Friday, September 22, 2017

EARLY EDITION

On vacation for a couple weeks, so here is the data (most stats) for the past week:
Most data slightly weaker than previous - Delta MSI (stocks on BUYs) had a nice jump up (Bullish), as are most breadth and sentiment indicators recently. VIX broke down below 10 - a good time to buy calls, as we're not out of the Danger Zone yet. Week turned negative toward the end, but still closed to new weekly highs (except NAS).
Here are the numbers so far:

Date   9/22/2017 9/15/2017
Indices: DJIA  22349 22268
  NAZ  6427 6448
SPX  2502 2500
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. N/A 10.0/5.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish N/A 1.85
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  N/A 60
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 9.7 10.2
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 65 57
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. N/A 2097/945
Weekly Net: N/A 1152
     Cumulative: N/A 180684
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… N/A 373/33
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l N/A 416/88
McClellan  Oscillator 15 38
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 648 535
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 50.5 47.1
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 19 20.2
Wed. AAII  -Bull  40.1 41.3
Bear  27.2 22
US$-WSJ 92.2 91.8
3-box rev Bullish%-  69 69
US equity -ICI Fund Flows weeklate weeklate
MMF flows Change in $B (16.4B) 16.8B*
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  550B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.26 2.20
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.44 1.37
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114 114.5

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, September 18, 2017

TECHNICIANS' DELIGHT

Thanks be to Barron's for their reportage, and a tip of the hat to Sam Stoval of CFRA (much to the displeasure of his papa - Robert, I'm sure) ,and Vito Racanelli's column, several Technical trivia have emerged about the stock market:
2017 is becoming a rara avis historically for stocks, with only 8 days of more than 1% Volatility, vs. the average of 50/year since WWII - with 32 New Highs for the SPX - twice the average during that time. And, only 17 times that Aug. and Sept. ( so far !!) both closed positively.
Vito brings up the issue of declining public stocks, which has been cut in half over the past 20 years ( 3600 vs. 7200 in 1996); private equity seems to be replacing IPOs, due to pressures of being public and private $$ less demanding of activists. I remember the company's mandate before 2000 was what was best for the company and consumer, where it changed to  best for the stockholder ( whose major owners were CEOs, etc.) Interesting.

Not much notable amongst Sentiment and Breadth numbers this week, although markets did make new highs, and the NYSE and Nasdaq new highs jumped, and $$ flowed out of Equities and into MMFs again. And Advance/Declines made a turnaround reversal again from the prior week.

Here are the numbers:

Date 9/15/2017 9/8/2017
Indices: DJIA  22268 21797
NAZ  6448 6360
SPX  2500 2461
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 10.0/5.4 7.5/3.3*
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.85 2.27
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  60 63
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 10.2 12.1
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 57 54
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2097/945 1227/1839
Weekly Net: 1152 -612
     Cumulative: 180684 179534
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 373/33 280/88
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 416/88 300/132
McClellan  Oscillator 38 13
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 535 347
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 47.1 49.5
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 20.2 19.1
Wed. AAII  -Bull  41.3 29.3
Bear  22 35.7
US$-WSJ 91.8 91.3
3-box rev Bullish%-  69 66
US equity -ICI Fund Flows weeklate (2.9B)
MMF flows Change in $B 16.8B* 11.1B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  550B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.20 2.05
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.37 1.27
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114.5 115.2



With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, September 11, 2017

REVERSAL OF FORTUNE

I was Shocked ! Shocked ! when I saw the stock market futures last night and more so when it opened today. After all the turmoil - domestically and globally of the weekend, and a dismal August for stocks, the next 4-5 weeks are consistently the worst of the year historically. So we're not out of the woods yet, at least for a minor correction - a Recession is probably still 18-24 months away. But when it hits, it will be a doozy as US and global Debt rises exponentially out of control.

Volume was down, due to the 4-day week, breadth was slightly negative ( Advances, New Highs, etc.); most all else was frozen from last week. See below:

SPX  2461 2476
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 7.5/3.3* 8.2/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.27 2.28
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  63 57
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.1 10.1
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 54 51
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1227/1839 2210/867
Weekly Net: -612 1343
     Cumulative: 179534 180146nh
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 280/88 285/115
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 300/132 302/133
McClellan  Oscillator 13 46
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 347 267
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 49.5 49.5
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 19.1 19.1
Wed. AAII  -Bull  29.3 25
Bear  35.7 39.9
US$-WSJ 91.3 92.8
3-box rev Bullish%-  66 66
US equity -ICI Fund Flows weeklate 3.7B
MMF flows Change in $B 11.1B (20B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  JULY:
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.05 2.17
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.27 1.35
TIP (ETF) Inflation 115.2 114.2



With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Tuesday, September 5, 2017

RECESS

In school, Recess was always looked forward to - but in Economics, Recessions are definitely anathema . As history is our guide, nearly every zero year in the decade has seen one- since 1900 there has always been at least one ( up to 3).
So far in the last ten years we have not seen one. Barron's Cover story has a nice chart of how stock Crashes involve Recessions, usually precede the "R" by a year or so, and 5 of the last 6 since 1970 were just after the 0.
As for now, both Technical and Fundamental (Quant) signals are still Bullish, but the next 3-4 weeks could see a single-digit Correction before a final leg up into next year. Another conclusive signal to watch for in a R is the Flat Yield curve, where short term rates - 2-year and 3-month Treasurys (as well as the Fed Funds) are higher than the 10-year Tsy. (backwardation in futures lingo).

Last week saw Volume starting to pick up again as the Nasdaq made a new high ; the McClellan Oscillator (advances v. decline formula) gave a sell signal Friday at +46 -providential. Finally, MMFs (money markets) Flows reversed bigtime -see below:

Date 9/1/2017 8/25/2017
Indices: DJIA  21987 21813
NAZ  6435nh 6265
SPX  2476 2443
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 8.2/3.6 7.6/3.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.28 2.17
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  57 61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 10.1 11.3
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 51 48
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2210/867 2126/944
Weekly Net: 1343 1182
     Cumulative: 180146nh 178803
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 285/115 207/203
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 302/133 152/222
McClellan  Oscillator 46 8
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 267 172
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 49.5 48.1
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 19.1 18.3
Wed. AAII  -Bull  25 28.1
Bear  39.9 38.3
US$-WSJ 92.8 92.5
3-box rev Bullish%-  66 65
US equity -ICI Fund Flows weeklate (4.7B)
MMF flows Change in $B (20B) 29,4B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  JULY: 550B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.17 2.17
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.35 1.33
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114.2 114.1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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