Monday, July 29, 2013

Clouds On The Horizon




The table below shows the weekly Sentiment Indicator numbers compared to the previous week. Multi-year highs and lows can be found under: Older Posts.
 For commentary on these, please go to:
and click on BLUE title-



Date>
7/26/2013 7/19/2013
Indices: DJIA  15558 15543
  NAZ  3613 3587

SPX  1691 1692
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   8.6/3.2 8.0/3.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.69 2.35
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  64 56
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.7 12.5
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1424/1757 2029/1141
Weekly Net:
-333 888
     Cumulative: 152267 152600
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 552/170 586/61
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 608/49 688/47
McClellan  Oscillator 4 46
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 540 429
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 51.5 52.1
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 19.6 19.8

AAII  -Bull :wed. 45.1 47.7

Bear  22.6 21.3
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 12/9 12/4
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 -25
CEOinsider selling 31:1 76:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  83 81
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag 2.5B
MMF flows Change in $B (9.8B) 8.5B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  JUNE 377B
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond JUNE 851/321/244
Assets in  Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.32% 0.30%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, July 22, 2013

BLACK SWAN ON THE HORIZON?

One of the great Contrarian signals is that when everyone is looking one way, the other way happens. So many analysts and strategists are so Bullish, due to the Fed's manipulation and the U.S. being the best house in a bad neighborhood.To balance this out, here are a couple of Bearish views:

Garrett Jones, who studied technicals under Robert Farrell at Merrill Lynch, gave a talk recently at San Francisco's Bloomberg office,  predicting a Black Swan event. Based on his circa 40-year cycle work ( charts show selloffs from 1811, 1851, 1891 1930, and 1974 ). Garrett expects a large decline sometime in July - with today being the 22nd.

Since 1900, there have been no less than one and no more than two Bear markets per decade, including the last decade (2001, 2008). Four years into the current one, we have barely had more than a 15% correction - 2010 and 2011 - in the SPX. Raymond James' Jeff Saut states that although the recent breadth ( Advances vs. Declines) showed a 17% decline, the market only just corrected 7% - meaning we have more to go. Europeans Marc Faber and Felix Zulauf see 20-30% declines in U.S markets.

Most Sentiment Indicators are coming of extremes: MMF Inflows increased almost $13B last week; while Equity flows finally gained slightly, as did ETF Inflows. Bullish %, a toppy indicator, hit 81 and the Investors' Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio ran to 52%, with Bears under 20%.

Here are the numbers:


Date>
7/19/2013 7/12/2013
Indices: DJIA  15543 15464
  NAZ  3587 3600

SPX  1692 1680
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   8.0/3.4 7.9/3.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.35 2.14
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  56 61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.5 13.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2029/1141 2523/645
Weekly Net:
888 1878
     Cumulative: 152600 151712
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 586/61 551/119
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 688/47 728/42
McClellan  Oscillator 46 59
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 429 182
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 52.1 46.9
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 19.8 22.9

AAII  -Bull :wed. 47.7 48.9

Bear  21.3 18.3
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 12/4 13/3
CEOinsider selling 76:1 106:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  81 79
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag 4.5B
MMF flows Change in $B 8.5B 12.8B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 

ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond

Assets in  Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.30% 0.34%



With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, July 15, 2013

"WHAT CAN GO WRONG"? MARKET

As the U.S. markets continue to make new highs, $$s drift out of mutual funds and into MMFunds - $13B last week for the latter - 10 times the amount from the week before. The Bullish percent was quite high at 79 on the Pt. & Fig. chart (80% of stocks on a Buy signal).

Yet the AAII Bulls are near 50%, while the Bears only 18%. Breadth was strong, with the McClellan Oscillator at a dangerous 59. The NAZ new highs were 728 for the week, with new lows only 42.

For more commentary and investment meetups this week, please see:

and click on BLUE title-

Meanwhile, here are the numbers:
 

Date>
7/12/2013 7/5/2013
Indices: DJIA  15464 15135
  NAZ  3600 3479

SPX  1680 1631
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   7.9/3.7 5.4/2.5*
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.14 2.16
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  61 64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.8 14.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2523/645 1657/1513
Weekly Net:
1878 144
     Cumulative: 151712 149834
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 551/119 295/111
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 728/42 440/65
McClellan  Oscillator 59 14
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 182 -48
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 46.9 43.8
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 22.9 20.8

AAII  -Bull :wed. 48.9 42

Bear  18.3 23.8
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 13/3 12/7??
CEOinsider selling 106:1 32:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  79 70
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag (2B)
MMF flows Change in $B 12.8B 1.7B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 

ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond

Assets in  Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.34% 0.40%



With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, July 8, 2013

HOLIDAY NUMBERS


In a holiday-shortened week Volume was down, but became more speculative with the NASDAQ/NYSE ratio rising above 2.0.



The table below shows the weekly Sentiment Indicator numbers compared to the previous week. Multi-year highs and lows can be found under: Older Posts.
 For commentary on these, please go to:
and click on BLUE title-
If you have received this email by mistake or wish to be removed, please notify
brentleonard59@gmail.com


Date>
7/5/2013 6/28/2013
Indices: DJIA  15135 14909
  NAZ  3479 3403

SPX  1631 1606
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   5.4/2.5* 9.4/5.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.16 1.88
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  64 66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14.9 16.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1657/1513 2308/875
Weekly Net:
144 1433
     Cumulative: 149834 149690
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 295/111 168/681
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 440/65 271/175
McClellan  Oscillator 14 19
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -48 -133
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 43.8 41.7
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 20.8 25

AAII  -Bull :wed. 42 30.3

Bear  23.8 35.2
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 12/7?? 12/7
CEOinsider selling 32:1 7:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  70 69
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag (1B)
MMF flows Change in $B 1.7B 7.6B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
377B
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond
873/349/257
Assets in  Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.40% 0.36%



With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, July 1, 2013

BULL OR BEAR?

Markets finally ended the week on a positive note - Sentiment extremes included an Insider Selling drop; reversal of the advance/declines week over week, a reversal to the Bullish side from the AAII Bull/Bear survey.



The table below shows the weekly Sentiment Indicator numbers compared to the previous week. Multi-year highs and lows can be found under: Older Posts.
 For commentary on these, please go to:
 





 The reader can SUBSCRIBE to this column (above) for regular weekly updates and click on BLUE title

Date>
6/28/2013 6/21/2013
Indices: DJIA  14909 14659
  NAZ  3403 3320

SPX  1606 1573
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   9.4/5.0 9.6/5.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.88 1.84
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  66 71
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 16.9 18.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2308/875 567/2624
Weekly Net:
1433 -2057
     Cumulative: 149690 148257
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 168/681 280/465
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 271/175 310/133
McClellan  Oscillator 19 -94
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -133 -107
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 41.7 46.8
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 25 21.9

AAII  -Bull :wed. 30.3 37.5

Bear  35.2 30
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 12/7
CEOinsider selling 7:1 24:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  69 69
US equity -ICI Fund Flows (.5B) 1weeklag
MMF flows Change in $B 7.6B (25B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  377B
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond 873/349/257
Assets in  Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.36% 0.38%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


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