Monday, April 29, 2013

GETTING HIGH



The table below shows the weekly Sentiment Indicator numbers compared to the previous week. Multi-year highs and lows can be found under: Older Posts.
 For commentary on these, please go to:
and click on BLUE title-

Although the S&P 500 is making an all-time high today, breaching the recent weekly one of 1588 and reaching for 1600, there are a couple cautionary Sentiment signals out there for the intermediate term:

* The latest monthly reading of Margin Interest is $1B away from its all-time high in July of '07 at $380B.
 
* Although Charles Biderman of TrimTabs stated the largest inflows of mutual fund $$ in Q! since 2004, the ETF flows (also monthly) dropped precipitously from Feb. to Mar., in equity, int'l and bonds: from 13% to 18% and 18% respectively. 

Survey sentiment is mixed with broker newsletters (I.I.) showing below 20% Bears, but the AAII showing just under 40%, down from two weeks near 50% - they hit 70% in March of '09, the start of the current Bull phase.

Here are the numbers:


Date>
4/26/2013 4/19/2013
Indices: DJIA  14712 14547
NAZ  3279 3206

SPX  1582 1555
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE 8.6/3.4 8.6/4.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.53 2.00
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  63 76
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.6 15.0
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2375/783 920/2258
Weekly Net:
1592 -1338
     Cumulative: 150810 149218
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 570/75 293/146
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 330/105 163/158
McClellan  Oscillator 18 -15
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 724 629
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 44.3 47.4
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 19.6 20.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. 28.3 26.8

Bear  38.8 48.2
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 4/13 1/21
CEOinsider selling 19:1 14:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  77 75
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag 1.7B
MMF flows Change in $B (1.9B) (27.5B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  380B
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond 704/286/202
Assets in  Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.22% 0.23%



With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, April 22, 2013

LIKE A SHIP WITHOUT A SAIL-

On a sea without a trail - Neil Diamond.

As Ben Bernanke follows his unprecedented zero policy, markets have finally corrected a bit from the sugar highs of the past 4 years of QEs.

More commentary is at: www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Here are the numbers from last week:

 
Date>
4/19/2013 4/12/2013
Indices: DJIA  14547 14865
  NAZ  3206 3294

SPX  1555 1588
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   8.6/4.3 7.8/3.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.00 2.36
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  76 61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 15.0 12.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 920/2258 2310/870
Weekly Net:
-1338 1440
     Cumulative: 149218 150556
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 293/146 604/62
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 163/158 320/69
McClellan  Oscillator -15 2
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 629 766
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 47.4 50.5
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 20.6 20.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. 26.8 19.3

Bear  48.2 54.5
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 1/21 7/9
CEOinsider selling 14:1 77:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  75 82
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag 1weeklag
MMF flows Change in $B (27.5B) (8.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 

ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond

Assets in  Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.23% 0.23%

.

*********************************************************************
For those readers who follow technical analysis, two giants in the field (including my former boss, Harvey Baraban) will be holding forth at the Embarcadero home of Bloomberg, in early May.
UPCOMING TSAA EVENT: "Harvey Baraban: "KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID! Matching the Market to a Set of Indicators" and Brett Villaume: "Observations on Technical Analysis; A Chartist's Perspective of The Bank Sector"
Join us May 11th from 9AM-12PM at Bloomberg's Office, Pier 3, Unit #101.



*********************************************************************
For those readers who follow technical analysis, two giants in the field (including my former boss, Harvey Baraban) will be holding forth at the Embarcadero home of Bloomberg, in early May.
UPCOMING TSAA EVENT: "Harvey Baraban: "KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID! Matching the Market to a Set of Indicators" and Brett Villaume: "Observations on Technical Analysis; A Chartist's Perspective of The Bank Sector"
Join us May 11th from 9AM-12PM at Bloomberg's Office, Pier 3, Unit #101.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, April 15, 2013

BROKEN CLOCK

The Sentiment Indicators finally rang true despite the sloshing of money by the Fed guaranteeing a rising market (QE4-ever)
Despite a vast majority of analyst Bullishness, an exceptional AAII early week ratio, and MMF withdrawals reversing prior week Inflows, the market is finally correcting. Along with gold!

