Monday, February 25, 2013

I'M EVEN, I'M LEAVIN':

One of the predictable Behavioral flaws in investing, described in an excellent presentation at the TSAA this month by Richard Lehman of U.C. Berkeley's Finance Dept., was the "getting even" trait of investors - even going back to old highs five years ago. This is resulting in the difficulty of getting through the 14,000 DJIA mark convincingly, which is illustrated in Technical Analysis by logical Support and (in this case) Resistance.

As noted in previous blogs, Caution is now being warned by several of my Sentiment Indicators: High readings by the NASD to NYSE Volume ratio (bullish complacency); lower VIX - in the low teens; Bullish percent still in the '80s; and the newsletter surveys Bulls over Bears.

More at:   


Here are the numbers: 

 

Date>
2/22/2013 2/15/2013
Indices: DJIA  14000 13981
  NAZ  3161 3192

SPX  1515 1519
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   7.4/3.0 8.9/3.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.47 2.62
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  65 60
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14.2 12.5
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1386/1767 1735/1437
Weekly Net:
-381 298
     Cumulative: 147330 147711
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 576/82 688/47
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 405/74 452/60
McClellan  Oscillator -18 -6
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 966 1048
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 48.4 52.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 22.1 21.1

AAII  -Bull :wed. 41.8 42.3

Bear  32.5 28.7
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 17/19 17/12
CEOinsider selling 58:1 43:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  81 83
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag .5B
MMF flows Change in $B (23.8B) (12.3B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  Dec. 330B
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond Dec. 764/329/243
Assets in  Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.26% 0.28%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, February 18, 2013

GOOD NEWS, BAD NEWS

Here are last week's Sentiment #s, still high on the danger list, but coming off the highs:

As usual, more commentary on:


 

Date>
2/15/2013 2/8/2013
Indices: DJIA  13981 13992
  NAZ  3192 3193

SPX  1519 1517
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   8.9/3.4 9.7/3.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.62 2.94
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  60 62
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.5 13
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1735/1437 ..1671/1467
Weekly Net:
298 204
     Cumulative: 147711 147413
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 688/47 ..580/37
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 452/60 ..395/48
McClellan  Oscillator -6 3
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 1048 1055
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 54.7
Surveys Bear:-5yrs
21.1

AAII  -Bull :wed. 42.8

Bear 
29.6
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 17/12 13/26
CEOinsider selling 43:1 72:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  83 82
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag 3.5B
MMF flows Change in $B (12.3B) (3.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  330B DEC.
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond 764/329/243 DEC.
Assets in  Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.28% 0.26%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Sunday, February 10, 2013

YEAR OF THE SNAKE!

Sentiment Indicators are reaching  several old recent highs of complacency and breadth that even the Fed cannot ignore or correct. More text at:


Here are last week's numbers: 

Date>
2/8/2013 2/1/2013
Indices: DJIA  13992 14009
  NAZ  3193 3179

SPX  1517 1513
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   9.7/3.3 10.0/3.8
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.94 2.63
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  62 68
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13 12.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. ..1671/1467 ..1764/1384
Weekly Net:
204 380
     Cumulative: 147413 147209
Weekly  NYSE hi/low ..580/37 ..725/48
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l ..395/48 ..496/51
McClellan  Oscillator 3 14
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 1055 1083
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 54.7 54.3
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 21.1 22.3

AAII  -Bull :wed. 42.8 48

Bear  29.6 24.3
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 13/26 14/24
CEOinsider selling 72:1 64:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  82 82
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 3.5B 1weeklag
MMF flows Change in $B (3.7B) (.1B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  DEC. 330B
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond DEC. 764/329/243
Assets in  Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.26% 0.29%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, February 4, 2013

W(H)ITHER THE DOW?

As this blog has noted all year (??), caution is to be used in the stock market, due to several toppy Indicators, especially the previous week. Please visit the Examiner.com column for detailed text of this past week's signals:  



Date>
2/1/2013 1/25/2013
Indices: DJIA  14009 13895
  NAZ  3179 3149

SPX  1513 1502
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   10.0/3.8 7.3/2.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.63 2.70
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  68 66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.9 12.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1764/1384 2181/957
Weekly Net:
380 1224
     Cumulative: 147209 146829
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 725/48 794/32
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 496/51 432/32
McClellan  Oscillator 14 35
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 1083 1046
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 54.3 53.2
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 22.3 22.3

AAII  -Bull :wed. 48 52.3

Bear  24.3 24.3
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 14/24 12/35.
CEOinsider selling 64:1 47:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  82 81
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag 3.5B
MMF flows Change in $B (.1B) (4.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  330B
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond 764/329/243
Assets in  Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.29% 0.29%



With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


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