Monday, November 28, 2016

BLACK FRIDAY MATTERS

Making America Great again - record sales from retail stores last week, especially electronics (gamers?). The downside to technology cutting costs (and employment) from factories to farms, is (just like outsourced workers) that they do not CONSUME !! If we bring back jobs to U S, some things may cost more, but workers will be spending $$ that they earn here.
Another record set last week - back-to-back new highs in all four major stock markets - something that has not happened since....December 31, 1999 " A Year That Will Go Down..."
Another sodden fact: from Jason Trennert on Wealthtrack - 50% of the national Debt, which is now HUGE, will rollover within three years, just as rates are starting to rise!!
There has never been a year after a two-term President that a Recession has NOT occurred.

Sentiment Indicators are all Bullish, but getting extended - Breadth and Sentiment.
The Trend is your Friend Until it Bends at the End!!

Here are the Sentiment numbers:

Date   11/25/2016 11/18/2016
Indices: DJIA  19152nh 18868
  NAZ  5398 5321
SPX  2213 2181
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 6.0/3.0* 10.4/4.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2 2.12
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  60 60
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.3 12.9
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 64% 58%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2454/662 1982/1149
Weekly Net: 1792 833
     Cumulative: 170972 169180
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 451/69 450/355
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 628/84 680/135
McClellan  Oscillator 59 22
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 34 -182
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 55.9 51
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 21.6 23.5
Wed. AAII  -Bull  49.9 46.7
Bear  22.1 26.6
US$-WSJ 101.5 101.3
3-box rev Bullish%-  63 61
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 23.2B
MMF flows Change in $B 18.8B 3.3B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  501B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.36% 2.36%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.12% 1.07%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.1 112.2

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, November 21, 2016

1980 (Reagan) LIKE 2017 (Trump)?

Not exactly, says Barron's
Market Value (CAP) to GDP: 40%    196%
Bond Yields 14%   2%
Debt to GDP  135%    251%
Protectionism: Tear Down that Wall   Build a Wall

With Bond yields jumping (at least short term) $$ are coming out of Bond Funds into stocks. Sentiment Indicators regression into quietude - VIX, newsletters, stocks on BUY signals. and Breadth back positive during the rally,
Here are the numbers:
Date   11/18/2016 11/11/2016
Indices: DJIA  18868 18847
  NAZ  5321 5237
SPX  2181 2164
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 10.4/4.9 11.6/5.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.12 1.97
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  60 61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.9 14.2
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 58% 39%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1982/1149 1781/1355
Weekly Net: 833 426
     Cumulative: 169180 168347
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 450/355 394/331
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 680/135 530/271
McClellan  Oscillator 22 4
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -182 -299
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 51 Nov.8-42.9
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 23.5 25.7
Wed. AAII  -Bull  46.7 Nov.9-38
Bear  26.6 29.3
US$-WSJ 101.3 99
3-box rev Bullish%-  61 57
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (6.3B)
MMF flows Change in $B 3.3B 5.9B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.36% 2.15%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.07% 0.92%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 112.2 114.3



With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, November 14, 2016

BACK IN THE BLACK

Markets hit the ground running after election - (both ways), and Sentiment Indicators also jumped. Volume hit 11.6B on the Naz (Nasdaq), 5.9B on the NY; New Highs/Lows went positive again, and Treasury yields jumped up.
Also Bullish was a lowering of put/call ratio, TIP (Inflation ETF), and  VIX (Volatility).
Newsletters come out early in the week, so were not  a factor of the Election.
Here are the numbers:


Date 11/11/2016 11/4/2016
Indices: DJIA  18847 17888
NAZ  5237 5046
SPX  2164 2085
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 11.6/5.9 9.7/4.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.97 1.98
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  61 80
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14.2 22.5
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 39% 36%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1781/1355 726/2403
Weekly Net: 426 -1677
     Cumulative: 168347 167921
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 394/331 96/191
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 530/271 134/415
McClellan  Oscillator 4 -60
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -299 -277
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull Nov.8-42.9 41.7
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 25.7 24.3
Wed. AAII  -Bull  Nov.9-38 23
Bear  29.3 34.3
US$-WSJ 99 96.9
3-box rev Bullish%-  57 50
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (5.9B)
MMF flows Change in $B 5.9B 26.2B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.15% 1.78%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.92% 0.79%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114.3 115.9

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, November 7, 2016

HILLARALLY (Nov.7, 2016):

Despite the FBI fakeout (against all previous custom in the last 60 days before election) which caused the worst time decline in stocks - 9 days - since 1980, today's super rally assumes that Hillary will win the office tomorrow ( when incumbents remain, stocks rise).
The rally was not a surprise to a couple Sentiment Indicators: the CBOE put/call ratio hit 80 (first time in awhile), and the McClellan Oscillator hit minus 60 (below my -50 Buy signal). Bonds also spiked up.Strictly short term, however.
To balance out the Bear side, the Delta MSI Index ( stocks on buy signals, like Bullish%) at 36%, is in Bear area, as the B% dropped to 50. Margin Interest is near a record, due to low rates; finally, for the first time since Feb.'s selloff, the NYSE New Highs to Lows turned Negative as with the A/D line, and Volume was heavy for the ugly week.
Here are the numbers:

Date

11/4/2016
10/28/2016
Indices:
DJIA
17888
18161

NAZ
5046
5190

SPX
2085
2126
WklyVolume (Bshs).
naz/ny….
9.7/4.9
8.6/4.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish
1.98
1.91
Sentiment:
put/call-CBOE
80
66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8
22.5
16.2
DeltaMSI-50%
MAC crossover
36%
45%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..
726/2403
887/2252
Weekly Net:

-1677
-1365
     Cumulative:
167921
169598
Weekly
NYSE hi/low…
96/191
226/128
New Hi's/Low's
Nasdaq h/l
134/415
239/257
McClellan
Oscillator
-60
-45
McClellanSum
.+750/-1000
-277
26
Newsletter
Inv.Intel -Bull
41.7
47.1
Surveys-Tues
Bear:-5yrs
24.3
23.1
Wed.
AAII  -Bull
23
24.8

Bear
34.3
34.1
US$-WSJ

96.9
98.3
3-box rev
Bullish%-
50
66
US equity -ICI
Fund Flows
WeekLate
WeekLate
MMF flows
Change in $B
26.2B
16.1B
MargDebt- top (300M)
monthly

501B
10-yr Tsy yield
hi= stock buying
1.78%
1.85%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation
0.79%
0.86%
TIP (ETF)
Inflation
115.9
116



With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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