Monday, January 30, 2012

REVERSAL OF FORTUNE:

After a very insignificant increase in Equity Fund flows the previous week, outflows returned last week to the norm from last April. The latest monthly data of ETFs show almost no change in flows from stocks, Int'l, or bonds.
Toppiness still abounds, in speculative Volume (NASD/NYSE), McClellan Oscillator, Bullish %, and the number of Bears in both the AAII and Inv.Intell. Even Barron's cover story was about defensive strategies, using dividend stocks, and the option column is still preaching covered calls.The January Barometer and Effect are both positive, but February is usually not one of the better months - especially after a 20% run up from Oct. (5% this year alone).


Date>
1/27/2012 1/20/2012
Indices: DJIA  12660 12720
NAZ  2816 2786

SPX  1316 1315
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs) 4.0/9.1 3.3/7.8
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.28 2.36
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  62 52
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 18.5 18.3

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2251/905 2414/730

Weekly Net: 1346 1684

     Cumulative: 130736 129390
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 367/25 292/36
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 200/39 166/43
McClellan  Oscillator 47 52
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 1050 810
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 50 50
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 28.7 29.8

AAII  -Bull :wed. 48.4 47.2

Bear  18.9 23.6
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k (2)/16 (4)/19
CEOinsider selling 28:1 25:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 753 862
3-box rev Bullish%-  80 78
US equity -ICI Fund Flows (.8B) 1 wk lag
MMF flows Change in $B (15B) (13B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly OCT. 267B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ OCT. 618/245/184
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.22% 0.25%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset-CommHedg 4.82 4.89M

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark

Monday, January 23, 2012

ORANGE ALERT:

Interesting week for a rather calm stock market: the S&P500 broke up through the 1300 level to a double top from last July - Larry McMillan states that it is 3 Std Deviations above its 20-day MA, and just as Oct and Apr.'11 and Feb.'07, the OEX put/call Volume ratio was 2:1. The Baltic Dry Index broke below 1000 for the first time in 3 years, a global economic indicator. My cumulative A/D total broke to a new all-time high (overbought); the NASD to NYSE Volume (speculative) also hit a new high.US equity fund flows reversed to inflows for the first time since April 22 of last year -a multi-year high. As seen below, most indicators are Bearish FOR the markets.


Date>
1/20/2012 1/13/2012
Indices: DJIA  12720 ..12422
  NAZ  2786 ..2710

SPX  1315 1289
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs) 3.3/7.8 3.9/8.7
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.36 2.23
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  52 59
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 18.3 20.9

Advance/Dec-NYSE 2414/730 2161/988

Weekly Net: 1684 1173

     Cumulative: 129390 127706
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 292/36 277/50
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 166/43 153/89
McClellan  Oscillator 52 26
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 810 618
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 50 51.1
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 29.8 29.8

AAII  -Bull :wed. 47.2 49.1

Bear  23.6 17.2
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k (4)/19 (9)/21
CEOinsider selling 25:1 20:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 862 1105
3-box rev Bullish%-  78 73
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag .75B
MMF flows Change in $B (13B) 11B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly OCT.

ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ OCT.

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.25% 0.23%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset-CommHedg 4.89M 4.96M

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark

Sunday, January 15, 2012

RALPH CLARK - R.I.P:

This column is dedicated to a good friend, neighbor, and fellow investor, who passed away late last week from ALS at 81. Ralph Clark was a student of investing, at GGU and briefly with the San Francisco Bay Area Options Group. Before passing, he asked me to dispose of nearly 50 quality investment books which I intend to do at the upcoming Options monthly meeting this Saturday morning at Fort Mason, where I and other speakers will explain our experiences with my DITM investment strategy.
Last week's Sentiment numbers saw some toppy, overbought readings, creating a caution signal: my Volume ratio - NASD/NYSE is approaching a high (speculative) reading. Although only testing for a short time (2011), these levels were at previous tops in April 6, May 2, and July 22. My cum. Volume of Adv./Dec. is also toppy, going back to April. Commitment of Traders show Large Specs on the S&P going negative vs. positive for Small Specs. Most dramatic is the AAII and Inv.Intell. Bull/Bear ratios. Numbers appear below:


