Monday, November 28, 2016

BLACK FRIDAY MATTERS

Making America Great again - record sales from retail stores last week, especially electronics (gamers?). The downside to technology cutting costs (and employment) from factories to farms, is (just like outsourced workers) that they do not CONSUME !! If we bring back jobs to U S, some things may cost more, but workers will be spending $$ that they earn here.
Another record set last week - back-to-back new highs in all four major stock markets - something that has not happened since....December 31, 1999 " A Year That Will Go Down..."
Another sodden fact: from Jason Trennert on Wealthtrack - 50% of the national Debt, which is now HUGE, will rollover within three years, just as rates are starting to rise!!
There has never been a year after a two-term President that a Recession has NOT occurred.

Sentiment Indicators are all Bullish, but getting extended - Breadth and Sentiment.
The Trend is your Friend Until it Bends at the End!!

Here are the Sentiment numbers:

Date   11/25/2016 11/18/2016
Indices: DJIA  19152nh 18868
  NAZ  5398 5321
SPX  2213 2181
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 6.0/3.0* 10.4/4.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2 2.12
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  60 60
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.3 12.9
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 64% 58%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2454/662 1982/1149
Weekly Net: 1792 833
     Cumulative: 170972 169180
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 451/69 450/355
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 628/84 680/135
McClellan  Oscillator 59 22
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 34 -182
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 55.9 51
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 21.6 23.5
Wed. AAII  -Bull  49.9 46.7
Bear  22.1 26.6
US$-WSJ 101.5 101.3
3-box rev Bullish%-  63 61
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 23.2B
MMF flows Change in $B 18.8B 3.3B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  501B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.36% 2.36%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.12% 1.07%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.1 112.2

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, November 21, 2016

1980 (Reagan) LIKE 2017 (Trump)?

Not exactly, says Barron's
Market Value (CAP) to GDP: 40%    196%
Bond Yields 14%   2%
Debt to GDP  135%    251%
Protectionism: Tear Down that Wall   Build a Wall

With Bond yields jumping (at least short term) $$ are coming out of Bond Funds into stocks. Sentiment Indicators regression into quietude - VIX, newsletters, stocks on BUY signals. and Breadth back positive during the rally,
Here are the numbers:
Date   11/18/2016 11/11/2016
Indices: DJIA  18868 18847
  NAZ  5321 5237
SPX  2181 2164
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 10.4/4.9 11.6/5.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.12 1.97
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  60 61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.9 14.2
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 58% 39%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1982/1149 1781/1355
Weekly Net: 833 426
     Cumulative: 169180 168347
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 450/355 394/331
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 680/135 530/271
McClellan  Oscillator 22 4
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -182 -299
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 51 Nov.8-42.9
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 23.5 25.7
Wed. AAII  -Bull  46.7 Nov.9-38
Bear  26.6 29.3
US$-WSJ 101.3 99
3-box rev Bullish%-  61 57
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (6.3B)
MMF flows Change in $B 3.3B 5.9B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.36% 2.15%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.07% 0.92%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 112.2 114.3



With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, November 14, 2016

BACK IN THE BLACK

Markets hit the ground running after election - (both ways), and Sentiment Indicators also jumped. Volume hit 11.6B on the Naz (Nasdaq), 5.9B on the NY; New Highs/Lows went positive again, and Treasury yields jumped up.
Also Bullish was a lowering of put/call ratio, TIP (Inflation ETF), and  VIX (Volatility).
Newsletters come out early in the week, so were not  a factor of the Election.
Here are the numbers:


Date 11/11/2016 11/4/2016
Indices: DJIA  18847 17888
NAZ  5237 5046
SPX  2164 2085
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 11.6/5.9 9.7/4.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.97 1.98
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  61 80
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14.2 22.5
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 39% 36%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1781/1355 726/2403
Weekly Net: 426 -1677
     Cumulative: 168347 167921
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 394/331 96/191
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 530/271 134/415
McClellan  Oscillator 4 -60
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -299 -277
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull Nov.8-42.9 41.7
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 25.7 24.3
Wed. AAII  -Bull  Nov.9-38 23
Bear  29.3 34.3
US$-WSJ 99 96.9
3-box rev Bullish%-  57 50
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (5.9B)
MMF flows Change in $B 5.9B 26.2B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.15% 1.78%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.92% 0.79%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114.3 115.9

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, November 7, 2016

HILLARALLY (Nov.7, 2016):

Despite the FBI fakeout (against all previous custom in the last 60 days before election) which caused the worst time decline in stocks - 9 days - since 1980, today's super rally assumes that Hillary will win the office tomorrow ( when incumbents remain, stocks rise).
The rally was not a surprise to a couple Sentiment Indicators: the CBOE put/call ratio hit 80 (first time in awhile), and the McClellan Oscillator hit minus 60 (below my -50 Buy signal). Bonds also spiked up.Strictly short term, however.
To balance out the Bear side, the Delta MSI Index ( stocks on buy signals, like Bullish%) at 36%, is in Bear area, as the B% dropped to 50. Margin Interest is near a record, due to low rates; finally, for the first time since Feb.'s selloff, the NYSE New Highs to Lows turned Negative as with the A/D line, and Volume was heavy for the ugly week.
Here are the numbers:

Date

11/4/2016
10/28/2016
Indices:
DJIA
17888
18161

NAZ
5046
5190

SPX
2085
2126
WklyVolume (Bshs).
naz/ny….
9.7/4.9
8.6/4.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish
1.98
1.91
Sentiment:
put/call-CBOE
80
66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8
22.5
16.2
DeltaMSI-50%
MAC crossover
36%
45%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..
726/2403
887/2252
Weekly Net:

