Monday, October 26, 2009

HALLOWE'EN , PART TWO:

Today's Sentiment posting is in 2 parts, as the new system requires special handling - so here is the commentary for Oct.26:
The stock market has more legs than the Fox Channel, despite today's month-end profit-taking. Although most all foreign money is going into bonds (Treasurys, GSEs, etc.) Trillions are still looking for a home above zero percent, especially with the safety that the U.S. provides.
According to the latest JP Morgan Quarterly booklet in the 4 great Recessions the past century with consecutive declines in the market, all saw highdouble-digit or triple-digit returns following the trough: 
Great Depression - down 71%, up 148%
WWII - down 34%, up 100%
1974 Oil Crisis - down 42%, up 57%
Internet Bubble - down 42%, up 67% into 2007
Breadth remains huge,with New Highs outnumbering New Lows on the NYSE 713 to 8!
CEO Insider Selling remains worrisome at 22:1 and the Investors Intelligence Bulls are complacently high at 49; yet the McClellan Oscillator is at its support level of -50.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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HALLOWE'EN:


MktSentiment
Last Week
Prev. Week
5 Year HI
5 Year LOW





DJIA:
9972
9995
14093
6626
Nasdaq:

2154
2156
2126
1114
S&P 500:

1079
1087
1561
683
CBOE Eq. put/call:
61
51
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX:

22.3
21.4
90
8.8
McClellan Osc:
-49
-16
108
-100
McClellan Sum:

1032
1154
1568
-1514
Newsletter Surveys




Investors Intel.




Bull:

49.5
47.2
63
22.21
Bear:

23.1
26.4
54.4
16
AAII




Bull:
40.5
47.3
n/a
n/a
Bear:
35.7
33.8
n/a
n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:

0.63
0.74
2.2
0.56
Baltic Dry Index:
3043
2728
11700
663
Bullish %:
84
84
88
2
Insider Corporate Sellers:
22:1
23:1
108:1
2.4:1
1-YEAR %:




VIX Volatility:

-70


-22.00
VIX 1-month Future:

-58


-18.00
VIX 5-month Future:
-22


-7

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, October 19, 2009

Market ZUGZWANG - Or Forced Move (chess term):

Amongst a rather tepid list of Indicators last week, with the VIX at a new recent low and the Bullish % still overbought, the only extremes were a bullish breadth number - the NYSE New Highs at 802 vs. only 6 NLs; the other extreme was, not so much the rise in Insider Selling, from 13:1 to 23:1, but strangely, the number of key officers buying company stock in the Financials, 3/4 of the total buying of all 10 sectors.

MktSentiment.           10/16/2009  Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA  ……….           9995…………9865.………..14093............6626
Nasdaq……….         2156…………2139…………2810.............1114
S&P500……..           1087…………1076………….1561………..683
CBOE Eq.
..put/call...............................51………….52……..……96….....46                                   
VIX     ……….           21.4…………..23.1…….…….90…….….8.8
McClellan Osc………-16……………..7…………..108……..(-100) McClelSum…………..1154………..1160………..…....1568-....-1514
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -
Bull:………………….n/a…………n/a.. ………….…63 ……...22.2l
Bear:…………           .n/a………….n/a……..……… 54.4….......16
AAII-Bull……………47.3…..........35.1
……Bear ………….…33.8……….41.2
Nova/Ursa
MutualFunds………0.74…………0.74…………….2.2……..0.56
Baltic Dry
Index                 ……2728………..2695………….11700………663                      
Bullish%-       …….…84…………..82………….…88…….....2
*Insider corporate
 sellers.   ……..           23:1……….13:1……………108:1…….2.4:1
Mutual Fund Inflows .. n/a

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.
Readers can request being added to an e-mail distribution list alert by sending address to leonbrnt@aol.com without fear of selling their names to spammers or contracting viruses.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Weekly results October 13:

Below are this week's Sentiment numbers, after the Holiday and return from vacation:






MktSentiment
10/13/09
Prev. Week
5Yr.HI
5Yr.LOW





DJIA
9865
9509
14093
6626
Nasdaq
2139
2057
2810
1114
S&P500
1076
1029
1561
683
CBOE Eq.:




 put/call
52
72
96
46
VIX
24.1
25.3
90
8.8
McClellan Osc
7
-68
108
-100
McClelSum
1160
1290
1568
-1514
Newsletter Surveys:




Inv.Intel:




Bull
48.3
50.6
63
22.21
Bear
23.6
24.1
54.4
16
AAII:




Bull
35.1
43.6
n/a
n/a
Bear
41.2
35.5
n/a
n/a
Nova/Ursa




MutualFunds:
0.87
1.04
2.2
0.56
Baltic Dry




Index:
2468
2415
11700
663
Bullish%-
84
81
88
2
*Insider corporate




sellers:
13:1
n/a
108:1
2.4:1
Mutual Fund Inflows
-1.9B
-1.4B


VIX. Volatility
-1
20.00
12.00
-22.00
VIX. 1-month future
-10
2.00
2.00
-18.00
VIX. 5-month future
-4
3
8
-7

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Friday, October 2, 2009

EARLY EDITION -STILL IN PROGRESS

Below is a rough version of the Thursday close (before family vacation) in the new format process . Noticable extremes include the oversold McClellan Oscillator (Tom is bullish on the market due to extreme breadth and liquidity); on the flip side the Bullish per cent gave a 3-box SELL signal and the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio is complacent at 50+.
(Dow, Nasdaq and S&P updated to market close - gort3ster@gmail.com - in Brent's absence - comments/email on format change welcome)

MktSentiment
10/02/2009

Prev. Week
5 Year HI
5 Year LOW





DJIA:
9488
9665
14093
6626
Nasdaq:

2048
2090
2126
1114
S&P 500:

1025
1044
1561
683
CBOE Eq. put/call:
74
61
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX:

28.3
25.6
90
8.8
McClellan Osc:
-68
-43
108
-100
McClellan Sum:

1290
1426
1568
-1514
Newsletter Surveys




Investors Intel.




Bull:

50.6
46.7
63
22.21
Bear:

23.6
24.4
54.4
16
AAII




Bull:




Bear:




Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:

0.94
0.86
2.2
0.56
Baltic Dry Index:
2284
2163
11700
663
Bullish %:
82
86
88
2
Insider Corporate Sellers:
n/a
54:1
108:1
2.4:1
Mutual Fund Inflows:
-1.1B
-0.3B


ETF Inflows:
1.5B
1.5B



With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


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