Monday, November 25, 2013

BEN-Official

Giving thanks to Bernanke for this wild ride in the stock market - he even alerted everyone, transparently, to what he was doing; yet only now are investors tiptoeing into U.S equities. Will he be around when it is time to depart? Just like the stockbroker who defines Long Term hold as up to when he retires from his firm.

Just like Groundhog Day, new highs in the markets abound, every day. Just for comparison, listed below are the multi-year highs as well as last weeks Indicators:


Date>
11/22/2013 11/15/2013
Indices: DJIA  16064 15961
  NAZ  3991 1985

SPX  1804 1798
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 8.6/3.2 8.9/3.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.7 2.7
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  59 55
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.3 12.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1484/1718 2049/1140
Weekly Net:
-234 909
     Cumulative: 153443 153677
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 458/150 420/124
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 444/95 377/120
McClellan  Oscillator 2 13
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 325 393
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 53.6 52.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 15.5 15.5

AAII  -Bull :wed. 34.4 39.2

Bear  29.5 27.5
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 15/18 12/23
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (51K) (66k)
CEOinsider selling 60:1 36:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  84 83
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay 4.0B
MMF flows Change in $B (5.5B) (3.1B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  401B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 923/368/249
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.30% 0.31%



Date> DECADE HI LOW
Indices: DJIA  16064 6626
  NAZ  3991 1114

SPX  1804 683
WklyVolume (Bshs).  
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 3.15 1.59
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  104.11/08 42
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 90 8.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE..    
Weekly Net:
   
     Cumulative: 154367 71464
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 950 18
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l    
McClellan  Oscillator Jan.09:108 May.'12:(110)
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 1568-6/03 (1514).
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 62.9-12/04 22.2-10/08
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 54.4-10/08 15.5

AAII  -Bull :wed. (12/10)63.3  

Bear  70.3(3/09) 16.4
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k    




CEOinsider selling 235:1 .2.1
3-box rev Bullish%-  88 2
US equity -ICI Fund Flows    
MMF flows Change in $B

MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  401B
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond 925/349/257




2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.40%





With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, November 18, 2013

HOW LOW CAN YOU GO?

Sentiment Extremes this week include the number (%) of Bears in the Investors Intelligence survey (wire house reports) - a new multi-year low of 15.5%, down from 15.6% previously; meanwhile the Bulls are still above 50, at 52.6% - the AAII has backed off a bit from its extremes. Normally the AAII is the more meaningful, but they seem to be lulled into the Yellen glow.

The Bullish % rose to another recent high of 83% - of stocks on Buy signals. The VIX dropped to 12.2, still above its 8.8 many moons ago.

Here are the numbers:

Date>
11/15/2013 11/8/2013
Indices: DJIA  15961 15761
  NAZ  1985 3919

SPX  1798 1770
WklyVolume (Bshs). 8.9/3.3 9.9/3.8
NASD/NYSE  

Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.7 2.6
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  55 55
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.2 12.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2049/1140 1240/1961
Weekly Net:
909 -721
     Cumulative: 153677 152768
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 420/124 389/107
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 377/120 372/129
McClellan  Oscillator 13 -32
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 393 463
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 52.6 55.2
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 15.5 15.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. 39.2 45.5

Bear  27.5 21.8
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 12/23 10/20
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (66k) (94k)
CEOinsider selling 36:1 50:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  83 82
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay 5.4B
MMF flows Change in $B (3.1B) 4B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
Sept.
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B
Sept.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.31% 0.32%


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, November 11, 2013

THANK YE BERNANKE II

Here are last week's Sentiment numbers - still at high levels after gliding though most of the troublesome JASON semi-cycle for the stock market. Can it continue?:
More commentary at :
 http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard
along with a schedule of local investment meetups.
Also worth noting - an update on my LEAP strategy from my talk last weekend at:





Date>
11/8/2013 11/1/2013
Indices: DJIA  15761 15615
NAZ  3919 3922

SPX  1770 1761
WklyVolume (Bshs). 9.9/3.8 9.7/3.8
NASD/NYSE

Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.6 2.55
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  55 56
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.9 13.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1240/1961 1154/2032
Weekly Net:
-721 -878
     Cumulative: 152768 153489
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 389/107 477/60
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 372/129 455/103
McClellan  Oscillator -32 -13
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 463 570
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 55.2 52.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 15.6 16.5

AAII  -Bull :wed. 45.5 45

Bear  21.8 21.5
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 10/20 14/14
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (94k) (82K)
CEOinsider selling 50:1 69:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  82 82
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 4.3B WeekDelay
MMF flows Change in $B 4B 1B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  Sept. 401B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B Sept. 923/368/249
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.32% 0.32%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, November 4, 2013

THANKYE BERNANKE:



. Margin debt, currently over a record $400B, is due to speculation and low rates. Market breadth, as measure by Advance/Declines and New Highs v. Lows, is very strong now. The Bullish Per Cent, stocks on a BUY signal, is at recent record highs(see below). Money is FINALLY starting to flow into Mutual Funds, after a recent 25% market run up this year. (Legal) Insider Selling of key employees -CEOs, etc.- jumped again to 62 to 1 over Buyers.

Lastly, the Investors Intelligence Bull to Bear ratio is now more than 3 to 1, with levels at 52 and 16, respectively!! The AAII ratio is not much weaker.   
 More commentary can be found at:



Here are the numbers:
 

Date>
11/1/2013 10/25/2013
Indices: DJIA  15615 15570
  NAZ  3922 3943

SPX  1761 1759
WklyVolume (Bshs). 9.7/3.8 9.6/3.5
NASD/NYSE  
 
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.55 2.74
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  56 58
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.3 13.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1154/2032 2047/1145
Weekly Net:
-878 902
     Cumulative: 153489 154367
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 477/60 688/40
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 455/103 681/64
McClellan  Oscillator -13 46
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 570 513
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 52.6 49.5
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 16.5 18.5

AAII  -Bull :wed. 45 *49.2

Bear  21.5 **17.6
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 14/14 8/15
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (82K) (78K)
CEOinsider selling 69:1 41:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  82 81
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay 9.2B
MMF flows Change in $B 1B 54B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  401B  
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 923/368/249  
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.32% 0.31%

 

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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