Monday, December 28, 2015

WHIFF THIS

Although Inflation is still a long way away, due to a sluggish Economy, etc., the 2-year Treasury Note broke 1% last week, to the upside; the TIPs are still under control, however.
The reliable McClellan Oscillator, at +50 last week, bode unwell for today, which opened down 100 DJI points; however, the AAII Bears still dominate the Bulls and New Highs/Lows (breadth) still stinks. Dec.18, posted below, showed the classic 10:1 low/high ratio on the NYSE, much better last week.
Nice Santa rally last week - has he left town?

Date> 12/24/2015 12/18/2015
Indices: DJIA  17552 17128
  NAZ  5048 4923
SPX  2061 2005
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 5.5/3.0* 11.5/6.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.83 1.77
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  59 66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 15.7 20.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2853/371 1517/1721
Weekly Net: 2482 -204
     Cumulative: 161072 158590
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 88/215 78/793
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 96/237 122/519
McClellan  Oscillator 50 -33
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -137 -244
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull n/a 37.8
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs n/a 29.6
Wed. AAII  -Bull  26.4 23.9
Bear  31.5 39.4
US$-WSJ 89.7
CEOinsider selling n/a Finance
3-box rev Bullish%-  56 54
US equity -ICI Fund Flows week delay  (7.4B)
MMF flows Change in $B 11B (20.3B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  473B NOV.:
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.01% 0.97%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 109.9 109.9


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, December 14, 2015

ETFs

Per Barron's this week, ETF flows stats are not reliably reported - apparently if one is shorted, it reports shares as Inflows as well - stat will be deleted from now on. Open end mutual funds and MMFs (money market) flows will still be reported.

Ugly week in stocks last week - breadth was terrible, with Advance/Declines as well as new lows to highs nearly 10 to one on the downside. The reliable McClellan Oscillator was a huge minus 80 a/o Friday, which usually foretells an UP Monday, which started down but rallied midday.

No Inflation showing in the TIPS yet, and the 2-year Treas. yield dropped back after hitting a new high the week before (see below) . Insider Selling to Buying dropped to a recent low of 8:1, with buying the more reliable number.
Here are the numbers:

Date> 12/11/2015 12/4/2015
Indices: DJIA  17265 17847
  NAZ  4933 5142
SPX  2012 2091
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.6/4.8 10.1/5.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2 1.94
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  82 69
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 24.4 14.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 386/2844 1122/2099
Weekly Net: -2458 -977
     Cumulative: 158794 161252
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 80/639 191/267
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 113/429 266/235
McClellan  Oscillator -80 -14
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -34 252
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 44.9 41.2
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 27.6 26.8
Wed. AAII  -Bull  28.5 29.5
Bear  29.9 21.2
US$-WSJ 89.7 89.7
CEOinsider selling .8:1 .20:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  56 66
US equity -ICI Fund Flows week delay  (8.0B)
MMF flows Change in $B 12.7B 17.8B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  472B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.89% NH:0.96%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 110.3 110.4



With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Saturday, December 5, 2015

POST OP UPDATES

Still recovering from knee replacement surgery, here are the latest Sentiment stats:

Date> 11/27/2015 12/4/2015
Indices: DJIA  17798 17847
  NAZ  5127 5142
SPX  2090 2091
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 5.9/2.8* 10.1/5.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.1 1.94
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  65 69
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 15.1 14.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2052/1157 1122/2099
Weekly Net: 895 -977
     Cumulative: 162229 161252
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 183/203 191/267
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 194/201 266/235
McClellan  Oscillator 27 -14
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 253 252
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 45.4 41.2
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 26.8 26.8
Wed. AAII  -Bull  32.4 29.5
Bear  26 21.2
US$-WSJ 90.8 89.7
CEOinsider selling .29:1 .20:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  69 66
US equity -ICI Fund Flows week delay  (3.5B)
MMF flows Change in $B 11.8B 17.8B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  OCT: 472B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B OCT: 1271/484/345
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.93% NH:0.96%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 110.8 110.4


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Thursday, November 12, 2015

BETTER LATE-

Away from my computer whilst I get my left knee replaced, I made it back safely with some updates to the Sentiment picture of the Stock Market:
Although everyone says there is no Inflation out there, the 2-year Treasury Note yield jumped to a  new high of .88% from 0.73%; CEO Insider selling - the guys who know their companies, tripled their selling - although that has never been a great signal, espec. at year end. 48:1 over buyers, now 160:1.
Here are the numbers:

