Wednesday, January 29, 2014

BELATED BLOG

Here is the current Sentiment data, delayed by the PC's four day stay in its Hospital trying (unsuccessfully) for a fix. Not the best time to disconnect - after 500 points in 2 days.

The CBOE put/call ratio and McClellan Oscillator intimated a Buy signal for Monday, as did the VIX rising 30%. All else remains the same:



Date>
1/24/2014 1/17/2014
Indices: DJIA  15879 16458
  NAZ  4128 4197

SPX  1790 1838
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 8.6/3.1 10.6/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.77 2.94
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  61 54
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 18.14 12.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1088/2130 1700/1493
Weekly Net:
-1042 207
     Cumulative: 154105 155147
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 366/91 455/63
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 412/59 481/59
McClellan  Oscillator -31 16
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 622 584
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 57.6 56.1
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 15.1 15.3

AAII  -Bull :wed. 38.1 39

Bear  23.8 21.5
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 7/21k 3/28k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (46k) (45k)
CEOinsider selling 70:1 108:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 200:70 130:15*
3-box rev Bullish%-  79 81
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay WeekDelay
MMF flows Change in $B 6.4B (14B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
424B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B
999/395/248
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.35% 0.38%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Tuesday, January 21, 2014

JANUARY SALES

Although most Sentiment Indicators are coming off extreme highs, nearly all have regressed to the mean last week. Still exceptionally high are the Insider Sales of company stocks, especially the Board and Officers contingent, with over ninety percent of these from exercised stock options (year end).
Despite market weakness, breadth remains strong, via A/D and New Highs to Lows.

Here are the numbers:


Date>
1/17/2014 1/10/2014
Indices: DJIA  16458 16437
  NAZ  4197 4174

SPX  1838 1842
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 10.6/3.6 11.1/3.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.94 3.17
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  54 51
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.4 12.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1700/1493 2058/1147
Weekly Net:
207 911
     Cumulative: 155147 154940
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 455/63 418/45
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 481/59 470/51
McClellan  Oscillator 16 33
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 584 479
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 56.1 60.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 15.3 15.2

AAII  -Bull :wed. 39 43.6

Bear  21.5 25
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 3/28k 4/32k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (45k) (42k)
CEOinsider selling 108:1 106:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 130:15* 230:6
3-box rev Bullish%-  81 82
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (3.4B)
MMF flows Change in $B (14B) (4.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  424B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 999/395/248 NOV.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.38% 0.39%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, January 13, 2014

What's Your Deal?

The phrase of the week is from Pete Carroll, then Coach of the USC Trojans to Jim Harbaugh, Stanford Coach, when he seemed to run up the score of a game before each of them "turned" Pro. Next Sunday should be quite a game.

In other Sentiment news, most Indicators backed off from their Extreme  highs last week, with a couple exceptions. Breadth, as measured by A/D (advance and declines) were strong, especially the new highs to lows - both NYSE and NAS 10:1. And the latter's Volume to NYSE hit a RECORD HIGH of 3.17:1 - very speculative!

Investors Intelligence Bulls were still over 60%, and the Insider Selling continues at a record pace, both the 10% stock owners and the Officers/Board that I am starting to track a la finviz.com.

More commentary and investment meetups can be found at: 
http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Here are the numbers:

 

Date>
1/10/2014 1/3/2014
Indices: DJIA  16437 16469
  NAZ  4174 4131

SPX  1842 1831
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 11.1/3.5 6.1/2.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 3.17 2.77
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  51 52
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.1 13.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2058/1147 1530/1582
Weekly Net:
911 -52
     Cumulative: 154940 154029
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 418/45 395/101
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 470/51 387/38
McClellan  Oscillator 33 29
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 479 361
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 60.6 61.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 15.2 15.2

AAII  -Bull :wed. 43.6 43.1

Bear  25 29.3
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 4/32k N/A-hol.
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (42k) N/A-hol.
CEOinsider selling 106:1 208:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 230:6 300s:1s
3-box rev Bullish%-  82 83
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 3.3B .25B
MMF flows Change in $B (4.2B) 24B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
424B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B NOV. 999/395/248
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.39% 0.40%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, January 6, 2014

STALL SPEED

And the Sentiment Indicators continue to get more Extreme! Margin Debt,at absurd low interest rate levels, continues to rise, as record Insider Sellers ( Officers and Board members) dump shares. 2013 saw records (or near-) in stock buybacks, new market highs, etc.

More info at: 


once one gets through the popups!

Here are the Sentiment numbers for last week, including the monthly ETF flows - Equity, Int'l, and Bonds.

 

Date>
1/3/2014 12/27/2013
Indices: DJIA  16469 16478
  NAZ  4131 4156

SPX  1831 1841
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 6.1/2.2 5.0/1.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.77 2.94
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  52 52
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.8 12.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1530/1582 2164/1028
Weekly Net:
-52 1136
     Cumulative: 154029 154081
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 395/101 533/121
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 387/38 556/44
McClellan  Oscillator 29 43
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 361 233
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 61.6 59.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 15.2 14.1

AAII  -Bull :wed. 43.1 55.1

Bear  29.3 18.5
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k N/A-hol. n/a
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 N/A-hol.
CEOinsider selling 208:1 224:1hugest
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 300s:1s
3-box rev Bullish%-  83 82
US equity -ICI Fund Flows .25B WeekDelay
MMF flows Change in $B 24B 22.1B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  424B 1 month
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 999/395/248 NOV.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.40% 0.40%


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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