Monday, December 24, 2012

UNHAPPY HOLIDAYS

As pointed out in earlier blogs, a more full explanation of the following Sentiment Indicators can be found at my Examiner.com column:


 

Date>
12/21/2012 12/14/2012
Indices: DJIA  13190 13135
  NAZ  3021 2971

SPX  1430 1413
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   10.0/4.8 8.8/3.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.08 2.67
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  62 63
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17.8 17
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2127/1040 1390/1762
Weekly Net:
1087 -372
     Cumulative: 142419 141332
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 349/75 264/85
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 219/98 168/109
McClellan  Oscillator 12 -3
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 481 360
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 46.8 45.7
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 24.5 23.4

AAII  -Bull :wed. 46.4 43.2

Bear  24.8 30.1
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k .16/25 17/5.
CEOinsider selling 34:1 37:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  71 66
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag (7.2B)
MMF flows Change in $B (8.8B) 1.5B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
318Boct.
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond 747/304/244 734/296/239
Assets in  Billion$$ . Nov. Oct.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.28% 0.25%    Best wishes for a Happy Holiday to all readers!

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Sunday, December 16, 2012

Christmas Sentiment

Here are the weekly Sentiment numbers -see the Examiner.com column for detailed explanations.





Date>
12/14/2012 12/7/2012
Indices: DJIA  13135 13155
  NAZ  2971 2978

SPX  1413 1418
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   8.8/3.3 8.5/3.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.67 2.58
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  63 65
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17 15.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1390/1762 1499/1641
Weekly Net:
-372 -142
     Cumulative: 141332 141704
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 264/85 267/64
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 168/109 151/114
McClellan  Oscillator -3 22
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 360 274
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 45.7 43.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 23.4 25.5

AAII  -Bull :wed. 43.2 42.2

Bear  30.1 34.6
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 17/5. 7/0.
CEOinsider selling 37:1 52:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  66 64
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag (7.2B)
MMF flows Change in $B 1.5B 32.3B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 

ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond

Assets in  Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.25% 0.25%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Sunday, December 9, 2012

IT'S BEEN A LONG, LONG TIME-

Year end is almost upon us, with markets unusually quiet awaiting some decision on 2013. In my Examiner.com column I mention a survey of 64 years of stocks at year's end. Mostly positive, sentiment indicators tend to the cautious downside for now.
Please see: 

for more commentary on the indicators below. The reader can "Subscribe" for regular updates.



Date>
12/7/2012 11/30/2012
Indices: DJIA  13155 13025
  NAZ  2978 3010

SPX  1418 1416
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   8.5/3.3 8.8/3.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.58 2.38
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  65 63
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 15.9 15.87
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1499/1641 1973/1193
Weekly Net:
-142 780
     Cumulative: 141704 141846
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 267/64 289/59
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 151/114 156/110
McClellan  Oscillator 22 51
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 274 148
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 43.6 39.3
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 25.5 27.7

AAII  -Bull :wed. 42.2 40.9

Bear  34.6 34.4
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 7/0. 7/(3)
CEOinsider selling 52:1 23:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  64 64
US equity -ICI Fund Flows (.5B) 1weeklag
MMF flows Change in $B 32.3B 10.1B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
318Boct.
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond
734/296/239
Assets in  Billion$$ .
Oct.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.25% 0.27%


 

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, December 3, 2012

CONVENTIONAL WISDOM

Last week's sentiment numbers are posted below - please see Examiner.com article for commentary:



 

Date>
11/30/2012 11/23/2012
Indices: DJIA  13025 13009
  NAZ  3010 2966

SPX  1416 1409
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   8.8/3.7 5.5/2.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.38 2.50
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  63 60
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 15.87 15.14
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1973/1193 2804/362
Weekly Net:
780 2442
     Cumulative: 141846 141066
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 289/59 183/77
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 156/110 72/147
McClellan  Oscillator 51 50
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 148 -62
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 39.3 37.2
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 27.7 27.7