Date>
1/13/2012 1/6/2012
Indices: DJIA  ..12422 ..12359
  NAZ  ..2710 ..2674

SPX  1289 1277
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs) 3.9/8.7 3.2/6.9
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.23 2.16
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  59 63
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 20.9 20.6

Advance/Dec-NYSE 2161/988 2213/947

Weekly Net: 1173 1266

     Cumulative: 127706 126533
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 277/50 305/27
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 153/89 118/81
McClellan  Oscillator 26 29
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 618 395
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 51.1 49.5
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 29.8 30.5

AAII  -Bull :wed. 49.1 48.9

Bear  17.2 17.2
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 21/(9) 12/5.
CEOinsider selling 20:1 30:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 1105 1426
3-box rev Bullish%-  73 68
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (7B)
MMF flows Change in $B 11B (1.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly OCT.

ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ OCT.

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.23% 0.27%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset-CommHedg 4.96M 5.13M

  

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark

Monday, January 9, 2012

JANUARY BAROMETER:

As the old saying goes (Observable, but not Actionable) : So goes the first week of January - so goes the month; so goes January, so goes the year! Of course, a la the Heisenberg principle - since the year contains the month, it has a nice running start.
Sentiment Indicators are running a little hot lately - not quite calling for a reversal, but approaching overbought conditions: The VIX is down to 20; the AAII  Bears dropped from 30 to under 20! MMF flows went negative for the first time since November. Bullish % is nearing a high level, where previous tops have occurred, although 88% is the highest high.
The herd-like media is finally all aflutter about zero interest rates penalizing prudent investors, and I have been asked to revisit my DITM covered call strategy at the upcoming SF Options Group meeting on Jan.21 at Fort Mason. After successfully testing this plan for nearly three years, giving several Bay Area talks and even writing a book on it, people are finally seeing the value of it - @10% annualized returns, WITH a Safety Net. If interested for a portion of one's assets, please visit brentleonard.com for more information.
Here are the Sentiment numbers:


Date>
1/6/2012 12/30/2011
Indices: DJIA  12359 12217
NAZ  2674 2605

SPX  1277 1257
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs) 3.2/6.9 2.2/4.6
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.16 2.10
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  63 67
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 20.6 23.4

Advance/Dec-NYSE 2213/947 1218/1896

Weekly Net: 1266 -678

     Cumulative: 126533 125267
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 305/27 295/72
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 118/81 92/161
McClellan  Oscillator 29 24
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 395 240
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 49.5 50.5
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 30.5 29.5

AAII  -Bull :wed. 48.9 40.6

Bear  17.2 30.8
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 12/5. 7/7.
CEOinsider selling 30:1 18:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 1426 1888
3-box rev Bullish%- 68 ..63buy
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (4B)
MMF flows Change in $B (1.9B) 2.6B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly OCT.
269B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ OCT.
615/262/178
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.27% 0.25%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset-CommHedg 5.13M 5.04M

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark

Monday, January 2, 2012

YEAR END WHIMPER:

With the S&P 500 ending EXACTLY the same as the year before -1257.6 - it signified the boring end to 2011; many of the Indicators regressed to the mean on low Volume, with the VIX at 23. Some relative extremes did include the Inv.Intell. Bulls at 50+%; my records show a 62.9% high in Dec. of '04. AAII Bulls jumped to 40% - must be the champagne! A small number of funds flowed out of equity funds into MMFs, but the ETFs remained almost unchanged month/month.
Here are closing numbers for 2011:

Date>
12/30/2011 12/23/2011
Indices: DJIA  12217 12294
  NAZ  2605 2618

SPX  1257 1265
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs) 2.2/4.6 3.8/7.7
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.10 2.03
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  67 63
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 23.4 20.7

Advance/Dec-NYSE 1218/1896 2577/587

Weekly Net: -678 1990

     Cumulative: 125267 125945
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 295/72 293/146
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 92/161 111/257
McClellan  Oscillator 24 48
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 240 134
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 50.5 48.4
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 29.5 30.5

AAII  -Bull :wed. 40.6 33.7

Bear  30.8 28.2
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 7/7. 0/12.
CEOinsider selling 18:1 10:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 1888 1888
3-box rev Bullish%-  63buy 61
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag 1 wk lag
MMF flows Change in $B 2.6B 14.2B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly OCT. 269B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ OCT. 615/262/178
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.25% 0.29%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset-CommHedg 5.04M 5.06M



















































































































With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark