Monday, September 24, 2012

SO GOOD, SO FAR!:

Despite the oft-publicized warning that September is the cruelest month for stocks, the Election Year projections from Ned Davis Research that I've been writing about here and the Examiner column: 

according to it, however, next week is the critical market juncture. Of the 28 EYs from 1900, if the Incumbent is to win, or the summation of all EYs (including termed out), the market will keep rising, with bumps, of course. The U.S. fiscal year (not cliff) ends this month, the election, Euro, etc. can produce volatility.

Sentiment indicators are issuing an overbought warning for now, hopefully just a sideways move. Facts such as the End of Quarter rebalancing by institutions, put/call ratio, bullish per cent, even newsletter surveys show caution.  Last week the CEO Insider Selling was 42:1 after hitting a high of 78 :1 the week before. Last week selling brought the McClellan Oscillator near zero, but the cum. Summation is way high at 888. NYSE new lows to highs were almost 20:1 again. 

Awhile back Arch Crawford, who trained at Merrill Lynch under Bob Farrell, but relies a lot on alignment of stars, points out the current Vernal Equinox as a climactic moment for stocks.

Here are the results from last week:

 

Date>
9/21/2012 9/14/2012
Indices: DJIA  13579 13593
  NAZ  3179 3183

SPX  1460 1465
WklyVolume (Bshs).
 
NASD/NYSE   9.2/4.4 8.6/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.09 2.39
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  64 56
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.98 14.5
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1371/1768 2317/837
Weekly Net:
-397 1480
     Cumulative: 143061 143458
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 505/32 722/36
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 332/74 403/81
McClellan  Oscillator 4 63
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 888 820
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 54.2 51.1
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 24.5 25.5

AAII  -Bull :wed. 37.5 36.5

Bear  33.8 33
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 9/22. 5/5.
CEOinsider selling 42:1 78:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  79 79
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (2.8B)
MMF flows Change in $B (10.3B) 8B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
277B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ .
702/264/226
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.27% 0.26%


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, September 17, 2012

COMMENCEMENT AT "SUGAR" HIGH:

Far be it for me to try to fall into the trap of timing the stock market, however, I have more confidence that markets behave more irrationally due to Sentiment and human behavior than pure random walking ( although that does exist very short term).

That said, several yellow caution signs appeared after the Bernanke put rally of last week that causes me to be cautious near term. Technically, it appears that a 5% correction would be possible and healthy, with the rally resuming into year end. As mentioned before, the Election year model since 1900 (an average of 28 election cycles) points to a down to flat market if the incumbent is destined to lose.

Here are my concerns: Barron's columnists Michael Santoli and Steven Sears both point to Larry McMillan's put/call ratio levels calling for a correction. Since the QE3 put option Implied Volatility (IV) is lower than it was in 2007, before the financial meltdown. A very tight inverse correlation between the SPX and equity put/call is seen in Barron's looking like last April. 

For several weeks my CEO insider selling ratio has skyrocketed (over buys) as shown below - doubling w/w; in fact, CEOs leaving office is up 25%, possibly avoiding the Fiscal Cliff. Especially healthcare and financials. Both Bernanke and Draghi seem to be desperate: "whatever it takes".

Elsewhere, the NYSE new highs/lows was a huge 722/36 (more than 20:1); speculative Volume (Nasdaq over NYSE) is still high. newsletter surveys were mild, but they come out Tuesday and Wednesday - before the big Fed runup. Finally, both the Bullish % and McClellan Oscillator are flashing warning/toppy signs - even the McClellan Summation aggregate.

Here are the numbers:


Date>
9/14/2012 9/7/2012
Indices: DJIA  13593 13306
NAZ  3183 3136

SPX  1465 1437
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE 8.6/3.6 6.6/2.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.39 2.44
nasd/nyse

Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  56 62
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14.5 14.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2317/837 2445/678
Weekly Net:
1480 1767
     Cumulative: 143458 141978
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 722/36 520/58
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 403/81 293/86
McClellan  Oscillator 63 35
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 820 616
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 51.1 51
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 25.5 24.5

AAII  -Bull :wed. 36.5 33.1

Bear  33 33.1
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 5/5. (2)/3
CEOinsider selling 78:1 34:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  79 74
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (2.8B)
MMF flows Change in $B 8B (.8B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  277B JULY:
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ . 702/264/226 JULY:
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.26% 0.26%




With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Sunday, September 9, 2012

BACK TO NORMAL:

Summer's over and the crazy season starts, especially in an election year. The Election Year model for September is off to a raging start - according to it, October will let us know who is to win the next Presidency.
The Indicators have settled back to the middle again, not enough for a reversal yet, but Caution. The Inv. Intell. Bull/Bear survey is getting stretched, and the AAII one is exactly even. Breadth is strong, with the McClellan Oscillator approaching the +50 level (my sell signal) - it is now at +35.
Here are the numbers.

Date>
9/7/2012 8/31/2012
Indices: DJIA  13306 13090
  NAZ  3136 3066

SPX  1437 1406
WklyVolume (Bshs).  
NASD/NYSE   6.6/2.7 6.6/2.8
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.44 2.36
nasd/nyse
 
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  62 72
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14.4 17.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2445/678 1693/1437
Weekly Net:
1767 256
     Cumulative: 141978 140211
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 520/58 323/61
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 293/86 163/87
McClellan  Oscillator 35 -5
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 616 558
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 51 48.9
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 24.5 24.5

AAII  -Bull :wed. 33.1 34.7

Bear  33.1 32.6
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k (2)/3 1/1.
CEOinsider selling 34:1 110:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon
discont.
3-box rev Bullish%-  74 71
US equity -ICI Fund Flows (3.7B) 1 wk lag
MMF flows Change in $B (.8B) (2.6B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  JULY: 277B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ . JULY: 702/264/226
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.26% 0.23%    

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, September 3, 2012

SEPTEMBER SONG:

Now that the Dog Days of Summer are over with Labor Day, coupled with some critical upcoming meetings and events, stocks should see more Volatility - hopefully Volume as well. Last week's Indicators are mostly benign with a few standouts:
Insider (legal) Selling was high at 110 to 1; yet the CBOE equity put/call ratio hit 72, showing fear. Breadth, as measured by new highs/lows and advances/declines, still is positive - Volume is speculative with Nasdaq high versus NYSE.
 For more on September's direction guess see -
http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Here are the numbers:


Date>
8/31/2012 8/23/12**
Indices: DJIA  13090 13057
  NAZ  3066 3053

SPX  1406 1402
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 6.6/2.8 n/a
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.36 n/a
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  72 67
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17.4 15.1

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1693/1437 n/a

Weekly Net: 256 n/a

     Cumulative: 140211 n/a
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 323/61 n/a
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 163/87 n/a
McClellan  Oscillator -5 -9
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 558 667
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 48.9 47.3
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 24.5 24.7

AAII  -Bull :wed. 34.7 42

Bear  32.6 25.9
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 1/1. n/a
CEOinsider selling 110:1 n/a
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon discont. discont.
3-box rev Bullish%-  71 70
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (4.5B)
MMF flows Change in $B (2.6B) 0
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  JULY: 277B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ . JULY: 702/264/226
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.23% n/a

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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