Friday, April 21, 2017

SPRING IS HERE

And so is vacation, so here is this past week's data ahead of time, as I head for the Big Casinos in Reno.
Not much of note happened in the markets or the Indicators, some reversals. Breadth returned to Positive (A/D), as did the McClellan Osc.; and Summation rose.. I.I. show too many Bulls to Bears, and the $ is weakening.
Here are the ##s

Date   4/21/2017 4/14/2017
Indices: DJIA  20584 20453
  NAZ  5910 5805
SPX  2352 2329
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 8.1/4.1 6.6*/3.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.98 2.2
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  66 77
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14.6 15.9
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 50.4 52
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2055/1009 1300/1768
Weekly Net: 1046 -468
     Cumulative: 176074 175028
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 295/61 211/47
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 239/144 156/119
McClellan  Oscillator 8 -16
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 488 456
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 51.9 56.3
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 18.3 17.5
Wed. AAII  -Bull  25.7 29
Bear  37 37.4
US$-WSJ 99.8 100.6
3-box rev Bullish%-  71 71
US equity -ICI Fund Flows (2.7B) WeekLate
MMF flows Change in $B (16.9B) (4.1B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  528B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.2 2.2
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.17 1.21
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114.7 115.2

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, April 17, 2017

SNAP BACK

One day after Easter (and one day before the IRS comes calling for $$), stocks seem to have risen from the dead. After the S&P 500 hitting the 2400 mark on March 1, it fell gradually until today - hopefully the beginning of another cyclical rally.
Although the market is way overdue for a correction, a secular Bear doesn't seem to be in the offing. Since 1950, per Barron's item, no Recession has occurred without an Inverted Yield Curve in the Treasuries - 2-year yield ABOVE the 10-year. And Bear markets usually coincide with the R-word, which has occurred at least once in every decade for nearly a Century or more.
As for sentiment/breadth, notable exceptions include TIPs hitting the 115 mark; the VIX hitting almost 16 last week. The CBOE put/call ratio leapt to 77 from 64, a Bullish sign of fear.
See below:
Date   4/14/2017 4/7/2017
Indices: DJIA  20453 20656
  NAZ  5805 5877
SPX  2329 2355
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 6.6*/3.0 9.3/4.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.2 2.21
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  77 64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 15.9 12.9
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 52 52.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1300/1768 1608/1478
Weekly Net: -468 130
     Cumulative: 175028 175496
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 211/47 225/67
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 156/119 223/135
McClellan  Oscillator -16 14
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 456 405
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 56.3 55.8
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.5 18.3
Wed. AAII  -Bull  29 28.3
Bear  37.4 39.6
US$-WSJ 100.6 101.1
3-box rev Bullish%-  71 74
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (12.7B)
MMF flows Change in $B (4.1B) (6B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  528B FEB.:
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.2 2.4
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.21 1.29
TIP (ETF) Inflation 115.2 114.6
 

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, April 10, 2017

PREMATURE EVACUATION ??

Credit to Kopin Tan and Barron's for the phrase above and the chart showing corporate insiders selling HUGE numbers for the third time this year. However, just as with the low and steady VIX indicator, it does not necessary presage a market Crash, even though valuations are high.

In fact, as shown below, most Sentiment and Breadth Indicators are pretty much the same ol'.

Date   4/7/2017 3/31/17EOQ
Indices: DJIA  20656 20663
  NAZ  5877 5911
SPX  2355 2362
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.3/4.2 8.8/4.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.21 2.15
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  64 57
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.9 12.4
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 52.2 50.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1608/1478 2292/809
Weekly Net: 130 1483
     Cumulative: 175496 175366
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 225/67 227/69
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 223/135 275/123
McClellan  Oscillator 14 36
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 405 325
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 55.8 49.5
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 18.3 18.1
Wed. AAII  -Bull  28.3 30.2
Bear  39.6 37.4
US$-WSJ 101.1 100.6
3-box rev Bullish%-  74 73
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 0
MMF flows Change in $B (6B) 0
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  FEB.: 528B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.4 2.4
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.29 1.25
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114.6 114.6

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, April 3, 2017

ITEMS OF "INTEREST"

Conventional Wisdom would suggest that since the National Debt has doubled over the past decade, that Interest Rate Hikes to service that debt would be disastrous. Although somewhat true, Barron's' Gene Epstein reports that for the past 60 years the average rate has been ..5.8%; it is now only 2%, and the CBO sees in 30 years (?) it will still only be 4.4%.
Also of "Interest" - in this week's Sentiment numbers, Margin Interest has skyrocketed again to $528B, which will also rise to borrowers when rates do!
As the housewife once said: I can't be broke - I still have checks left!

