Monday, April 30, 2012

THE BIG CASINO:

Next week's Sentiment blog will occur early (Friday) due to my vacationing in Lake Tahoe. The past week, due to the rally back with increasing volatility, there is a mixed picture. My cumulative Adv./Decl. is at a new high, indicative of strong buying, yet the CEO Insider Selling shot to a 58:1 ratio over Buyers (albeit on low Volume).
The previous week ( the "Selling" week) saw $8.7B come out of Equity funds, although flows from all ETFs for March (see bottom of table) - domestic and foreign equity, and bond ETFs- were flat. Margin buying increased slightly, per ICI.
The AAII Bull/Bear ratio became more inverted - a bullish sign. And very short term (as we see today) the McClellan Oscillator rose to +44, near my +50 line.
Here are the numbers:

Date>
4/27/2012 4/20/2012
Indices: DJIA  13228 13029
NAZ  3069 3000

SPX  1403 1378
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 8.6/3.9 8.6/4.0
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.21 2.15
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  59 63
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 16.3 17.4

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2251/923 2036/1136

Weekly Net: 1328 900

     Cumulative: 133728 132400
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 308/102 208/93
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 238/125 194/120
McClellan  Oscillator 44 -8
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 193 139
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 41.9 44.1
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 23.7 23.7

AAII  -Bull :wed. 27.6 31.2

Bear  37.4 33.8
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 2/(8) 8/(5)
CEOinsider selling 58:1 12:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 1116 972
3-box rev Bullish%-  71 74
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (8.7B)
MMF flows Change in $B (.5B) .3B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  MARCH $295B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ . MARCH 704/286/202
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.27% 0.28%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset-CommHedg 5.3 5.3

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