Monday, November 30, 2009

DUE-BYE…KLUNK:

Yet another bubble of excess falls off a cliff - we'll know in the fullness of time what effect Dubai will have on the precarious global picture. Meanwhile Klunkers for Kars expires today -222,000 turned in, helping the sales numbers. Dow Theorists may observe that the Transports have put in a Head & Shoulder Top, in a divergence from the Industrials.

Although the AAII has the Bulls and Bears tied last week at 41.7, the I.I. (Inv.Intell.) has a huge spread of 50.6 to 17.6- Conventional wisdom is that the zugzwang of forced performance by money managers will carry us through '09; after the Dubai shocker, little was changed on the Holiday week, except lower Volume.

MktSentiment
Last Week Prev. Week 5 Year Hi 5 Year Low
DJIA:
10309
10318
14093
6626
Nasdaq:
2138
2146
2126
1114
S&P 500:
1091
1091
1561
683
CBOE Eq. put/call:
58
64
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX:
24.7
22.2
90
8.8
McClellan Osc:
-28
-29
108
-100
McClellan Sum:
393
414
1568
-1514
Newsletter Surveys




InvestorsIntel.Bull:
50.6
46.1
63
22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
17.6
21.3
54.4
16
AAII Bull:
41.7
42.7
n/a
n/a
AAII Bear:
41.7
31.8
n/a
n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:
0.70
0.64
2.2
0.56
Mutual Fund Flows:
n/a
1.6B


Money Market Flows
-7.8B
3.7B


ETF equity:Monthly Totals
Oct.691B
Sep.$580B


Baltic Dry Index:
3974
4507
11700
663
Bullish %:
77
76
88
2
Insider Corporate Sellers:
26:1
31:1
108:1
2.4:1
VIX Volatility:
-63
-62
12
-70
VIX 1-month Future:
-61
-62
2
-59
VIX 5-month Future:
-19
-21
8
-23

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, November 23, 2009

PARALLEL UNIVERSE:

John Mendelson, the former Chief Technical Analyst at Schwab, used to reiterate: Watch what they DO, not what they SAY! According to the talking heads on TV, echoing gov't positivity, Retail Sales and Income are rising nicely. John Mauldin, in his newsletter, wonders why there are no concomitant increases in Sales Taxes and State Income Taxes!

Meanwhile the trends continue in zugzwang (forced) fashion for the markets and gold, while the dollar keeps slip sliding away. Although the OTC market seems weaker, the new lows are declining actually more than the NYSE;  all else seems to be in Holiday limbo, except for the number of Bears declining in newsletters and CEO/Insider Selling has picked up even more.

Here are the stats:


MktSentiment
Last Week
Prev. Week
5 Year HI
5 Year LOW
DJIA:
10318
10270
14093
6626
Nasdaq:
2167
2146
2126
1114
S&P 500:
1091
1093
1561
683
CBOE Eq. put/call:
64
57
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX:
22.2
23.4
90
8.8
McClellan Osc:
-29
5
108
-100
McClellan Sum:
414
396
1568
-1514
Newsletter Surveys




InvestorsIntel.Bull:
46.1
44.4
63
22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
21.3
26.7
54.4
16
AAII Bull:
42.7
38.6
n/a
n/a
AAII Bear:
31.8
38.6
n/a
n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:
0.64
0.53
2.2
0.56
Mutual Fund Flows:
n/a
8.4B


Money Market Flows
-3.68B
3.7B


ETF Equity:Monthly Totals
598B
567B


Baltic Dry Index:
4507
4111
11700
663
Bullish %:
77
76
88
2
Insider Corporate Sellers:
31:1
23:1
108:1
2.4:1
VIX Volatility:
-62
-68
12
-70
VIX 1-month Future:
-62
-60
2
-59
VIX 5-month Future:
-21
-22
8
-23

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, November 16, 2009

TRISKAIDECAPHOBIA:

Another Friday the 13th passes harmlessly, as did a very interesting TSAA Annual Seminar at Golden Gate Univ., especially for those interested in options, with several seasoned veterans holding forth - Jon Najarian, Rick Ackerman, Tim Knight, Charles Cottle, and a webinar by Dan Sullivan, et.al.

Over 100 attendees sat and listened for 9 hours to various software programs, strategies, etc.

The market continues its upward march fueled by corporate cash not wanting to invest in capital or dividends, 8% cash in bond MMFs, and hedgehogs and other money managers not wanting to show absence in this roaring bull.

Most indicators are mid-range, while the Baltic Dry Index broke a 4-handle for the first time in awhile. The AAII made a quantum shift to dead even Bulls/Bears.

Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment
Last Week
Prev. Week
5 Yr Hi
5 Yr Low
DJIA:
10270
10023
14093
6626
Nasdaq:
2167
2112
2126
1114
S&P 500:
1093
1069
1561
683
CBOE Eq. put/call:
57
67
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX:
23.4
24.2
90
8.8
McClellan Osc:
5
-13
108
-100
McClellan Sum:
396
363
1568
-1514
Newsletter Surveys




InvestorsIntel.Bull:
44.4
48.3
63
22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
26.7
24.7
54.4
16
AAII Bull:
33.7
22.2
n/a
n/a
AAII Bear:
42.3
55.6
n/a
n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:
0.53
0.52
2.2
0.56
Mutual Fund Flows:
-4.7B
Money Market Flows
-3.68B
-3B
ETF Flows: Monthly Totals
Sep 580B
Aug 657B
Baltic Dry Index:
4111
3393
11700
663
Bullish %:
76
73
88
2
Insider Corporate Sellers:
23:1
14:1
108:1
2.4:1
VIX Volatility:
-50
-65
12
-70
VIX 1-month Future:
-45
-59
2
-59
VIX 5-month Future:
-20
-23
8
-23

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, November 9, 2009

TSAA'S PUBLIC "OPTION":

This Saturday the TSAA of San Francisco is presenting its Annual Seminar with the theme of Options, and some of the brightest stars in the field, including Jon Najarian (Dr. J), Tim Knight, Dan Sheridan, et.al. Over 100 are expected, due to membership discounts, great food, Continuing Educ. credits, etc.

More info can be found at tsaasf.org.

Markets seem to be blowing bubbles again with this constant liquidity - the Greenspan put vs. the Taylor Rule from the Fed. My personal guess is that the Obama gov't cut a deal with the big banks to give them their money if they promised no exogenous shocks to the market, usually occurring in Sept. Oct.

Sentiment would dictate that the dollar is way oversold (90% bears), inflows into ETFs such as Brazil (up 100%), and Gold (GLD has more physical gold than all but 4 of the Central Banks!). The UUP, which rises on a strong Dollar, has huge open interest and volume in Nov. and Dec.

Indicators are swinging wildly this week - the McClellan Oscillator came back from a deep minus 100 to -13;  AAII Bulls are only 22% while the Bears are over 55%.

Finally, the Rydex Nova/Ursa  ratio dropped 30 basis points from a Bearish 0.81 to .52

MktSentiment Last Week Prev. Week 5 Year HI 5 Year LOW
DJIA: 10023 9712 14093 6626
Nasdaq: 2112 2045 2126 1114
S&P 500: 1069 1036 1561 683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 67 66 96-10/08 46-1/03
VIX: 24.2 30.7 90 8.8
McClellan Osc: -13 -100 108 -100
McClellan Sum: 363 593 1568 -1514
Newsletter Surveys
Investors Intel.
Bull:
48.3 48.3 63 22.21
Bear:
24.7 22.5 54.4 16
AAII
Bull:
22.2 33.7 n/a n/a
Bear:
55.6 42.3 n/a n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds: 0.52 0.81 2.2 0.56
Baltic Dry Index: 3393 3013 11700 663
Bullish %:
73 74 88 2
Insider Corporate Sellers: 14:1 24:1 108:1 2.4:1
VIX Volatility: -65 -50 12 -70
VIX 1-month Future: -59 -45 2 -59
VIX 5-month Future: -23 -20 8 -23

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, November 2, 2009

"FOLLY" BERGIERE:

This stock market has more "LEGS" than the FOX Channel!

After a wild end to October (since 70% of market Volume is now HFTs, or High Frequency Traders), we resume upwards in Nov. The McClellan Oscillator at -100 was the first clue, in the Sentiment mix. VIX upward spikes around the first of the month have been the norm since the March rally started.

Investment newsletters are mixed with the Inv. Intell. Bullish on the market, while the AAII is inverted (Bears over Bulls) and Bullish FOR the market.

Both Equity mutual fund and money market fund flows have been slightly negative recently. Longer term, the Nova/Ursa ratio of long/short is more negative FOR the market, as is CEO Insider Selling at 24:1.

See numbers in box to the left under Recent Posts -Weekly Numbers:


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Weekly Numbers:

MktSentiment
Last Week
Prev. Week
5 Year HI
5 Year LOW





DJIA:
9712
9972
14093
6626
Nasdaq:

2045
2154
2126
1114
S&P 500:

1036
1079
1561
683
CBOE Eq. put/call:
66
61
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX:

30.7
22.3
90
8.8
McClellan Osc:
-100
-49
108
-100
McClellan Sum:

593
1032
1568
-1514
Newsletter Surveys




Investors Intel.




Bull:

48.3
49.5
63
22.21
Bear:

22.5
23.1
54.4
16
AAII




Bull:
33.7
40.5
n/a
n/a
Bear:
42.3
33.8
n/a
n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:

0.81
0.63
2.2
0.56
Baltic Dry Index:
3013
3043
11700
663
Bullish %:
74
84
88
2
Insider Corporate Sellers:
24:1
22:1
108:1
2.4:1
1-YEAR %:




VIX Volatility:

-50
-70

-22.00
VIX 1-month Future:

-45
-58

-18.00
VIX 5-month Future:
-20
-22

-7






With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark