Monday, September 28, 2009

SEPTEMBER SONG:

Back from vacation (briefly), but off again later this week. The blogsite is being tweaked to offer better customer-friendly viewing, so please bear with us. Past and future suggestions welcome.

After a 3-day and away correction the Bull seems to be on track as contrary opinion outvoted the media punsters about a mensis horribilis.

The McClellan Oscillator oscillated between a plus 45 (heralding the correction last week) to a negative 43 this week - an unusual swing. Mutual fund flows were still flat, with most money coming out of MMFs into Bonds in huge amounts. Longer term, there was a huge number of Insider Selling by key employes last week: 54:1. Bullish per cent is still toppy at record highs, Bulls/Bears ratios are mixed, with the AAII reversing to the Bear majority last week. And new highs were tremendous at 635 vs. 5 new lows - either a sign of strong breadth, or a toppy indication. Time will tell.

Here are the numbers:


MktSentiment
9/25/2009
Prev. Week
5Yr. HI
5Yr. LOW





DJIA:
9665
9783
14093
6626
Nasdaq:
2090
2126
2810
1114
S&P500:
1044
1065
1561
683
CBOE Eq.




  put/call:
61
53
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX:
25.6
23.6
90
8.8
McClellan Osc:
-43
45
108
-100
McClelSum:
1426
1436
1568
-1514
Newsletter Surveys




Inv.Intel



22.21
Bull:
46.7
47.8
63
22.21
Bear:
24.4
24.4
54.4
16
AAII-Bull/Bear:
39.1/44.6
42.0/40.0
n/a

Nova/Ursa:




MutualFunds:
0.86
0.89
2.2
0.56
Baltic Dry Index:
2163
2390
11700
663
Bullish%:
86
87
88
2
Insider corporate




sellers:
54:1
n/a
108:1
2.4:1
Mutual Fund Inflows:
-.3B
.8B


ETF Inflows:
1.5B
4B


VIX Volatility:
-4
-10
12
-22
VIX 1-month future:
-16
-18
2
-18
VIX 5-month future:
-4
-5
8
-7











www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.
Readers can request being added to an e-mail distribution list alert by sending address to leonbrnt@aol.com without fear of selling their names to spammers or contracting viruses.
 

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Thursday, September 17, 2009

EARLY BLOG:

Just like Jesse Livermore, when things get boring I take off to a seaside resort for a week off, so this issue will be short and early. Indicators remain overbought, especially the Bullish % at a near record 87, but breadth and sentiment do not indicate any cessation of the upside action. Possibly post-quad-witching next week will show some pause, but as Jason Trennert, the palindromic forecaster, says, more inflows are into bond funds than equity - no time for a top.

Here are Thursday's results:



MktSentiment
9/17/2009
Prev. Week
5Yr.HI
LOW





DJIA
9783
9605
14093
6626
Nasdaq
2126
2080
2810
1114
S&P500
1065
1042
1561
683
CBOE Eq.




  put/call
53
60
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX
23.6
24.1
90
8.8
McClellan Osc
45
35
108
-100
McClelSum
1436
1228
1568
-1514
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel
22.21
Bull
47.8
48.3
63
22.21
Bear
24.4
23.6
54.4
16
AAII-Bull/Bear
42.0/40.0
37.3/44.0
n/a
Nova/Ursa
MutualFunds
0.89
0.87
2.2
0.56
Baltic Dry Index
2390
2468
11700
663
Bullish%
87
84
88
2
Insider corporate
sellers
n/a
23:1
108:1
2.4:1
Mutual Fund Inflows
.8B
-.5B
ETF Inflows
.4B
-3.7B
VIX Volatility
-10
12
-22
VIX 1-month future
-18
2
-18
VIX 5-month future
-3
8
-7








www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.
Readers can request being added to an e-mail distribution list alert by sending address to leonbrnt@aol.com without fear of selling their names to spammers or contracting viruses.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


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Monday, September 14, 2009

"DOT COM" RECOVERY? www:

Two Vs make a W, but ex-Merrill economist Dave Rosenberg thinks the Recovery will be a series of w's, and a V Recovery has about a zero chance due to Deflation at the end of a 25-year Credit cycle. He says there are 3 components of Inflation: Wages, Credit and Rents, all of which are headed downward.
 
