While riding it down, I decided to hedge it with JDST, DZZ, even looked at $GVZ, the gold Vix, but have had bad luck using the VIX to hedge the market - VXX futures calls, longterm VIX calls!
Even with Larry McMillan's recent talk at UC Extension solely on the VIX.
So what happened to the stock market? The Traders' Almanac, run by another recent local speaker -Jeffrey Hirsch- used to say " the market rises more on the first trading day of the month than all other days combined! Not a good sign!!!! Another former TSAA speaker - Tom DeMark- as well as a chart from John Mauldin's newsletter- has compared the China bubble market crash to 1929 - a tight correlation, with 14% to go (TDM). Gunslingers can use the ASHR ETF puts to play this.
Last week's Sentiment Indicators showed no signs of today's decline - the AAII Bear/Bull ratio swung heavily to the Bear side - a Bullish FOR the market signal; A longer term signal from corporate Insider Selling to Buying swung from 180:1 to 16:1 (college funding??).
Recent signs, however, have shown a decay in market breadth - advance/declines, new highs/lows, etc. Market declines always precede this weakness, but these weakness don't always result in a market decline (??). As shown below, New Lows on the NYSE reached 600.
Here are the numbers:
|New Hi's/Low's||Nasdaq h/l||172/440||287/403|
|COT:SPX w/w||large/small (net)k||7K/(13K)||9k/(16k)|
|off.&bd b/s.vs.||10% holder b/s||discont.|
|US equity -ICI||Fund Flows||week delay||(3.2B)|
|MMF flows||Change in $B||UNCH||16.2B|
|MargDebt- top (300M)||monthly||505B||JUNE:|
|2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation||0.67%||0.69%|
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
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