-1677
-1365
     Cumulative:
167921
169598
Weekly
NYSE hi/low…
96/191
226/128
New Hi's/Low's
Nasdaq h/l
134/415
239/257
McClellan
Oscillator
-60
-45
McClellanSum
.+750/-1000
-277
26
Newsletter
Inv.Intel -Bull
41.7
47.1
Surveys-Tues
Bear:-5yrs
24.3
23.1
Wed.
AAII  -Bull
23
24.8

Bear
34.3
34.1
US$-WSJ

96.9
98.3
3-box rev
Bullish%-
50
66
US equity -ICI
Fund Flows
WeekLate
WeekLate
MMF flows
Change in $B
26.2B
16.1B
MargDebt- top (300M)
monthly

501B
10-yr Tsy yield
hi= stock buying
1.78%
1.85%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation
0.79%
0.86%
TIP (ETF)
Inflation
115.9
116



With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, October 31, 2016

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Nothing is Scary with this stock market - neither today nor for the past few weeks; actually since their all time highs in August, The Dow 30, S&P 500 and Nasdaq have been moving sideways, with a slight downward cast. Signs of technical weakness are starting to show up in the Sentiment/Breadth Indicators, however:
The recently added Delta MSI (3600 stocks breaking Moving Averages) broke through its heretofor bullish line two weeks ago for the first time (below 50) a Bearish sign; the Nasdaq New Lows vs. Highs took the lead for the first time since early summer, although the NYSE has not yet. The McClellan Summation Index is poised to break down through the Zero line, as its Oscillator maintains its negative breadth action.
Finally, the Dollar and Bond yields are starting to ramp up, with the rate hike imminent at December's FOMC meetup.
Here are the numbers:

Date> 10/28/2016 10/21/2016
Indices: DJIA  18161 18145
NAZ  5190 5257
SPX  2126 2141
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 8.6/4.5 7.7/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.91 1.97
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  66 59
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 16.2 13.3
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 45% 48%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 887/2252 1968/1151
Weekly Net: -1365 835
     Cumulative: 169598 170963
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 226/128 185/70
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 239/257 165/190
McClellan  Oscillator -45 -5
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 26 135
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 47.1 42.9
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 23.1 23.8
Wed. AAII  -Bull  24.8 23.7
Bear  34.1 37.8
US$-WSJ 98.3 98.6
3-box rev Bullish%-  66 61
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (4.5B)
MMF flows Change in $B 16.1B (13.5B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  501B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 1.85% 1.74%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.86% 0.83%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 116 116.1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, October 24, 2016

RALLY HO (?)

So where's the Hillary Rally? By a wide margin, when the Incumbent party is polled to win the upcoming Presidential Election, the stock market rallies - since August 15 (2 months ago) it has been in a shallow but steady decline of nearly 2%.
 For the first time, my newly added Sentiment Indicator, the Delta SMI, went below 50, a Bearish sign for rising stocks; also new, the Nasdaq New Lows beat New Highs for the week. Stocks were actually slightly UP on the week, but on Low Volume, a technical divergence. Normally this time of year stocks start a rally into February, but the outlook for Bonds does not look good as rates start to climb higher (Prices lower).
Here are the results:
Date>   10/21/2016 10/14/2016
Indices: DJIA  18145 18138
  NAZ  5257 5214
SPX  2141 2132
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 7.7/3.9 8.0/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.97 2.05
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  59 68
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.3 16.1
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 48% 55%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1968/1151 1003/2132
Weekly Net: 835 -1129
     Cumulative: 170963 170128
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 185/70 202/79
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 165/190 226/186
McClellan  Oscillator -5 -49
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 135 217
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 42.9 46.1
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 23.8 23.1
Wed. AAII  -Bull  23.7 25.5
Bear  37.8 33.7
US$-WSJ 98.6 98.1
3-box rev Bullish%-  61 63
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (3.7B)
MMF flows Change in $B (13.5B) (6.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  AUG:
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 1.74% 1.80%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.83% 0.84%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 116.1 115.6
 

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, October 17, 2016

ELECT THIS!!

I recently read that they hold Elections in November because that is when the turkeys are picked for Thanksgiving! Technical Analysis says that if the incumbent party is to be re-elected, the market rises into November - so far, not too good for Hilary.

Last week was a definite SOW ( Sign Of Weakness in Wyckoff terms) for the stock market. Breadth was terrible, and the Dollar was stronger - hurting Int'l companies.

Here are the numbers:

Date>   10/14/2016 10/7/2016
Indices: DJIA  18138 18240
  NAZ  5214 5292
SPX  2132 2153
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 8.0/3.9 8.3/4.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.05 1.84
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  68 62
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 16.1 13.5
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 55% 60%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1003/2132 1076/2047
Weekly Net: -1129 -971
     Cumulative: 170128 171257
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 202/79 222/56
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 226/186 283/127
McClellan  Oscillator -49 -42
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 217 437
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 46.1 46.7
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 23.1 22.8
Wed. AAII  -Bull  25.5 28.8
Bear  33.7 27.9
US$-WSJ 98.1 96.5
3-box rev Bullish%-  63 67
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (8.8B)
MMF flows Change in $B (6.2B) (25B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  AUG: 471B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 1.80% 1.72%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.84% 0.83%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 115.6 116.6

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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