Date> 11/6/2015 10/30/2015
Indices: DJIA  17910 17663
  NAZ  5147 5053
SPX  2099 2079
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.6/4.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.96
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  66 62
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 4.3 15.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1762/1469 1495/1724
Weekly Net: 293 -229
     Cumulative: 162109 161816
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 253/157 202/198
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 305/205 269/280
McClellan  Oscillator -25 5
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 441 412
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 46.9 43.7
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 28.1 29.2
Wed. AAII  -Bull  39 40.4
Bear  18.6 20.6
US$-WSJ 90.2 88.6
CEOinsider selling  .160:1 cons.      .48:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  70 69
US equity -ICI Fund Flows week delay  (2.5B)
MMF flows Change in $B (14.8B) 18.3B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  454B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1174/445/333B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.88% 0.73%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 109.7 110.9

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, November 2, 2015

GENERAL-IZATION

As mentioned last week, only a few "generals" led the best month in 4 year rally, in typically the worst month of the year. With global debt at extremes, and interest rates at 5,000 year lows                 ( Wealthtrack.com) it still seems prudent to hedge stocks in one's portfolio. Despite the lack of euphoria preceding a Crash, the easy money (QEs) from the Fed is worrisome at some point.
Although the best way to lose friends and influence people is to loan money and give advice, I'd say keep investing in the large Cap stocks, such as SPY and QQQs, which have outpaced their peers 3:1 recently.

Meanwhile, Sentiment shows Insider CEO's selling doubling last week's - 48:1; monthly figures show ETF withdrawals in Equities and Int'l stocks, going into MMFs. All else seems normal..


Date> 10/30/2015 10/23/2015
Indices: DJIA  17663 17646
  NAZ  5053 5031
SPX  2079 2075
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.6/4.9 9.4/4.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.96 2.09
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  62 71
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 15.1 14.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1495/1724 1933/1299
Weekly Net: -229 634
     Cumulative: 161816 162045
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 202/198 228/136
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 269/280 225/211
McClellan  Oscillator 5 39
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 412 373
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 43.7 37.5
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 29.2 31.3
Wed. AAII  -Bull  40.4 34.8
Bear  20.6 24
US$-WSJ 88.6 88
CEOinsider selling      .48:1     .26:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  69 63
US equity -ICI Fund Flows week delay  week delay 
MMF flows Change in $B 18.3B 1B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  454B 454B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1174/445/333B 1202/465/324
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.73% 0.65%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 110.9 111.3

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, October 26, 2015

BREAKOUT OR FAKEOUT

After a much-needed stock market correction in August and September, October is looking pretty good; the sharp upthrusts Thurs. and Fri. broke into current Resistance, despite overbought Breadth (Advances over Declines). Rather startling: the S&P 500 was up 1% Friday, and HALF the rise was just 3 stocks (thanks to Capitalization-weighting, not Price-weighting). Google (Alphabet), Microsoft and Amazon. Other reasons are probably short-covering of a high number of Bears, and the failure of the Gov't to issue some short term Treas. due to the debt ceiling dilemma - cash lying around.

After spending (wasting?) $$ on SPY Puts to hedge for the fearful October, I now use the TVIX which "should" rise if markets tank, although I expect the year end to be positive. Cannot be too careful with retirement $$.

Despite last week's Volatility, most Sentiment Indicators are right in the medium area - see below

Date> 10/23/2015 10/16/2015
Indices: DJIA  17646 17215
  NAZ  5031 4886
SPX  2075 2033
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.4/4.5 8.5/4.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.09 1.93
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  71 73
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14.4 15
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1933/1299 1753/1477
Weekly Net: 634 276
     Cumulative: 162045 161411
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 228/136 131/74
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 225/211 153/141
McClellan  Oscillator 39 55
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 373 187
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 37.5 36.5
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 31.3 31.2
Wed. AAII  -Bull  34.8 34.1
Bear  24 27.1
US$-WSJ 88 87
CEOinsider selling     .26:1 .106:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  63 53
US equity -ICI Fund Flows week delay  (1.4B)
MMF flows Change in $B 1B 11.0B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  454B SEPT
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1202/465/324 AUG.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.65% 0.61%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 111.3 111.3

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, October 19, 2015

ONWARD AND UPWARD

Despite October's economic and geopolitical worries, neither has pushed the stock market down, as it slowly rises through technical past Resistance levels - we are now getting into "possible" 2016 potential stock sellers. It appears that the feared October massacre might have happened in Sept. this year (TBD).

One of the least reliable sentiment signals (which should be more effective) - legal Insider Selling by CEOs, etc. was huge last week. But Buying, in May of 2009 - the start of this Bull cycle- is still the record: totally wrong.
As one can see below, most of the Sentiment Indicators have righted themselves to the Bullish (for the market) side - only the fullness of time will tell!!

Date> 10/16/2015 10/9/2015
Indices: DJIA  17215 17084
NAZ  4886 4830
SPX  2033 2014
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 8.5/4.4 9.9/5.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.93 1.94
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  73 69
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 15 17.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1753/1477 2871/371
Weekly Net: 276 2500
     Cumulative: 161411 161135
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 131/74 115/53
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 153/141 143/130
McClellan  Oscillator 55 88
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 187 -75
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 36.5 30.2
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 31.2 34.4
Wed. AAII  -Bull  34.1 37.5
Bear  27.1 28.2
US$-WSJ 94.7     na
CEOinsider selling .106:1 .76:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  53 50
US equity -ICI Fund Flows week delay  (1.3B)
MMF flows Change in $B 11.0B 3.7B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  473B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1275/509/321
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.61% 0.64%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 111.3 111.3

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, October 12, 2015

PARTY ON

Maybe our Con-gress (as opposed to Pro-gress) should stop using the term "Party" for their groups- to be taken more seriously! Kicking the bottles down the road - gov't shutdown delayed till Nov.5, Dec.11 gov't spending deadline, Repubs looking for a leader, Fed hiking rates...

  Nice snapback rally (shortcovering?) so far - even today, following the strong breadth of last week- 9:1 advances over declines, although the high McClellan Oscillator was overbought. Insider selling was large after a quiet Fall.
Here are the numbers:

Date> 10/9/2015 10/2/2015
Indices: DJIA  17084 16472
  NAZ  4830 4707
SPX  2014 1951
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.9/5.1 11.3/5.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.94 2.1
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  69 79
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17.1 20.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2871/371 1444/1805
Weekly Net: 2500 361
     Cumulative: 161135 158635
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 115/53 26/795
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 143/130 61/618
McClellan  Oscillator 88 21
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -75 -452
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 30.2 24.7
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 34.4 35.1
Wed. AAII  -Bull  37.5 28.1
Bear  28.2 39.9
US$-WSJ 87.3 88.5
CEOinsider selling .76:1     .30:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  50 31
US equity -ICI Fund Flows week delay  (7.2B)
MMF flows Change in $B 3.7B 8.4B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  473B AUG:
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1275/509/321 JUL:
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.64% 0.59%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 111.3 111.7

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Sunday, October 4, 2015

FOOL ME ONCE

Shame on you; fool me twice - shame on ME!
This Volatile stock market is getting harder and harder to figure - especially with Fundamental data coming out every day. Veteran analysts such as Laszlo Birinyi and now Jeremy Seigel say the market is going to scream upwards for the next couple of years - but it is hard to see that right now with both Technicals and Fundamentals looking so weak. Take your pick.

Mid- October is what we call a CMJ - Critical Market Juncture most years. Just look back at 2008, 2001, 2002, 1987, 1929, et.al. They always resulted in nice V-Spikes, but one never knows when the downslope ends.

Last week ended the 3rd Quarter, the worst in 4 years, with a huge rally - but it could be deceptive. Market breadth was still negative, with Advances below Declines, despite Friday's huge rally - the New Lows to Highs were amazing - on the NYSE they were 30 to 1 !!!, 10:1 on the Nasdaq.

On the positive side, short term, the newsletter surveys (Bulls and Bears) were inverted in favor of BEARS, which is a contrary sign. Weekly Volume was also large - an important Technical confirmation signal which main media seems to ignore (CNBC, Bloomie).

HERE ARE THE WEEKLY NUMBERS:

Date> 10/2/2015 9/25/2015
Indices: DJIA  16472 16314
  NAZ  4707 4686
SPX  1951 1931
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 11.3/5.4 9.6/4.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.1 2.1
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  79 72
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 20.9 23.6
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1444/1805 1057/2179
Weekly Net: 361 -1122
     Cumulative: 158635 158274
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 26/795 53/453
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 61/618 94/347
McClellan  Oscillator 21 -10
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -452 -365
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 24.7 26
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 35.1 30.2
Wed. AAII  -Bull  28.1 32.1
Bear  39.9 28.7
US$-WSJ 88.5 88.9
CEOinsider selling     .30:1 .50:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  31 36
US equity -ICI Fund Flows week delay  0
MMF flows Change in $B 8.4B 14B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  AUG: 473B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B JUL: 1275/509/321
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.59% 0.70%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 111.7 110.1



With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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