Monday, May 26, 2014

Memorial Day - Forgetable Week

Despite record highs in the DJIA and SPX (S&P 500) last week, most Sentiment Indicators were well within their zones. Only standout (due to the above records) was the VIX, which slipped down below 12, to 11.4. Looking at short and long term charts of the VIX, this level was usually followed shortly by a sharp upturn within a few days - meaning a correction of some measure should be in the offing - possibly after the first day of the month, which is traditionally the biggest up day of any month (??).

Here are the numbers:

Date> 5/23/2014 5/16/2014
Indices: DJIA  16606 16491
  NAZ  4185 4090
SPX  1900 1877
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 8.4/3.0 9.2/3.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.8 2.71
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  63 64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.4 12.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2107/1115 1694/1505
Weekly Net: 992 189
     Cumulative: 161013 160021
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 290/78 300/91
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 111/156 122/216
McClellan  Oscillator 15 -15
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 747 770
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 57.2 55.1
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 18.3 19.4
AAII  -Bull :wed. 30.3 33.1
Bear  26.4 22.6
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 8k/8k 12k/10k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (106K) (102k)
CEOinsider selling 17::1 15:1finance
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 160:20 160:40
3-box rev Bullish%-  74 71
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (2.3B)
MMF flows Change in $B (3.9B) (3.1B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  450B MAR.
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1049/401/259 MAR.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.35% 0.36%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, May 19, 2014

MISSING ACCOMPLISHED

In observance of my weekly vacation the markets went on a wild ride last week, with the S&P 500 (SPX) going from a Friday-to-Friday close of 1878 all the way to ......1878! Most all of the Sentiment Indicators were on hold, midrange with another holiday on the horizon.
Apparently the Sell in May crowd also spread to the Buy in May crowd, both taking the week off , with this week looking the same. Even the Insider sellers slowed down their selling.

Here are the numbers:

Date> 5/16/2014 5/9/2014
Indices: DJIA  16491 16583
  NAZ  4090 4138
SPX  1877 1884
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 9.2/3.4 10.2/3.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.71 3
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  64 68
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.4 12.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1694/1505 1527/1693
Weekly Net: 189 -166
     Cumulative: 160021 159832
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 300/91 322/137
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 122/216 103/303
McClellan  Oscillator -15 16
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 770 827
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 55.1 55.8
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 19.4 19.7
AAII  -Bull :wed. 33.1 28.3
Bear  22.6 28.7
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 12k/10k 8k/15k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (102k) (110k)
CEOinsider selling 15:1finance 18:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 160:40 150:50
3-box rev Bullish%-  71 72
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (2B)
MMF flows Change in $B (3.1B) 16B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  MAR
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B MAR
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.36% 0.39%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Tuesday, May 13, 2014

BETTER LATE THAN NEVER

After a scintillating vacation into the hills (Lake Tahoe) cum snow, etc., and a Birthday celebration (76 today) I'm ready to catch up.

Not much happened last week in Sentiment although the market did its usual volatile swing. Following through with new highs the technicals are getting Bullish - I usually use 3 closes above previous highs/Resistance, so we're not ready to jump in with both feet.
Insider selling has abated, mutual fund flows show a return to MMFs (money markets), but commercial future traders in Gold still show large selling, although word is China is buying Gold.

Here are the numbers:

Date> 5/9/2014 5/2/2014
Indices: DJIA  16583 16512
  NAZ  4138 4123
SPX  1884 1881
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 10.2/3.4 10.2/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 3 2.62
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  68 61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.9 12.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1527/1693 2168/1047
Weekly Net: -166 1121
     Cumulative: 159832 159998
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 322/137 319/99
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 103/303 136/221
McClellan  Oscillator 16 16
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 827 842
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 55.8 54.7
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 19.7 20.6
AAII  -Bull :wed. 28.3 29.8
Bear  28.7 29.4
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 8k/15k 14k/14k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (110k) (98k)
CEOinsider selling 18:1 40:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 150:50 150:25
3-box rev Bullish%-  72 69
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (4B)
MMF flows Change in $B 16B (10B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  MAR 450B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B MAR 1049/401/259
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.39% 0.43%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Saturday, May 3, 2014

Early (Vacation) Edition

Most Sentiment (and Breadth) Indicators remained placid last week as the more new highs were reached. VIX dropped into the 12 handle; in the Commitment of Traders, for the second week in a row the Large traders net volume and Small ones were exactly even - no signal there! Even the AAII Bull/Bears were tied at 29%.

Commercial gold sellers remain huge as do Insider sellers of stocks, both at t he sector level and board/officer individual numbers. Margin interest actually  dropped for the first time in months, but this is not a significant figure, due to low rates, which seem to be with us through the decade, per Levy Forecast in Barron's today.  

For more, see:  http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Here are the numbers:

Date> 5/2/2014 4/25/2014
Indices: DJIA  16512 16361
  NAZ  4123 4075
SPX  1881 1863
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 10.2/3.9 9.3/3.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.62 2.82
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  61 60
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.9 14.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2168/1047 1698/1517
Weekly Net: 1121 181
     Cumulative: 159998 158877
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 319/99 313/49
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 136/221 165/100
McClellan  Oscillator 16 -2
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 842 798
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 54.7 51.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 20.6 21.7
AAII  -Bull :wed. 29.8 34.5
Bear  29.4 26
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 14k/14k 11k/12k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (98k) (90k)
CEOinsider selling 40:1 48:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 150:25 200:35
3-box rev Bullish%-  69 68
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay 1.4B
MMF flows Change in $B (10B) 7.3B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  450B 466B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1049/401/259 1035/397/266
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.43% 0.43%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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