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Monday, July 21, 2014

ZERO TOLERANCE


The DJIA (30) so far has held above the triple zero breakthrough, although the broader market - SPX (500) has not yet pierced the zero mark of 2000. Various indicators - seasonal, cyclical, technical, and even fundamental- are suggesting a breather after 5 1/2 years of Bull. Although the Investors Intelligence Bulls have dropped below the 60% mark (to 56%), the Bears are now at 15.1%. For more reasons, please go to:   http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard


Wild rides in the markets, even gold - with 30 and 20 point swings; commercial insider sellers are still huge despite the global turbulence.  

Here are last week's numbers:

Date> 7/18/2014 7/11/2014
Indices: DJIA  17100 16943
NAZ  4432 4415
SPX  1978 1967
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 9.8/3.5 8.7/3.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.8 2.9
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  57 60
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.1 12.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1679/1538 1173/2070
Weekly Net: 141 -897
     Cumulative: 163975 163834
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 386/62 309/60
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 150/154 137/103
McClellan  Oscillator -25 -38
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 711 894
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 56.6 60.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 15.1 15.2
AAII  -Bull :wed. 32.4 37.6
Bear  28.5 28.7
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k .1.11 .6/1
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (157k) (166k)nh
CEOinsider selling 49:1 104:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 225:5 220:20
3-box rev Bullish%-  83 84
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (1.8B)
MMF flows Change in $B (10.2B) 5.4B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.48% 0.45%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Tuesday, July 15, 2014

A Day Late...

and $1,000.00 short. Due to my desktop computer blowing up on me ( my first traumatic time) and buying a new one with countless hours of mental anguish, this comes on Tuesday this week.

Post-holiday ennui set in with sellers taking profits from the record highs, yet sentiment grew more complacent. Put/calls went from 52 to 60, although the VIX did rise. Declines vastly outnumbered the advances, with New Highs still positive.Inv. Intell Bears dropped to the 15 handle, not seen in awhile. Commercial gold traders foresaw something last week with record selling - 166K, a new high, and gold dropped $30 on Monday, 10 more today. Must have been the Barron's bullish interview!

Here are the numbers:


Date> 7/11/2014 7/3/14*hol
Indices: DJIA  16943 17068
  NAZ  4415 4485
SPX  1967 1985
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 8.7/3.0 6.3/2.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.9 2.42
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  60 52
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.1 10.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1173/2070 1944/1276
Weekly Net: -897 668
     Cumulative: 163834 164731
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 309/60 599/30
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 137/103 307/51
McClellan  Oscillator -38 5
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 894 1053
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 60.6 57.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 15.2 16.1
AAII  -Bull :wed. 37.6 38.5
Bear  28.7 22.4
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k .6/1 n/a
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (166k)nh n/a
CEOinsider selling 104:1 20:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 220:20 175:25
3-box rev Bullish%-  84 84
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (1.1B)
MMF flows Change in $B 5.4B 13.1B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.45% 0.51%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, July 7, 2014

HOLDING YOUR BREADTH

Market breadth is usually measured by Advancing stocks versus Declining ones, or New Highs versus New Lows. In this incessant Bull market rally, higher advances have been the norm, as have the New Highs, especially in the NYSE. Such an upward right  translation is thought of as a strong market, with the majority of investors on the Buy side. At some  point that will change - suddenly and drastically. As Harry Domash cited at one Money Show talk I attended: The Trend is your Friend, until it Bends at the End!

Usually a 10 to 1 ratio of the above indicators is something to be monitored, being a bit unusual; last week, however, the NYSE New Hi/Lo total reached a 20:1 ratio - something I've never seen before. Thanks greatly to the Fed's zero interest rate policy (ZIRP), this market keeps getting stronger. Barron's columnist Randall Forsyth opines that many corporations, such as Monsanto, are using low cost debt to buyback their own stock which could perpetuate the move.

How long this will last is unpredictable, but the last 3 Augusts have seen declines of at least 3%, also reports Barron's. Last week, all three major indices set new highs - the DJIA, SPX, and Nasdaq. Market action around holidays is usually positive, especially if around the first of the month. The VIX - volatility indicator- also hit a recent low, signifying complacency.

Finally, as seen below, for what it's worth in indicating Inflation, the 2-year Treasury yield it a recent high of .51%; the 10-year yield in France, however, is at a 300- year low, with Germany and Japan close behind.


Here are the numbers from the holiday-shortened week: 


Date> 7/3/14*hol 6/27/2014
Indices: DJIA  17068 16851
  NAZ  4485 4397
SPX  1985 1960
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 6.3/2.6 9.5/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.42 2.44
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  52 53
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 10.3 11.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1944/1276 1817/1414
Weekly Net: 668 403
     Cumulative: 164731 164063
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 599/30 556/66
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 307/51 224/98
McClellan  Oscillator 5 13
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 1053 1000
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 57.6 60.2
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 16.1 16.3
AAII  -Bull :wed. 38.5 37.2
Bear  22.4 21.1
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k n/a       .6/6
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 n/a (131k)
CEOinsider selling 20:1 52:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 175:25 175:20
3-box rev Bullish%-  84 83
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (2.6B)
MMF flows Change in $B 13.1B 5B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  428B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1069/428/276
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.51% 0.46%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, June 30, 2014

INCORRECT IN JUNE

According to Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders, since 1962 there has been a CORRECTION of at least 9% in every mid-term election year, such as the present one. So far into 2014, now half way through, the largest was the immediate 5.7% in early February, and ending the semi-annual period up 6.3% YTD.
June was to be the worst month based on years going back to 1945, with May, August and September close behind.

So far this year the Sentiment numbers. like the VIX, tend to make one's eyes glass over- last week was no exception. May's totals for ETFs continue to grow to record highs (see below), and the monthly margin debt drop again, although still high, with zero interest rates. Both sets of Insider trading (legal) remain high, but differed when looked at by Sectors (52 to 1 sellers), or individuals ( officers and 10% stakeholders).   Also high once more - Commercial sellers of Gold, perhaps quarter-ending action.

Breadth (advance/decline and new highs/lows) remain strong - the latter 10 to 1- Wire House Bulls stay above 60% and Bears in the low 20s. Here are the numbers:

Date> 6/27/2014 6/20/2014
Indices: DJIA  16851 16947
  NAZ  4397 4368
SPX  1960 1962
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 9.5/3.9 9.6/4.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.44 2.29
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  53 47
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.3 10.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1817/1414 2243/973
Weekly Net: 403 1270
     Cumulative: 164063 163660
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 556/66 574/51
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 224/98 278/90
McClellan  Oscillator 13 16
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 1000 983
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 60.2 61.4
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 16.3 16.3
AAII  -Bull :wed. 37.2 35.2
Bear  21.1 24.1
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k       .6/6 12/(11)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (131k) (75k)
CEOinsider selling 52:1 17:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 175:20 175:35
3-box rev Bullish%-  83 84
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (1.8B)
MMF flows Change in $B 5B (31B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  428B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1069/428/276
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.46% 0.46%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, June 16, 2014

More POOR Than STANDARD

The S&P 500 took a slight hiccup last week (25 points), a little over 1% - hardly the June correction we've been expecting - we still have option expiry, summer solstice, and quarterly rebalancing to go yet.

Standout Sentiment numbers last week included the Inv. Intell. Bulls near a record of 62%, the same number as the ratio of Insider Sellers to Buyers, as stated by Sectors. Individual tallies, officers/board members as well as 10% stockholders showed a fairly high number again, but not climactic.

Funnily enough, the record since I've been keeping these (around a decade), the highest number of Sector Selling was in May of 2009 - just when this huge Bull market was getting started - Go Figure.
Also at a recent record, for whatever it is worth, is the 2-year Treas. interest rate, at 0.45%

Here are the numbers:


Date> 6/13/2014 6/6/2014
Indices: DJIA  16775 16924
  NAZ  4310 4321
SPX  1936 1949
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 8.9/2.9 8.4/3.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 3.07 2.71
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  51 51
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.2 10.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1302/1910 2093/1135
Weekly Net: -608 958
     Cumulative: 162390 162998
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 492/41 574/66
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 288/68 237/137
McClellan  Oscillator -8 35
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 950 915
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 62.6 62.2
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 17.2 17.4
AAII  -Bull :wed. 44.7 39.5
Bear  21.3 22.2
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 11/(9) 4k/3k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (85k) (64K)
CEOinsider selling 62:1 26:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 180:40 170:50
3-box rev Bullish%-  82 78
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (2.0B)
MMF flows Change in $B 2.6B 2.6B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  APR.
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B APR.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.45%nh 0.41%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, June 9, 2014

DEJA VIEW

Under glassy eyes, the markets keep inching forward to new highs - strong breadth, but continued weak Volume. Even the complacent CBOE put/call ratio is at mid-range -50-, while the VIX slips into the 10 handle. Not since 2007 has it held at that range, just before the SPX got cut in half.

The I.I. (Investors Intelligence) Bulls are at 62.2% - the second highest EVER. NY new highs are almost ten to one.
Here are the numbers- for more commentary, click on:   http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

(You can get the FREE Examiner.com column weekly by clicking on SUBSCRIBE)

Date> 6/6/2014 5/30/2014
Indices: DJIA  16924 16717
  NAZ  4321 4242
SPX  1949 1923
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 8.4/3.1 7.0/2.7*
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.71 2.59
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  51 54
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 10.7 11.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2093/1135 2118/1091
Weekly Net: 958 1027
     Cumulative: 162998 162040
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 574/66 425/62
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 237/137 182/83
McClellan  Oscillator 35 24
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 915 855
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 62.2 58.3
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 17.4 17.3
AAII  -Bull :wed. 39.5 36.5
Bear  22.2 23.2
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 4k/3k 10k/2k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (64K) (79k)
CEOinsider selling 26:1 25:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 170:50 175:35
3-box rev Bullish%-  78 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (2.6B)
MMF flows Change in $B 2.6B 3.3B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  APR. 437B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B APR. 1056/412/263
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.41% 0.38%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, June 2, 2014

Will June Swoon Soon?

The stock market is like Lance Armstrong - hopefully it ends better! With the Fed as EPO it just keeps moving higher by bits, wiping out most downturns intraday. Even most Sentiment Indicators are glassy-eyed, with the exception of the VIX - it has closed below 12 about the same number of days (5) as the S&P 500 (SPX) has been above the double-zero 1900; this aborted my filter of 3 days closing above Resistance, and bodes well for higher prices.

Still, we have to get through June, the mid-term election jinx month; notable extremes to Sentiment include the Inv. Intell. Bull/Bear ratio still above 3:1 Bulls, at 58 to 17. Commercial gold sellers have finally backed off, as have insider sellers and even margin debt, despite low interest rates.

Here are the numbers (with the latest monthly ETF amounts for April:


Date> 5/30/2014 5/23/2014
Indices: DJIA  16717 16606
  NAZ  4242 4185
SPX  1923 1900
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 7.0/2.7* 8.4/3.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.59 2.8
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  54 63
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.4 11.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2118/1091 2107/1115
Weekly Net: 1027 992
     Cumulative: 162040 161013
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 425/62 290/78
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 182/83 111/156
McClellan  Oscillator 24 15
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 855 747
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 58.3 57.2
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 17.3 18.3
AAII  -Bull :wed. 36.5 30.3
Bear  23.2 26.4
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 10k/2k 8k/8k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (79k) (106K)
CEOinsider selling 25:1 17::1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 175:35 160:20
3-box rev Bullish%-  76 74
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (1.8B)
MMF flows Change in $B 3.3B (3.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  437B APR.
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1056/412/263 APR.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.38% 0.35%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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