Here are the numbers:

Date   3/31/17EOQ 3/24/2017
Indices: DJIA  20663 20596
  NAZ  5911 5828
SPX  2362 2343
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 8.8/4.1 9.2/4.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.15 2.14
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  57 71
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.4 13
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 50.4 53
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2292/809 1186/1923
Weekly Net: 1483 -737
     Cumulative: 175366 173883
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 227/69 218/115
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 275/123 300/172
McClellan  Oscillator 36 -9
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 325 222
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 49.5 56.7
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 18.1 17.3
Wed. AAII  -Bull  30.2 35.3
Bear  37.4 30.5
US$-WSJ 100.6 99.8
3-box rev Bullish%-  73 75
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (6.9B)
MMF flows Change in $B 0 (23.3B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  528B 513Bnh
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.4 2.4
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.25 1.25
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114.6 114.4

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, March 27, 2017

WEAK WEEK

Another weak of falling from the record close of 21,000 DJIA (30); breadth also fell - Adv/Decl and New hi's. Rising Indicators included CBOE put/call ratio, Inv.Intell. Bulls and MMF flows (into money markets bigtime).
Danger signals are margin interest and the above I.I. Bulls to Bears. Inflation via TIPS seem to be picking up as well.
Here are last week's ##s:

Date   3/24/2017 3/17/2017
Indices: DJIA  20596 20914
  NAZ  5828 5901
SPX  2343 2378
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.2/4.3 10.0/5.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.14 1.82
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  71 66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13 11.3
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 53 53
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1186/1923 2243/868
Weekly Net: -737 1375
     Cumulative: 173883 174620
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 218/115 305/139
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 300/172 372/160
McClellan  Oscillator -9 2
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 222 320
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 56.7 53.4
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.3 17.5
Wed. AAII  -Bull  35.3 31.2
Bear  30.5 38.7
US$-WSJ 99.8 100.3
3-box rev Bullish%-  75 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 9.0B
MMF flows Change in $B (23.3B) (11.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  513Bnh Jan.
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.4 2.5
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.25 1.33
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114.4 113.7

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, March 20, 2017

Wearin' Of The Green

Stocks were basically green (UP), at least for the start of last week, only to sustain a slight hangover into the weekend.  Breadth did a major turnaround, from negative to positive; the McClellan Oscillator jumped from minus 61 to plus two. Still worrisome are the Bulls to Bears ( Inv. Intell.) and record margin interest, which could cost more as rates rise. Contrary to conventional wisdom, stocks to not fall as interest rates rise, at least at first - when they normalize, bond rates become competitive, especially when they overshoot, as they are wont to do.
Here are the numbers:

Date 3/17/2017 3/10/2017
Indices: DJIA  20914 20902
NAZ  5901 5861
SPX  2378 2372
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 10.0/5.5 9.2/4.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.82 2.19
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  66 62
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.3 11.7
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 53 58.5
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2243/868 678/2426
Weekly Net: 1375 -1748
     Cumulative: 174620 173245
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 305/139 162/169
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 372/160 236/166
McClellan  Oscillator 2 -61
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 320 440
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 53.4 57.7
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.5 17.3
Wed. AAII  -Bull  31.2 30
Bear  38.7 46.5
US$-WSJ 100.3 101.4
3-box rev Bullish%-  76 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 4.3B
MMF flows Change in $B (11.7B) 10.1B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  Jan. 513Bnh
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.5 2.6
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.33 1.35
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.7 113

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, March 13, 2017

CON-GRESS or PRO-GRESS?

In these divisive times, not only is the country divided as to opinions, but so is Congress. Winston Churchill once said Democracy is the worst form of government - except for all the others.
Looking up the word "Congress", it comes from the Latin congressus, or congredi, with meanings including coming together and coitus (OMG).

Previous columns have mentioned Hegel's use of Dialectic - where Thesis meets Antithesis to form Synthesis, taking the best ideas from both. Perhaps we should rename Congress: COMITY.

Last week saw the stock market pause on its 8th year ann'y after  the Huge Trump rally. Most Indicators stayed the same direction, only worse. Breadth was bad, as Advances fell behind Declines and New Lows rose on the NYSE and Nas. My fave Indicator failed - the McClellan Oscillator falling below -50 (usually a BUY signal on Monday.

Danger signals remain: Large (record) Margin Interest, I.I. Bulls 3:1 over Bears, and Insider Selling is getting attention. A rare INFLOW to MMFs, most since last Dec. Safe money looks to the 2-year Treas, now 1.37%!
Here are the numbers:
Date 3/10/2017 3/3/2017
Indices: DJIA  20902 21005
NAZ  5861 5870
SPX  2372 2383
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.2/4.2 10.2/4.8
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.19 2.13
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  62 61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.7 10.9
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 58.5 66.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 678/2426 1438/1652
Weekly Net: -1748 -214
     Cumulative: 173245 174993
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 162/169 474/75
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 236/166 490/132
McClellan  Oscillator -61 -22
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 440 768
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 57.7 4:1.63.1
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.3 16.5
Wed. AAII  -Bull  30 37.9
Bear  46.5 35.4
US$-WSJ 101.4 101.3
3-box rev Bullish%-  76              79nh
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 5.8B
MMF flows Change in $B 10.1B (2B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  513Bnh
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.6 2.5
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.35 1.3
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113 114.1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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