Monday, November 26, 2012

Decade Highs and Lows:


Date> DECADE HI LOW
Indices: DJIA  14093 6626
  NAZ  2937 1114

SPX  1561 683
WklyVolume (Bshs).  
NASD/NYSE      
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 3.15 1.59
nasd/nyse    
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  104.11/08 42
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 90 8.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE..    
Weekly Net:    
     Cumulative: 143458 71464
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 950 18
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l    
McClellan  Oscillator Jan.09:108 May.'12:110
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 1568-6/03 -1514
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 62.9-12/04 22.2-10/08
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 54.4-10/08 15.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. (12/10)63.3  

Bear  70.3(3/09) 16.4
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k    
CEOinsider selling 235:1 .2.1
3-box rev Bullish%-  88 2
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 381B(7/07)  
MMF flows Change in $B

MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 

ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond


 Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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EXAMINE THIS! :

As mentioned in previous blogs, explanation and interpretation of Sentiment Indicators will be shown on my Examiner.com site each week, as well as meeting notices, DITM, etc.:
http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Here are the numbers from last week: 
 (Also shown below - decade highs and lows for each Indicators)
 
Date>
11/23/2012 11/16/2012
Indices: DJIA  13009 12588
NAZ  2966 2853

SPX  1409 1359
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE 5.5/2.2 9.4/3.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.50 2.69
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  60 77
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 15.14 16.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2804/362 671/2512
Weekly Net:
2442 -1841
     Cumulative: 141066 138624
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 183/77 133/392
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 72/147 65/361
McClellan  Oscillator 50 -54
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -62 -125
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 37.2 38.3
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 27.7 28.7

AAII  -Bull :wed. 35.8 28.8

Bear  40.8 48.8
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 6/13. 6/13.
CEOinsider selling 14:1 15:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  60 58
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag 1weeklag
MMF flows Change in $B 26.6B (2.5B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 

ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond

Assets in  Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.28% 0.25%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, November 19, 2012

RALLY TIME!:

As mentioned last week, for more explanation (text) on the Sentiment Indicators, please click on the link below (Subscribe for automatic weekly reminders and updates).




 

Date>
11/16/2012 11/9/2012
Indices: DJIA  12588 12815
  NAZ  2853 2904

SPX  1359 1379
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   9.4/3.5 8.9/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.69 2.47
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  77 73
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 16.4 18.6
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 671/2512 876/2294
Weekly Net:
-1841 -1418
     Cumulative: 138624 140465
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 133/392 275/186
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 65/361 129/233
McClellan  Oscillator -54 -44
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -125 206
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 38.3 43.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 28.7 27.7

AAII  -Bull :wed. 28.8 38.5

Bear  48.8 39.9
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 6/13. 1/18.
CEOinsider selling 15:1 36:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  58 65
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag (2.1B)
MMF flows Change in $B (2.5B) 31B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
315Bsept
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond
758/289/233
Assets in  Billion$$ .
sept.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.25% 0.27%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, November 12, 2012

SENTIMENTAL JOURNAL



 In the future, to avoid duplication of efforts and save time, the Market Sentiment blog: 
will be produced in a weekly Examiner column.


This blog, written for a decade or more, lists and analyzes Sentiment Indicators that have proved most effective in predicting market direction, based on human behavior. Although the Examiner is more friendly to prose commentary, the table will still be posted at the above link, due to production capability. A more comprehensive explanation of the numbers in the matrix will be possible.




Date>
11/9/2012 11/2/2012
Indices: DJIA  12815 13093
NAZ  2904 2982

SPX  1379 1414
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE 8.9/3.6 5.5/2.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.47 2.29*
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  73 68
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 18.6 17.6
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 876/2294 1919/1222
Weekly Net:
-1418 697
     Cumulative: 140465 141883
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 275/186 318/87
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 129/233 169/138
McClellan  Oscillator -44 -19
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 206 339
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 43.6 41.5
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 27.7 27.7

AAII  -Bull :wed. 38.5 35.7

Bear  39.9 23.3
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 1/18. 1/24.
CEOinsider selling 36:1 13:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  65 70
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag 1weeklag
MMF flows Change in $B 31B (22.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  315Bsept 287B
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond 758/289/233 715/270/230
Assets in  Billion$$ . sept. week
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.27% 0.29%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, November 5, 2012

WHIPSAW WEEK:

In a classic whipsaw last week, due to the storm closures, the markets experienced a Candlestick Doji on Hallowe'en, followed by huge back to back days going nowhere. As investors and voters wait on tenterhooks for the election results ( hopefully sometime Tuesday night despite east coast problems), markets remain sideways.
It is obviously hard to tell what markets will do based on the results - an Obama victory would keep much of the Fiscal Cliff alive - PPACA, benefits, (Debt), etc., while a Romney victory would see the Bernanke put expire worthless, ending the sugar high equities markets.

 Because of the two-day hiatus Volume was low, but still a speculative 2.29:1 ratio of NASD to NYSE; the  CBOE equity put/call ratio lessened a bit, but still high (Bullish). Breadth ( Advance to Declines) swung mightily from negative to positive, as did NASD new highs/lows. Newsletter surveys came out despite the storm (Tues. & Wed. results) but diverged widely, as shown below.

The McClellan Oscillator is still negative while its cumulative Summation is headed down to zero - don't expect a new Bull market until it bottoms out well below the zero line, if past is prologue.
Finally, over $22B came out of MMFunds last week.

Here are the numbers:


Date>
11/2/2012 10/26/2012
Indices: DJIA  13093 13107
  NAZ  2982 2987

SPX  1414 1411
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   5.5/2.4 9.0/3.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.29* 2.65
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  68 75
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17.6 17.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1919/1222 1151/1998
Weekly Net:
697 -847
     Cumulative: 141883 141186
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 318/87 231/113
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 169/138 117/186
McClellan  Oscillator -19 -37
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 339 381
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 41.5 41.5
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 27.7 27.7

AAII  -Bull :wed. 35.7 29.2

Bear  23.3 43.1
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 1/24. (3)/30
CEOinsider selling 13:1 55:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  70 69
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag (1.9B)
MMF flows Change in $B (22.7B) .9B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  287B AUG.:
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond 715/270/230 AUG.:
Assets in  Billion$$ . week
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.29% 0.31%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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