Monday, December 30, 2013

YEAR END SALE

In nearly 20 years of tracking stock market sentiment data since receiving my CMT (technican) designation on Sentiment, I have never seen so many extremes as last week, partly due to the end of the year reckoning - to see more comments, please click on my Examiner.com column describing these numbers below:
 http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

The most glaring, was in my new-found area of Insider Trading (legal), separating the Officers and Board members from the less informed holders of 10% of the stock, often bundled together.

 

Date>
12/27/2013 12/20/2013
Indices: DJIA  16478 16221
  NAZ  4156 4104

SPX  1841 1818
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 5.0/1.7 10.7/4.8
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.94 2.23
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  52 53
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.4 13.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2164/1028 2361/851
Weekly Net:
1136 1510
     Cumulative: 154081 152945
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 533/121 398/255
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 556/44 396/109
McClellan  Oscillator 43 28
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 233 40
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 59.6 57.1
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 14.1 14.3

AAII  -Bull :wed. 55.1 47.5

Bear  18.5 25.1
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k n/a 17/16
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000
(27K)
CEOinsider selling 224:1hug-est 106:1hug-er
3-box rev Bullish%-  82 79
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (2.7B)
MMF flows Change in $B 22.1B (34.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  1 month
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B pending
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.40% 0.39%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, December 23, 2013

Year End Sales

Year end fund flows are in, per Barron's this week:

Stock funds, despite rumors that the public is not in the markets yet, took in a ten-year record $1/4T; Bonds took in $100B at the first of the year, then took it back out, for dead even.
MMFs (money markets) had out flows for the fifth straight year, and commodities had negative flows for the first time on record.

Here are the Sentiment numbers for last week:


Date>
12/20/2013 12/13/2013
Indices: DJIA  16221 15755
  NAZ  4104 4000

SPX  1818 1775
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 10.7/4.8 8.9/3.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.23 2.62
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  53 60
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.8 15.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2361/851 875/2324
Weekly Net:
1510 -1449
     Cumulative: 152945 151435
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 398/255 269/401
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 396/109 281/125
McClellan  Oscillator 28 -38
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 40 29
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 57.1 58.2
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 14.3 14.3

AAII  -Bull :wed. 47.5 41.3

Bear  25.1 25
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 17/16 13/22
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (27K) (29k)
CEOinsider selling 106:1huger 75:1huge
3-box rev Bullish%-  79 80
US equity -ICI Fund Flows
WeekDelay
MMF flows Change in $B
7.5B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 

ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.39% 0.32%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, December 16, 2013

Beware The Bear



For the second week in a row, the Advance/Decline was negative - much more than the prior week. Most extreme was the Insider Selling Volume - HUGE- and the ratio was 75 to 1 over Buyers. This is not as great an indicator, since it comingles 10% stock holders along with the Board members and Officers-  the latter being the most informed. Still...
The McClellan oscillator, near the minus 50 level, at -38, could have foretold the nice Monday rally, but no more than that.


Date>
12/13/2013 12/6/2013
Indices: DJIA  15755 16020
  NAZ  4000 4062

SPX  1775 1805
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 8.9/3.4 8.9/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.62 2.47
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  60 55
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 15.8 13.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 875/2324 1059/2133
Weekly Net:
-1449 -1074
     Cumulative: 151435 152884
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 269/401 323/259
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 281/125 386/83
McClellan  Oscillator -38 -18
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 29 213
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 58.2 57.1
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 14.3 14.3

AAII  -Bull :wed. 41.3 42.6

Bear  25 27.5
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 13/22 6/25
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (29k) (22k)
CEOinsider selling 75:1huge 29:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  80 83
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (1.0B)
MMF flows Change in $B 7.5B 24.2B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 

ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.32% 0.30%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, December 9, 2013

FESTIVUS WEEK

Holiday parties are starting this week, with the TSAA annual Alfred's meetup, with Garrett Jones et.al., holding forth. Also South Bay traders can party at the TOPS (Trading Options for ProfitS) in Sunnyvale Saturday - more info at:
 http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard
as well as Sentiment commentary .

 Last week's 1% correction !! up until Friday, where it retraced it back up, did result in negative A/D (advance/decline) breadth for the week, a rara avis these days. Over 1,000 declines for the week. Only the NAZ (Nasdaq) ended the week slightly higher.

Investors Intelligence (??) Bears hit a new low last week, at 14.3%, although I feel the AAII is more predictive. Although record numbers of inflows into equity funds this year have switched, the past two weeks saw big inflows into MMFs (money markets), with minor outflows from equitys (1 week delayed).

Insider selling - still high- has abated recently, as has the selling of gold "Commercials).
Here are the numbers:


Date>
12/6/2013 11/29/2013
Indices: DJIA  16020 16086
  NAZ  4062 4059

SPX  1805 1805
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 8.9/3.6 5.9/2.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.47 2.36
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  55 54
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.8 13.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1059/2133 1844/1329
Weekly Net:
-1074 515
     Cumulative: 152884 153958
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 323/259 424/126
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 386/83 541/67
McClellan  Oscillator -18 13
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 213 344
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 57.1 55.7
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 14.3 14.4

AAII  -Bull :wed. 42.6 47.3

Bear  27.5 28.3
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 6/25 n/a
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (22k) n/a
CEOinsider selling 29:1 56:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  83 83
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (1.3B)
MMF flows Change in $B 24.2B 15.1B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
412B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B
972/392/248
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.30% 0.29%

  

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, December 2, 2013

Ho, Ho, Ho- HUM


Here are the Sentiment Indicators for last week's Holiday-shortened week, along with commentary at:


  To receive this FREE weekly Examiner.com column, just click on SUBSCRIBE, with apologies for more Popups than Orville Redenbacher!
 Upcoming events ;
also reminiscing for the good old days of reportage in the 20thC, commentary on Insider Trading statistics, and a scathing review of MSM -MainStreamMedia- by one of its own.

Last week's numbers -



Date>
11/29/2013 11/22/2013
Indices: DJIA  16086 16064
  NAZ  4059 3991

SPX  1805 1804
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 5.9/2.5 8.6/3.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.36 2.7
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  54 59
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.7 12.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1844/1329 1484/1718
Weekly Net:
515 -234
     Cumulative: 153958 153443
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 424/126 458/150
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 541/67 444/95
McClellan  Oscillator 13 2
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 344 325
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 55.7 53.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 14.4 15.5

AAII  -Bull :wed. 47.3 34.4

Bear  28.3 29.5
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k n/a 15/18
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 n/a (51K)
CEOinsider selling 56:1 60:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  83 84
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay 1.0B
MMF flows Change in $B 15.1B (5.5B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  412B 401B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 972/392/248 923/368/249
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.29% 0.30%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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