Monday, March 28, 2016

BAD BREADTH

After a huge market runup for 5 weeks, stocks look a bit tired, breadth-wise (advances and declines). The McClellan Summation Index is dropping from its near-highs (@ 1000), and its Indicator has dropped from +60 to minus 5 in the past week; the NYA Index of New York stocks is making lower highs and lows after its all-time high last summer.

OTOH (on the other hand) my newly found Indicator, the Delta MSI is showing a high (69) Bullish number as is the Bullish % - stocks on a buy signal. So the picture, once again, is mixed.

Duke U. ( Ducks recent adversary in the NCAAs) Finance school - Fuqua - say that fast 3 times- reports that a poll of CFOs say the minimum wage hike will: cut hiring (75% polled), result in layoffs (75%), cut into employe benefits (66%) and hike prices (50%). 1/3 of these Finance Officers also see a Recession in 2016.

Here are last week's sentiment #s:

Date> 2016 3/24/16* 3/18/2016
Indices: DJIA  17515 17602
  NAZ  4773 4795
SPX  2035 2049
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 6.4/3.4* 9.6/6.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.88 1.52
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  82 66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14.7 14
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 69% 61%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1055/2113 2271/907
Weekly Net: -1058 1364
     Cumulative: 162566 163624
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 166/27 248/37
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 101/96 146/147
McClellan  Oscillator -5 60
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 990 917
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 47.4 44.4
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 27 30.3
Wed. AAII  -Bull  33.8 30
Bear  23.7 26.9
US$-WSJ 96.1 95.1
3-box rev Bullish%-  76 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows weekLate (.2B)
MMF flows Change in $B (14.8B) (40B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  447B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.89% 0.84%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.2 113.6


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, March 21, 2016

KA-SHING!!!

Is it only coincidence that the richest man in Asia is named Li Ka-shing (as in cash register? Talk about Income inequality. His empire is 15% of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. A regular Trump.

Normally I use this Facebook space for my Monday stock market Sentiment indicators, but from now on I'll just refer to the numbers at: www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com and save space in the ether.

That said, both breadth (advances/declines, etc.) and sentiment were Bullish last week, with my new Indicator - Delta MSI- hitting 61%. The VIX dropped to 14 ( I strongly recommend hedging one's portfolio with the TVIX, now at its baseline low @$5. It will come in handy if/when the market tanks again. TIPs hit 113 last week, a sigh of Inflation, but no worry at present. 123 was the 2012 high. A recent surge of $40B came out of MMFunds last week.

Coincidence #2: when I started my investment strategy of DITM (deep-in-the-money) covered calls in 2009 (wrote a book - Zero-Intolerance- in 2010) it was two months into a new Bull market in stocks - not the best environment for the plan. However, it has done well in this Zero.Negative Rate time, and is now poised to be the right plan for the coming months - high Volatility, lower stock prices, higher dividends, etc.

I just received an email from a colleague from the SF Options Group that he is giving a presentation on DITM at the Baraban Roundtable on the peninsula.

Date> 2016 3/18/2016 3/11/2016
Indices: DJIA  17602 17213
  NAZ  4795 4748
SPX  2049 2022
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.6/6.3 9.5/5.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.52 1.79
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  66 70
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14 16.5
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 61% 58%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2271/907 2087/1104
Weekly Net: 1364 983
     Cumulative: 163624 162260
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 248/37 203/28
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 146/147 104/110
McClellan  Oscillator 60 73
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 917 682
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 44.4 39.4
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 30.3 35.4
Wed. AAII  -Bull  30 37.4
Bear  26.9 24.4
US$-WSJ 95.1 96.2
3-box rev Bullish%-  76 74
US equity -ICI Fund Flows (.2B) weekLate
MMF flows Change in $B (40B) (1.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.84% 0.95%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.6 111.9

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, March 14, 2016

WHAT GOES UP

Must come down! Whether it be the stock market floating on overvaluation, or Gold and commodities rising on short covering, rather than increased demand, at some Resistance point markets will reverse.
The usually accurate McClellan Oscillator has been over bought for the second week; Bull/Bear newsletters are starting to get complacent (positive ratio). A new addition to the Indicators, from Barron's Market Lab: Delta MSI - 3600 stocks breaking up through their MAC (moving average crossover) .aka golden cross. Above 50% is Bullish. This week it is 58%.

Here are the numbers:

Date> 2016 3/11/2016 3/4/2016
Indices: DJIA  17213 17006
  NAZ  4748 4717
SPX  2022 2000
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.5/5.3 10.0/6.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.79 1.66
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  70 61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 16.5 16.9
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 58% N/A
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2087/1104 2723/481
Weekly Net: 983 2242
     Cumulative: 162260 161277
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 203/28 186/57
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 104/110 108/128
McClellan  Oscillator 73 104
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 682 324
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 39.4 36.4
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 35.4 34.3
Wed. AAII  -Bull  37.4 32
Bear  24.4 29.3
US$-WSJ 96.2 97.2
3-box rev Bullish%-  74 71
US equity -ICI Fund Flows weekLate (2.2B)
MMF flows Change in $B (1.2B) 26.0B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.95% 0.86%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 111.9 112.6


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, March 7, 2016

IT'S A BOY!!!

As of this morning I am again the proud Great Uncle Brent (aka GUB) as Hendrik arrived a bit ahead of schedule. Joy tops all Sentiment Indicators for now.

However, for the stock market, last week was unremarkable. Causing a bit of notice was a breath of Inflation, as measured by a slight nudge of the TIP, well below its Nov. 2012 high of 123. Barron's advises playing Vanguards ETF VTIP rather than the TIP one which has a CPI component as well as coupons. Still early for that, but the 2 year Treas. also jumped up a bit as well.
MMFs (money markets) inflows  have been doubling lately (for the fourth week); equity mutual funds also went positive for only the second time since Sept. 2015, although most went into ETFs from these open end funds.
Both stocks and commodities have been on a positive roll lately - stocks since the downswing in Jan; commodities since 2011. Neither seem to have grounds for a sustained move - more like short covering. Time will tell.  Gold seems more likely, in lieu of global events.

Here are the numbers:


Date> 2016 3/4/2016 2/26/2016
Indices: DJIA  17006 16639
  NAZ  4717 4590
SPX  2000 1948
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 10.0/6.0 8.9/4.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.66 1.82
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  61 65
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 16.9 19.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2723/481 2358/833
Weekly Net: 2242 1525
     Cumulative: 161277 159035
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 186/57 155/120
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 108/128 90/209
McClellan  Oscillator 104 76
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 324 -139
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 36.4 34.7
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 34.3 35.7
Wed. AAII  -Bull  32 31.2
Bear  29.3 31.4
US$-WSJ 97.2 98.1
3-box rev Bullish%-  71 57
US equity -ICI Fund Flows weekLate 2.1B
MMF flows Change in $B 26.0B 15.1B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  445B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.86% 0.80%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 112.6 112.4


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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