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Monday, March 2, 2015

In Like A Lamb

March begins quietly, both in weather and in stocks. Last week saw Sentiment Indicators more in the neutral zone, but pointing in a positive direction. My cum Advance/Decline total reached another all time high on the NYSE, as its weekly A/D almost reached a 10:1 ratio - SOS.

VIX slid to a 13 handle, as Barron's reports the average at 19, but gold Commercials (read smart money) still remain at the high Selling level, but receding.. Still in the Commitment of Traders section, small SPX traders are shorting more each week, as large ones (smart??) are Buying.

Most significant, but not unusual this time of year (tax time): CEO Insider selling by Sector jumped to over  Million, with the ratio at 68:1, but Board members and 10% owners remained quiet.

Here are the #s:

Date> 2/27/2015 2/20/2015
Indices: DJIA  18132 18140
  NAZ  4963 4955
SPX  2104 2110
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.2/3.7 6.7/3.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.49 2.23
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  63 56
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.3 14.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1714/1541 1679/1543
Weekly Net: 173 136
     Cumulative: 166730 166557
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 419/55 332/37
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 343/98 263/84
McClellan  Oscillator 9 24
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 643 556
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 59.5 56.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 34.1 34.1
AAII  -Bull :wed. 45.4 47
Bear  20.3 17.9
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 2k/(16k) 4k/(9k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (136k) (144k)
CEOinsider selling .68:1 .42:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s .150:30 .160:15
3-box rev Bullish%-  74 74
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay 0
MMF flows Change in $B 10.3B (9.0B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  445B na
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1219/424/308
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.63% 0.64%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114.06 112.48

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, February 23, 2015

New Highs

The DJIA and SPX made new highs last week after the Presidential Holiday, with the Nasdaq a few points below its 15-year bubble high of 5049.

The upmove during the week regressed most Indicators to their mean, even Gold commercials shorted less, although still high, as gold makes a 7-week low.

My favorite Bull/Bear survey - the AAII individual investor poll- skewed to the Bull (complacent) side, as the two week totals showed 35% to 40 to 47 last week; Bears slid from 32% to 20, down to 17.
Here are the numbers:

Date> 2/20/2015 2/13/2015
Indices: DJIA  18140 18019
  NAZ  4955 4893
SPX  2110 2097
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 6.7/3.0 9.1/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.23 2.33
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  56 62
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14.3 14.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1679/1543 2119/1143
Weekly Net: 136 976
     Cumulative: 166557 166421
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 332/37 339/63
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 263/84 259/125
McClellan  Oscillator 24 32
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 556 485
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 56.6 52.5
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 34.1 15.2
AAII  -Bull :wed. 47 40
Bear  17.9 20.3
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 4k/(9k) 3k/(7k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (144k) (171k)
CEOinsider selling .42:1 .38:1-1.1M
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s .160:15 .160:50
3-box rev Bullish%-  74 71
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay 0
MMF flows Change in $B (9.0B) 4.3B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  na na
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1260/415/296
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.64% 0.65%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 112.48 112.66

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, February 16, 2015

President's Day

As shown by the numbers below, the SPX (S&P 500)  hit an all-time high, with the DJIA 30 close behind. The Nasdaq hit a 14-year high, just off the 2000 bubble. Breadth, as measured by advance/declines, was also strong, with my cumulative A/D at a new high as well.
Lots of Insider Selling, a little early for tax time, but Insider Buying also picked up, so the ratio was 38:1 sellers - not a record but pretty strong. $1.1B in selling, with half of it in Consumer Sectors.
MMFs had a net Gain for the first time since Jan. 2. Gold commercials still are selling bigtime, but not at the record level of last week.
The Bull looks strong, as new highs mean no previous sellers to dump getting even. The Wyckoff model, a West Coast favorite, shows a possible UTAD ( upthrust after distribution) which could be a fakeout before going lower. But IMO, so much global unrest, 50% of securities inflows in the U.S. is coming from outside our borders, for safety.

Here are the numbers:

Date> 2/13/2015 2/6/2015
Indices: DJIA  18019 17824
NAZ  4893 4744
SPX  2097 2055
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.1/3.9 10.3/4.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.33 2.29
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  62 64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14.7 17.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2119/1143 2262/1002
Weekly Net: 976 1260
     Cumulative: 166421 165445
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 339/63 486/111
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 259/125 207/185
McClellan  Oscillator 32 16
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 485 414
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 52.5 49
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 15.2 16.3
AAII  -Bull :wed. 40 35.5
Bear  20.3 32.4
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 3k/(7k) 1k/0k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (171k) (203k)
CEOinsider selling .38:1-1.1M .50:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s .160:50 .160:35
3-box rev Bullish%-  71 68
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay 3.5B
MMF flows Change in $B 4.3B (16.4B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  n/a
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.65% 0.65%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 112.66 113.96

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, February 9, 2015

Dead of Winter -II

Date> 2/6/2015 1/30/2015
Indices: DJIA  17824 17164
  NAZ  4744 4635
SPX  2055 1995
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 10.3/4.5 9.9/4.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.29 2.25
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  64 71
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17.3 21
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2262/1002 1216/2032
Weekly Net: 1260 -816
     Cumulative: 165445 164185
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 486/111 616/245
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 207/185 216/257
McClellan  Oscillator 16 -11
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 414 297
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 49 53.1
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 16.3 16.3
AAII  -Bull :wed. 35.5 44.2
Bear  32.4 22.4
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 1k/0k 3k/13k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (203k) (206k)
CEOinsider selling .50:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s .160:35 .160:35
3-box rev Bullish%-  68 62
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay 3.5B
MMF flows Change in $B (16.4B) (2.5B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  n/a n/a
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1260/415/296
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.65% 0.45%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.96 115.55

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Dead of Winter

Despite increased Volatility in stocks due to the cessation of Fed's QE steadying hand, almost all Sentiment Indicators are in the neutral, non-extreme range these days. These include (see matrix below) NYSE to NASDAQ Volumes (speculation if OTC is extreme); CBOE put to call option ratio;
VIX -back down to teens; McClellan Oscillator and Summation Indices hanging around zero (a breadth, or Advance/Decline momentum signal); newsletter surveys - both wire newsletters and AAII (individual investor) Bulls vs. Bears; and various Insider selling stuck in a rut. This usually jumps around Income Tax time.

The notable exceptions, again, last week were Gold short sellers in the Commercial Traders' area, which was shown by last week's big drop from $1300 to just above $1200/oz. A Barron's oil analyst notes that the Longs in oil have not yet capitulated into a Selling Climax, and expects oil to reach $20 a barrel - now that's an extreme! 


Finally, for what it's worth the 2-year Treasury yield jumped up to 0.65%, from 0.45% last week - also extreme. Due to the length of this blog - see next blog for numbers- here are the numbers:

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, February 2, 2015

January DEFECT

For the fourth time in five weeks, the markets ended negative, making obvious the January Barometer prognostication for a great year dubious. Any technician knows that the only guarantee of a projection, based on a model of Januarys from 1928, is that the market will probably not exactly replicate the model - however, the market does rhyme!
The negative January model shows a sharp decline in January !, followed by a shallower on in Feb; an up  March, then down into June. Whereupon the market rises until the year end, with about a 2% gain. This is based on 33 DOWN Januarys, versus 54 UPs, and 17 MORE than 5% UPs! Still, it beats Zero % MMFs and CDs!

New Highs on the NYSE broke up through the 600 level, whereas the NASDAQ stayed negative. Once again, commercial shorts on GOLD set a new Record High! Over 200. This does not bode well for future gold, as the Dollar gets stronger.

Insider Selling by Sector continues to fall, in ratio to Buying - at 14:1, with Media by far the largest Buyers! Spectrum?? Selling was pretty much across the board. A comment posted to my blog asked when the 235:1 ratio occurred, so I checked. It was May 2011; I also saw that previous highs were all in April - 2009,  2010, and April 2011 - indicating perhaps selling to give to the IRS.

