Monday, September 26, 2016

WHO IS THE MASTER DEBATER?

As tonight's debate competes with the NFL's Saints/Falcons game, record numbers will be watching the former - 100M estimated. Barron's opines that if Trump seems to win the show, the market will actually drop during October (as it does today).

Sentiment is mixed, with Breadth remaining strong - A/Ds 4 to 1, new highs 5 to 1 on the NYSE, Nasdaq hitting a new all-time high, Bears increasing (contrary), etc., BUT- MMF flows were $50B IN from the previous week, Volume was strong on down days, especially Inst. Investors'.

Flying to San Diego next week; here are last week's numbers:

Date>   9/23/2016 9/16/2016
Indices: DJIA  18261 18123
  NAZ  5305 5244
SPX  2164 2139
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.1/4.1 10.8/6.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.22 1.8
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  60 65
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.3 15.4
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 57% 62%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2500/635 1062/2048
Weekly Net: 1865 -986
     Cumulative: 172379 170514
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 233/46 99/69
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 349/101 173/135
McClellan  Oscillator 14 *12
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 571 *517
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 44.6 49
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 24.3 22.6
Wed. AAII  -Bull  24.8 27.9
Bear  38.3 35.9
US$-WSJ 95.4 95
3-box rev Bullish%-  71 71
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (3.4B)
MMF flows Change in $B 10.7B (38.5B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 1.62% 1.60%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.75% 0.77%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 116.2 115

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Saturday, September 10, 2016

EARLY EDITION II

As noted earlier, I shall be travelling the next two weeks - family bonding (and stocking). Monday should be quite exciting despite (hopefully) no 9/11 tragedies - after Friday's meltdown. Still, Sentiment Indicators, through bloody Friday, were mostly echoing Augusts ennui. A/D (advances/declines) were obviously ugly, but the new highs - NY and Nasd - still Yuge..

Volume about the same as previous, despite the Monday off. The Bullish % (stocks on a Buy signal) and its new cousin -  Delta SMI - remain high, but no weakness in either. And the McClellan Oscillator, near the minus 50 level (usually my buy signal for Monday) would indicate a reversal of Friday (thanks Fed); or maybe NOT. Fedmeet is the 20th on, and Fiscal year end a couple weeks later - budget????

Here are the numbers:
Date>   9/9/2016 9/2/2016
Indices: DJIA  18085 18492
  NAZ  5125 5249
SPX  2127 2179
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 7.6/3.6 7.7/4.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.11 1.88
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  63 65
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17.5 12
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 70% 70%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 631/2499 2086/1028
Weekly Net: -1868 1058
     Cumulative: 171500 173368
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 456/30 404/34
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 400/75 362/75
McClellan  Oscillator -47 -1
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 758 788
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 52.5 55.9
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 22.8 20.6
Wed. AAII  -Bull  29.8 28.6
Bear  28.5 31.5
US$-WSJ 95.3 95.9
3-box rev Bullish%-  74 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (.1B(
MMF flows Change in $B (29B) (10.5B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  475B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 1.67% 1.60%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.78% 0.79%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 115.1 115.5


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, September 5, 2016

LABOR DAY

Labor Day - the day no one works ! As Art Hoppe  said in the S F Chronicle 50 years ago, a day invented by unions to make sure people work less, get paid more. It seems to be "working", as the number of people in the workforce is at a decades low, in spite of the gov't increasing at all levels - the S F gov't staff is 30,000, or 1 for every 300 residents.

Despite the many fears for the stock market success - Election, calendar weakness (Sept.& Oct.), Brexit, etc.- some things are positive. The Barron's Option column reports very low Volatility in options ( a sign of complacency); fund flows in Bear funds have sold, making for more cash available to buy, while Bull funds are flat. Wall of Worry: EVERYONE who is anyone is Bearish for at least a Correction: Jim Grant, Bill Gross, Icahn, Soros, Jim Rogers, S. Pomboy e.g.

Despite the second longest Flat market since '09, the fear of a rate hike has diminished short term. But this is the first Bull driven, not by earnings, but Fed easing, of the 5 in 40 years. NIRP ??

Breadth remains strong (New Highs), but Volume weak; bigtime $$ left MMFs to MUF (mutual);
 monthly Margin debt increased, almost to all time highs - from April '15.

I'll be vacationing (zigging while the masses have zagged already) for the next few weeks.

Here are the Sentiment numbers:
Date>   9/2/2016 8/26/2016
Indices: DJIA  18492 18395
  NAZ  5249 5218
SPX  2179 2169
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 7.7/4.1 7.9/3.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.88 2.14
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  65 67
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12 13.7
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 70% 73%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2086/1028 1413/1707
Weekly Net: 1058 -294
     Cumulative: 173368 172310
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 404/34 409/29
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 362/75 364/75
McClellan  Oscillator -1 -35
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 788 878
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 55.9 56.7
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 20.6 20.2
Wed. AAII  -Bull  28.6 29.4
Bear  31.5 29.6
US$-WSJ 95.9 94.7
3-box rev Bullish%-  76 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (4.5B)
MMF flows Change in $B (10.5B) 24.6
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  475B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 1.60% 1.63%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.79% 0.85%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 115.5 116.5



With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, August 29, 2016

COLUMNIST MANIFESTO

I'm thinking of becoming a columnist again (after Examiner.com, Marina Times, TSAA Review, et.al.) - it is so easy: just say The Fed is thinking of raising the interest rates, maybe in Sept, or Dec.!; Hillary and Trump are disagreeable again!!!

Despite well-meaning attempts to satisfy everyone's wellbeing with uncharted DEBT - gov't, personal, student loan, etc. the last 3 regimes have encouraged gov't misdirected spending - even George W (who thought Roe vs. Wade was how to cross the Potomac River). Pensions and retirement accounts getting zero interest cannot possibly repay beneficiaries down the line, as people live longer and the workforce dwindles. The almighty Dollar has sunk from 100 pennies to @ 6 in the past 50 years and promises to end up in wheelbarrows as the Weimar Mark did.

The current market, albeit in vacation time, is dead in the water as to direction. Last week's Sentiment Indicators are exactly like the week before. The McClellan Oscillator, due to a weaker Advance/Decline week, prompted Monday's rally, sinking almost to my minus 50  Buy signal. If it doesn't work, we are in deep trouble!

The Calm before the storm scares me - the time of year, the aforementioned Fed and Election, DEBT.
Barron's Option column notes the great complacency of low Volatility in options - a good time to get Hedged!!
Date>   8/26/2016 8/19/2016
Indices: DJIA  18395 18552
  NAZ  5218 5238
SPX  2169 2184
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 7.9/3.7 8.2/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.14 2.1
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  67 58
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.7 11.3
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 73% 73%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1413/1707 1666/1447
Weekly Net: -294 219
     Cumulative: 172310 172604
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 409/29 410/25
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 364/75 383/81
McClellan  Oscillator -35 -19
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 878 992
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 56.7 56.2
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 20.2 20
Wed. AAII  -Bull  29.4 35.6
Bear  29.6 26.4
US$-WSJ 94.7 94.5
3-box rev Bullish%-  76 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (5B)
MMF flows Change in $B 24.6 (34.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  447B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 1.63% 1.58%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.85% 0.75%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 116.5 116


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, August 22, 2016

SHOW ME THE MONEY

The annual Money Show is here in S.F. this week, but not too many recognizable names appearing. Tuesday afternoon features Arthur Laffer and Stephen Moore. My finance group - TSAA- is hosting Stephanie Kammerman today, speaking on Dark Pools (she is also at the MS.
Outside of a rare Positive money flow (albeit minor) in mutual fund $$, and a Yuge decrease in MMF $$s,  all other Indicators were about the same as the prior week - see below:

Date>   8/19/2016 8/12/2016
Indices: DJIA  18552 18576
  NAZ  5238 5232
SPX  2184 2184
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 8.2/3.9 7.9/3.8
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.1 2.08
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  58 59
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.3 11.5
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 73% 71%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1666/1447 1681/1431
Weekly Net: 219 250
     Cumulative: 172604 172385
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 410/25 551/23
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 383/81 370/99
McClellan  Oscillator -19 -12
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 992 1065
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 56.2 54.3
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 20 28.9
Wed. AAII  -Bull  35.6 31.3
Bear  26.4 26.8
US$-WSJ 94.5 95.7
3-box rev Bullish%-  76 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 3.7B
MMF flows Change in $B (34.9B) 6.0B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  447B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 1.58% 1.51%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.75% 0.70%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 116 116.3


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Wednesday, August 17, 2016

EVERYTHING IS BEAUTIFUL

All systems go in the markets these days - only the second time this century that all markets - DJIA, NAS, and SPX- hit new highs together (first time was the week before this !!). Breadth  keeps going strong - New his/lows were 551 to 23 on NYSE. Stocks on BUY signals strong, but Volume weak - a divergence. Barron's option column states 6-figure purchases of VIX calls, expecting big volatility in Sept. Strong markets usually signal incumbent party to win election.
Here are the numbers:

Date>   8/12/2016 8/5/2016
Indices: DJIA  18576 18543
  NAZ  5232 5221
SPX  2184 2182
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 7.9/3.8 9.7/4.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.08 2.2
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  59 63
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.5 11.3 yr.low
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 71% 70%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1681/1431 1624/1492
Weekly Net: 250 132
     Cumulative: 172385 172135
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 551/23 544/44
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 370/99 364/107
McClellan  Oscillator -12 -5
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 1065 1102
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 54.3 52.9
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 28.9 21.2
Wed. AAII  -Bull  31.3 29.8
Bear  26.8 26.8
US$-WSJ 95.7 96.2
3-box rev Bullish%-  76 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (6B)
MMF flows Change in $B 6.0B 24B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  JUNE:
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 1.51% 1.59%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.70% 0.73%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 116.3 115.7


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, August 8, 2016

HO HUM

It's like last week never happened in the world of Sentiment Indicators; despites some fluctuations, most remained exactly the same. The VIX dropped even lower. Possibly the Calm before the August storm???

 
Date>   8/5/2016 7/29/2016
Indices: DJIA  18543 18431
  NAZ  5221 5162
SPX  2182 2173
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.7/4.4 9.8/4.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.2 2.09
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  63 67
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.3 yr.low 11.9
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 70% 74%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1624/1492 1729/1406
Weekly Net: 132 323
     Cumulative: 172135 172003
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 544/44 603/33
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 364/107 401/89
McClellan  Oscillator -5 -4
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 1102 1228
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 52.9 53.9
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 21.2 21.6
Wed. AAII  -Bull  29.8 31.3
Bear  26.8 28.4
US$-WSJ 96.2
3-box rev Bullish%-  76 75
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (4.1B)
MMF flows Change in $B 24B 0
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  JUNE: 447B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 1.59% 1.50%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.73% 0.68%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 115.7 116.4


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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