AAII  -Bull :wed. 40.9 35.8

Bear  34.4 40.8
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 7/(3) 6/13.
CEOinsider selling 23:1 14:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  64 60
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag 1weeklag
MMF flows Change in $B 10.1B 26.6B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  318Boct.
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond 734/296/239
Assets in  Billion$$ . Oct.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.27% 0.28%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, November 26, 2012

Decade Highs and Lows:


Date> DECADE HI LOW
Indices: DJIA  14093 6626
  NAZ  2937 1114

SPX  1561 683
WklyVolume (Bshs).  
NASD/NYSE      
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 3.15 1.59
nasd/nyse    
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  104.11/08 42
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 90 8.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE..    
Weekly Net:    
     Cumulative: 143458 71464
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 950 18
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l    
McClellan  Oscillator Jan.09:108 May.'12:110
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 1568-6/03 -1514
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 62.9-12/04 22.2-10/08
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 54.4-10/08 15.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. (12/10)63.3  

Bear  70.3(3/09) 16.4
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k    
CEOinsider selling 235:1 .2.1
3-box rev Bullish%-  88 2
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 381B(7/07)  
MMF flows Change in $B

MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 

ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond


 Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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EXAMINE THIS! :

As mentioned in previous blogs, explanation and interpretation of Sentiment Indicators will be shown on my Examiner.com site each week, as well as meeting notices, DITM, etc.:
http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Here are the numbers from last week: 
 (Also shown below - decade highs and lows for each Indicators)
 
Date>
11/23/2012 11/16/2012
Indices: DJIA  13009 12588
NAZ  2966 2853

SPX  1409 1359
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE 5.5/2.2 9.4/3.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.50 2.69
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  60 77
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 15.14 16.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2804/362 671/2512
Weekly Net:
2442 -1841
     Cumulative: 141066 138624
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 183/77 133/392
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 72/147 65/361
McClellan  Oscillator 50 -54
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -62 -125
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 37.2 38.3
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 27.7 28.7

AAII  -Bull :wed. 35.8 28.8

Bear  40.8 48.8
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 6/13. 6/13.
CEOinsider selling 14:1 15:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  60 58
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag 1weeklag
MMF flows Change in $B 26.6B (2.5B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 

ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond

Assets in  Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.28% 0.25%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, November 19, 2012

RALLY TIME!:

As mentioned last week, for more explanation (text) on the Sentiment Indicators, please click on the link below (Subscribe for automatic weekly reminders and updates).




 

Date>
11/16/2012 11/9/2012
Indices: DJIA  12588 12815
  NAZ  2853 2904

SPX  1359 1379
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   9.4/3.5 8.9/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.69 2.47
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  77 73
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 16.4 18.6
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 671/2512 876/2294
Weekly Net:
-1841 -1418
     Cumulative: 138624 140465
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 133/392 275/186
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 65/361 129/233
McClellan  Oscillator -54 -44
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -125 206
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 38.3 43.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 28.7 27.7

AAII  -Bull :wed. 28.8 38.5

Bear  48.8 39.9
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 6/13. 1/18.
CEOinsider selling 15:1 36:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  58 65
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag (2.1B)
MMF flows Change in $B (2.5B) 31B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
315Bsept
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond
758/289/233
Assets in  Billion$$ .
sept.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.25% 0.27%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, November 12, 2012

SENTIMENTAL JOURNAL



 In the future, to avoid duplication of efforts and save time, the Market Sentiment blog: 
will be produced in a weekly Examiner column.


This blog, written for a decade or more, lists and analyzes Sentiment Indicators that have proved most effective in predicting market direction, based on human behavior. Although the Examiner is more friendly to prose commentary, the table will still be posted at the above link, due to production capability. A more comprehensive explanation of the numbers in the matrix will be possible.




Date>
11/9/2012 11/2/2012
Indices: DJIA  12815 13093
NAZ  2904 2982

SPX  1379 1414
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE 8.9/3.6 5.5/2.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.47 2.29*
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  73 68
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 18.6 17.6
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 876/2294 1919/1222
Weekly Net:
-1418 697
     Cumulative: 140465 141883
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 275/186 318/87
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 129/233 169/138
McClellan  Oscillator -44 -19
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 206 339
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 43.6 41.5
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 27.7 27.7

AAII  -Bull :wed. 38.5 35.7

Bear  39.9 23.3
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 1/18. 1/24.
CEOinsider selling 36:1 13:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  65 70
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag 1weeklag
MMF flows Change in $B 31B (22.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  315Bsept 287B
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond 758/289/233 715/270/230
Assets in  Billion$$ . sept. week
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.27% 0.29%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, November 5, 2012

WHIPSAW WEEK:

In a classic whipsaw last week, due to the storm closures, the markets experienced a Candlestick Doji on Hallowe'en, followed by huge back to back days going nowhere. As investors and voters wait on tenterhooks for the election results ( hopefully sometime Tuesday night despite east coast problems), markets remain sideways.
It is obviously hard to tell what markets will do based on the results - an Obama victory would keep much of the Fiscal Cliff alive - PPACA, benefits, (Debt), etc., while a Romney victory would see the Bernanke put expire worthless, ending the sugar high equities markets.

 Because of the two-day hiatus Volume was low, but still a speculative 2.29:1 ratio of NASD to NYSE; the  CBOE equity put/call ratio lessened a bit, but still high (Bullish). Breadth ( Advance to Declines) swung mightily from negative to positive, as did NASD new highs/lows. Newsletter surveys came out despite the storm (Tues. & Wed. results) but diverged widely, as shown below.

The McClellan Oscillator is still negative while its cumulative Summation is headed down to zero - don't expect a new Bull market until it bottoms out well below the zero line, if past is prologue.
Finally, over $22B came out of MMFunds last week.

Here are the numbers:


Date>
11/2/2012 10/26/2012
Indices: DJIA  13093 13107
  NAZ  2982 2987

SPX  1414 1411
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   5.5/2.4 9.0/3.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.29* 2.65
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  68 75
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17.6 17.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1919/1222 1151/1998
Weekly Net:
697 -847
     Cumulative: 141883 141186
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 318/87 231/113
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 169/138 117/186
McClellan  Oscillator -19 -37
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 339 381
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 41.5 41.5
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 27.7 27.7

AAII  -Bull :wed. 35.7 29.2

Bear  23.3 43.1
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 1/24. (3)/30
CEOinsider selling 13:1 55:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  70 69
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag (1.9B)
MMF flows Change in $B (22.7B) .9B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  287B AUG.:
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond 715/270/230 AUG.:
Assets in  Billion$$ . week
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.29% 0.31%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

BACK IN ACTION:

After an extended weekend caused by weather on the Eastern coast, a review of last week saw contained sideways motion between 1400 and 1420 on the S&P 500 (SPX). So far today (Hallowe'en) markets have re-opened but are anything BUT scary.
Indicators seem to be mostly Bullish into the election, with the put/call ratio up to 75 and the McClellan Oscillator minus 37 ( I like -50 for oversold). Opinion surveys, which report midweek, are diverging, with the Inv.Intell. complacent but the  AAII nervous. Bullish % actually gave a SELL signal with its 7 point drop, and Insider Selling leapt up from 12:1 to 55:1 over Buying.

Here are the numbers:

 
Date>
10/26/2012 10/19/2012
Indices: DJIA  13107 13343
  NAZ  2987 3005

SPX  1411 1433
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   9.0/3.4 9.3/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.65 2.58
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  75 68
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17.8 17.06
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1151/1998 1864/1288
Weekly Net:
-847 576
     Cumulative: 141186 142033
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 231/113 468/70
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 117/186 220/131
McClellan  Oscillator -37 -18
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 381 557
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 41.5 42.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 27.7 26.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. 29.2 28.7

Bear  43.1 44.5
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k (3)/30 .  4/24
CEOinsider selling 55:1 12:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  69 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag (1.7B)
MMF flows Change in $B .9B 5.8B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  AUG.: 287B
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond AUG.: 715/270/230
Assets in  Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.31% 0.30%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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