Saturday, April 24, 2010

BLACK SWAN OR TURKEY?:

In his famous book Nassim Taleb talks about the complacency a turkey feels, being well fed, even massaged, comfortable surroundings, etc. Then, on Thanksgiving Day, things change dramatically!
How nice the stock market proceeds, not a negative Advance/Decline ratio since the week of Feb.5, setting new cumulative A/Ds on my charts - New highs hitting the 900s for the first time in memory.
Meanwhile, Insider Selling, although down from the near-record 91 last week, only fell to 51:1. Money Market Funds lost another $35B but less than $1B went into domestic equities' funds. In the past y/y to March, $410B went into bond funds while only $18B went into stocks.

The Rydex Nova to Ursa (the bear) ratio broke up through the 1 level for the first time, up to 1.27; and the Bullish percent is right at record levels. 

The only question seems to be: is the correction going to be severe, or moderated as if by unseen forces?

Here are the exact numbers:


MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
DJIA:1120411018140936626
Nasdaq:2530248128051114
S&P 500:121711921561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 514296-10/0846-1/03
VIX:16.618.4908.8
McClellan Osc:20-29108-100
McClellan Sum:121812411568-1514
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InvestorsIntel.Bull:
53.351.16322.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
17.418.954.416
AAII Bull:
38.148.5n/an/a
AAII Bear:
34.329.7n/an/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:0.860.942.20.56
US Equity-1 week lagn/a                -.5B
Money Market Flows-35B-51B

ETF equity:Monthly TotalsFeb.750BJan.731B

Baltic Dry Index:3006300911700663
Bullish %:
8787882
Insider Corporate Sellers:52:191:1108:12.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, April 19, 2010

NEWS-WEAK:

One of the surest, albeit infrequent, Sentiment Indicators predicting a top in the market (at least short term) is the complacent Bullishness of a magazine cover, usually Businessweek, per Paul Macrae Montgomery. This time it was Newsweek that shouted it out. Too soon to tell, as Monday's price action seems to digest Friday's selloff from Goldman/option expiry causes.

In heuristic fashion, every analysts is calling for at least a 10% run up in the next few months - even the credible ones. Short term, however, breadth and Sentiment are calling for a respite in this Too-Strong-To Fail market.

The outstanding Indicator is the CEO Insider selling ratio, at 91:1 last week, almost at its record high of last year. This small sampling has a 100% success rate in calling for at least a brief Trading Range, if not a downturn. Bullish % is 1 point away from its high, and the Inv.Intell. Bulls broke 50, at 51.1%, with Bears remaining under 20%.

Money flew out of MMFs at a $50B rate, and Volume was high last week - although the Wednesday up thrust outgained Friday's selloff. New highs ran up to 950 (vs. 18 NLs).

Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
DJIA:1101810997140936626
Nasdaq:2481245428051114
S&P 500:119211941561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 424896-10/0846-1/03
VIX:18.416.1908.8
McClellan Osc:-293108-100
McClellan Sum:124112411568-1514
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InvestorsIntel.Bull:
51.148.96322.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
18.918.954.416
AAII Bull:
48.542.9n/an/a
AAII Bear:
29.730.4n/an/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:0.860.942.20.56
US Equity-1 week lagn/a2B
Money Market Flows-51B-18B

ETF equity:Monthly TotalsFeb.750BJan.731B

Baltic Dry Index:3009292211700663
Bullish %:
8786882
Insider Corporate Sellers:91:145:1108:12.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, April 12, 2010

WHAT'S THAT HUGE SUCKING SOUND?:

According to Barron's, Institutions started entering stock mutual funds about 8 weeks ago, early adopters to the retail, or individuals, who entered 3 weeks ago. The ICI group shows only a couple Billion $ in early March from individuals, then flat to negative since. With few alternatives to zero rates, it appears that the several Trillions are getting antsy for higher return, with bonds now a crowded trade.

Market breadth, measured by advance/declines and new highs vs. new lows, has been incredibly strong recently: another new all time high in my cumulative A/D and weekly NY h/l of 888 to 13. The past 6 weeks totals have been 4,673 new highs to 85 new lows!

Nearly every analyst has predicted much higher targets on the stock market - credible and otherwise. Most are based on Fundamental valuations - p/e ratios, projected earnings on an improving economy, idle money, etc. Technically there are some short term yellow flags waving wildly: CEO selling rose to 45:1; both the VIX and the Inv.Intell. Bears are near a multi-year low; the Bullish % -number of stocks on Buy signals, and Nova/Ursa funds ratios are near recent highs, signaling complacency. Even the CBOE equity put/call ratio is near a multi-year low. The past 3 times the AAII Bulls were this high resulted in 1 sideways range in March, and two sharp corrections at the first of this year.

There's nothing like a rainy Monday to call for a look into past research - a couple of interesting factoids are presented here:
  • Since 1913, according to IBD, there have been 23 Post election years;in 15 of them there were Bear markets, or shortly after, as in 1987, with the delay causing more severity. 2 of the 8 Bull markets were the go-go '90s which led to the current malaise.
  • More optimistically, of the 15 major rate hikes since 1928, only 4 have rendered negative results from first hike to last - 2 of which were in the 1974 period

Here are last week's numbers:

MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
DJIA:1099710927140936626
Nasdaq:2454241028051114
S&P 500:119411781561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 485196-10/0846-1/03
VIX:16.117.5908.8
McClellan Osc:3-1108-100
McClellan Sum:124112211568-1514
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InvestorsIntel.Bull:
48.948.36322.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
18.919.154.416
AAII Bull:
42.941.3n/an/a
AAII Bear:
30.427.5n/an/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:0.940.852.20.56
US Equity-1 week lagn/a-65Million
Money Market Flows-18B-30B

ETF equity:Monthly TotalsFeb.750BJan.731B

Baltic Dry Index:2922299111700663
Bullish %:
8684882
Insider Corporate Sellers:45:128:1108:12.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, April 5, 2010

HAIR OF THE DOG:

Despite having owned a bar in San Francisco for nearly 20 years, I never was convinced that the best way to cure a hangover was to imbibe more - the pain of excess still has to be felt and endured! Likewise, the government continues to artificially bail out imprudent investors, individual and commercial. For example, housing credits for people who never could have afforded homes expires at the end of this month - will it be renewed? Banks are right back to their nonbank investing, only with government money instead of investors. Autos and retail stores are again offering zero down payments. Isn't this the Japanese model all over?

The stock market proceeds suspiciously onward like a CD, as talking heads put a positive spin on every new economic number, although it does look like it is improving (with or without Stimulus). Most indicators are midrange, with a couple exceptions. The Inv. Intell. Bears broke down through 20 for the first time since the minicrash of January 22; the Nova/Ursa ratio at 0.85 is the highest since September 25 - there was a small hiccup right after, but it was in the middle of a longer rally. Breadth is incredibly strong - new highs again in my cumulative A/D; the Bullish % approaches new highs, and money flows from Money Market Funds, with a lot left in them.

Here are the weekly numbers:


MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
DJIA:1092710850140936626
Nasdaq:2410241528051114
S&P 500:117811741561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 5155496-10/0846-1/03
VIX:17.517.8908.8
McClellan Osc:-1-19108-100
McClellan Sum:122112581568-1514
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InvestorsIntel.Bull:
48.348.96322.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
19.120.554.416
AAII Bull:
41.332.4n/an/a
AAII Bear:
27.534.7n/an/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:0.850.672.20.56
US Equity-1 week lag           n/a                   -1.B
Money Market Flows-30B-4B

ETF equity:Monthly TotalsFeb.750BJan.731B

Baltic Dry Index:2991309811700663
Bullish %:
8483882
Insider Corporate Sellers:28:119:1108:12.4:1






With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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