Monday, April 28, 2014

"BEAR" WITH ME

Just as President Reagan said "Trust, But Verify" , that is how the stock market feels right now. Heading into the lesser semi-annual cycle (May through October), and with the May - June period especially vulnerable (like October) in a mid-term election year, I would not be un-hedged these days. Stocks cannot seem to rise to new highs, especially the Nasdaq/tech stocks. "Legal" Insiders are still selling bigtime (see below-officers and board members at 200 sales, up from 150 the prior week).
The newsletter surveys resumed their Bullish slant (from the inverted one); gold commercial sellers still remain high, although off the peak. ETF flows and margin debt monthly figures should be out next week - in my earlier report, as I shall be off on vacation.

Here are the numbers:

Date> 4/25/2014 4/18/2014
Indices: DJIA  16361 16408
  NAZ  4075 4062
SPX  1863 1864
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 9.3/3.3 8.0/3.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.82 **2.66
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  60 57
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14.1 13.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1698/1517 2394/812
Weekly Net: 181 1582
     Cumulative: 158877 158696
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 313/49 190/86
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 165/100 94/185
McClellan  Oscillator -2 14
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 798 696
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 51.6 50.5
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 21.7 20.6
AAII  -Bull :wed. 34.5 27.2
Bear  26 34.3
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 11k/12k 8k/18k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (90k) (88k)
CEOinsider selling 48:1 11:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 200:35 150:6/15*
3-box rev Bullish%-  68 66
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay 6.4B
MMF flows Change in $B 7.3B (35.0B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  466B FEB.
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1035/397/266 FEB.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.43% 0.40%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, April 21, 2014

Hallelujah! It Has Risen

Sector totals of Insider Selling dropped precipitously to only 11 to 1 Sellers (from 68:1 the week prior); while the newly found records of "smart" Insiders - Board members, Officers dropped to 150 sales, while 10% share holders  reversed to more Buyers than Sellers! Per my Sentiment blog: http://mktsentiment.blogspot.com, MMFs (Money Markets) are shedding dollars again and Equity funds are gradually picking up, per ICI. The AAII Bears inverted over the Bulls again - a Bullish contrarian sign

- although the Investors Intell. - Wire house advisory letters- were still complacent. In my studies of the two for my CMT designation on Sentiment, I found the AAII more accurate- from a Contrary point of view.  

Here are the numbers:

Date> 4/18/2014 4/11/2014
Indices: DJIA  16408 16026
  NAZ  4062 3999
SPX  1864 1815
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 8.0/3.0 11.3/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish **2.66 2.9
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  57 61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.4 17
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2394/812 975/2241
Weekly Net: 1582 -1266
     Cumulative: 158696 157114
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 190/86 134/78
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 94/185 79/157
McClellan  Oscillator 14 -48
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 696 717
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 50.5 54.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 20.6 18.6
AAII  -Bull :wed. 27.2 28.5
Bear  34.3 34.1
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 8k/18k 12k/20k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (88k) (102k)
CEOinsider selling 11:1 68:1?
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 150:6/15* 180:15
3-box rev Bullish%-  66 66
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay 2.1B
MMF flows Change in $B (35.0B) (17.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  FEB. 466B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B FEB. 1035/397/266
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.40% 0.36%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, April 14, 2014

RED MOON AT NIGHT

To paraphrase the wayfarers' saying:  Red Sky At  Night- Sailors' Delight, weird things happen in April and October. These are moon-based events - eclipses every 6 months, when we get earthquakes, market crashes. With the human body a high % liquid, the moon has a gravity pull - hence "lunatic".
Maybe this will precipitate a much-needed correction in the stock market, especially Nas and tech stocks.
Not much new in the Sentiment area, although Insider Selling by Industry group (although several n/as in there) actually doubled from the week before - 34 to 68 to 1. My favorite predictor, the McClellan Oscillator did fall to -48, just two points away from my usual BUY signal of minus 50 - hence the rally today!
Here are the numbers:

Date> 4/11/2014 4/4/2014
Indices: DJIA  16026 16412
  NAZ  3999 4127
SPX  1815 1865
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 11.3/3.9 10.9/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.9 3.03
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  61 56
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17 13.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 975/2241 2130/1063
Weekly Net: -1266 1067
     Cumulative: 157114 158380
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 134/78 389/30
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 79/157 258/103
McClellan  Oscillator -48 -10
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 717 837
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 54.6 50.5
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 18.6 18.6
AAII  -Bull :wed. 28.5 35.4
Bear  34.1 26.8
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 12k/20k 9k/21k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (102k) (114k)
CEOinsider selling 68:1? 34:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 180:15 175:30
3-box rev Bullish%-  66 74
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay .9B
MMF flows Change in $B (17.7B) (13.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  466B FEB.
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1035/397/266 FEB.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.36% 0.42%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, April 7, 2014

Weak Week

There is a basic Technical rule that historically !!! the last day and the first four days of the month are positive for the market, as people get paid, especially around Income tax time. This was true...until Friday. Weekly Sentiment Indicators looked fairly benign for the week - surveys take place Tues. and Wed.- although the relative extremes were still high - Insider Selling (Board,Officers) since December; margin interest a new record, although low rates and the Fed Put option help this ongoing fact.

High on the radar is the Presidential four-year cycle, with 2014 being the mid-election year, where markets have dipped a minimum of 9% without fail for several decades. Barron's had an article that especially May and (even worse) June proved the "Sell in May" adage. The past two days seem to verify players coming in early, like HFTs!

Although weekly breadth (hurt by Friday) remained strong, low VIX and high Nas Volume warned.

Here are the numbers (more at: http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard)


Date> 4/4/2014 3/28/2014
Indices: DJIA  16412 16323
  NAZ  4127 4155
SPX  1865 1857
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 10.9/3.6 11.4/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 3.03 3.17
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  56 61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.9 14.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2130/1063 1485/1713
Weekly Net: 1067 -228
     Cumulative: 158380 157313
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 389/30 213/64
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 258/103 161/110
McClellan  Oscillator -10 -10
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 837 768
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 50.5 54.7
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 18.6 17.5
AAII  -Bull :wed. 35.4 31.2
Bear  26.8 28.6
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 9k/21k 7k/24k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (114k) (127k)
CEOinsider selling 34:1 25:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 175:30 200:40
3-box rev Bullish%-  74 72
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (.2B)
MMF flows Change in $B (13.2B) (3.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  FEB. 466B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B FEB. 1035/397/266
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.42% 0.45%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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