Monday, October 26, 2015

BREAKOUT OR FAKEOUT

After a much-needed stock market correction in August and September, October is looking pretty good; the sharp upthrusts Thurs. and Fri. broke into current Resistance, despite overbought Breadth (Advances over Declines). Rather startling: the S&P 500 was up 1% Friday, and HALF the rise was just 3 stocks (thanks to Capitalization-weighting, not Price-weighting). Google (Alphabet), Microsoft and Amazon. Other reasons are probably short-covering of a high number of Bears, and the failure of the Gov't to issue some short term Treas. due to the debt ceiling dilemma - cash lying around.

After spending (wasting?) $$ on SPY Puts to hedge for the fearful October, I now use the TVIX which "should" rise if markets tank, although I expect the year end to be positive. Cannot be too careful with retirement $$.

Despite last week's Volatility, most Sentiment Indicators are right in the medium area - see below

Date> 10/23/2015 10/16/2015
Indices: DJIA  17646 17215
  NAZ  5031 4886
SPX  2075 2033
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.4/4.5 8.5/4.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.09 1.93
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  71 73
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14.4 15
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1933/1299 1753/1477
Weekly Net: 634 276
     Cumulative: 162045 161411
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 228/136 131/74
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 225/211 153/141
McClellan  Oscillator 39 55
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 373 187
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 37.5 36.5
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 31.3 31.2
Wed. AAII  -Bull  34.8 34.1
Bear  24 27.1
US$-WSJ 88 87
CEOinsider selling     .26:1 .106:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  63 53
US equity -ICI Fund Flows week delay  (1.4B)
MMF flows Change in $B 1B 11.0B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  454B SEPT
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1202/465/324 AUG.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.65% 0.61%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 111.3 111.3

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, October 19, 2015

ONWARD AND UPWARD

Despite October's economic and geopolitical worries, neither has pushed the stock market down, as it slowly rises through technical past Resistance levels - we are now getting into "possible" 2016 potential stock sellers. It appears that the feared October massacre might have happened in Sept. this year (TBD).

One of the least reliable sentiment signals (which should be more effective) - legal Insider Selling by CEOs, etc. was huge last week. But Buying, in May of 2009 - the start of this Bull cycle- is still the record: totally wrong.
As one can see below, most of the Sentiment Indicators have righted themselves to the Bullish (for the market) side - only the fullness of time will tell!!

Date> 10/16/2015 10/9/2015
Indices: DJIA  17215 17084
NAZ  4886 4830
SPX  2033 2014
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 8.5/4.4 9.9/5.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.93 1.94
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  73 69
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 15 17.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1753/1477 2871/371
Weekly Net: 276 2500
     Cumulative: 161411 161135
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 131/74 115/53
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 153/141 143/130
McClellan  Oscillator 55 88
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 187 -75
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 36.5 30.2
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 31.2 34.4
Wed. AAII  -Bull  34.1 37.5
Bear  27.1 28.2
US$-WSJ 94.7     na
CEOinsider selling .106:1 .76:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  53 50
US equity -ICI Fund Flows week delay  (1.3B)
MMF flows Change in $B 11.0B 3.7B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  473B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1275/509/321
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.61% 0.64%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 111.3 111.3

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, October 12, 2015

PARTY ON

Maybe our Con-gress (as opposed to Pro-gress) should stop using the term "Party" for their groups- to be taken more seriously! Kicking the bottles down the road - gov't shutdown delayed till Nov.5, Dec.11 gov't spending deadline, Repubs looking for a leader, Fed hiking rates...

  Nice snapback rally (shortcovering?) so far - even today, following the strong breadth of last week- 9:1 advances over declines, although the high McClellan Oscillator was overbought. Insider selling was large after a quiet Fall.
Here are the numbers:

Date> 10/9/2015 10/2/2015
Indices: DJIA  17084 16472
  NAZ  4830 4707
SPX  2014 1951
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.9/5.1 11.3/5.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.94 2.1
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  69 79
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17.1 20.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2871/371 1444/1805
Weekly Net: 2500 361
     Cumulative: 161135 158635
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 115/53 26/795
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 143/130 61/618
McClellan  Oscillator 88 21
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -75 -452
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 30.2 24.7
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 34.4 35.1
Wed. AAII  -Bull  37.5 28.1
Bear  28.2 39.9
US$-WSJ 87.3 88.5
CEOinsider selling .76:1     .30:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  50 31
US equity -ICI Fund Flows week delay  (7.2B)
MMF flows Change in $B 3.7B 8.4B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  473B AUG:
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1275/509/321 JUL:
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.64% 0.59%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 111.3 111.7

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Sunday, October 4, 2015

FOOL ME ONCE

Shame on you; fool me twice - shame on ME!
This Volatile stock market is getting harder and harder to figure - especially with Fundamental data coming out every day. Veteran analysts such as Laszlo Birinyi and now Jeremy Seigel say the market is going to scream upwards for the next couple of years - but it is hard to see that right now with both Technicals and Fundamentals looking so weak. Take your pick.

Mid- October is what we call a CMJ - Critical Market Juncture most years. Just look back at 2008, 2001, 2002, 1987, 1929, et.al. They always resulted in nice V-Spikes, but one never knows when the downslope ends.

Last week ended the 3rd Quarter, the worst in 4 years, with a huge rally - but it could be deceptive. Market breadth was still negative, with Advances below Declines, despite Friday's huge rally - the New Lows to Highs were amazing - on the NYSE they were 30 to 1 !!!, 10:1 on the Nasdaq.

On the positive side, short term, the newsletter surveys (Bulls and Bears) were inverted in favor of BEARS, which is a contrary sign. Weekly Volume was also large - an important Technical confirmation signal which main media seems to ignore (CNBC, Bloomie).

HERE ARE THE WEEKLY NUMBERS:

Date> 10/2/2015 9/25/2015
Indices: DJIA  16472 16314
  NAZ  4707 4686
SPX  1951 1931
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 11.3/5.4 9.6/4.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.1 2.1
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  79 72
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 20.9 23.6
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1444/1805 1057/2179
Weekly Net: 361 -1122
     Cumulative: 158635 158274
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 26/795 53/453
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 61/618 94/347
McClellan  Oscillator 21 -10
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -452 -365
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 24.7 26
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 35.1 30.2
Wed. AAII  -Bull  28.1 32.1
Bear  39.9 28.7
US$-WSJ 88.5 88.9
CEOinsider selling     .30:1 .50:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  31 36
US equity -ICI Fund Flows week delay  0
MMF flows Change in $B 8.4B 14B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  AUG: 473B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B JUL: 1275/509/321
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.59% 0.70%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 111.7 110.1



With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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