Recently I've been following the VIX and its 1- and 5-month futures to see if there is a predictive correlation; still too early,but last week the 1-month hit a new % low (lower VIX usually means a calmer (UP market).Starting this week I shall add it to the Indicators and let readers be the judge.

Breadth is very strong (Advance/ Decline and New Highs), but in a rather overbought zone - Bullish % at 84, McClellan Summation in the +1200s.

Next week's blog will be abbreviated and early, due to a Contrarian vacation after the crowds have left the California seashores.


Here are the numbers from last week:
 

MktSentiment
9/11/2009
Prev. Week
5Yr.HI
LOW





DJIA
9605
9441
14093
6626
Nasdaq
2080
2018
2810
1114
S&P500
1042
1016
1561
683
CBOE Eq.




  put/call
60
64
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX
24.1
25.3
90
8.8
McClellan Osc
35
-11
108
-100
McClelSum
1228
1114
1568
-1514
Newsletter Surveys:




Inv.Intel



22.21
Bull
48.3
50.6
63
22.21
Bear
23.6
24.1
54.4
16
AAII-Bull/Bear
37.3/44.0
38.0/38.0
n/a

Nova/Ursa




MutualFunds
0.87
1.04
2.2
0.56
Baltic Dry Index
2468
2415
11700
663
Bullish%-
84
81
88
2
*Insider corporate




sellers
n/a
108:1
2.4:1

Mutual Fund Inflows
-.5B
-1.1B


ETF Inflows
.4B
-3.7B


VIX Volatility
-12

12
-22
VIX 1-month future
-18

2
-18
VIX 5-month future
-3

8
-7


















www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.
Readers can request being added to an e-mail distribution list alert by sending address to leonbrnt@aol.com without fear of selling their names to spammers or contracting viruses.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, September 7, 2009

LABOR PAINS:

As investors breathlessly await the opening of the post-Labor Day trading, with the unholy combination of Congress and large investors returning to work, despite all the media hoopla about the month of September, last year's Lehman disaster and 9/11, most Sentiment Indicators do seem too bullish on the market to be bullish for the market! Usually media hype is the KOD (Kiss Of Death) to a contrarian (that's why they called it a medium!).

Stretched high are the Bullish % (stocks on a BUY signal) still over 80; Inv.Intell. Bulls, still over 50 -although the AAII ratio is 38:38. Breadth-wise, although the New Highs to Lows is huge, the McClellan charts are neutral. Mutual Fund flows turned to Outflows last week, but a new season, just as in football, begins next week. 


One surprising indicator that caught this writer's attention was the high CEO/Insider selling last week, at 29:1, the highest since August 7, a week before a selloff. Looking back I noticed high readings before just about all minor selloffs (within a downtrend) at dates: 7/31/09; 5/8/09; 4/17/09 - huge in the midst of a large rally; in '08 9/18 , 6/6, and 4/18 presaged at least cessations of the upmove, as did 10/10/07 and 12/14/07. But it sure did miss the big selloff in the first past of this year!!! 


Here are the stats: 




MktSentiment
9/04/2009
Prev. Week
5 Year HI
5 Year LOW





DJIA:
9441
9544
14093
6626
Nasdaq:

2018
2028
2810
1114
S&P 500:

1016
1028
1561
683
CBOE Eq. put/call:
64
58
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX:

25.3
24.3
90
8.8
McClellan Osc:
-11
-3
108
-100
McClellan Sum:

1114
1345
1568
-1514
Newsletter Surveys




Investors Intel.




Bull:

50.6
51.5
63
22.2
Bear:

24.1
19.8
54.4
16
AAII




Bull:
38.0
34.0
n/a

Bear:
38.0
48.5
n/a

Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:

1.04
0.95
2.2
0.56
Baltic Dry Index:
2415
2421
11700
663
Bullish %:
81
83
88
2
Insider Corporate Sellers:
29:1
21:1
108:1
2.4:1
Mutual Fund Inflows:
-1.1B
0.4B


ETF Inflows:
-5B
3.8B





www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column. 


Readers can request being added to an e-mail distribution list alert by sending address to leonbrnt@aol.com without fear of selling their names to spammers or contracting viruses.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark