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Monday, December 15, 2014

A Christmas story

Despite the pop up of the 2-year Treasury to a new recent high yield of 0.64%, then back down, I decided to add the TIP ETF (Treasury Inflation fund), which is actually at its recent lows of 112 -110 being the low in 2013 after the December 2012 multiyear high of 123. No Inflation worries now, although Deflation can be even scarier!.  Other notable Indicators were the Gold Commercial shorters rising up again, and Money Market additions went to recent highs - $25B. The  VIX jumped to 21 last week and the CBOE put to call ratio also jumped up to 72 - Bullish FOR the markets.

Here are the numbers:

Date> 12/12/2014 12/5/2014
Indices: DJIA  17280 17958
  NAZ  4653 4780
SPX  2002 2075
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.4/4.3 8.9/4.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.19 2.23
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  72 61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 21.1 11.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 653/2614 1478/1786
Weekly Net: -1961 -308
     Cumulative: 162255 164216
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 387/522 455/326
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 286/373 286/302
McClellan  Oscillator -63 -7
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 365 563
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 51.5 53.4
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 14.8 13.9
AAII  -Bull :wed. 45 42.7
Bear  22.3 25.9
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 5k/16k 8k/13k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (117k) -89
CEOinsider selling 32:1 41:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 165:25 165:45
3-box rev Bullish%-  72 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (3B)
MMF flows Change in $B 18.5B 25.6B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.54% 0.64%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 112 112

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, December 8, 2014

Following The Script

Hopefully, now that the Fed is through manipulating the market with extended Debt, it will get back to its normal - which is a usual hiatus in mid-December (selling losers for taxes, winners for window dressing), before a Santa Claus rally.
Extremes in Sentiment last week include:
a jump in the Treas. interest rates (2-year); a rare decline in Advance/Decline - third in two months (and a concomitant negative in the McClellan Oscillator). Also, a large jump in MMF assets.

Here are the numbers:
Date> 12/5/2014 11/28/2014
Indices: DJIA  17958 17828
NAZ  4780 4791
SPX  2075 2067
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 8.9/4.0 5.5/2.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.23 1.9
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  61 61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.8 13.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1478/1786 1768/1475
Weekly Net: -308 293
     Cumulative: 164216 164524
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 455/326 477/194
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 286/302 293/151
McClellan  Oscillator -7 13
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 563 592
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 53.4 56.5
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 13.9 13.8
AAII  -Bull :wed. 42.7 52.5
Bear  25.9 20.8
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 8k/13k N/A
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 -89 N/A
CEOinsider selling 41:1 40:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 165:45 215:45
3-box rev Bullish%-  76 74
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (2.0B)
MMF flows Change in $B 25.6B 8.4B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  454B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1168/424/294
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.64% 0.47%



With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, December 1, 2014

ThanksTaking

The title of my Examiner.com article this week:   http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard -  was supposed to reflect the increasing Greed of stores to hold Holiday sales for most of the week, not just on Black Friday. My acronym - STUD, or Shop Till U Drop didn't intend to mean things like the Chicago shopping mall where a shopper shot his wife and killed himself at the mall!

 Last week set new highs for all indices yet again, despite the Friday selloff in stocks. Volume was down with the Holiday, but not in quality - the 2 handle in the ratio of NASDAQ to NYSE (speculative if high) broke to below 2 last week.Breadth was still positive - Advance/Declines and New highs/lows. Insider trading was not available (N/A) due to Thx, but gold rallied $50 today (Monday).

ETF monthly figures were out for Oct. with Stocks and Bond funds at new highs. Int'l stocks and Margin Interest fell. Here are the numbers:

Date> ######## 11/21/2014
Indices: DJIA  17828 17810
  NAZ  4791 4712
SPX  2067 2063
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 5.5/2.9 8.4/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.9 2.15
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  61 53
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.3 12.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1768/1475 1949/1287
Weekly Net: 293 662
     Cumulative: 164524 164231
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 477/194 401/123
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 293/151 251/188
McClellan  Oscillator 13 23
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 592 490
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 56.5 56.4
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 13.8 14.9
AAII  -Bull :wed. 52.5 49.1
Bear  20.8 23.8
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k N/A 6k/10k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 N/A (71k)
CEOinsider selling 40:1 24:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 215:45 160:45
3-box rev Bullish%-  74 74
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (3.6B)
MMF flows Change in $B 8.4B 9.8B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  454B OCT
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1168/424/294 OCT
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.47% 0.51%
InsiderTotal: InsBuy:Fin.(50%)
10%All Sales

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, November 24, 2014

HO HUM

The only surprise in the Sentiment Indicators last week was that there were no surprises. All indicators regressed to the norms from a few extremes - notably (from Barron's) the AAII Bulls coming of the complacent highs from the previous week - highest in 4 years- back below 50%. Disappointing to me were the consistent number (UNCH) of Gold shorts not covering, in what I opined was the start of a good rally. Gold buyers currently include (along with China which has been steadily buying) Russia - getting away from the $; ISIS - getting away from fiat currencies; and the Swiss- getting ready for the Nov.30 vote to hold 20% of Fed money in gold, never to sell any!