Technically, things look pretty bleak, short term - two of my fellow Adjunct Prof.s from GGU noted the possible (?) H&S Top formation - yet to be confirmed by a Neckline breech or Volume; I see a possible Symmetrical triangle (positive ?) short term, if the DJIA and SPX bounce what appears to be Support levels at 17,100 and 1990.


EFTs, or Exchange Traded Funds, which have been expanding for awhile ( especially Index ETFs for 9 years now), finally reported this week (see below), as Int'l and Bond flows stayed the same.

Today's market (Feb.2) is showing at least a temporary ceasing of stocks at their Support levels, as well as Oil, Dollar, and Gold trends. Time will tell. I like three days' closes for confirmation.
Here are the numbers:


Date> 1/30/2015 1/23/2015
Indices: DJIA  17164 17672
  NAZ  4635 4757
SPX  1995 2051
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.9/4.4 7.3/3.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.25 2.21
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  71 62
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 21 16.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1216/2032 2083/1152
Weekly Net: -816 931
     Cumulative: 164185 165001
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 616/245 516/165
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 216/257 174/243
McClellan  Oscillator -11 16
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 297 257
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 53.1 49
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 16.3 17.4
AAII  -Bull :wed. 44.2 37.1
Bear  22.4 30.8
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 3k/13k 4k/12k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (206k) (178k)
CEOinsider selling .18:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s .160:35 .160:30
3-box rev Bullish%-  62 64
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay .9B
MMF flows Change in $B (2.5B) (1.0B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  n/a
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1260/415/296
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.45% 0.49%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114.17

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, January 26, 2015

The January Effect

According to the model from 1928 to 2012, if the DJIA can end the week/month positive (above 17,823) and the S&P 500 above 2058, the average annual return for stocks should @10.9%, the consensus opinion!! Markets were up 78% of the time. Failing that, even a down jones could end the year up 2.8%, about 50% of the time.
According to the above chart (my latest technological breakthough) although we seem to be in a deflationary spiral - locally as well as globally- the 2-year Treasury rate has risen steadily for the last 12 months. The TIPs ETF at the bottom of my grid (below) has also been rising, but well off the 2012 highs.  
Even the Patriots balls seem to be in deflation!
In another great article from Barron's by Steve Sears, the Option guy, he posits that 2015 will bring flat Volatility in the SPX, but a higher one in the VIX. This bodes well for the return of my DITM (Deep-In-The-Money) covered call strategy that did well before the Fed markets kicked in, lowering the premium in call options - hence the lower returns. Although the strategy has the benefit of hedging (selling a call lower than buying the stock), if it really drops, it can erase much of the lesser gains of successful DITM trades. As they say, (Fed) stocks ride the Escalator up but take the Elevator down!!
The stunning Sentiment Indicator last week was the sharp, record-breaking rise of Commercial shorts in Gold, even though it has been climbing lately, above $1300. I would hope that eventually it would cause short covering/buying. On the contrary, CEO Insider Selling (by Sector), and other Insiders, have not shown the madness of the prior year. They dropped from 73 to 1 two weeks ago, down to 18:1. Finally, the AAII Bull/Bear survey moved quite a bit to the middle again (Bullish FOR the markets)
Here are the numbers:

  
Date> 1/23/2015 1/16/2015
Indices: DJIA  17672 17511
  NAZ  4757 4634
SPX  2051 2019
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 7.3/3.3 9.9/4.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.21 2.25
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  62 70
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 16.7 20.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2083/1152 1448/1796
Weekly Net: 931 -348
     Cumulative: 165001 164070
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 516/165 479/339
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 174/243 207/294
McClellan  Oscillator 16 -2
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 257 227
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 49 48
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 17.4 16.3
AAII  -Bull :wed. 37.1 46.1
Bear  30.8 21.5
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 4k/12k 1k/19k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (178k) (138k)
CEOinsider selling .18:1 .25:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s .160:30 160:20
3-box rev Bullish%-  64 62
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay 0
MMF flows Change in $B (1.0B) (9.0B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.49% 0.49%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114.17 113.8

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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