Monday, September 26, 2016

WHO IS THE MASTER DEBATER?

As tonight's debate competes with the NFL's Saints/Falcons game, record numbers will be watching the former - 100M estimated. Barron's opines that if Trump seems to win the show, the market will actually drop during October (as it does today).

Sentiment is mixed, with Breadth remaining strong - A/Ds 4 to 1, new highs 5 to 1 on the NYSE, Nasdaq hitting a new all-time high, Bears increasing (contrary), etc., BUT- MMF flows were $50B IN from the previous week, Volume was strong on down days, especially Inst. Investors'.

Flying to San Diego next week; here are last week's numbers:

Date>   9/23/2016 9/16/2016
Indices: DJIA  18261 18123
  NAZ  5305 5244
SPX  2164 2139
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.1/4.1 10.8/6.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.22 1.8
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  60 65
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.3 15.4
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 57% 62%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2500/635 1062/2048
Weekly Net: 1865 -986
     Cumulative: 172379 170514
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 233/46 99/69
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 349/101 173/135
McClellan  Oscillator 14 *12
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 571 *517
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 44.6 49
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 24.3 22.6
Wed. AAII  -Bull  24.8 27.9
Bear  38.3 35.9
US$-WSJ 95.4 95
3-box rev Bullish%-  71 71
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (3.4B)
MMF flows Change in $B 10.7B (38.5B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 1.62% 1.60%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.75% 0.77%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 116.2 115

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Saturday, September 10, 2016

EARLY EDITION II

As noted earlier, I shall be travelling the next two weeks - family bonding (and stocking). Monday should be quite exciting despite (hopefully) no 9/11 tragedies - after Friday's meltdown. Still, Sentiment Indicators, through bloody Friday, were mostly echoing Augusts ennui. A/D (advances/declines) were obviously ugly, but the new highs - NY and Nasd - still Yuge..

Volume about the same as previous, despite the Monday off. The Bullish % (stocks on a Buy signal) and its new cousin -  Delta SMI - remain high, but no weakness in either. And the McClellan Oscillator, near the minus 50 level (usually my buy signal for Monday) would indicate a reversal of Friday (thanks Fed); or maybe NOT. Fedmeet is the 20th on, and Fiscal year end a couple weeks later - budget????

Here are the numbers:
Date>   9/9/2016 9/2/2016
Indices: DJIA  18085 18492
  NAZ  5125 5249
SPX  2127 2179
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 7.6/3.6 7.7/4.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.11 1.88
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  63 65
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17.5 12
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 70% 70%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 631/2499 2086/1028
Weekly Net: -1868 1058
     Cumulative: 171500 173368
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 456/30 404/34
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 400/75 362/75
McClellan  Oscillator -47 -1
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 758 788
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 52.5 55.9
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 22.8 20.6
Wed. AAII  -Bull  29.8 28.6
Bear  28.5 31.5
US$-WSJ 95.3 95.9
3-box rev Bullish%-  74 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (.1B(
MMF flows Change in $B (29B) (10.5B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  475B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 1.67% 1.60%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.78% 0.79%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 115.1 115.5


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, September 5, 2016

LABOR DAY

Labor Day - the day no one works ! As Art Hoppe  said in the S F Chronicle 50 years ago, a day invented by unions to make sure people work less, get paid more. It seems to be "working", as the number of people in the workforce is at a decades low, in spite of the gov't increasing at all levels - the S F gov't staff is 30,000, or 1 for every 300 residents.

Despite the many fears for the stock market success - Election, calendar weakness (Sept.& Oct.), Brexit, etc.- some things are positive. The Barron's Option column reports very low Volatility in options ( a sign of complacency); fund flows in Bear funds have sold, making for more cash available to buy, while Bull funds are flat. Wall of Worry: EVERYONE who is anyone is Bearish for at least a Correction: Jim Grant, Bill Gross, Icahn, Soros, Jim Rogers, S. Pomboy e.g.

Despite the second longest Flat market since '09, the fear of a rate hike has diminished short term. But this is the first Bull driven, not by earnings, but Fed easing, of the 5 in 40 years. NIRP ??

Breadth remains strong (New Highs), but Volume weak; bigtime $$ left MMFs to MUF (mutual);
 monthly Margin debt increased, almost to all time highs - from April '15.

I'll be vacationing (zigging while the masses have zagged already) for the next few weeks.

Here are the Sentiment numbers:
Date>   9/2/2016 8/26/2016
Indices: DJIA  18492 18395
  NAZ  5249 5218
SPX  2179 2169
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 7.7/4.1 7.9/3.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.88 2.14
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  65 67
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12 13.7
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 70% 73%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2086/1028 1413/1707
Weekly Net: 1058 -294
     Cumulative: 173368 172310
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 404/34 409/29
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 362/75 364/75
McClellan  Oscillator -1 -35
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 788 878
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 55.9 56.7
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 20.6 20.2
Wed. AAII  -Bull  28.6 29.4
Bear  31.5 29.6
US$-WSJ 95.9 94.7
3-box rev Bullish%-  76 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (4.5B)
MMF flows Change in $B (10.5B) 24.6
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  475B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 1.60% 1.63%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.79% 0.85%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 115.5 116.5



With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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