Saturday, August 24, 2013

The Jury Is Out

In these lazy, crazy days of August, where most of the heavy traders are MIA, and the second string cannot get access to Nasdaq stocks, Sentiment Indicators are at best, mixed. Maybe the new SEC head - Mary Jo White - can help the exchanges. As Barron's Randall Forsyth says -  who better than the gov't to monitor private information! Someone told me that if I forget my Password I should just call the NSA for it !!

My newly favored indicator, Larry McMillan's CBOE put/call ratio chart is calling for a downturn with its inverse pattern - meanwhile, the AAII Bears jumped from 28% to 43 w/w - a Bullish signal. CEO Insider Selling dropped bigtime, while MMFunds jumped up $15B, mostly from outflows of Bond funds.

Here are the numbers:

 
Date>
8/23/2013 8/16/2013
Indices: DJIA  15010 15081
  NAZ  3657 3602

SPX  1663 1655
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   6.5/.3.1 7.8/3.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.10 2.29
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  59 57
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14.0 14.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1922/1272 633/2582
Weekly Net:
650 -1949
     Cumulative: 149949 149299
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 122/647 232/544
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 208/98 277/86
McClellan  Oscillator -3 -80
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -219 41
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 43.3 47.4
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 21.6 20.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. 29 34.5

Bear  42.9 28.2
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 7/-1 9/7
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 -68 -61
CEOinsider selling 17:1 25:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  79 81
US equity -ICI Fund Flows (.8B) 1weeklag
MMF flows Change in $B 15.4B 2.3B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  JUNE 377B
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond JUNE 851/321/244
(Monthly  B$$ .)

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.38% 0.36%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark

Monday, August 19, 2013

THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND..

TILL IT BENDS AT THE END!
To borrow from Harry Domash's comments at the Money Show this past weekend - more on that later in my Examiner.com column:


 The cautionary signals recently have finally born fruit of at least a correction, with Technical (seasonal) and Fundamental (economic, political) headwinds in view. Insider selling has backed off this past week, but has been extremely high for weeks; money flows have seen huge outflows from bonds (funds, etfs, CEFs, etc.), but still not greatly into stocks.

New lows beat new highs - the Hindenburg Syndrome- as breadth weakens: the McClellan Oscillator was minus 80, a BUY signal short term. And survey Bears are increasing a bit.

Here are the numbers:



Date>
8/16/2013 8/9/2013
Indices: DJIA  15081 15425
  NAZ  3602 3660

SPX  1655 1691
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   7.8/3.4 7.9/3.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.29 2.55
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  57 60
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14.4 13.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 633/2582 1074/2109
Weekly Net:
-1949 -1035
     Cumulative: 149299 151248
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 232/544 383/327
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 277/86 452/70
McClellan  Oscillator -80 -32
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 41 301
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 47.4 51.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 20.6 18.5

AAII  -Bull :wed. 34.5 39.5

Bear  28.2 26.6
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 9/7 10/15
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 -61 -54
CEOinsider selling 25:1 84:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  81 84
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag .4B
MMF flows Change in $B 2.3B 7.6B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  377B JUNE
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond 851/321/244 JUNE
(Monthly  B$$ .)

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.36% 0.30%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark

Monday, August 12, 2013

Bad Breadth

With stock trading Volume down last week, as expected this vacation time of year, mostly absent were the Buyers, as seen in last week's steady but managed decline. With the starters off this month, the bench players are minding the stores, mostly defensively.

One recent chart I've been watching is the McMillan put/call ratio in Barron's which hit a 12-month (at least) low - a contrary signal, when it turns UP the market should decline in earnest. Sy Harding reports a large number of stocks above the 200 MA (moving average), a Sell signal.

For more commentary, please see my Examiner.com wrapup at:


Here are last week's Sentiment numbers:


Date>
8/9/2013 8/2/2013
Indices: DJIA  15425 15658
  NAZ  3660 3689

SPX  1691 1709
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   7.9/3.1 8.6/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.55 2.39
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  60 58
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.4 12.0
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1074/2109 1603/1587
Weekly Net:
-1035 16
     Cumulative: 151248 152283
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 383/327 563/194
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 452/70 535/62
McClellan  Oscillator -32 -4
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 301 480
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 51.6 48.4
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 18.5 19.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. 39.5 35.6

Bear  26.6 25
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 10/15 10/13
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 -54 -26
CEOinsider selling 84:1 72:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  84 84
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag (.9B)
MMF flows Change in $B 7.6B (9.6B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  JUNE 377B
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond JUNE 851/321/244
(Monthly  B$$ .)

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.30% 0.30%

 

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark

Monday, August 5, 2013

What Can Possibly Go #$%^&

With the Dog Days of Summer coming up, Volume in the markets have not changed much. But the prior week's level of speculation (NASD : NYSE ratio) was quite high, although backing off a bit last week. Other Indicators have also backed off, but a few remain to warn of caution:

Although A/D (advances over declines) remain strong on the NYSE, the McClellan Oscillator, which is based on that, has been dropping steadily since mid-July, even going negative last week. Other notable highs are margin interest, Bullish %, (legal) Insider Selling, and Bulls vs. Bears - at least in the Investors' Intelligence survey.

More commentary is at my Examiner.com column:   

as well as some notices of upcoming investment meetings.
 

Date>
8/2/2013 7/26/2013
Indices: DJIA  15658 15558
NAZ  3689 3613

SPX  1709 1691
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE 8.6/3.6 8.6/3.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.39 2.69
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  58 64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.0 12.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1603/1587 1424/1757
Weekly Net:
16 -333
     Cumulative: 152283 152267
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 563/194 552/170
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 535/62 608/49
McClellan  Oscillator -4 4
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 480 540
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 48.4 51.5
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 19.6 19.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. 35.6 45.1

Bear  25 22.6
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 10/13 12/9
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 -26 -25
CEOinsider selling 72:1 31:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  84 83
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag 2.7B
MMF flows Change in $B (9.6B) (9.8B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  377B JUNE
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond 851/321/244 JUNE
Assets in  Billion$$ .


2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.30% 0.32%


********************************************************************
I thought now would be  a good time to also list the multi-year highs/lows for the Indicators below:

 

Date> DECADE HI LOW
Indices: DJIA  15658 6626
  NAZ  3689 1114

SPX  1709 683
WklyVolume (Bshs).  
NASD/NYSE      
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 3.15 1.59
nasd/nyse
   
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  104.11/08 42
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 90 8.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE..    
Weekly Net:
   
     Cumulative: 154252 71464
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 950 18
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l    
McClellan  Oscillator Jan.09:108 May.'12:(110)
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 1568-6/03 (1514).
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 62.9-12/04 22.2-10/08
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 54.4-10/08 15.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. (12/10)63.3  

Bear  70.3(3/09) 16.4
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k    




CEOinsider selling 235:1 .2.1
3-box rev Bullish%-  88 2
US equity -ICI Fund Flows
 
MMF flows Change in $B

MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  384B-May'13
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond 873/349/257

 Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.40%











































235:1 .2.1
89 2


384B-May'13 J
873/349/257


0.40%


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark