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Tuesday, August 26, 2014

BETTER LATE...

After a whirlwind wedding in Redding, I settled in to do the latest Sentiment readings:
Commercial gold traders still remain high in selling - down slightly from the prior week; insider selling of stocks is still also high - both officers/board and 10% owners.
The AAII Bulls jumped up 6 % points, Bears down slightly.
I shall be off again on vaca next week with no means to update this column.

Here are the numbers:

Date> 8/22/2014 8/15/2014
Indices: DJIA  17001 16662
  NAZ  4557 4464
SPX  1988 1955
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 7.3/2.8 8.0/3.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.6 2.7
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  54 62
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.5 13.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2318/914 2318/909
Weekly Net: 1404 1409
     Cumulative: 165033 163629
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 405/52 234/79
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 210/124 157/153
McClellan  Oscillator 35 29
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 378 100
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 49.5 46.4
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 16.2 16.2
AAII  -Bull :wed. 46.1 39.8
Bear  23.7 27
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 5/(7) 4/(6)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (148k) (161k)
CEOinsider selling 38:1 21:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 160/50 160:60(50sale)
3-box rev Bullish%-  75 71
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (3.9B)
MMF flows Change in $B 6.7B 10.5B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.50% 0.41%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, August 18, 2014

DOG DAYS

We are now in the Dog Days of summer - vacation time for most Europeans, Wall Streeters, and myself (Wedding in Redding, then my favorite coastal resort). Volume on the NYSE and Nasdaq was down last week. However, Insider sales of 10% stockholders jumped last week, although other insiders ( board members, officers) remained at the same pace. This blog has only recently broken these down, after keeping Sector Sales to Buys ratios for years. Probably not a meaningful signal, as the highest Sector selling in years was back in May of 2009 (when I started my DITM strategy). Sellers then were 235:1 !!!

Just as the markets bounced up off the Support levels last week, so did the McClellan Summation off the zero line. Breadth was strong - more about money flows in my Examiner.com column this week:   http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Here are the numbers for the past two weeks:

Date> 8/15/2014 8/8/2014
Indices: DJIA  16662 16553
  NAZ  4464 4370
SPX  1955 1931
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 8.0/3.0 8.9/3.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.7 2.6
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  62 69
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.2 15.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2318/909 1987/1239
Weekly Net: 1409 750
     Cumulative: 163629 162220
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 234/79 106/196
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 157/153 94/253
McClellan  Oscillator 29 -20
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 100 11
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 46.4 50.5
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 16.2 17.1
AAII  -Bull :wed. 39.8 30.9
Bear  27 38.2
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 4/(6) (2)/5
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (161k) (132k)
CEOinsider selling 21:1 22:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 160:60(50sale) 150:30
3-box rev Bullish%-  71 70
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (3.1B)
MMF flows Change in $B 10.5B 12.8B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.41% 0.45%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, August 11, 2014

HEDGE FUN

Thanks to a surprising huge rally Friday, the week came up positive for most markets, despite the worst retracement in months - hopefully that was enough of a respite. Technicians, on the other hand, require a filter of more time (3-4 days" closes beyond a technical break), etc. to resume trend.

With August recently being a weak market month, and Sept.-Oct. even moreso, it would seem advisable to employ hedges on existing portfolios throughout this period, until the election. For more, see:    http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

The resumption of uptrend also  quieted down Sentiment Indicators, including the VIX, which jumped on the downturn.
MMF (money market flows) reversed from outflows the week before to inflows. AAII  Bears dominated for a change, and the McClellan Summation (of the Oscillator) is nearing the zero line - for what that is worth. Just as the SPX bounced up off the 1900 mark after failing to reach the 2000 barrier.
Here are the numbers for last week:


Date> 8/8/2014 8/1/2014
Indices: DJIA  16553 16493
  NAZ  4370 4352
SPX  1931 1925
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 8.9/3.4 9.9/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.6 2.8
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  69 68
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 15.8 17
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1987/1239 484/2772
Weekly Net: 750 -2288
     Cumulative: 162220 161470
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 106/196 260/191
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 94/253 149/254
McClellan  Oscillator -20 -89
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 11 287
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 50.5 55.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 17.1 16.2
AAII  -Bull :wed. 30.9 31.1
Bear  38.2 31.1
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k (2)/5 .3/5
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (132k) (149k)
CEOinsider selling 22:1 22:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 150:30 175:25
3-box rev Bullish%-  70 74
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (8.9B)
MMF flows Change in $B 12.8B (8.8B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  464B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1116/440/274
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.45% 0.48%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Sunday, July 27, 2014

Running Out Of Steam?

Both Breadth and Sentiment are catching the apathy of summertime, as indices fail to pierce the 000s ahead - the DJIA and the SPX. Advance/declines waver from week to week, positive to negative; the McClellan Oscillator is negative for the third week in a row, as the Summation recedes into a 5 handle. Dumb money is exceeding smart money - see more about this at:

Commitment of Traders show higher buying by small traders, except in Gold, where the commercials are huge sellers!

Here are the numbers :

Date> 7/26/2014 7/18/2014
Indices: DJIA  16960 17100
  NAZ  4449 4432
SPX  1978 1978
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 8.7/2.9 9.8/3.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 3 2.8
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  60 57
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.7 12.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1503/1720 1679/1538
Weekly Net: -217 141
     Cumulative: 163758 163975
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 435/91 386/62
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 201/145 150/154
McClellan  Oscillator -31 -25
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 599 711
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 56.5 56.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 17.2 15.1
AAII  -Bull :wed. 29.6 32.4
Bear  29.9 28.5
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k .2/6 .1.11
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (160k) (157k)
CEOinsider selling 44:1 49:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 175:20 225:5
3-box rev Bullish%-  83 83
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (2.2B)
MMF flows Change in $B (2.2B) (10.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  MAY 438B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B MAY 1069/428/276
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.49% 0.48%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, July 21, 2014

ZERO TOLERANCE


The DJIA (30) so far has held above the triple zero breakthrough, although the broader market - SPX (500) has not yet pierced the zero mark of 2000. Various indicators - seasonal, cyclical, technical, and even fundamental- are suggesting a breather after 5 1/2 years of Bull. Although the Investors Intelligence Bulls have dropped below the 60% mark (to 56%), the Bears are now at 15.1%. For more reasons, please go to:   http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard


Wild rides in the markets, even gold - with 30 and 20 point swings; commercial insider sellers are still huge despite the global turbulence.  

Here are last week's numbers:

Date> 7/18/2014 7/11/2014
Indices: DJIA  17100 16943
NAZ  4432 4415
SPX  1978 1967
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 9.8/3.5 8.7/3.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.8 2.9
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  57 60
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.1 12.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1679/1538 1173/2070
Weekly Net: 141 -897
     Cumulative: 163975 163834
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 386/62 309/60
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 150/154 137/103
McClellan  Oscillator -25 -38
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 711 894
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 56.6 60.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 15.1 15.2
AAII  -Bull :wed. 32.4 37.6
Bear  28.5 28.7
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k .1.11 .6/1
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (157k) (166k)nh
CEOinsider selling 49:1 104:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 225:5 220:20
3-box rev Bullish%-  83 84
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (1.8B)
MMF flows Change in $B (10.2B) 5.4B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.48% 0.45%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Tuesday, July 15, 2014

A Day Late...

and $1,000.00 short. Due to my desktop computer blowing up on me ( my first traumatic time) and buying a new one with countless hours of mental anguish, this comes on Tuesday this week.

Post-holiday ennui set in with sellers taking profits from the record highs, yet sentiment grew more complacent. Put/calls went from 52 to 60, although the VIX did rise. Declines vastly outnumbered the advances, with New Highs still positive.Inv. Intell Bears dropped to the 15 handle, not seen in awhile. Commercial gold traders foresaw something last week with record selling - 166K, a new high, and gold dropped $30 on Monday, 10 more today. Must have been the Barron's bullish interview!

Here are the numbers:


Date> 7/11/2014 7/3/14*hol
Indices: DJIA  16943 17068
  NAZ  4415 4485
SPX  1967 1985
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 8.7/3.0 6.3/2.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.9 2.42
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  60 52
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.1 10.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1173/2070 1944/1276
Weekly Net: -897 668
     Cumulative: 163834 164731
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 309/60 599/30
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 137/103 307/51
McClellan  Oscillator -38 5
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 894 1053
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 60.6 57.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 15.2 16.1
AAII  -Bull :wed. 37.6 38.5
Bear  28.7 22.4
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k .6/1 n/a
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (166k)nh n/a
CEOinsider selling 104:1 20:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 220:20 175:25
3-box rev Bullish%-  84 84
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (1.1B)
MMF flows Change in $B 5.4B 13.1B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.45% 0.51%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, July 7, 2014

HOLDING YOUR BREADTH

Market breadth is usually measured by Advancing stocks versus Declining ones, or New Highs versus New Lows. In this incessant Bull market rally, higher advances have been the norm, as have the New Highs, especially in the NYSE. Such an upward right  translation is thought of as a strong market, with the majority of investors on the Buy side. At some  point that will change - suddenly and drastically. As Harry Domash cited at one Money Show talk I attended: The Trend is your Friend, until it Bends at the End!

Usually a 10 to 1 ratio of the above indicators is something to be monitored, being a bit unusual; last week, however, the NYSE New Hi/Lo total reached a 20:1 ratio - something I've never seen before. Thanks greatly to the Fed's zero interest rate policy (ZIRP), this market keeps getting stronger. Barron's columnist Randall Forsyth opines that many corporations, such as Monsanto, are using low cost debt to buyback their own stock which could perpetuate the move.

How long this will last is unpredictable, but the last 3 Augusts have seen declines of at least 3%, also reports Barron's. Last week, all three major indices set new highs - the DJIA, SPX, and Nasdaq. Market action around holidays is usually positive, especially if around the first of the month. The VIX - volatility indicator- also hit a recent low, signifying complacency.

Finally, as seen below, for what it's worth in indicating Inflation, the 2-year Treasury yield it a recent high of .51%; the 10-year yield in France, however, is at a 300- year low, with Germany and Japan close behind.


Here are the numbers from the holiday-shortened week: 


Date> 7/3/14*hol 6/27/2014
Indices: DJIA  17068 16851
  NAZ  4485 4397
SPX  1985 1960
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 6.3/2.6 9.5/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.42 2.44
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  52 53
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 10.3 11.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1944/1276 1817/1414
Weekly Net: 668 403
     Cumulative: 164731 164063
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 599/30 556/66
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 307/51 224/98
McClellan  Oscillator 5 13
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 1053 1000
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 57.6 60.2
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 16.1 16.3
AAII  -Bull :wed. 38.5 37.2
Bear  22.4 21.1
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k n/a       .6/6
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 n/a (131k)
CEOinsider selling 20:1 52:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 175:25 175:20
3-box rev Bullish%-  84 83
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (2.6B)
MMF flows Change in $B 13.1B 5B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  428B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1069/428/276
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.51% 0.46%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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