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Monday, April 21, 2014

Hallelujah! It Has Risen

Sector totals of Insider Selling dropped precipitously to only 11 to 1 Sellers (from 68:1 the week prior); while the newly found records of "smart" Insiders - Board members, Officers dropped to 150 sales, while 10% share holders  reversed to more Buyers than Sellers! Per my Sentiment blog: http://mktsentiment.blogspot.com, MMFs (Money Markets) are shedding dollars again and Equity funds are gradually picking up, per ICI. The AAII Bears inverted over the Bulls again - a Bullish contrarian sign

- although the Investors Intell. - Wire house advisory letters- were still complacent. In my studies of the two for my CMT designation on Sentiment, I found the AAII more accurate- from a Contrary point of view.  

Here are the numbers:

Date> 4/18/2014 4/11/2014
Indices: DJIA  16408 16026
  NAZ  4062 3999
SPX  1864 1815
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 8.0/3.0 11.3/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish **2.66 2.9
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  57 61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.4 17
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2394/812 975/2241
Weekly Net: 1582 -1266
     Cumulative: 158696 157114
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 190/86 134/78
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 94/185 79/157
McClellan  Oscillator 14 -48
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 696 717
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 50.5 54.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 20.6 18.6
AAII  -Bull :wed. 27.2 28.5
Bear  34.3 34.1
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 8k/18k 12k/20k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (88k) (102k)
CEOinsider selling 11:1 68:1?
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 150:6/15* 180:15
3-box rev Bullish%-  66 66
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay 2.1B
MMF flows Change in $B (35.0B) (17.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  FEB. 466B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B FEB. 1035/397/266
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.40% 0.36%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, April 14, 2014

RED MOON AT NIGHT

To paraphrase the wayfarers' saying:  Red Sky At  Night- Sailors' Delight, weird things happen in April and October. These are moon-based events - eclipses every 6 months, when we get earthquakes, market crashes. With the human body a high % liquid, the moon has a gravity pull - hence "lunatic".
Maybe this will precipitate a much-needed correction in the stock market, especially Nas and tech stocks.
Not much new in the Sentiment area, although Insider Selling by Industry group (although several n/as in there) actually doubled from the week before - 34 to 68 to 1. My favorite predictor, the McClellan Oscillator did fall to -48, just two points away from my usual BUY signal of minus 50 - hence the rally today!
Here are the numbers:

Date> 4/11/2014 4/4/2014
Indices: DJIA  16026 16412
  NAZ  3999 4127
SPX  1815 1865
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 11.3/3.9 10.9/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.9 3.03
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  61 56
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17 13.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 975/2241 2130/1063
Weekly Net: -1266 1067
     Cumulative: 157114 158380
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 134/78 389/30
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 79/157 258/103
McClellan  Oscillator -48 -10
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 717 837
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 54.6 50.5
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 18.6 18.6
AAII  -Bull :wed. 28.5 35.4
Bear  34.1 26.8
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 12k/20k 9k/21k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (102k) (114k)
CEOinsider selling 68:1? 34:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 180:15 175:30
3-box rev Bullish%-  66 74
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay .9B
MMF flows Change in $B (17.7B) (13.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  466B FEB.
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1035/397/266 FEB.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.36% 0.42%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, April 7, 2014

Weak Week

There is a basic Technical rule that historically !!! the last day and the first four days of the month are positive for the market, as people get paid, especially around Income tax time. This was true...until Friday. Weekly Sentiment Indicators looked fairly benign for the week - surveys take place Tues. and Wed.- although the relative extremes were still high - Insider Selling (Board,Officers) since December; margin interest a new record, although low rates and the Fed Put option help this ongoing fact.

High on the radar is the Presidential four-year cycle, with 2014 being the mid-election year, where markets have dipped a minimum of 9% without fail for several decades. Barron's had an article that especially May and (even worse) June proved the "Sell in May" adage. The past two days seem to verify players coming in early, like HFTs!

Although weekly breadth (hurt by Friday) remained strong, low VIX and high Nas Volume warned.

Here are the numbers (more at: http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard)


Date> 4/4/2014 3/28/2014
Indices: DJIA  16412 16323
  NAZ  4127 4155
SPX  1865 1857
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 10.9/3.6 11.4/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 3.03 3.17
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  56 61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.9 14.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2130/1063 1485/1713
Weekly Net: 1067 -228
     Cumulative: 158380 157313
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 389/30 213/64
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 258/103 161/110
McClellan  Oscillator -10 -10
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 837 768
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 50.5 54.7
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 18.6 17.5
AAII  -Bull :wed. 35.4 31.2
Bear  26.8 28.6
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 9k/21k 7k/24k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (114k) (127k)
CEOinsider selling 34:1 25:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 175:30 200:40
3-box rev Bullish%-  74 72
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (.2B)
MMF flows Change in $B (13.2B) (3.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  FEB. 466B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B FEB. 1035/397/266
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.42% 0.45%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, March 31, 2014

Flash Boys

In investing, the best Outcome is Income!

As a contrarian I should not have been surprised that today's market acted opposite from what I thought after 60 Minutes excellent coverage of Michael Lewis's "Flash Buys" interview (and book) on the "rigging" of the stock market by HFTs (High Frequency Traders)! Although many people are addressing this problem, it doesn't really affect long term investors very much, or even swing/position traders; but hopefully, as with the Bitcoin time lag, regulators can fix this inequity.