Here are the numbers:


Date>
4/12/2013 4/5/2013
Indices: DJIA  14865 14565
  NAZ  3294 3203

SPX  1588 1553
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   7.8/3.3 7.9/3.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.36 2.32
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  61 71
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.1 13.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2310/870 1080/2091
Weekly Net:
1440 -1011
     Cumulative: 150556 149116
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 604/62 492/91
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 320/69 299/102
McClellan  Oscillator 2 -38
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 766 760
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 50.5 52
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 20.6 19.4

AAII  -Bull :wed. 19.3 35.5

Bear  54.5 28.2
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 7/9 5/12
CEOinsider selling 77:1 107:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  82 80
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag (1.8B)
MMF flows Change in $B (8.9B) 3.7B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 

ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond

Assets in  Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.23% 0.23%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, April 8, 2013

MULTI-YEAR HIGHS AND LOWS

For Indicator comparisons, here are the multi-year highs and lows of various Sentiment Indicators that have proven most effective:


Date> DECADE HI LOW
Indices: DJIA  14578 6626
  NAZ  3267 1114

SPX  1569 683
WklyVolume (Bshs).  
NASD/NYSE      
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 3.15 1.59
nasd/nyse
   
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  104.11/08 42
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 90 8.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE..    
Weekly Net:
   
     Cumulative: 150127 71464
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 950 18
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l    
McClellan  Oscillator Jan.09:108 May.'12:(110)
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 1568-6/03 (1514).
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 62.9-12/04 22.2-10/08
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 54.4-10/08 15.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. (12/10)63.3  

Bear  70.3(3/09) 16.4
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k    
CEOinsider selling 235:1 .2.1
3-box rev Bullish%-  88 2
US equity -ICI Fund Flows
 
MMF flows Change in $B

MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  381B(7/07)
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond


 Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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SENTIMENTAL JOURNAL



The table below shows the weekly Sentiment Indicator numbers compared to the previous week. Multi-year highs and lows can be found under: Older Posts.
 For commentary on these, please go to:

 

Date>
4/5/2013 3/29/2013
Indices: DJIA  14565 14578
  NAZ  3203 3267

SPX  1553 1569
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   7.9/3.4 6.1/2.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.32 2.26
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  71 66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.9 12.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1080/2091 1883/1254
Weekly Net:
-1011 629
     Cumulative: 149116 150127
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 492/91 622/51
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 299/102 376/66
McClellan  Oscillator -38 4
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 760 931
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 52 49.5
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 19.4 19.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. 35.5 38.4

Bear  28.2 28.7
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 5/12 4/12
CEOinsider selling 107:1 28:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  80 83
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag .9B
MMF flows Change in $B 3.7B 3.7B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
FEB.
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond
FEB.
Assets in  Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.23% 0.25%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, April 1, 2013

FOOL ME ONCE

Tick, tick, tick - as noted below in the matrix, Margin Interest for February has increased to near-record levels ( 381B was the amount in July 2007). In that instance, it was 3 months before the crash of '07. History may not repeat itself exactly, but it Rhymes.

The S&P 500 finally hit a new NOMINAL high the day before Good Friday (TIGF!), and today sees the usual Monday selloff for 2013, although historically the first day of the month is usually strong.
Here are the numbers- more commentary on them can be found at:



Each week this column attempts to highlight Contrary Behavior Indicators (as opposed to making market predictions) by concentrating various comments and data in one place. The reader can SUBSCRIBE to this column (above) for regular weekly updates. It also tries to publicize various San Francisco Bay Area investment meetings for the week ahead.

 

Date>
3/29/2013 3/22/2013
Indices: DJIA  14578 14512
  NAZ  3267 3245

SPX  1569 1556
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   6.1/2.7 8.1/3.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.26 2.38
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  66 66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.7 13.6
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1883/1254 1665/1509
Weekly Net:
629 156
     Cumulative: 150127 149498
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 622/51 579/102
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 376/66 351/50
McClellan  Oscillator 4 -7
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 931 954
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 49.5 47.4
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 19.6 18.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. 38.4 38.9

Bear  28.7 33.3
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 4/12 6/18
CEOinsider selling 28:1 58:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  83 82
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag 1.2B
MMF flows Change in $B 3.7B (26.5B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  FEB. 366B
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond FEB. 812/350/245
Assets in  Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.25% 0.26%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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