Monday, January 16, 2017

BULL, BEAR, OR CHICKEN

This week in Barron's weekly mag Ben Levisohn opened his column with how this year's market (so far) resembles putting your phone call on Hold. After a Huge rally ending 2016, stocks are pretty flat, but that may end this Friday with Trump's inauguration (hopefully peaceful).
Volume was back to normal, with an edge to speculative (Nasdaq over NYSE), MSI stocks on a Buy signal rose to a new recent high of 74 as did the Bullish Consensus, while VIX "slud" to 11.2.  The Inflation Indicator - TIP hit 114 for the first time in awhile, and Margin Interest hit $500B, near its $507B high - scary, when you think about having to cover that in a major slide -margin calls. MMF outflows doubled from the prior week Here are the numbers:


Date 1/13/17 1/6/2017
Indices: DJIA  19885 19963
NAZ  5574 5521
SPX  2274 2277
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 8.9/4.2 7.2/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.12 2
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  64 67
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.2 11.3
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 74.2 69.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1757/1339 2369/724
Weekly Net: 418 1645
     Cumulative: 172608 172190
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 295/39 360/27
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 308/79 362/67
McClellan  Oscillator 17 21.4
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 644 577
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 58.4 60.2
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 18.3 18.4
Wed. AAII  -Bull  43.6 46.2
Bear  27 25.2
US$-WSJ 101.2 103
3-box rev Bullish%-  73 72
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (2.1B)
MMF flows Change in $B (22.5B) (11.3B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  NOV. 500B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.4 2.42
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.2 1.21
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114 113.5

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, January 9, 2017

"TRUMPETER'S" SERENADE

In the past Century Joseph Schumpeter advanced the theory of Creative Destruction, in which it takes breaking an egg to make an omelet. Present Donald Trump seeks to do the same, in many venues.
Over the year end break fund flows from MMFs reversed from  $16B Inflows to #11B Outflows in January's first week. Per Schwab's great Research team, last year saw the greatest exit from equity mutual funds in a decade, mostly into ETFs (probably Index).
Sentiment wise, the Bulls are running, for the I I and the AAII, with Investors' Intelligence just over 60. This overconfidence might not bode well for the immediate future. All else seems normal:

Date 1/6/2017 12/30/2016
Indices: DJIA  19963 19762
NAZ  5521 5383
SPX  2277 2238
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 7.2/3.6 5.3/2.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2 2.12
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  67 65
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.3 14
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 69.8 68%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2369/724 1223/1868
Weekly Net: 1645 -645
     Cumulative: 172190 170545
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 360/27 228/6
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 362/67 325/125
McClellan  Oscillator 21.4 -8
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 577 462
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 60.2 60.2
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 18.4 18.4
Wed. AAII  -Bull  46.2 45.6
Bear  25.2 25.7
US$-WSJ 103 102.4
3-box rev Bullish%-  72 70
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 0.7B
MMF flows Change in $B (11.3B) 15.9B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  500B November
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.42 2.46%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.21 1.22%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.5 113.1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Tuesday, January 3, 2017

SANTA CLAUS RALLY "SLAY RIDE"

Not a pretty week to end 2016, but it is in Xmas RED!!
With lower Holiday Volume, most Indicators showed the Old Ennui - UNCH. Exceptions were money flow reversal in MMFs (Money Markets), and margin debt - recorded monthly neared record highs. Could pressure any major decline with margin calls.

Date   12/30/2016 12/23/2016
Indices: DJIA  19762 19933
  NAZ  5383 5462
SPX  2238 2263
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 5.3/2.5 7.5/3.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.12 2.14
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  65 69
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14 11.4
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 68% 69%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1223/1868 1815/1289
Weekly Net: -645 526
     Cumulative: 170545 171190
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 228/6 314/68
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 325/125 457/149
McClellan  Oscillator -8 9
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 462 466
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull N/A 59.8
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs N/A 19.6
Wed. AAII  -Bull  45.6 44.6
Bear  25.7 29.2
US$-WSJ 102.4 102.9
3-box rev Bullish%-  70 70
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 0
MMF flows Change in $B 15.9B (20.8B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  500B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.46% 2.54%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.22% 1.20%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.1 112.5

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Tuesday, December 27, 2016

SANTA CLAUS RALLY

Odds are, despite Dark Pools making up half the stock market Volume these days, that the usual final week will pass us through the 20,000 mark on the DJIA, even with a four-day week. After that, I do not see much of a strong rally in 2017.
One reason is that so many $$ are going into Index ETFs, that it is lifting the bad/weak members of that Index along with the good, and could weaken the rally. Most Indicators below were Bullish, short term, except for the early week newsletter Bull/Bear ratios. Nasdaq Volume was strong, yet overall Volume down; stocks on BUY signals up; equity flows from MMFs good.

 Have a Great New Years!!

Date   12/23/2016 12/16/2016
Indices: DJIA  19933 19843
  NAZ  5462 5437
SPX  2263 2258
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 7.5/3.5 11.0/6.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.14 1.77
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  69 58
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.4 12.2
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 69% 70%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1815/1289 1045/2063
Weekly Net: 526 -1018
     Cumulative: 171190 170664
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 314/68 475/182
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 457/149 564/153
McClellan  Oscillator 9 4
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 466 403
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 59.8 59.6
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 19.6 19.2
Wed. AAII  -Bull  44.6 44.7
Bear  29.2 32.3
US$-WSJ 102.9 102.8
3-box rev Bullish%-  70 71
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 19.0B
MMF flows Change in $B (20.8B) (3.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  484B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.54% 2.59%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.20% 1.26%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 112.5 111.2

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Thursday, December 22, 2016

'TIS THE SEASON...

For ThanksTaking !! Am I the only one who noticed that it used to be crass to send an Xmas greeting and also ask for donations (charities, etc. - catching people a their most vulnerable moment). Kinda like the post-millenium change of corporate mandate from what is best of the company and product to what is best for the investor ( e.g. key employees who hold tons of vested shares)!!

That said, I wanted to wish readers of my sentiment blog: mktsentiment.blogspot.com. a happy year end season; also suggest a gift (commercial) Leland Faust's book A Capitalist's Lament. A former Barron's all star Advisor with mucho experience writes about the corruption on Wall St. and D.C., but loves the idea of Capitalism done right. Good Read. $25.  

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, December 19, 2016

OPTIONS "EXASPERATION"

Friday was the last Option expiry and Triple Witching (futures,stocks) of 2016, and other things were happening to the market, including the upcoming Holidays. The week was basically a non-event as the DJIA moved up a tad, others down. Volume was a record high and the new Delta MSI indicator (Bullish when high) hit 70. The McClellan Oscillator was flat, as was the VIX and today's market. The I.I. Bull/Bear ratio stayed above 3.0, which shows complacency.
Here are the numbers:

Date   12/16/2016 12/9/2016
Indices: DJIA  19843 19786
  NAZ  5437 5444
SPX  2258 2259
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 11.0/6.2 10.0/4.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.77 2.17
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  58 53
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.2 11.8
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 70% 64%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1045/2063 2451/666
Weekly Net: -1018 1785
     Cumulative: 170664 171682
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 475/182 676/94
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 564/153 788/120
McClellan  Oscillator 4 50
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 403 345
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 59.6 58.8
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 19.2 19.6
Wed. AAII  -Bull  44.7 43.1
Bear  32.3 26.5
US$-WSJ 102.8 101.6
3-box rev Bullish%-  71 68
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 3.0B
MMF flows Change in $B (3.9B) 16.9B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  484B OCT.
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.59% 2.47%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.26% 1.14%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 111.2 112.8

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, December 12, 2016

EVERYTHING IS BEEEEAUTIFUL

So They (everyone) Say! The Trump Market will rise to at least 20,000 in the next 6 months! But not straight up. At a recent TSAA (technical analysts' society) annual luncheon, veteran analyst, teacher, and partner with Martin Pring -Bruce Fraser-, gave a talk on the markets. Although he did not say we were near a top, the charts he showed were convincing that a possible cessation might occur: a "Broadening top in the SPX looks to make a 5-wave triangle, and the Co-dependence of stocks to Bonds shows an offset top occurring.
The Investors' Intelligence Bull/Bear reached a 3 X Bull dominance (complacency) - a rarity! 59 to 19. Advance/Declines were 4 to 1 and New highs on the Nasdaq hit a record 700+ to 100. Also, the Volumes showed a large increase in NAS to NYSE (also speculative) The McClellan Oscillator hit +50 (my short term sell signal, which proved again today, at least for the NAS and SPX). We shall find out in the Fullness of Time.

Here are last week's numbers:

Date 12/9/2016 12/2/2016
Indices: DJIA  19786 19170
NAZ  5444 5255
SPX  2259 2191
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 10.0/4.6 9.4/5.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.17 1.71
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  53 61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.8 14.1
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 64% 66%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2451/666 1026/2098
Weekly Net: 1785 -1075
     Cumulative: 171682 169897
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 676/94 462/178
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 788/120 536/144
McClellan  Oscillator 50 3
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 345 110
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 58.8 56.3
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 19.6 22.3
Wed. AAII  -Bull  43.1 43.8
Bear  26.5 25.1
US$-WSJ 101.6 100.3
3-box rev Bullish%-  68 65
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 2.8B
MMF flows Change in $B 16.9B 13.9B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  OCT. n/a
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.47% 2.39%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.14% 1.10%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 112.8 113.1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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