UPGRADING THE PC:

The next Sentiment blog you read will (hopefully) be from my new IT setup from this afternoon. With some tech guidance, I shall reformat the blog grid to show more detail and in better format.
Although we had the SELL spike a few weeks ago in Sentiment, things have quieted down (scarily - like when the Fed was accused of manipulating the market many months ago in the media -and by me). MMF funds are moving out, but to bonds, not equities! The CBOE put/call ratio and Volume speculation (Nas v. NY) dropped precipitously; as did the VIX - below 14. The 2-year Treas.yield spiked up to .37% (Inflation?), and the CEO Insider selling doubled to 60:1 over buyers. Too good to be true...

Date>		3/15/2012	3/8/2012
Indices:	DJIA	13232	12922
	NAZ	3055	2988
	SPX	1404	1370
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	8.4/4.9	8.3/3.7
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	1.71	2.24
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	55	68
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	14.5	17.1
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	1777/1395	1667/1475
	Weekly Net:	382	192
	Cumulative:	133797	133415
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	355/39	248/46
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	330/60	177/88
McClellan	Oscillator	-13	0
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	891	912
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	43.6	47.9
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	26.6	26.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	45.6	42.4
	Bear	27.2	29
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(2)/4	(9)/20
CEOinsider	selling	60:1	34:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	824	771
3-box rev	Bullish%-	83	83
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	(1.4B)	1 wk lag
MMF flows	Change in $B	(8.2B)	(7.0B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.37%	0.33%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.39	5.23

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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UPGRADING THE PC:

GETTING SENTIMENTAL:

The quickest way to double your money is
to fold it in half and put it back in your pocket.

Markets are still having trouble getting through resistance: triple zero (the DJIA at 13,000); the S&P 500, 1370 prior top, etc. Technically this works because people who bought there are selling to get even, and technicians are aware of this - so it is self-fulfilling.

 In Wyckoff jargon, the current Trading Range is transfer of shares either from strong hands to weak (for a Distribution) or the opposite (ReAccumulation). Future direction will give the answer.

No new extremes to report, only a Regression from the recent ones - put/calls at 68; Bullish % at 83; CEO selling still high. Here are the numbers:

Date>		3/8/2012	3/1/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12922	12977..
	NAZ	2988	2976
	SPX	1370	1369
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	8.3/3.7	9.3/4.1
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.24	2.27
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	68	63
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	17.1	17.3
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	1667/1475	1401/1759..
	Weekly Net:	192	-358
	Cumulative:	133415	133223
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	248/46	383/27
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	177/88	236/63
McClellan	Oscillator	0	-37
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	912	1116
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	47.9	51.1
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	26.6	25.5
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	42.4	44.5
	Bear	29	26.8
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(9)/20	(5)/24
CEOinsider	selling	34:1	45:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	771	763
3-box rev	Bullish%-	83	85
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(3.1B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(7.0B)	(13.1B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.33%	0.28%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.23	5.19

 

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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GETTING SENTIMENTAL:

SAME-O, SAME-O:

After a boring week ( the DJIA rose 4 points), Sentiment Indicators reflected same: most were Bearish FOR the market - Bullish %, newsletter surveys of Bulls/Bears; Insider selling still high at 45:1.
Bullish Indicators were CBOE put/call ratio, showing hedging - and the McClellan Oscillator nearing the bottom of its range, at -37. Major market indices' trendlines were broken on Friday, and continue down today.
Here are the stats:

Date>		3/1/2012	2/24/2012..
Indices:	DJIA	12977	12982
	NAZ	2976	2963
	SPX	1369	1365
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	9.3/4.1	6.9/2.9
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.27	2.38
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	63	66
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	17.3	17.3
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	1401/1759	1790/1343
	Weekly Net:	-358	447
	Cumulative:	133223	133581
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	383/27	336/7
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	236/63	230/44
McClellan	Oscillator	-37	-6
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	1116	1231
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	51.1	51.1
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	25.5	26.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	44.5	43.7
	Bear	26.8	27.5
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(5)/24	(8)/30
CEOinsider	selling	45:1	91:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	763	706
3-box rev	Bullish%-	85	85
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(.3B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(13.1B)	6.2B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.28%	0.31%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.19	5.08

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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SAME-O, SAME-O:

CEO SELLOFF:

The headline number this week is the (legal) Insider Selling by key officers of corporations: 92:1 is higher than the late October 2011 selloff, where it was only 60:1. Other high numbers include the Bullish %, at 85  ( multi-year high is 88).
Coming off extremes and reverting to the mean are the newsletter surveys (AAII and I.I.), large and small traders' commitments ( large short, small traders long); although Volume remains light, the NASD to NYSE still shows speculation. NYSE new highs to lows are down slightly - 336 to 7 from 362 to 7 (same 7?). Short term bullish is the high CBOE put/call ratio, as traders hedge.
Here are the numbers for last week:

Date>		2/24/2012	2/17/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12982	12949
	NAZ	2963	2951
	SPX	1365	1361
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	6.9/2.9	9.4/3.9
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.38	2.41
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	66	59
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	17.3	17.8
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	1790/1343	2185/972
	Weekly Net:	447	1213
	Cumulative:	133581	133134
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	336/7	362/7
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	230/44	265/44
McClellan	Oscillator	-6	-3
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	1231	1278
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	51.1	54.8
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	26.6	25.8
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	43.7	42.7
	Bear	27.5	26.6
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(8)/30	(7)/32
CEOinsider	selling	91:1	32:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	706	723
3-box rev	Bullish%-	85	84
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	0
MMF flows	Change in $B	6.2B	2.9B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.		290B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.31%	0.30%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.08	5.01….

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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CEO SELLOFF:

EURO OR DRACHMA? A GREEK TRAGEDY:

Greek fishermen have resorted to barter, using products of the sea for currency - it's called "Octupi" the Agora, or "squid" pro quo! (sorry about that).
Although we have a holiday here in the U.S., Papa-Demos (Father of the People) must address the concerns of those revolting peasants. I learned many years ago to "Watch what they DO, not what they SAY!"  How much an inevitable default is factored into our market is TBD.
Meanwhile, several Sentiment/Breadth Indicators remain near recent highs, just as the markets do: the NASDAQ to NYSE Volume ratio, for one - meaning more speculation. As with most all Indicators, the public is right until the extreme, when it isn't. My cumulative Adv./Decl. number is at a record high, although the McClellan Oscillator is @ zero. The Investment Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio widened more, but still off the record. Bullish per cent, at 84, is almost at the record 88 -stocks on a BUY signal. Over the past month the margin debt has increased 10%, the same % as the decrease in NYSE short interest (covering).

At this weekend's S.F. Option meeting I had a request to resume my e-mail alert to interested persons about my blog - if you'd prefer to be delisted from this "spamming", please let me know - I can take it.
Here are the numbers:

Date>		2/17/2012	2/10/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12949	12801
	NAZ	2951	2903
	SPX	1361	1342
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	9.4/3.9	9.3/3.7
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.41	2.51
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	59	60
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	17.8	20.8
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	2185/972	1254/1900
	Weekly Net:	1213	-646
	Cumulative:	133134	131921
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	362/7	374/15
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	265/44	263/35
McClellan	Oscillator	-3	-17
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	1278	1325
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	54.8	52.1
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	25.8	28.7
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	42.7	51.6
	Bear	26.6	20.2
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(7)/32	(13)/41
CEOinsider	selling	32:1	55:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	723	695
3-box rev	Bullish%-	84	83
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 Wk lag	1.9B
MMF flows	Change in $B	2.9B	(.8B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.	290B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.30%	0.28%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg		5.01.........	4.97M

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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EURO OR DRACHMA? A GREEK TRAGEDY:

WHAT, ME WORRY?:

Thanks to Friday's selloff, the week past was basically "unch". But worry clouds still abound. Indicators such as McClellan Oscillator, NYSE cum.A/D, and VIX came off extremes, while others cause concern: CEO Insider (legal) selling was a whopping 55:1; NASD to NYSE Volume was a record 2.51.One Technician on TV last week advised using Bollinger Bands on this ratio. NYSE New Lows for the week were only 15, versus 374 NHs.
Newsletter Bulls climbed higher, while the AAII Bears dropped from 25% to 20%. Bullish % is now 83% - only 5 points off its multi-year high. A reader scooped Barron's to tell me the Baltic Dry Index, which has been posting new lows lately was apparently caused by overbuilding of ships, not the global economy signal, which should be corrected shortly.
Here are the numbers:

Date>		2/10/2012	2/3/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12801	12862
	NAZ	2903	2905
	SPX	1342	1344
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	9.3/3.7	9.6/4.4
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.51	2.18
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	60	60
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	20.8	17.1
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	1254/1900	2496/665
	Weekly Net:	-646	1831
	Cumulative:	131921	132567
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	374/15	526/32
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	263/35	341/39
McClellan	Oscillator	-17	57
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	1325	1236
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	52.1	48.9
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	28.7	29.8
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	51.6	43.8
	Bear	20.2	25.1
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(13)/41	(12)/42
CEOinsider	selling	55:1	26:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	695	651
3-box rev	Bullish%-	83	82
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(1.8B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(.8B)	(21B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.28%	0.24%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	4.97M	4.89

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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WHAT, ME WORRY?:

TOIL AND TRUBBLE:

Recent Sentiment (and breadth) data has shown the most remarkable extremes that I can ever remember, in the 7 years or more of writing this blog! Let me count the ways:
The DJIA and S&P 500 hit all time record point gains for a January;  the NASDAQ reached an 11-year high last week. The 2011 high for the SPX was 1365 - it closed Friday at 1344.

My cumulative Advance/Decline indicator continues to make new all time highs; NAZ Volume to NYSE indicates speculation; the VIX is at a relative extreme low of 17.
For only the second time in many months equity flows have increased into mutual funds, and MMF outflows were a huge $21B. Talking heads are glowing with a global economic recovery, but China is slowing, as is Europe, and the Baltic Dry Index hit a multi-year low last week at 651 -cut in half from its high.
Usually reliable Bullish % and McClellan Oscillator are also at high levels - large commodity traders are shorting, while small traders are long the SPX futures. Insider (CEO) Selling is fairly but consistently high in recent weeks. Finally, AAII Bears are coming of near record "teen" lows.
Here are the numbers:

Date>		2/3/2012	1/27/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12862	12660
	NAZ	2905	2816
	SPX	1344	1316
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	4.4/9.6	..4.0/9.1
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.18	2.28
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	60	62
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	17.1	18.5
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	2496/665	2251/905
	Weekly Net:	1831	1346
	Cumulative:	132567	130736
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	526/32	367/25
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	341/39	200/39
McClellan	Oscillator	57	47
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	1236	1050
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	48.9	50
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	29.8	28.7
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	43.8	48.4
	Bear	25.1	18.9
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(12)/42	(2)/16
CEOinsider	selling	26:1	28:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	651	753
3-box rev	Bullish%-	82	80
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	.8B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(21B)	(15B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.		267B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.		618/245/184
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.24%	0.22%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	4.89	4.82

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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TOIL AND TRUBBLE: