Monday, May 15, 2017

HOW HIGH THE MOON

Markets continue to make new highs almost every day and week, despite all the global calamities from elections, firings, to rockets. In a recent excellent webinar by Option King Larry McMillan, he not only analyzes the VIX Indicator and its misuse, but opines that if the S&P 500 breaks above the May 9 closing high of 2401 and closes twice above that, the market should resume its uptrend. FANG stocks are also propelling the NASDAQ to new highs, although Inflation Adjusted, it is not quite the case.It broke 5000 in March of 2000. BTW - today's close of the SPX was 2402 !!!

Sentiment Indicators remain mostly the same except for Mutual fund flows out instead of in last week; The I.I. Bull/Bear ratio stayed at its extreme of over 3:1 (normally a dangerous complacent signal). It was also noted that the NYSE Advance/Decline breadth numbers are not the best to use, as 30% of NYSE Volume nowadays is in ETFs, plus closed end funds, preferred stocks, etc.

Here are the numbers:

Date   5/12/2017 5/5/2017
Indices: DJIA  20896 21006
  NAZ  6121 6100
SPX  2390 2399
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.6/4.1 9.9/4.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.34 2.25
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  61 66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 10.4 10.5
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 55.4 60.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1352/1626 1548/1535
Weekly Net: -274 13
     Cumulative: 176539 176813
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 325/92 427/137
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 393/200 429/196
McClellan  Oscillator -23 0
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 545 609
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 58.7 58.5
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.3 17.9
Wed. AAII  -Bull  32.7 38.1
Bear  30.2 29.9
US$-WSJ 99.2 98.6
3-box rev Bullish%-  71 71
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (4.3B)
MMF flows Change in $B (6.2B) 1.6B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  528B March
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.3 2.4
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.3 1.31
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.8 113.7



With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, May 8, 2017

M'AIDEZ (MAYDAY)

Today's stock markets were Underwhelmed by the victory in France of Macron over Le Pen. No surprise there, like Brexit and Trump. Although last week hit some new highs, markets are climbing out of Saucer formations moving into June - possibly the next rate hike. The 2-year Treas.rate picked up again into the 1.30s % while the 10-year hit 2.4%. No sign of a flat Yield curve, necessary for a Recession to occur - maybe 4-5 more hikes on the short end. Every decade has an "R", usually @ the zero year - so watch out below !

Sentiment Indicators were mixed - the Adv/Dec difference was a mere 13!, causing the McClellan Oscillator to end at the zero line; New Highs were strong, however. Margin Interest remains HUGE, as does the U S Debt, both of which will squirm when rates rise. Finally, the dollar hit a recent low, per Trump's wishes, which should help Gold.
See below:

Date   5/5/2017 4/28/2017
Indices: DJIA  21006 20940
  NAZ  6100 6047
SPX  2399 2384
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.9/4.4 9.4/4.8
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.25 1.96
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  66 65
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 10.5 10.8
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 60.3 59.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1548/1535 1901/1175
Weekly Net: 13 726
     Cumulative: 176813 176800
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 427/137 544/71
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 429/196 561/138
McClellan  Oscillator 0 8
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 609 620
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 58.5 54.7
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.9 17.9
Wed. AAII  -Bull  38.1 38.1
Bear  29.9 31.7
US$-WSJ 98.6 99.0
3-box rev Bullish%-  71 74
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 6.8B
MMF flows Change in $B 1.6B 15.4B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  March 537B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.4 2.3
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.31 1.27
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.7 115.2

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, May 1, 2017

GETTING HIGH AGAIN

After back to back 250 point up days on the DJIA, markets on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at new highs last week. Technically, the Momentum studies bode well for more highs to follow near term - just about everyone agrees. Not saying a Correction is not possible.
Since WWII (or before) there has never been a decade without a Recession - and if we have one in the next four years (usually @ the Zero year of the Decile cycle) it should be a doozy, with the outstanding debt. Even Margin Debt rocketed to new highs at $537B due to low rates; when they go up ....
as the numbers below show, Breadth was positive last week - new highs, Advances over Declines, and MMF $ flows (money markets) reversed from Out to In bigtime - retail investors are IN.

Date   4/28/2017 4/21/2017
Indices: DJIA  20940 20584
  NAZ  6047 5910
SPX  2384 2352
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.4/4.8 8.1/4.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.96 1.98
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  65 66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 10.8 14.6
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 59.9 50.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1901/1175 2055/1009
Weekly Net: 726 1046
     Cumulative: 176800 176074
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 544/71 295/61
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 561/138 239/144
McClellan  Oscillator 8 8
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 620 488
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 54.7 51.9
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.9 18.3
Wed. AAII  -Bull  38.1 25.7
Bear  31.7 37
US$-WSJ 99.0 99.8
3-box rev Bullish%-  74 71
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (2.7B)
MMF flows Change in $B 15.4B (16.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  537B MARCH
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.3 2.2
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.27 1.17
TIP (ETF) Inflation 115.2 114.7

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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