Here are the numbers:

Date> 11/21/2014 11/14/2014
Indices: DJIA  17810 17634
  NAZ  4712 4688
SPX  2063 2039
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 8.4/3.9 8.8/3.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.15 2.51
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  53 60
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.9 13.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1949/1287 1534/1726
Weekly Net: 662 -192
     Cumulative: 164231 163569
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 401/123 458/116
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 251/188 313/184
McClellan  Oscillator 23 15
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 490 441
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 56.4 55.5
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 14.9 14.8
AAII  -Bull :wed. 49.1 57.9
Bear  23.8 19.3
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 6k/10k 6K/6K
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (71k) (72K)
CEOinsider selling 24:1 34:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 160:45 210:40
3-box rev Bullish%-  74 69
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay unch
MMF flows Change in $B 9.8B 9.1B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  SEPT:
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B SEPT:
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.51% 0.52%
InsiderTotal: InsBuy:Fin.(50%)
10%All Sales

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, November 17, 2014

REST STOP

After a huge post-correction rally, it might be a time to stop and reflect on the immediate future of stocks. The McClellan Oscillator is coming off a very high level, and the NYA Composite it is based on has  yet to hit a new high, unlike the other indices which went to new highs - albeit on negative A/D breadth. The Oscillator itself went negative after posting +50 highs the last three weeks.
Insider selling increased a bit, as did shorting of gold - but the gold miners' indices seemed to jump up with huge Volume the past few days - Oversold? GDX, NUGT.

Here are the numbers:

Date> 11/14/2014 11/7/2014
Indices: DJIA  17634 17573
  NAZ  4688 4632
SPX  2039 2031
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 8.8/3.5 9.7/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.51 2.49
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  60 63
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.3 13.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1534/1726 1798/1451
Weekly Net: -192 347
     Cumulative: 163569 163761
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 458/116 540/172
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 313/184 337/192
McClellan  Oscillator 15 53
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 441 275
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 55.5 54.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 14.8 15.1
AAII  -Bull :wed. 57.9 52.7
Bear  19.3 15.1
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 6K/6K 5k/3k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (72K) (55k)
CEOinsider selling 34:1 24:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 210:40 160:45
3-box rev Bullish%-  69 65
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (1.7B)
MMF flows Change in $B 9.1B 5.9B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  SEPT: 464B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B SEPT: 1120/432/276
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.52% 0.50%


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, November 10, 2014

HIGHS AND LOWS

HIGHS AND LOWS

As markets hit new Highs last week, I thought it a good idea to post the multi-year Hi's and Lo's for my Indicators - see previous blog for the individual results:

Date> DECADE HI LOW
Indices: DJIA  17573 6626
  NAZ  4632 1114
SPX  2031 683
WklyVolume (Bshs).  
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 3.39 1.59
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  104.11/08 42
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 90 8.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE..    
Weekly Net:    
     Cumulative: 164731 71464
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 950 18
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l    
McClellan  Oscillator Jan.09:108 May.'12:(110)
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 1568-6/03 (1514).
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 62.9-12/04 22.2-10/08
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 54.4-10/08 13.3-9/14
AAII  -Bull :wed. (12/10)63.3  
Bear  70.3(3/09) 16.4
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k    
COT:gold  comm.hedg (166k)nh
CEOinsider selling 235:1 .2.1
3-box rev Bullish%-  88 2
US equity -ICI Fund Flows    
MMF flows Change in $B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  466B  
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond 1141/454/281
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.58%nh

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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V FOR VICTORY

The V-Spike is a common Technical Analysis signal, especially when occurring with massive Volume, as the recent (finally) expected October decline of nearly 10%  - a correction area. Since then it has been onward and upward, and I expect more of the same. More commentary (!) at:

Most remarkable of the Sentiment Indicators last week were: New Highs in the DJIA, SPX, Utils and Transports - and the NAS is nearing its record of the 2000 Bubble of 5049. There seems to be a conflict of the Bull/Bear views - the CBOE is high (fear) in the 60s, while complacency reigns in the Surveys - AAII and Inv. Intell., which come out mid-week.

Most remarkable was the Sector line of Insider Selling AND Buying last week - both huge, but the ratio was down to 24 to 1 Sellers (see below). The monthly stats of ETF flows finally came out for Sept. - down in all three categories.
Here are the numbers:

Date> 11/7/2014 10/31/2014
Indices: DJIA  17573 17390
  NAZ  4632 4630
SPX  2031 2018
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 9.7/3.9 10.0/4.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.49 2.38
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  63 62
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.1 14
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1798/1451 2440/813
Weekly Net: 347 1627
     Cumulative: 163761 163414
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 540/172 441/156
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 337/192 332/182
McClellan  Oscillator 53 84
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 275 -5
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 54.6 47
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 15.1 16.3
AAII  -Bull :wed. 52.7 49.4
Bear  15.1 21.1
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 5k/3k (4k)/(6k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (55k) (99k)
CEOinsider selling 24:1 29:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 160:45 160:25
3-box rev Bullish%-  65 60
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay 1.1B
MMF flows Change in $B 5.9B 6.1B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  464B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1120/432/276
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.50% 0.49%




With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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