Monday, April 16, 2012


A recent iteration of the May-Nov. rule (6-month cycle) showed if a $100 were invested in the May cycle, the profit since shortly after WWII would be just under $10,000 - if the complement cycle were used to invest, the result would be $99 ( a $1 loss). Something to think about these days - a reason to look into the DITM covered call strategy, with the Weapons of Math Destruction looming!
As expected, investors  (those few who remain after the 70% artificial intelligence crowd gets through with them) got a bit defensive in attitude: the CBOE Equity put/call ratio rose from 60 to 66 the past week; AAII Bears rose hugely from 27% to 41%! Bulls dropped 10 points to 28.
  Dollars continue to exit Money Market Funds (no surprise there) but also from equity funds. Most are still going into bonds, some ETFs. Today's DJIA rally is no surprise after the selloff drove the McClellan Oscillator down to -46 -just off my -50 delimiter.
Here are the weekly numbers:

4/13/2012 4/5/2012
Indices: DJIA  12849 13060
  NAZ  3011 3080

SPX  1370 1398
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 7.7/4.0 6.9/3.1
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.93 2.23
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  66 60
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 19.6 16.7

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 915/2260 1139/1999

Weekly Net: -1345 -860

     Cumulative: 131500 132845
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 111/109 246/68
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 113/142 197/107
McClellan  Oscillator -46 -25
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 231 540
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 48.4 52.7
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 21.5 21.5

AAII  -Bull :wed. 28.1 38.2

Bear  41.6 27.8
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 2/(1) .6/2
CEOinsider selling 42:1 44:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 928 931
3-box rev Bullish%-  sell76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (4.3B)
MMF flows Change in $B (6.1B) (15.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly FEB..

ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ FEB..

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.27% 0.32%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset-CommHedg 5.3 5.2

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Zero (IN)Tolerance

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