  More on equity returns at my Examiner.com column:  http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Sentiment and Breadth extremes last week included the monthly figures of ETF flows, all increasing to recent record highs: domestic equity, Int'l, and Bonds, although MMF (money market) outflows lessened. Margin debt again hit new highs, but as reported elsewhere, this is a common occurrence (until it doesn't). As shown below, most other indicators are within range:

Date> 3/28/2014 3/21/2014
Indices: DJIA  16323 16302
  NAZ  4155 4276
SPX  1857 1866
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 11.4/3.6 10.5/4.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 3.17 2.39
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  61 57
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14.4 15
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1485/1713 1940/1258
Weekly Net: -228 682
     Cumulative: 157313 157541
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 213/64 337/65
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 161/110 350/59
McClellan  Oscillator -10 -12
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 768 897
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 54.7 52
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 17.5 17.4
AAII  -Bull :wed. 31.2 36.8
Bear  28.6 26.1
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 7k/24k 9k/(31k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (127k) (146k)nh
CEOinsider selling 25:1 25:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 200:40 140:50
3-box rev Bullish%-  72 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (3.8B)
MMF flows Change in $B (3.2B) (31B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  466B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1035/397/266
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.45% 0.45%
InsiderTotal: 50exer.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, March 24, 2014

Sorry Toto- Kansas Gone

Stanford bumps Kansas from the March Madness in an upset game. Picking teams is like picking stocks - one never knows.
Sentiment extremes last week include records (at least recent ones) in the 2-year Treasury yield of 0.43%; commercials are also selling gold bigtime - whether it is hedging or bailing, one never knows.

 The S&P 500 (SPX) futures large traders are long, but small traders remain short. Most other Sentiment Indicators reverted to the mean last week - Bull/Bear surveys, VIX, CBOE put/call ratio, et.al. See below:

Date> 3/21/2014 3/14/2014
Indices: DJIA  16302 16065
  NAZ  4276 4245
SPX  1866 1841
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 10.5/4.4 11.2/3.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.39 3.39nh
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  57 67
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 15 17.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1940/1258 1196/2006
Weekly Net: 682 -810
     Cumulative: 157541 156859
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 337/65 240/90
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 350/59 293/57
McClellan  Oscillator -12 -29
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 897 938
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 52 55.1
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 17.4 17.4
AAII  -Bull :wed. 36.8 41.3
Bear  26.1 26.8
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 9k/(31k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (146k)nh (125k)nh
CEOinsider selling 25:1 76:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 140:50 150:60
3-box rev Bullish%-  76 75
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay 1.9B
MMF flows Change in $B (31B) (2B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.43% 0.35%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, March 17, 2014

What's The Big IDE?

The Ides of March are certainly providing a lot of market Volatility, partially due to all the revolting people around the globe; the NASD to NYSE Volume ratio ( speculation) made an all time high; but the CBOE put/call ratio yanked up 15 % points, a contrarily Bullish sign - more puts traded. The VIX leapt up from 14 to 17, which is usually a coincident, not predictive number.

For more, please click on:  http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard
To get it automatically each week, click on SUBSCRIBE
 
Here are the numbers:

Date> 3/14/2014 3/7/2014
Indices: DJIA  16065 16452
  NAZ  4245 4336nh
SPX  1841 1878nh
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 11.2/3.3 11.0/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 3.39nh 3.06
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  67 52
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17.8 14.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1196/2006 1864/1344
Weekly Net: -810 520
     Cumulative: 156859 157669
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 240/90 512/35
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 293/57 500/46
McClellan  Oscillator -29 10
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 938 1050
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 55.1 54.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 17.4 15.1
AAII  -Bull :wed. 41.3 40.5
Bear  26.8 26.6
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 3k/(31k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (125k)nh (121k)
CEOinsider selling 76:1 40:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 150:60 160:50
3-box rev Bullish%-  75 75
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay 1.9B
MMF flows Change in $B (2B) (4B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.35% 0.37%
InsiderTotal: 1265k/32k

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, March 10, 2014

HOLDING THE BREADTH:

Despite Monday's selloff the overall markets' breadth, or advances versus declines is still very strong. Last week saw new highs in the cumulative A/D summation, the McClellan Summation (similar) also broke 1000; it also hit 1560 in June of 2003 after a strong runup, but only to advance for a few more years after the hiccup. The McClellan Oscillator, the weekly number, however, has been declining the past couple weeks to +10.

Markets did hit new highs last week - Nasdaq and S&P 500, and NAS Volume increased over NY (speculative) to a 3-handle. New highs to lows ran above 10 to 1 on both the above indexes.
Other notable extremes: the Investors Intelligence Bears dropped to 15; the gold commercials continue to increase their shorting. Insider selling continues to be huge.
Here are the numbers:

Date> 3/7/2014 2/28/2014
Indices: DJIA  16452 16321
  NAZ  4336nh 4308nh
SPX  1878nh 1859nh
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 11.0/3.6 10.9/3.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 3.06 2.95
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  52 58
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14.1 14
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1864/1344 1825/1192
Weekly Net: 520 633
     Cumulative: 157669 157149nh
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 512/35 457/63
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 500/46 446/50
McClellan  Oscillator 10 42
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 1050 924
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 54.6 53.5
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 15.1 17.2
AAII  -Bull :wed. 40.5 39.7
Bear  26.6 21.1
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 3k/(31k) 6k/(29k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (121k) (117k)*
CEOinsider selling 40:1 111:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 160:50 200:50
3-box rev Bullish%-  75 72
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay 3.1B
MMF flows Change in $B (4B) 20B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  451Bnh
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 987/377/248
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.37% 0.32%
InsiderTotal: 1265k/32k

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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