Monday, December 26, 2011

SANTA CLAUS RALLY:

This week is traditionally the week for the Santa Claus rally and the Mother of all rallies (in his 40 years) that Tom Demark predicted (offset a couple weeks). Also notable are the technically high probability events ( recently negated by Fed intervention, etc.) are the January Effect of small cap stocks and CEF (closed-end funds), such as munis, that get sold off in December, only to rally in January - something that is observable if not actionable.
Indicators are mean reverted, except for the McClellan Oscillator near its high border of 50, and bull/bear newsletters approaching complacency - so we could have a hiccup on the way higher. With markets barely even from a year ago, and even a decade ago, you might want to check out my other blog: http://ditmcalls.blogspot.com for safer yet much more rewarding strategy, or just an alternative to zero interest rates in CDs, MMFs, etc.
Here are the Indicators for last week:

Date>
12/23/2011 12/16/2011
Indices: DJIA  12294 11866
  NAZ  2618 2555

SPX  1265 1219
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs) 3.8/7.7 5.3/9.3
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.03 1.75
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  63 80
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 20.7 24.29

Advance/Dec-NYSE 2577/587 813/2348

Weekly Net: 1990 -1535

     Cumulative: 125945 123955
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 293/146 190/168
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 111/257 87/292
McClellan  Oscillator 48 -17
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 134 81
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 48.4 45.3
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 30.5 30.5

AAII  -Bull :wed. 33.7 40.2

Bear  28.2 33.6
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 0/12. 17/19.
CEOinsider selling 10:1 19:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 1888 1889
3-box rev Bullish%-  61 58
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (4.0B)
MMF flows Change in $B 14.2B .3B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly OCT.
283B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ OCT.
615/265/174
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.29% 0.23%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset 5.06M 5.78M

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, December 19, 2011

"OFF" DEMARK:

Over the years I've heard Technical Analyst Tom Demark at TSAA meetings, Bloomberg talks (he was on their staff with his Indicator), even had dinner with him - but never quite bought into his math predictions. Two weeks ago , highly touted by Bloomberg's Adam Johnson, as being followed by Soros, SAC's Cohen, et.al., when his bullish prediction lined up with my observations, I forecasted a seasonal rally.
Tom's prediction: 1330-45 on the SPX by the 21st of Dec. did seem pretty outlandish, and now - two days away, with the SPX at 1212, it would take a Xmas miracle to get there, although a yearend rally is likely (The Santa Claus rally is actually between Xmas and New Year's).
Other than the CBOE put/call ratio at 80, no other Indicator is at an extreme, this past low-volume week:

Date>
12/16/2011 12/9/2011
Indices: DJIA  11866 12184
NAZ  2555 2646

SPX  1219 1255
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs) 5.3/9.3 4.4/8.3
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.75 1.89
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  80 77
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 24.29 26.38

Advance/Dec-NYSE 813/2348 1876/1269

Weekly Net: -1535 607

     Cumulative: 123955 125490
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 190/168 239/44
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 87/292 110/147
McClellan  Oscillator -17 16
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 81 237
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 45.3 47.4
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 30.5 29.5

AAII  -Bull :wed. 40.2 38.6

Bear  33.6 34.8
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 17/19. 11/34.
CEOinsider selling 19:1 40:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 1889 1882
3-box rev Bullish%-  58 61
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag 1 wk lag
MMF flows Change in $B .3B 25.3B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly OCT. 283B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ OCT. 615/265/174
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.23% 0.23%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset 5.78M

CommHedg


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, December 12, 2011

OVERFISHING:

Days like today (down 240 points on the DJIA) only further the idea that the sharks (HFTs, Institutional Traders, et.al) are driving the small fish out of the water -only to fight among themselves. In the matrix below we see that equity mutual fund outflows have steadily occurred since April 22 without exception, and money market inflows are again happening -after the scare about dangerous European securities being invested in.

The new format below, not as eye-appealing, but with more data, now shows NASD to NYSE Volume and ratio (NASD being speculative); also shown is the weekly Adv./Dec. on the NYSE with my cumulative totals.The only real negatives this week were the AAII bull/bear reverted to more Bulls, and CEO Insider Selling leaped to 40:1. Finally, the ETF equity funds increased 20% month over month, to $615M.

Date>
12/2/2011 12/9/2011
Indices: DJIA  12019 12184
  NAZ  2626 2646

SPX  1244 1255
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs) 5.3/9.1 4.4/8.3
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.72 1.89
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  61 77
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 27.5 26.38

Advance/Dec-NYSE 2698/479 1876/1269

Weekly Net: 2219 607

     Cumulative: 124883 125490
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 258/120 239/44
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 95/229 110/147
McClellan  Oscillator -2 16
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 176 237
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 44.2 47.4
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 30.5 29.5

AAII  -Bull :wed. 33 38.6

Bear  39.4 34.8
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k …4/12 11/34.
CEOinsider selling 11:1 40:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 1862 1882
3-box rev Bullish%-  58 61
US equity -ICI Fund Flows (6.7B) 1 wk lag
MMF flows Change in $B 6.1B 25.3B
MargDebt-mkt down 22% 1 year after top (300M) monthly OCT. 283B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ OCT. 615/265/174
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation
0.26% 0.23%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, December 5, 2011

RALLYTIME?:

Last week's pre-Xmas gift in the markets sent most Indicators into the median area; however, the AAII bull/bear ratio (one of the better Indicators) is still inverted for a seasonal upswing.
Monthly ETF flows show a big swing into Equities -
Here are the numbers:

Date>

11/25/2011 12/2/2011
Indices: DJIA 
11231 12019
  NAZ 
2441 2626

SPX 
1158 1244
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs) 3.1/6.3 5.3/9.1
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.03 1.72
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  69 61
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 34.47 27.5

Advance/Dec-NYSE na 2698/479

Weekly Net: " 2219

     Cumulative: " 124883
Weekly  NYSE hi/low " 258/120
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l " 95/229
McClellan  Oscillator -98 -2
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 296 176
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 47.4 44.2
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 32.6 30.5

AAII  -Bull :wed. 32.7 33

Bear 
38.3 39.4
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k na …4/12
CEOinsider selling
7:1 11:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 1854 1862
3-box rev Bullish%-  50 58
US equity -ICI Fund Flows (.1B) 1 wk lag
MMF flows Change in $B 1B 6.1B
MargDebt-mkt down 22% 1 year after top (300M) monthly Sept:
283B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ Sept:
615/265/174
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.28% 0.26%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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