on Hold. After a Huge rally ending 2016, stocks are pretty flat, but that may end this Friday with Trump's inauguration (hopefully peaceful).
Volume was back to normal, with an edge to speculative (Nasdaq over NYSE), MSI stocks on a Buy signal rose to a new recent high of 74 as did the Bullish Consensus, while VIX "slud" to 11.2.  The Inflation Indicator - TIP hit 114 for the first time in awhile, and Margin Interest hit $500B, near its $507B high - scary, when you think about having to cover that in a major slide -margin calls. MMF outflows doubled from the prior week Here are the numbers:


Date 1/13/17 1/6/2017
Indices: DJIA  19885 19963
NAZ  5574 5521
SPX  2274 2277
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 8.9/4.2 7.2/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.12 2
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  64 67
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.2 11.3
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 74.2 69.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1757/1339 2369/724
Weekly Net: 418 1645
     Cumulative: 172608 172190
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 295/39 360/27
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 308/79 362/67
McClellan  Oscillator 17 21.4
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 644 577
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 58.4 60.2
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 18.3 18.4
Wed. AAII  -Bull  43.6 46.2
Bear  27 25.2
US$-WSJ 101.2 103
3-box rev Bullish%-  73 72
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (2.1B)
MMF flows Change in $B (22.5B) (11.3B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  NOV. 500B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.4 2.42
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.2 1.21
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114 113.5

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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