CEO SELLOFF:

The headline number this week is the (legal) Insider Selling by key officers of corporations: 92:1 is higher than the late October 2011 selloff, where it was only 60:1. Other high numbers include the Bullish %, at 85  ( multi-year high is 88).
Coming off extremes and reverting to the mean are the newsletter surveys (AAII and I.I.), large and small traders' commitments ( large short, small traders long); although Volume remains light, the NASD to NYSE still shows speculation. NYSE new highs to lows are down slightly - 336 to 7 from 362 to 7 (same 7?). Short term bullish is the high CBOE put/call ratio, as traders hedge.
Here are the numbers for last week:

Date>		2/24/2012	2/17/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12982	12949
	NAZ	2963	2951
	SPX	1365	1361
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	6.9/2.9	9.4/3.9
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.38	2.41
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	66	59
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	17.3	17.8
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	1790/1343	2185/972
	Weekly Net:	447	1213
	Cumulative:	133581	133134
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	336/7	362/7
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	230/44	265/44
McClellan	Oscillator	-6	-3
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	1231	1278
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	51.1	54.8
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	26.6	25.8
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	43.7	42.7
	Bear	27.5	26.6
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(8)/30	(7)/32
CEOinsider	selling	91:1	32:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	706	723
3-box rev	Bullish%-	85	84
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	0
MMF flows	Change in $B	6.2B	2.9B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.		290B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.31%	0.30%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.08	5.01….

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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CEO SELLOFF:

EURO OR DRACHMA? A GREEK TRAGEDY:

Greek fishermen have resorted to barter, using products of the sea for currency - it's called "Octupi" the Agora, or "squid" pro quo! (sorry about that).
Although we have a holiday here in the U.S., Papa-Demos (Father of the People) must address the concerns of those revolting peasants. I learned many years ago to "Watch what they DO, not what they SAY!"  How much an inevitable default is factored into our market is TBD.
Meanwhile, several Sentiment/Breadth Indicators remain near recent highs, just as the markets do: the NASDAQ to NYSE Volume ratio, for one - meaning more speculation. As with most all Indicators, the public is right until the extreme, when it isn't. My cumulative Adv./Decl. number is at a record high, although the McClellan Oscillator is @ zero. The Investment Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio widened more, but still off the record. Bullish per cent, at 84, is almost at the record 88 -stocks on a BUY signal. Over the past month the margin debt has increased 10%, the same % as the decrease in NYSE short interest (covering).

At this weekend's S.F. Option meeting I had a request to resume my e-mail alert to interested persons about my blog - if you'd prefer to be delisted from this "spamming", please let me know - I can take it.
Here are the numbers:

Date>		2/17/2012	2/10/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12949	12801
	NAZ	2951	2903
	SPX	1361	1342
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	9.4/3.9	9.3/3.7
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.41	2.51
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	59	60
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	17.8	20.8
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	2185/972	1254/1900
	Weekly Net:	1213	-646
	Cumulative:	133134	131921
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	362/7	374/15
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	265/44	263/35
McClellan	Oscillator	-3	-17
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	1278	1325
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	54.8	52.1
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	25.8	28.7
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	42.7	51.6
	Bear	26.6	20.2
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(7)/32	(13)/41
CEOinsider	selling	32:1	55:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	723	695
3-box rev	Bullish%-	84	83
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 Wk lag	1.9B
MMF flows	Change in $B	2.9B	(.8B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.	290B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.30%	0.28%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg		5.01.........	4.97M

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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EURO OR DRACHMA? A GREEK TRAGEDY:

WHAT, ME WORRY?:

Thanks to Friday's selloff, the week past was basically "unch". But worry clouds still abound. Indicators such as McClellan Oscillator, NYSE cum.A/D, and VIX came off extremes, while others cause concern: CEO Insider (legal) selling was a whopping 55:1; NASD to NYSE Volume was a record 2.51.One Technician on TV last week advised using Bollinger Bands on this ratio. NYSE New Lows for the week were only 15, versus 374 NHs.
Newsletter Bulls climbed higher, while the AAII Bears dropped from 25% to 20%. Bullish % is now 83% - only 5 points off its multi-year high. A reader scooped Barron's to tell me the Baltic Dry Index, which has been posting new lows lately was apparently caused by overbuilding of ships, not the global economy signal, which should be corrected shortly.
Here are the numbers:

Date>		2/10/2012	2/3/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12801	12862
	NAZ	2903	2905
	SPX	1342	1344
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	9.3/3.7	9.6/4.4
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.51	2.18
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	60	60
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	20.8	17.1
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	1254/1900	2496/665
	Weekly Net:	-646	1831
	Cumulative:	131921	132567
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	374/15	526/32
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	263/35	341/39
McClellan	Oscillator	-17	57
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	1325	1236
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	52.1	48.9
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	28.7	29.8
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	51.6	43.8
	Bear	20.2	25.1
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(13)/41	(12)/42
CEOinsider	selling	55:1	26:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	695	651
3-box rev	Bullish%-	83	82
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(1.8B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(.8B)	(21B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.28%	0.24%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	4.97M	4.89

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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WHAT, ME WORRY?:

TOIL AND TRUBBLE:

Recent Sentiment (and breadth) data has shown the most remarkable extremes that I can ever remember, in the 7 years or more of writing this blog! Let me count the ways:
The DJIA and S&P 500 hit all time record point gains for a January;  the NASDAQ reached an 11-year high last week. The 2011 high for the SPX was 1365 - it closed Friday at 1344.

My cumulative Advance/Decline indicator continues to make new all time highs; NAZ Volume to NYSE indicates speculation; the VIX is at a relative extreme low of 17.
For only the second time in many months equity flows have increased into mutual funds, and MMF outflows were a huge $21B. Talking heads are glowing with a global economic recovery, but China is slowing, as is Europe, and the Baltic Dry Index hit a multi-year low last week at 651 -cut in half from its high.
Usually reliable Bullish % and McClellan Oscillator are also at high levels - large commodity traders are shorting, while small traders are long the SPX futures. Insider (CEO) Selling is fairly but consistently high in recent weeks. Finally, AAII Bears are coming of near record "teen" lows.
Here are the numbers:

Date>		2/3/2012	1/27/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12862	12660
	NAZ	2905	2816
	SPX	1344	1316
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	4.4/9.6	..4.0/9.1
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.18	2.28
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	60	62
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	17.1	18.5
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	2496/665	2251/905
	Weekly Net:	1831	1346
	Cumulative:	132567	130736
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	526/32	367/25
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	341/39	200/39
McClellan	Oscillator	57	47
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	1236	1050
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	48.9	50
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	29.8	28.7
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	43.8	48.4
	Bear	25.1	18.9
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(12)/42	(2)/16
CEOinsider	selling	26:1	28:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	651	753
3-box rev	Bullish%-	82	80
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	.8B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(21B)	(15B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.		267B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.		618/245/184
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.24%	0.22%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	4.89	4.82

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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TOIL AND TRUBBLE:

REVERSAL OF FORTUNE:

After a very insignificant increase in Equity Fund flows the previous week, outflows returned last week to the norm from last April. The latest monthly data of ETFs show almost no change in flows from stocks, Int'l, or bonds.
Toppiness still abounds, in speculative Volume (NASD/NYSE), McClellan Oscillator, Bullish %, and the number of Bears in both the AAII and Inv.Intell. Even Barron's cover story was about defensive strategies, using dividend stocks, and the option column is still preaching covered calls.The January Barometer and Effect are both positive, but February is usually not one of the better months - especially after a 20% run up from Oct. (5% this year alone).

Date>		1/27/2012	1/20/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12660	12720
	NAZ	2816	2786
	SPX	1316	1315
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs)	4.0/9.1	3.3/7.8
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.28	2.36
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	62	52
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	18.5	18.3
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	2251/905	2414/730
	Weekly Net:	1346	1684
	Cumulative:	130736	129390
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	367/25	292/36
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	200/39	166/43
McClellan	Oscillator	47	52
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	1050	810
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	50	50
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	28.7	29.8
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	48.4	47.2
	Bear	18.9	23.6
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(2)/16	(4)/19
CEOinsider	selling	28:1	25:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	753	862
3-box rev	Bullish%-	80	78
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	(.8B)	1 wk lag
MMF flows	Change in $B	(15B)	(13B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.	267B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.	618/245/184
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.22%	0.25%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	4.82	4.89M

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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REVERSAL OF FORTUNE:

ORANGE ALERT:

Interesting week for a rather calm stock market: the S&P500 broke up through the 1300 level to a double top from last July - Larry McMillan states that it is 3 Std Deviations above its 20-day MA, and just as Oct and Apr.'11 and Feb.'07, the OEX put/call Volume ratio was 2:1. The Baltic Dry Index broke below 1000 for the first time in 3 years, a global economic indicator. My cumulative A/D total broke to a new all-time high (overbought); the NASD to NYSE Volume (speculative) also hit a new high.US equity fund flows reversed to inflows for the first time since April 22 of last year -a multi-year high. As seen below, most indicators are Bearish FOR the markets.

Date>		1/20/2012	1/13/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12720	..12422
	NAZ	2786	..2710
	SPX	1315	1289
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs)	3.3/7.8	3.9/8.7
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.36	2.23
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	52	59
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	18.3	20.9
	Advance/Dec-NYSE	2414/730	2161/988
	Weekly Net:	1684	1173
	Cumulative:	129390	127706
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	292/36	277/50
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	166/43	153/89
McClellan	Oscillator	52	26
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	810	618
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	50	51.1
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	29.8	29.8
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	47.2	49.1
	Bear	23.6	17.2
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(4)/19	(9)/21
CEOinsider	selling	25:1	20:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	862	1105
3-box rev	Bullish%-	78	73
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	.75B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(13B)	11B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.25%	0.23%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	4.89M	4.96M

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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ORANGE ALERT:

RALPH CLARK - R.I.P:

This column is dedicated to a good friend, neighbor, and fellow investor, who passed away late last week from ALS at 81. Ralph Clark was a student of investing, at GGU and briefly with the San Francisco Bay Area Options Group. Before passing, he asked me to dispose of nearly 50 quality investment books which I intend to do at the upcoming Options monthly meeting this Saturday morning at Fort Mason, where I and other speakers will explain our experiences with my DITM investment strategy.
Last week's Sentiment numbers saw some toppy, overbought readings, creating a caution signal: my Volume ratio - NASD/NYSE is approaching a high (speculative) reading. Although only testing for a short time (2011), these levels were at previous tops in April 6, May 2, and July 22. My cum. Volume of Adv./Dec. is also toppy, going back to April. Commitment of Traders show Large Specs on the S&P going negative vs. positive for Small Specs. Most dramatic is the AAII and Inv.Intell. Bull/Bear ratios. Numbers appear below:

Date>		1/13/2012	1/6/2012
Indices:	DJIA	..12422	..12359
	NAZ	..2710	..2674
	SPX	1289	1277
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs)	3.9/8.7	3.2/6.9
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.23	2.16
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	59	63
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	20.9	20.6
	Advance/Dec-NYSE	2161/988	2213/947
	Weekly Net:	1173	1266
	Cumulative:	127706	126533
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	277/50	305/27
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	153/89	118/81
McClellan	Oscillator	26	29
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	618	395
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	51.1	49.5
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	29.8	30.5
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	49.1	48.9
	Bear	17.2	17.2
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	21/(9)	12/5.
CEOinsider	selling	20:1	30:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	1105	1426
3-box rev	Bullish%-	73	68
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(7B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	11B	(1.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.23%	0.27%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	4.96M	5.13M

  

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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RALPH CLARK - R.I.P: