Monday, March 28, 2011

RUNNING OF THE BULLS:

Several Indicators last week were nearing high levels of Bullishness "ON" the market (Bearish for it): the ratio of Volume on the NYSE vs. Nasdaq was near its speculative highs; the Inv.Intell. Bulls rose above 50, vs. 22 Bears; Margin Debt is huge - above $300B last seen at a previous market top ; others - VIX, McClellan Oscillator, Bullish %, not quite extreme yet but getting there:

MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
DJIA:1222011858140936626
Nasdaq:2743264328611114
S&P 500:131312791561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 567396-10/0846-1/03
VIX:17.924.4908.8
McClellan Osc:24(26)108(123)
McClellan Sum:4263861568(1514)
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InvestorsIntel.Bull:
50.652.26322.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
22.422.354.416
AAII Bull:
37.728.5n/an/a
AAII Bear:
3540.1n/an/a
US Equity-1 week lagn/a(1.3B)  
Money Market Flows(7.8B)(10.5B)

Baltic Dry Index:1538131711700663
Bullish %:
7772892
Insider Corporate Sellers:23:155:1198:12.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, March 21, 2011

SENTIMENTAL JOURNAL:

MktSentiment is entering its 6th year of publication, concentrating on the most effective of stock market Sentiment Indicators over time. Although the author received his CMT designation (Chartered Market Technician) in 1995 on the subject of Sentiment, he has only kept a weekly record for 10 years, sometimes replacing ineffective or obsolete Indicators with new ones after sufficient testing.
He has recently compiled a record of the 5 best Indicators shown on the tsaasf.org website (for which he is the Editor and Past President). This blog is produced each Monday, as many indicators (such as market survey letters) are posted weekly. Extremes can be used as a cautionary signal, as they can denote a cessation of a trend, not necessarily a reversal.
Last week's extremes include a high CBOE equity put/call ratio of 73; a negative McClellan Oscillator (although it stayed the same as the prior week at -26, it took a violent swing down and up); the AAII (Individual Investor) Bears jumped from 32 to 40 last week, although the Investors' Intelligence Bulls remained complacent. Technically, I like to watch the 6 to8-day cycles (3,4 up, 3,4 down) as we reach the 50-day Simple Moving Average today.
Posted below are the last two weeks, multi-year highs and lows: 


MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
DJIA:1185812044140936626
Nasdaq:2643271528611114
S&P 500:127913041561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 736496-10/0846-1/03
VIX:24.420.1908.8
McClellan Osc:(26)(26)108(123)
McClellan Sum:3866691568(1514)
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InvestorsIntel.Bull:
52.252.26322.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
22.321.154.416
AAII Bull:
28.536.0n/an/a
AAII Bear:
40.132.3n/an/a
US Equity-1 week lagn/a(1.1B)  
Money Market Flows(10.5B)(1.4B)

Baltic Dry Index:1538131711700663
Bullish %:
7277892
Insider Corporate Sellers:55:162:1198:12.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, March 14, 2011

THE FAB FIVE:

As mentioned in the past few weeks, the top 5 Sentiment Indicators have been very reliable in calling for this downturn, just as they have in my recent 10-year Indicator Wrapup. They are: CBOE Equity put/call ratio being near its multi-year low; the McClellan Oscillator approaching a +50 level; the AAII Bull/Bear ratio signaling complacency; the Bullish Per Cent at all-time highs of 89; and the VIX being at a complacent low -more of a longer term danger signal.
These fab five compare closely with the levels last April 23, just before the Flash Crash of 17%.

MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
DJIA:1204412169140936626
Nasdaq:2715278428611114
S&P 500:130413211561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 645696-10/0846-1/03
VIX:20.119.1908.8
McClellan Osc:(26)(22)108(123)
McClellan Sum:6697781568(1514)
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InvestorsIntel.Bull:
52.250.66322.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
21.119.554.416
AAII Bull:
36.036.8n/an/a
AAII Bear:
32.333.2n/an/a
US Equity-1 week lagn/a(3.1B)  
Money Market Flows(1.4B).5B

Baltic Dry Index:1538131711700663
Bullish %:
7783892
Insider Corporate Sellers:62:123:1198:12.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, March 7, 2011

SAME OL', SAME OL':

Just as the market went sideways after the fall last week, so did the Indicators - almost not even worth posting. The McClellan Oscillator went negative (-22), Inv.Intell. is still complacent, and the margin debt increased on its way to $300B.

For what it's worth, the AAII is above average in investment in stocks (63%), but has the lowest % in Bonds (17%) since Aug. '09, which was a previous low in the long bond.

MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
DJIA:1216912130140936626
Nasdaq:2784278128611114
S&P 500:132113191561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 566696-10/0846-1/03
VIX:19.119.2908.8
McClellan Osc:(22)3108(123)
McClellan Sum:7787531568(1514)
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InvestorsIntel.Bull:
50.653.36322.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
19.518.954.416
AAII Bull:
36.836.6n/an/a
AAII Bear:
33.236.2n/an/a
US Equity-1 week lagn/a 1.5B
Money Market Flows.5B(5.1B)

Baltic Dry Index:1317130111700663
Bullish %:
8383892
Insider Corporate Sellers:23:194:1198:12.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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