Tuesday, December 27, 2016

SANTA CLAUS RALLY

Odds are, despite Dark Pools making up half the stock market Volume these days, that the usual final week will pass us through the 20,000 mark on the DJIA, even with a four-day week. After that, I do not see much of a strong rally in 2017.
One reason is that so many $$ are going into Index ETFs, that it is lifting the bad/weak members of that Index along with the good, and could weaken the rally. Most Indicators below were Bullish, short term, except for the early week newsletter Bull/Bear ratios. Nasdaq Volume was strong, yet overall Volume down; stocks on BUY signals up; equity flows from MMFs good.

 Have a Great New Years!!

Date   12/23/2016 12/16/2016
Indices: DJIA  19933 19843
  NAZ  5462 5437
SPX  2263 2258
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 7.5/3.5 11.0/6.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.14 1.77
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  69 58
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.4 12.2
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 69% 70%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1815/1289 1045/2063
Weekly Net: 526 -1018
     Cumulative: 171190 170664
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 314/68 475/182
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 457/149 564/153
McClellan  Oscillator 9 4
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 466 403
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 59.8 59.6
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 19.6 19.2
Wed. AAII  -Bull  44.6 44.7
Bear  29.2 32.3
US$-WSJ 102.9 102.8
3-box rev Bullish%-  70 71
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 19.0B
MMF flows Change in $B (20.8B) (3.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  484B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.54% 2.59%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.20% 1.26%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 112.5 111.2

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Thursday, December 22, 2016

'TIS THE SEASON...

For ThanksTaking !! Am I the only one who noticed that it used to be crass to send an Xmas greeting and also ask for donations (charities, etc. - catching people a their most vulnerable moment). Kinda like the post-millenium change of corporate mandate from what is best of the company and product to what is best for the investor ( e.g. key employees who hold tons of vested shares)!!

That said, I wanted to wish readers of my sentiment blog: mktsentiment.blogspot.com. a happy year end season; also suggest a gift (commercial) Leland Faust's book A Capitalist's Lament. A former Barron's all star Advisor with mucho experience writes about the corruption on Wall St. and D.C., but loves the idea of Capitalism done right. Good Read. $25.  

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, December 19, 2016

OPTIONS "EXASPERATION"

Friday was the last Option expiry and Triple Witching (futures,stocks) of 2016, and other things were happening to the market, including the upcoming Holidays. The week was basically a non-event as the DJIA moved up a tad, others down. Volume was a record high and the new Delta MSI indicator (Bullish when high) hit 70. The McClellan Oscillator was flat, as was the VIX and today's market. The I.I. Bull/Bear ratio stayed above 3.0, which shows complacency.
Here are the numbers:

Date   12/16/2016 12/9/2016
Indices: DJIA  19843 19786
  NAZ  5437 5444
SPX  2258 2259
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 11.0/6.2 10.0/4.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.77 2.17
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  58 53
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.2 11.8
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 70% 64%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1045/2063 2451/666
Weekly Net: -1018 1785
     Cumulative: 170664 171682
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 475/182 676/94
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 564/153 788/120
McClellan  Oscillator 4 50
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 403 345
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 59.6 58.8
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 19.2 19.6
Wed. AAII  -Bull  44.7 43.1
Bear  32.3 26.5
US$-WSJ 102.8 101.6
3-box rev Bullish%-  71 68
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 3.0B
MMF flows Change in $B (3.9B) 16.9B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  484B OCT.
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.59% 2.47%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.26% 1.14%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 111.2 112.8

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, December 12, 2016

EVERYTHING IS BEEEEAUTIFUL

So They (everyone) Say! The Trump Market will rise to at least 20,000 in the next 6 months! But not straight up. At a recent TSAA (technical analysts' society) annual luncheon, veteran analyst, teacher, and partner with Martin Pring -Bruce Fraser-, gave a talk on the markets. Although he did not say we were near a top, the charts he showed were convincing that a possible cessation might occur: a "Broadening top in the SPX looks to make a 5-wave triangle, and the Co-dependence of stocks to Bonds shows an offset top occurring.
The Investors' Intelligence Bull/Bear reached a 3 X Bull dominance (complacency) - a rarity! 59 to 19. Advance/Declines were 4 to 1 and New highs on the Nasdaq hit a record 700+ to 100. Also, the Volumes showed a large increase in NAS to NYSE (also speculative) The McClellan Oscillator hit +50 (my short term sell signal, which proved again today, at least for the NAS and SPX). We shall find out in the Fullness of Time.

Here are last week's numbers:

Date 12/9/2016 12/2/2016
Indices: DJIA  19786 19170
NAZ  5444 5255
SPX  2259 2191
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 10.0/4.6 9.4/5.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.17 1.71
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  53 61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.8 14.1
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 64% 66%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2451/666 1026/2098
Weekly Net: 1785 -1075
     Cumulative: 171682 169897
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 676/94 462/178
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 788/120 536/144
McClellan  Oscillator 50 3
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 345 110
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 58.8 56.3
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 19.6 22.3
Wed. AAII  -Bull  43.1 43.8
Bear  26.5 25.1
US$-WSJ 101.6 100.3
3-box rev Bullish%-  68 65
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 2.8B
MMF flows Change in $B 16.9B 13.9B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  OCT. n/a
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.47% 2.39%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.14% 1.10%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 112.8 113.1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, December 5, 2016

TAKING A "BREADTHER"

Last week saw new His only in the DJIA as breadth took a breather; Advance/declines were 1 to 2, but Stocks on Buy signals were Bullish, as were New His. Bulls and Bears ratios were not good (complacent) but early in the week.
Volume back to normal after the ThanksTaking Holiday week, and NYSE to NASD was Bullish (less speculative).
Here are the ##s:

Date   12/2/2016 11/25/2016
Indices: DJIA  19170 19152nh
  NAZ  5255 5398
SPX  2191 2213
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.4/5.5 6.0/3.0*
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.71 2
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  61 60
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14.1 12.3
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 66% 64%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1026/2098 2454/662
Weekly Net: -1075 1792
     Cumulative: 169897 170972
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 462/178 451/69
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 536/144 628/84
McClellan  Oscillator 3 59
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 110 34
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 56.3 55.9
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 22.3 21.6
Wed. AAII  -Bull  43.8 49.9
Bear  25.1 22.1
US$-WSJ 100.3 101.5
3-box rev Bullish%-  65 63
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 6.9B
MMF flows Change in $B 13.9B 18.8B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  n/a 501B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.39% 2.36%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 10.00% 1.12%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.1 113.1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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