Monday, April 30, 2012


Next week's Sentiment blog will occur early (Friday) due to my vacationing in Lake Tahoe. The past week, due to the rally back with increasing volatility, there is a mixed picture. My cumulative Adv./Decl. is at a new high, indicative of strong buying, yet the CEO Insider Selling shot to a 58:1 ratio over Buyers (albeit on low Volume).
The previous week ( the "Selling" week) saw $8.7B come out of Equity funds, although flows from all ETFs for March (see bottom of table) - domestic and foreign equity, and bond ETFs- were flat. Margin buying increased slightly, per ICI.
The AAII Bull/Bear ratio became more inverted - a bullish sign. And very short term (as we see today) the McClellan Oscillator rose to +44, near my +50 line.
Here are the numbers:

4/27/2012 4/20/2012
Indices: DJIA  13228 13029
NAZ  3069 3000

SPX  1403 1378
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 8.6/3.9 8.6/4.0
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.21 2.15
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  59 63
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 16.3 17.4

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2251/923 2036/1136

Weekly Net: 1328 900

     Cumulative: 133728 132400
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 308/102 208/93
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 238/125 194/120
McClellan  Oscillator 44 -8
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 193 139
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 41.9 44.1
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 23.7 23.7

AAII  -Bull :wed. 27.6 31.2

Bear  37.4 33.8
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 2/(8) 8/(5)
CEOinsider selling 58:1 12:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 1116 972
3-box rev Bullish%-  71 74
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (8.7B)
MMF flows Change in $B (.5B) .3B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  MARCH $295B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ . MARCH 704/286/202
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.27% 0.28%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset-CommHedg 5.3 5.3

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