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Monday, November 17, 2014

REST STOP

After a huge post-correction rally, it might be a time to stop and reflect on the immediate future of stocks. The McClellan Oscillator is coming off a very high level, and the NYA Composite it is based on has  yet to hit a new high, unlike the other indices which went to new highs - albeit on negative A/D breadth. The Oscillator itself went negative after posting +50 highs the last three weeks.
Insider selling increased a bit, as did shorting of gold - but the gold miners' indices seemed to jump up with huge Volume the past few days - Oversold? GDX, NUGT.

Here are the numbers:

Date> 11/14/2014 11/7/2014
Indices: DJIA  17634 17573
  NAZ  4688 4632
SPX  2039 2031
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 8.8/3.5 9.7/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.51 2.49
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  60 63
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.3 13.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1534/1726 1798/1451
Weekly Net: -192 347
     Cumulative: 163569 163761
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 458/116 540/172
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 313/184 337/192
McClellan  Oscillator 15 53
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 441 275
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 55.5 54.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 14.8 15.1
AAII  -Bull :wed. 57.9 52.7
Bear  19.3 15.1
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 6K/6K 5k/3k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (72K) (55k)
CEOinsider selling 34:1 24:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 210:40 160:45
3-box rev Bullish%-  69 65
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (1.7B)
MMF flows Change in $B 9.1B 5.9B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  SEPT: 464B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B SEPT: 1120/432/276
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.52% 0.50%


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, November 10, 2014

HIGHS AND LOWS

HIGHS AND LOWS

As markets hit new Highs last week, I thought it a good idea to post the multi-year Hi's and Lo's for my Indicators - see previous blog for the individual results:

Date> DECADE HI LOW
Indices: DJIA  17573 6626
  NAZ  4632 1114
SPX  2031 683
WklyVolume (Bshs).  
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 3.39 1.59
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  104.11/08 42
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 90 8.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE..    
Weekly Net:    
     Cumulative: 164731 71464
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 950 18
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l    
McClellan  Oscillator Jan.09:108 May.'12:(110)
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 1568-6/03 (1514).
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 62.9-12/04 22.2-10/08
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 54.4-10/08 13.3-9/14
AAII  -Bull :wed. (12/10)63.3  
Bear  70.3(3/09) 16.4
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k    
COT:gold  comm.hedg (166k)nh
CEOinsider selling 235:1 .2.1
3-box rev Bullish%-  88 2
US equity -ICI Fund Flows    
MMF flows Change in $B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  466B  
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond 1141/454/281
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.58%nh

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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V FOR VICTORY

The V-Spike is a common Technical Analysis signal, especially when occurring with massive Volume, as the recent (finally) expected October decline of nearly 10%  - a correction area. Since then it has been onward and upward, and I expect more of the same. More commentary (!) at:

Most remarkable of the Sentiment Indicators last week were: New Highs in the DJIA, SPX, Utils and Transports - and the NAS is nearing its record of the 2000 Bubble of 5049. There seems to be a conflict of the Bull/Bear views - the CBOE is high (fear) in the 60s, while complacency reigns in the Surveys - AAII and Inv. Intell., which come out mid-week.

Most remarkable was the Sector line of Insider Selling AND Buying last week - both huge, but the ratio was down to 24 to 1 Sellers (see below). The monthly stats of ETF flows finally came out for Sept. - down in all three categories.
Here are the numbers:

Date> 11/7/2014 10/31/2014
Indices: DJIA  17573 17390
  NAZ  4632 4630
SPX  2031 2018
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 9.7/3.9 10.0/4.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.49 2.38
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  63 62
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.1 14
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1798/1451 2440/813
Weekly Net: 347 1627
     Cumulative: 163761 163414
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 540/172 441/156
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 337/192 332/182
McClellan  Oscillator 53 84
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 275 -5
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 54.6 47
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 15.1 16.3
AAII  -Bull :wed. 52.7 49.4
Bear  15.1 21.1
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 5k/3k (4k)/(6k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (55k) (99k)
CEOinsider selling 24:1 29:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 160:45 160:25
3-box rev Bullish%-  65 60
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay 1.1B
MMF flows Change in $B 5.9B 6.1B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  464B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1120/432/276
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.50% 0.49%




With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, November 3, 2014

BUY HIGH, SELL HIGHER?

The motto of the IBD ( Investors' Daily) is worth considering these days. Several Sentiment Indicators are relatively high (complacent) but with what is traditionally the best three months of the year, and the U.S. stock market the best game in town, how much more rally can we see?
The U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is the highest it has been since...2007!

Last week was the best one in two years as many indices hit all time highs, including the Utilities - the Nasdaq is getting closer. Breadth is very positive, with the McClellan Oscillator hitting above my +50 (sell) number, but it is also the first trading day of the month. Traders' Almanac states the first day in the past outperformed all other days of the month combined.

Commercial traders of Gold are still shorting it bigtime, although I hope we saw a Selling Climax of Volume recently. Gartner sees it going lower.

Here are the numbers from last week - the monthly numbers at the bottom - Margin Interest and ETF flows have been reported as well.

Date> 10/31/2014 10/24/2014
Indices: DJIA  17390 16805
  NAZ  4630 4483
SPX  2018 1964
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 10.0/4.2 9.3/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.38 2.38
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  62 63
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14 16.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2440/813 2135/572
Weekly Net: 1627 1563
     Cumulative: 163414 161787
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 441/156 214/101
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 332/182 137/152
McClellan  Oscillator 84 68
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -5 -353
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 47 35.3
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 16.3 18.2
AAII  -Bull :wed. 49.4 49.7
Bear  21.1 22.5
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k (4k)/(6k) (1k)/(7k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (99k) (105k)
CEOinsider selling 29:1 12:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 160:25 210:25
3-box rev Bullish%-  60 48
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay 4.7B
MMF flows Change in $B 6.1B 12.9B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  464B SEPT.
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1120/432/276
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.49% 0.39%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, October 27, 2014

BOO WHO

Not the scariest October in record, in fact one of the most expected corrections in recent years - sans Fed activity. Usually the Hallowe'en Effect creates a buying opportunity for stocks, but not last year, nor 2010.

Sentiment extremes quieted down last week, with the breadth (advance/decline) continuing UP and the Insider selling DOWN. In fact the 10% stockholders are Buying recently. The McClellan Oscillator went to a +68 - way overbought, hence the small selloff at today's open. MMF flows are making as violent swings as the markets.

Here are the numbers:

Date> 10/24/2014 10/17/2014
Indices: DJIA  16805 16380
NAZ  4483 4258
SPX  1964 1886
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 9.3/3.9 12.7/5.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.38 2.44
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  63 75
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 16.1 22
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2135/572 2000/1250
Weekly Net: 1563 750
     Cumulative: 161787 160224
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 214/101 89/813
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 137/152 81/650
McClellan  Oscillator 68 10
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -353 -625
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 35.3 37.8
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 18.2 17.3
AAII  -Bull :wed. 49.7 42.7
Bear  22.5 33.7
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k (1k)/(7k) 0k/20k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (105k) (75k)
CEOinsider selling 12:1 13:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 210:25 160:20BUY
3-box rev Bullish%-  48 41
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (5.0B)
MMF flows Change in $B 12.9B (22B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.39% 0.38%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, October 20, 2014

ZUGZWANG

In Chess jargon the German word Zugzwang means "Forced Move", wherein the opponent has to make only one choice, and it is usually not a good one! As the investing world moves forward, fewer and fewer choices are available to prudent investors, and economists and Fundamental Analysts seem to be in unanimous agreement (usually a bad contrary sign) that the U.S. stock market will rise in the next three months to 2 years or more.

The Technical picture, based here on Sentiment Indicators is not so one-sided, although there are some eye-popping moves from last week - more explanation at:    http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Exchange Volume was at a 2014 high (Selling Climax?); the CBOE put/call ratio as well. The Commitment of Traders "smart money" - large traders, was dead even (buy/short), while the small ones were net long 20k.Finally, Insider Trading dropped to 13:1 sellers, but the surprise number was the 10% stock holders almost unanimously buying more stock!

Here are the numbers:


Date> 10/17/2014 10/10/2014
Indices: DJIA  16380 16544
NAZ  4258 4276
SPX  1886 1906
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 12.7/5.2 11.3/4.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.44 2.69
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  75 72
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 22 21.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2000/1250 801/2453
Weekly Net: -750 -1652
     Cumulative: 158724 160251
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 89/813 103/565
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 81/650 80/549
McClellan  Oscillator 10 -61
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -625 -475
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 37.8 45.5
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 17.3 14.1
AAII  -Bull :wed. 42.7 39.9
Bear  33.7 31
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 0k/20k (7k)/24k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (75k) (63k)
CEOinsider selling 13:1 40:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 160:20BUY 175:40
3-box rev Bullish%-  41 61
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (.5B)
MMF flows Change in $B (22B) 17.0B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.38% 0.43%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, October 13, 2014

WILD WEEK

I knew if I went on vacation to San Diego for a week the market would go crazy - especially during this critical Sept.-Oct. span. Luckily, even with a few Sentiment and breadth extremes, my current investment strategies - DITM and especially Leaps are not directly affected. I shall be giving a talk on these this Saturday at the SF Option Group monthly meetup at Ft. Mason - 9 a.m. BLDG C (Rm.235) for local readers.

The overdue correction brought a few extreme readings in the last two posts - the previous week's unavailable (n/a) are updated today:
NYSE Volume increased as expected; also the CBOE put/call ratio and VIX did as well. Breadth (advance/declines) were negative for the fourth week - mutual fund outflows reached 6 straight weeks. The McClellan Oscillator was below -50, which again failed to see a buy signal today, and the Summation is at a recent low - hopefully support. Incidentally, Tom McClellan will be presenting at the TSAA annual seminar this month - please see my Examiner.com column if interested in attending:   http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard.

Finally, the 2-year Treasury yield dropped dramatically- all numbers are below:

Date> 10/10/2014 10/2/14*
Indices: DJIA  16544 17010
  NAZ  4276 4481
SPX  1906 1968
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 11.3/4.2 10.0/4.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.69 2.44
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  72 65
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 21.2 14.6
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 801/2453 1235/2012
Weekly Net: -1652 -777
     Cumulative: 160251 161126
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 103/565 92/445
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 80/549 105/410
McClellan  Oscillator -61 -53
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -475 -272
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 45.5 47.5
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 14.1 15.1
AAII  -Bull :wed. 39.9 35.4
Bear  31 30.9
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k (7k)/24k n/a
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (63k)
CEOinsider selling 40:1 52:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 175:40 175:40
3-box rev Bullish%-  61 65
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (4.1B)
MMF flows Change in $B 17.0B 22.8B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  463B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1141/454/281
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.43% 0.57%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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