Monday, March 26, 2012


In this weekend's Barron's magazine, friend, colleague and fellow Adjunct Professor at GGU, W.H,C, "Charles" Bassetti was quoted in the Market Watch section as a major Bull - a departure from the times I've followed his (mostly correct) forecasts. This is in the camp of Dr. Hank Pruden (also GGU) with his forecast awhile back approaching 20,000 DJIA.
As a follower of the 18-year cycle (from 1790), I respectfully disagree, as I buy into the Lost Decade (double) of Martin Pring. With the overhangs of public and private debt (much higher than 1929) and a stubborn unemployment, my view is quite choppy until at least 2018 ( a Fibonacci number from 1929). What would kick out my view would be a hyperinflation trashing of the Dollar before  then, where we break out the wheelbarrows from Germany.
Another prediction - this from Tom Demark on Bloomberg (for whom he has been the chief Technical Analysts for years) - today marks  the top for awhile.
Predictions aside, after several Sentiment Indicators previously reached extreme highs (Bearish), they have currently receded: Nasdaq Volume vis-a-vis NYSE (speculative), the CBOE put/call ratio; high Money Market Outflows - although mostly into Bonds. One standout below is the Key Insider Selling ratio, after doubling last week, it rose again to 80:1 sellers. These are officers who should know what their company is doing, but they were egregiously wrong in the Spring of '09 - just as the roaring Bull was starting.
Here are the numbers:

3/22/2012 3/15/2012
Indices: DJIA  13080 13232
  NAZ  3067 3055

SPX  1397 1404
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 7.5/3.7 8.4/4.9
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.03 1.71
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  57 55
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14.8 14.5

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1393/1765 1777/1395

Weekly Net: -372 382

     Cumulative: 133425 133797
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 235/40 355/39
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 293/58 330/60
McClellan  Oscillator 38 -13
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 765 891
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 48.4 43.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 23.6 26.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. 42.4 45.6

Bear  27.8 27.2
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 10/(4) (2)/4
CEOinsider selling 83:1 60:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 874 824
3-box rev Bullish%-  83 83
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (2.9B)
MMF flows Change in $B (15.5B) (8.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly OCT.

ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ OCT.

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.37% 0.37%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset-CommHedg 4.9 5.39

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