Monday, April 30, 2012

THE BIG CASINO:

Next week's Sentiment blog will occur early (Friday) due to my vacationing in Lake Tahoe. The past week, due to the rally back with increasing volatility, there is a mixed picture. My cumulative Adv./Decl. is at a new high, indicative of strong buying, yet the CEO Insider Selling shot to a 58:1 ratio over Buyers (albeit on low Volume).
The previous week ( the "Selling" week) saw $8.7B come out of Equity funds, although flows from all ETFs for March (see bottom of table) - domestic and foreign equity, and bond ETFs- were flat. Margin buying increased slightly, per ICI.
The AAII Bull/Bear ratio became more inverted - a bullish sign. And very short term (as we see today) the McClellan Oscillator rose to +44, near my +50 line.
Here are the numbers:

Date>
4/27/2012 4/20/2012
Indices: DJIA  13228 13029
NAZ  3069 3000

SPX  1403 1378
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 8.6/3.9 8.6/4.0
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.21 2.15
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  59 63
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 16.3 17.4

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2251/923 2036/1136

Weekly Net: 1328 900

     Cumulative: 133728 132400
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 308/102 208/93
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 238/125 194/120
McClellan  Oscillator 44 -8
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 193 139
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 41.9 44.1
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 23.7 23.7

AAII  -Bull :wed. 27.6 31.2

Bear  37.4 33.8
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 2/(8) 8/(5)
CEOinsider selling 58:1 12:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 1116 972
3-box rev Bullish%-  71 74
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (8.7B)
MMF flows Change in $B (.5B) .3B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  MARCH $295B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ . MARCH 704/286/202
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.27% 0.28%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset-CommHedg 5.3 5.3

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, April 23, 2012

WMDs: WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION:

Barron's magazine this week reported the Big Money Poll Result for the upcoming months - even these geniuses can prove to be a Contrarian's delight. Last Fall the number of Bulls was a lowly 52% - as we now know, the market rallied some 24% since then; the previous Spring the number was 59%, just when the when the DJIA was poised to drop 800 points in May, and 1600 points in June. The Poll number is now 55% Bullish (4% VERY).
Barron's also reported the oft-quoted statistic that since WWII the Nov. to May cycle has produced a profit on $100 to nearly $10,000; while its complementary cycle (May to Nov.) would have netted $99, or a $1 LOSS. If today is any indication.....
The Indicators are, on the whole, rather benign with the Bullish exception of a reversal in the AAII Bull/Bear ratio to 31 Bulls to 33 Bears; also the number of Insider Sales to Buys dropped precipitously, and the MMFs actually had a small Inflow for the first time on many months.

Here are the numbers:


Date>
4/20/2012 4/13/2012
Indices: DJIA  13029 12849
NAZ  3000 3011

SPX  1378 1370
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 8.6/4.0 7.7/4.0
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.15 1.93
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  63 66
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17.4 19.6

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2036/1136 915/2260

Weekly Net: 900 -1345

     Cumulative: 132400 131500
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 208/93 111/109
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 194/120 113/142
McClellan  Oscillator -8 -46
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 139 231
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 44.1 48.4
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 23.7 21.5

AAII  -Bull :wed. 31.2 28.1

Bear  33.8 41.6
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 8/(5) 2/(1)
CEOinsider selling 12:1 42:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 972 928
3-box rev Bullish%-  74 sell76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (1.5B)
MMF flows Change in $B .3B (6.1B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly FEB..

ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ FEB..

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.28% 0.27%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset-CommHedg 5.3 5.3

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, April 16, 2012

SELL IN MAY:

A recent iteration of the May-Nov. rule (6-month cycle) showed if a $100 were invested in the Oct.to May cycle, the profit since shortly after WWII would be just under $10,000 - if the complement cycle were used to invest, the result would be $99 ( a $1 loss). Something to think about these days - a reason to look into the DITM covered call strategy, with the Weapons of Math Destruction looming!
As expected, investors  (those few who remain after the 70% artificial intelligence crowd gets through with them) got a bit defensive in attitude: the CBOE Equity put/call ratio rose from 60 to 66 the past week; AAII Bears rose hugely from 27% to 41%! Bulls dropped 10 points to 28.
  Dollars continue to exit Money Market Funds (no surprise there) but also from equity funds. Most are still going into bonds, some ETFs. Today's DJIA rally is no surprise after the selloff drove the McClellan Oscillator down to -46 -just off my -50 delimiter.
Here are the weekly numbers:

Date>
4/13/2012 4/5/2012
Indices: DJIA  12849 13060
  NAZ  3011 3080

SPX  1370 1398
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 7.7/4.0 6.9/3.1
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.93 2.23
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  66 60
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 19.6 16.7

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 915/2260 1139/1999

Weekly Net: -1345 -860

     Cumulative: 131500 132845
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 111/109 246/68
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 113/142 197/107
McClellan  Oscillator -46 -25
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 231 540
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 48.4 52.7
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 21.5 21.5

AAII  -Bull :wed. 28.1 38.2

Bear  41.6 27.8
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 2/(1) .6/2
CEOinsider selling 42:1 44:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 928 931
3-box rev Bullish%-  sell76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (4.3B)
MMF flows Change in $B (6.1B) (15.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly FEB..

ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ FEB..

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.27% 0.32%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset-CommHedg 5.3 5.2

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, April 9, 2012

BETTER LATE THAN NEVER:

Sentiment Indicators warned of toppiness in the markets a few weeks ago with Orange Alert, and Tom DeMark of Bloomie nailed it on March 26. Based on several reasons, my guess of 2012 was a Bar Bell approach, with the 1st and 4th Q rising, and the middle sloppy. 6-month, 4-year Presidential and Decennial cycles are the main deciders. So good so far.

Buy signals are not seen nor expected in the near future - several Indicators are still at Bearish (for the market) levels. the Inv.Intell. Bulls hit 52.7%, a recent high; NASD Volume increased vs. NYSE (speculative); CEO Insider Selling was cut in half, but still high at 44:1. The SPX was stretched above its 50-day MA.

For my DITM (deep-in-the-money) covered call strategy:
it has been put on hold while awaiting a bottom entry level. While it is not the best short term strategy for the recent Bull run, it has increased the safety cushion on existing holdings.

Here are the numbers:








Date>
4/5/2012 3/30/2012
Indices: DJIA  13060 13212
  NAZ  3080 3091

SPX  1398 1408
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 6.9/3.1 8.5/4.1
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.23 2.07
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  60 66
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 16.7 15.5

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1139/1999 1723/1443

Weekly Net: -860 280

     Cumulative: 132845 133705
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 246/68 320/61
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 197/107 351/57
McClellan  Oscillator -25 40
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 540 664
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 52.7 50.1
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 21.5 22.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. 38.2 42.5

Bear  27.8 25.5
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k .6/2 5/(2)
CEOinsider selling 44:1 89:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 931 930
3-box rev Bullish%- 
83
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (3.5B)
MMF flows Change in $B (15.2B) (17.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly FEB..
289B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ FEB..
691/291/200
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.32% 0.34%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset-CommHedg 5.2 5













































































































With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, April 2, 2012

IS APRIL THE CRUELEST MONTH t.s.elliot?

According to Barron's magazine, a year ago analysts estimated Q1 of 2012 would be 16%; revised estimates are .7 to 3.1%. And the ratio of earnings pronouncements at 3:1 is the highest since Q1 of 2009 - and we know what happened in March. Transports, the Dow Theory benchmark, was only up 5% last Q, but it is opined that Coal was the reason.
As for the Sentiment Indicators, the Insider Selling to Buying ratio keeps increasing ( but it did that in Q2 of 2009 - the start of the Bull market). Last week was 89:1. Money is flowing out of MMFs at an increasing rate, but mostly going into Bond funds, with equity ETFs increasing slightly.
Large traders, from the Commitment of Traders table, have reversed their multi-month position and are now long the S&P futures, while Small traders are now short. Complacency rules in the newsletter surveys, but toppiness is seen in the McClellan Oscillator and the Bullish % remains high (overbot).
Be sure to check out my new Examiner.com for local events and stock market news.
Here are the numbers:


Date>
3/30/2012 3/22/2012
Indices: DJIA  13212 13080
  NAZ  3091 3067

SPX  1408 1397
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 8.5/4.1 7.5/3.7
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.07 2.03
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  66 57
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 15.5 14.8

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1723/1443 1393/1765

Weekly Net: 280 -372

     Cumulative: 133705 133425
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 320/61 235/40
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 351/57 293/58
McClellan  Oscillator 40 38
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 664 765
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 50.1 48.4
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 22.6 23.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. 42.5 42.4

Bear  25.5 27.8
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 5/(2) 10/(4)
CEOinsider selling 89:1 83:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 930 874
3-box rev Bullish%-  83 83
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (1.8B)
MMF flows Change in $B (17.2B) (15.5B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly FEB.. 289B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ FEB.. 691/291/200
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.34% 0.37%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset-CommHedg   5 4.9 

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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