Monday, March 27, 2017

WEAK WEEK

Another weak of falling from the record close of 21,000 DJIA (30); breadth also fell - Adv/Decl and New hi's. Rising Indicators included CBOE put/call ratio, Inv.Intell. Bulls and MMF flows (into money markets bigtime).
Danger signals are margin interest and the above I.I. Bulls to Bears. Inflation via TIPS seem to be picking up as well.
Here are last week's ##s:

Date   3/24/2017 3/17/2017
Indices: DJIA  20596 20914
  NAZ  5828 5901
SPX  2343 2378
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.2/4.3 10.0/5.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.14 1.82
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  71 66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13 11.3
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 53 53
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1186/1923 2243/868
Weekly Net: -737 1375
     Cumulative: 173883 174620
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 218/115 305/139
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 300/172 372/160
McClellan  Oscillator -9 2
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 222 320
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 56.7 53.4
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.3 17.5
Wed. AAII  -Bull  35.3 31.2
Bear  30.5 38.7
US$-WSJ 99.8 100.3
3-box rev Bullish%-  75 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 9.0B
MMF flows Change in $B (23.3B) (11.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  513Bnh Jan.
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.4 2.5
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.25 1.33
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114.4 113.7

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, March 20, 2017

Wearin' Of The Green

Stocks were basically green (UP), at least for the start of last week, only to sustain a slight hangover into the weekend.  Breadth did a major turnaround, from negative to positive; the McClellan Oscillator jumped from minus 61 to plus two. Still worrisome are the Bulls to Bears ( Inv. Intell.) and record margin interest, which could cost more as rates rise. Contrary to conventional wisdom, stocks to not fall as interest rates rise, at least at first - when they normalize, bond rates become competitive, especially when they overshoot, as they are wont to do.
Here are the numbers:

Date 3/17/2017 3/10/2017
Indices: DJIA  20914 20902
NAZ  5901 5861
SPX  2378 2372
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 10.0/5.5 9.2/4.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.82 2.19
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  66 62
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.3 11.7
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 53 58.5
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2243/868 678/2426
Weekly Net: 1375 -1748
     Cumulative: 174620 173245
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 305/139 162/169
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 372/160 236/166
McClellan  Oscillator 2 -61
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 320 440
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 53.4 57.7
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.5 17.3
Wed. AAII  -Bull  31.2 30
Bear  38.7 46.5
US$-WSJ 100.3 101.4
3-box rev Bullish%-  76 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 4.3B
MMF flows Change in $B (11.7B) 10.1B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  Jan. 513Bnh
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.5 2.6
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.33 1.35
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.7 113

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, March 13, 2017

CON-GRESS or PRO-GRESS?

In these divisive times, not only is the country divided as to opinions, but so is Congress. Winston Churchill once said Democracy is the worst form of government - except for all the others.
Looking up the word "Congress", it comes from the Latin congressus, or congredi, with meanings including coming together and coitus (OMG).

Previous columns have mentioned Hegel's use of Dialectic - where Thesis meets Antithesis to form Synthesis, taking the best ideas from both. Perhaps we should rename Congress: COMITY.

Last week saw the stock market pause on its 8th year ann'y after  the Huge Trump rally. Most Indicators stayed the same direction, only worse. Breadth was bad, as Advances fell behind Declines and New Lows rose on the NYSE and Nas. My fave Indicator failed - the McClellan Oscillator falling below -50 (usually a BUY signal on Monday.

Danger signals remain: Large (record) Margin Interest, I.I. Bulls 3:1 over Bears, and Insider Selling is getting attention. A rare INFLOW to MMFs, most since last Dec. Safe money looks to the 2-year Treas, now 1.37%!
Here are the numbers:
Date 3/10/2017 3/3/2017
Indices: DJIA  20902 21005
NAZ  5861 5870
SPX  2372 2383
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.2/4.2 10.2/4.8
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.19 2.13
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  62 61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.7 10.9
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 58.5 66.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 678/2426 1438/1652
Weekly Net: -1748 -214
     Cumulative: 173245 174993
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 162/169 474/75
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 236/166 490/132
McClellan  Oscillator -61 -22
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 440 768
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 57.7 4:1.63.1
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.3 16.5
Wed. AAII  -Bull  30 37.9
Bear  46.5 35.4
US$-WSJ 101.4 101.3
3-box rev Bullish%-  76              79nh
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 5.8B
MMF flows Change in $B 10.1B (2B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  513Bnh
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.6 2.5
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.35 1.3
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113 114.1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, March 6, 2017

Oh, SNAP

In my day we used a different S*** word; investors in Snapchat may switch to the new one, if Barron's is correct and the stock gets cut in half. Looking at today's market - all my positions are in a Sea of Red (after a nice runup). Hopefully it is just Pause that Refreshes!
Barron's also notes that it is the Individual that is driving the market now (not a good sign), rather than Institutions. Bulls at II (Investors' Intelligence) have risen to a 4 to 1 ratio over Bears (see below), not seen since 1987- a year that will go down.....
 Prominent in last week's Sentiment/Breadth data was the rise (monthly) in Margin Interest to new highs, at 513B. As reported earlier, if/when a crash comes, higher rates will cost more to borrow as panickers and AI machines could cause a cascade of Selling, like 1987..
That said, Breadth and momentum still seems strong on Trump's promises.
Here are the numbers:

Date   3/3/2017 2/24/2017
Indices: DJIA  21005 20821
  NAZ  5870 5845
SPX  2383 2367
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 10.2/4.8 7.3/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.13 2.03
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  61 64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 10.9 11.5
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 66.7 71.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1438/1652 1763/1334
Weekly Net: -214 429
     Cumulative: 174993 175207
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 474/75 449/41
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 490/132 496/95
McClellan  Oscillator -22 2
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 768 812
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 4:1.63.1 61.2
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 16.5 17.5
Wed. AAII  -Bull  37.9 38.5
Bear  35.4 32.1
US$-WSJ 101.3 101.1
3-box rev Bullish%-  79nh 77nh
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 3.4B
MMF flows Change in $B (2B) 5.1B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  513Bnh 490B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.5 2.3
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.3 1.15
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114.1 114.9

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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