Monday, March 26, 2012

BASSETTI THE UN"BEAR"ABLE:

In this weekend's Barron's magazine, friend, colleague and fellow Adjunct Professor at GGU, W.H,C, "Charles" Bassetti was quoted in the Market Watch section as a major Bull - a departure from the times I've followed his (mostly correct) forecasts. This is in the camp of Dr. Hank Pruden (also GGU) with his forecast awhile back approaching 20,000 DJIA.
As a follower of the 18-year cycle (from 1790), I respectfully disagree, as I buy into the Lost Decade (double) of Martin Pring. With the overhangs of public and private debt (much higher than 1929) and a stubborn unemployment, my view is quite choppy until at least 2018 ( a Fibonacci number from 1929). What would kick out my view would be a hyperinflation trashing of the Dollar before  then, where we break out the wheelbarrows from Germany.
Another prediction - this from Tom Demark on Bloomberg (for whom he has been the chief Technical Analysts for years) - today marks  the top for awhile.
Predictions aside, after several Sentiment Indicators previously reached extreme highs (Bearish), they have currently receded: Nasdaq Volume vis-a-vis NYSE (speculative), the CBOE put/call ratio; high Money Market Outflows - although mostly into Bonds. One standout below is the Key Insider Selling ratio, after doubling last week, it rose again to 80:1 sellers. These are officers who should know what their company is doing, but they were egregiously wrong in the Spring of '09 - just as the roaring Bull was starting.
Here are the numbers:


Date>
3/22/2012 3/15/2012
Indices: DJIA  13080 13232
  NAZ  3067 3055

SPX  1397 1404
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 7.5/3.7 8.4/4.9
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.03 1.71
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  57 55
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14.8 14.5

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1393/1765 1777/1395

Weekly Net: -372 382

     Cumulative: 133425 133797
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 235/40 355/39
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 293/58 330/60
McClellan  Oscillator 38 -13
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 765 891
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 48.4 43.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 23.6 26.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. 42.4 45.6

Bear  27.8 27.2
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 10/(4) (2)/4
CEOinsider selling 83:1 60:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 874 824
3-box rev Bullish%-  83 83
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (2.9B)
MMF flows Change in $B (15.5B) (8.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly OCT.

ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ OCT.

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.37% 0.37%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset-CommHedg 4.9 5.39

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, March 19, 2012

UPGRADING THE PC:

The next Sentiment blog you read will (hopefully) be from my new IT setup from this afternoon. With some tech guidance, I shall reformat the blog grid to show more detail and in better format.
Although we had the SELL spike a few weeks ago in Sentiment, things have quieted down (scarily - like when the Fed was accused of manipulating the market many months ago in the media -and by me). MMF funds are moving out, but to bonds, not equities! The CBOE put/call ratio and Volume speculation (Nas v. NY) dropped precipitously; as did the VIX - below 14. The 2-year Treas.yield spiked up to .37% (Inflation?), and the CEO Insider selling doubled to 60:1 over buyers. Too good to be true...


Date>
3/15/2012 3/8/2012
Indices: DJIA  13232 12922
  NAZ  3055 2988

SPX  1404 1370
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 8.4/4.9 8.3/3.7
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.71 2.24
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  55 68
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14.5 17.1

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1777/1395 1667/1475

Weekly Net: 382 192

     Cumulative: 133797 133415
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 355/39 248/46
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 330/60 177/88
McClellan  Oscillator -13 0
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 891 912
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 43.6 47.9
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 26.6 26.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. 45.6 42.4

Bear  27.2 29
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k (2)/4 (9)/20
CEOinsider selling 60:1 34:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 824 771
3-box rev Bullish%-  83 83
US equity -ICI Fund Flows (1.4B) 1 wk lag
MMF flows Change in $B (8.2B) (7.0B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly OCT.

ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ OCT.

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.37% 0.33%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset-CommHedg 5.39 5.23

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, March 12, 2012

GETTING SENTIMENTAL:

The quickest way to double your money is
to fold it in half and put it back in your pocket.

Markets are still having trouble getting through resistance: triple zero (the DJIA at 13,000); the S&P 500, 1370 prior top, etc. Technically this works because people who bought there are selling to get even, and technicians are aware of this - so it is self-fulfilling.
 In Wyckoff jargon, the current Trading Range is transfer of shares either from strong hands to weak (for a Distribution) or the opposite (ReAccumulation). Future direction will give the answer.
No new extremes to report, only a Regression from the recent ones - put/calls at 68; Bullish % at 83; CEO selling still high. Here are the numbers:

Date>
3/8/2012 3/1/2012
Indices: DJIA  12922 12977..
NAZ  2988 2976

SPX  1370 1369
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 8.3/3.7 9.3/4.1
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.24 2.27
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  68 63
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17.1 17.3

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1667/1475 1401/1759..

Weekly Net: 192 -358

     Cumulative: 133415 133223
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 248/46 383/27
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 177/88 236/63
McClellan  Oscillator 0 -37
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 912 1116
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 47.9 51.1
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 26.6 25.5

AAII  -Bull :wed. 42.4 44.5

Bear  29 26.8
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k (9)/20 (5)/24
CEOinsider selling 34:1 45:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 771 763
3-box rev Bullish%-  83 85
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (3.1B)
MMF flows Change in $B (7.0B) (13.1B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly OCT.

ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ OCT.

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.33% 0.28%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset-CommHedg 5.23 5.19
 

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, March 5, 2012

SAME-O, SAME-O:

After a boring week ( the DJIA rose 4 points), Sentiment Indicators reflected same: most were Bearish FOR the market - Bullish %, newsletter surveys of Bulls/Bears; Insider selling still high at 45:1.
Bullish Indicators were CBOE put/call ratio, showing hedging - and the McClellan Oscillator nearing the bottom of its range, at -37. Major market indices' trendlines were broken on Friday, and continue down today.
Here are the stats:


Date>
3/1/2012 2/24/2012..
Indices: DJIA  12977 12982
  NAZ  2976 2963

SPX  1369 1365
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 9.3/4.1 6.9/2.9
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.27 2.38
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  63 66
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17.3 17.3

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1401/1759 1790/1343

Weekly Net: -358 447

     Cumulative: 133223 133581
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 383/27 336/7
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 236/63 230/44
McClellan  Oscillator -37 -6
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 1116 1231
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 51.1 51.1
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 25.5 26.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. 44.5 43.7

Bear  26.8 27.5
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k (5)/24 (8)/30
CEOinsider selling 45:1 91:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 763 706
3-box rev Bullish%-  85 85
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (.3B)
MMF flows Change in $B (13.1B) 6.2B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly OCT.

ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ OCT.

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.28% 0.31%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset-CommHedg 5.19 5.08

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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