Monday, February 13, 2017

DIALECTICS

One of the most profound and useful concepts I've found, which apply to so many things - such as today's political, racial, Congressional, and nationalistic divides- is Dialectic: put forth recently by Hegel, and Chalybaus, -that  Thesis, when countered by Antithesis, should result in a better Synthesis. Taking the better parts of both sides and merging them into a better way!

So far... the new environment has been beneficial for the stock market--until it's Not. Stocks are pushing up against high valuations, number of years (both bond and stocks), debt and market % of GDP, etc.  Even margin debt at low rates is dangerous.

But Sentiment and breadth show no sign of weakness yet. $$ flows out of MMFs into stock MUFs and ETFs; Inflation contained and Volatility low. Here are the numbers:

Date   2/10/2017 2/3/2017
Indices: DJIA  20269 20071
  NAZ  5734 5666
SPX  2316 2297
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.3/4.1 9.8/4.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.27 2.13
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  67 71
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 10.9 11
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 68.5 71.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1974/1115 1914/1184
Weekly Net: 859 730
     Cumulative: 174671 173812
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 379/44 331/57
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 423/110 350/125
McClellan  Oscillator 27 18
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 686 654
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 62.7 61.8
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 16.7 17.6
Wed. AAII  -Bull  35.8 32.8
Bear  27.7 34.2
US$-WSJ 100.7 99.7
3-box rev Bullish%-  71 71
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 11.8B
MMF flows Change in $B (3.2B) (5.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  490B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.4 2.5
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.2 1.2
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114.2 113.9

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, February 6, 2017

GOOD BREADTH

Thanks to Friday's rebound, the overall market came out rather positive, with my cumulative Advance/Decline hitting all time highs, and New Hi's better than Lows. Margin debt backed off a bit, which means short-covering (see below):

Date   2/3/2017 1/27/2017
Indices: DJIA  20071 20093
  NAZ  5666 5660
SPX  2297 2294
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.8/4.6 8.8/4.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.13 2.15
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  71 67
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11 10.6
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 71.3 72.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1914/1184 2115/994
Weekly Net: 730 1121
     Cumulative: 173812 173082
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 331/57 498/41
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 350/125 464/108
McClellan  Oscillator 18 3
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 654 682
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 61.8 58.2
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.6 17.5
Wed. AAII  -Bull  32.8 31.6
Bear  34.2 33.5
US$-WSJ 99.7 100.5
3-box rev Bullish%-  71 73
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (8.2B)
MMF flows Change in $B (5.7B) 19.7B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  490B DEC:
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.5 2.5
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.2 1.2
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.9 114

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, January 30, 2017

20 K - SO WHAT

It took 50 years for the DJIA to grow from 1,000 (in 1966) to now, for an average annual gain of 2.5%; Before that it grew from 40 at its inception in 1896 (if memory serves) to 1,000 - 70 years, at a rate of 2.8%. Big Deal, especially considering the addition in 2004 of the FANG-type stocks and the Fed led rally from '09, which makes the chart look parabolically dangerous.
Also parabolic is the chart of Insider Selling in Barron's this week, although that correlation to market movement is not very tight (Insider Buying is better.
Also Fake News - if adjusted for Inflation, the Nasdaq should be around 7,000, not 5,600 if you use 40% compounded Infl. from the year 2000.

Outstanding numbers for last week's Sentiment columns below were still the margin debt (second highest since 1930); AAII Bears outnumbered the Bulls % for the first time in awhile, and the $$ flowed dramatically from equity funds back into MMFs week over week. Finally, NYSE new highs to lows broke the 10:1 ratio.

Date   1/27/2017 1/20/2017
Indices: DJIA  20093 19827
  NAZ  5660 5555
SPX  2294 2271
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 8.8/4.1 6.9/3.4*
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.15 2.03
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  67 64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 10.6 11.5
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 72.9 74.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2115/994 1222/1869
Weekly Net: 1121 -647
     Cumulative: 173082 171961
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 498/41 213/42
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 464/108 231/79
McClellan  Oscillator 3 -8
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 682 627
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 58.2 60.6
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.5 17.3
Wed. AAII  -Bull  31.6 37
Bear  33.5 32.7
US$-WSJ 100.5 100.8
3-box rev Bullish%-  73 73
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (3.7B)
MMF flows Change in $B 19.7B (24.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  500B NOV.
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.5 2.5
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.2 1.2
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114 113.7

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, January 23, 2017

SO FAR, ,,NOT FAR

Pretty boring market so far this year; mostly down last week: averages, breadth, new highs/lows. Even the $ dropped, with Trump's thoughts of weakening it for the country's benefit. This, of course, strengthens gold, which has dropped from a 19 handle to 11, now breeching 12.
Here are the numbers:

Date 1/20/2017 1/13/2017
Indices: DJIA  19827 19885
NAZ  5555 5574
SPX  2271 2274
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 6.9/3.4* 8.9/4.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.03 2.12
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  64 64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.5 11.2
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 74.2 74.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1222/1869 1757/1339
Weekly Net: -647 418
     Cumulative: 171961 172608
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 213/42 295/39
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 231/79 308/79
McClellan  Oscillator -8 17
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 627 644
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 60.6 58.4
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.3 18.3
Wed. AAII  -Bull  37 43.6
Bear  32.7 27
US$-WSJ 100.8 101.2
3-box rev Bullish%-  73 73
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 3.0B
MMF flows Change in $B (24.7B) (22.5B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  500B NOV.
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.5 2.4
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.2 1.2
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.7 114

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, January 16, 2017

BULL, BEAR, OR CHICKEN

This week in Barron's weekly mag Ben Levisohn opened his column with how this year's market (so far) resembles putting your phone call on Hold. After a Huge rally ending 2016, stocks are pretty flat, but that may end this Friday with Trump's inauguration (hopefully peaceful).
Volume was back to normal, with an edge to speculative (Nasdaq over NYSE), MSI stocks on a Buy signal rose to a new recent high of 74 as did the Bullish Consensus, while VIX "slud" to 11.2.  The Inflation Indicator - TIP hit 114 for the first time in awhile, and Margin Interest hit $500B, near its $507B high - scary, when you think about having to cover that in a major slide -margin calls. MMF outflows doubled from the prior week Here are the numbers:


Date 1/13/17 1/6/2017
Indices: DJIA  19885 19963
NAZ  5574 5521
SPX  2274 2277
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 8.9/4.2 7.2/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.12 2
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  64 67
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.2 11.3
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 74.2 69.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1757/1339 2369/724
Weekly Net: 418 1645
     Cumulative: 172608 172190
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 295/39 360/27
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 308/79 362/67
McClellan  Oscillator 17 21.4
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 644 577
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 58.4 60.2
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 18.3 18.4
Wed. AAII  -Bull  43.6 46.2
Bear  27 25.2
US$-WSJ 101.2 103
3-box rev Bullish%-  73 72
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (2.1B)
MMF flows Change in $B (22.5B) (11.3B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  NOV. 500B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.4 2.42
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.2 1.21
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114 113.5

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, January 9, 2017

"TRUMPETER'S" SERENADE

In the past Century Joseph Schumpeter advanced the theory of Creative Destruction, in which it takes breaking an egg to make an omelet. Present Donald Trump seeks to do the same, in many venues.
Over the year end break fund flows from MMFs reversed from  $16B Inflows to #11B Outflows in January's first week. Per Schwab's great Research team, last year saw the greatest exit from equity mutual funds in a decade, mostly into ETFs (probably Index).
Sentiment wise, the Bulls are running, for the I I and the AAII, with Investors' Intelligence just over 60. This overconfidence might not bode well for the immediate future. All else seems normal:

Date 1/6/2017 12/30/2016
Indices: DJIA  19963 19762
NAZ  5521 5383
SPX  2277 2238
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 7.2/3.6 5.3/2.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2 2.12
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  67 65
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.3 14
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 69.8 68%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2369/724 1223/1868
Weekly Net: 1645 -645
     Cumulative: 172190 170545
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 360/27 228/6
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 362/67 325/125
McClellan  Oscillator 21.4 -8
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 577 462
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 60.2 60.2
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 18.4 18.4
Wed. AAII  -Bull  46.2 45.6
Bear  25.2 25.7
US$-WSJ 103 102.4
3-box rev Bullish%-  72 70
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 0.7B
MMF flows Change in $B (11.3B) 15.9B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  500B November
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.42 2.46%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.21 1.22%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.5 113.1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Tuesday, January 3, 2017

SANTA CLAUS RALLY "SLAY RIDE"

Not a pretty week to end 2016, but it is in Xmas RED!!
With lower Holiday Volume, most Indicators showed the Old Ennui - UNCH. Exceptions were money flow reversal in MMFs (Money Markets), and margin debt - recorded monthly neared record highs. Could pressure any major decline with margin calls.

Date   12/30/2016 12/23/2016
Indices: DJIA  19762 19933
  NAZ  5383 5462
SPX  2238 2263
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 5.3/2.5 7.5/3.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.12 2.14
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  65 69
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14 11.4
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 68% 69%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1223/1868 1815/1289
Weekly Net: -645 526
     Cumulative: 170545 171190
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 228/6 314/68
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 325/125 457/149
McClellan  Oscillator -8 9
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 462 466
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull N/A 59.8
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs N/A 19.6
Wed. AAII  -Bull  45.6 44.6
Bear  25.7 29.2
US$-WSJ 102.4 102.9
3-box rev Bullish%-  70 70
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 0
MMF flows Change in $B 15.9B (20.8B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  500B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.46% 2.54%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.22% 1.20%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.1 112.5

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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