Monday, February 6, 2012


Recent Sentiment (and breadth) data has shown the most remarkable extremes that I can ever remember, in the 7 years or more of writing this blog! Let me count the ways:
The DJIA and S&P 500 hit all time record point gains for a January;  the NASDAQ reached an 11-year high last week. The 2011 high for the SPX was 1365 - it closed Friday at 1344.

My cumulative Advance/Decline indicator continues to make new all time highs; NAZ Volume to NYSE indicates speculation; the VIX is at a relative extreme low of 17.
For only the second time in many months equity flows have increased into mutual funds, and MMF outflows were a huge $21B. Talking heads are glowing with a global economic recovery, but China is slowing, as is Europe, and the Baltic Dry Index hit a multi-year low last week at 651 -cut in half from its high.
Usually reliable Bullish % and McClellan Oscillator are also at high levels - large commodity traders are shorting, while small traders are long the SPX futures. Insider (CEO) Selling is fairly but consistently high in recent weeks. Finally, AAII Bears are coming of near record "teen" lows.
Here are the numbers:

2/3/2012 1/27/2012
Indices: DJIA  12862 12660
  NAZ  2905 2816

SPX  1344 1316
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 4.4/9.6 ..4.0/9.1
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.18 2.28
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  60 62
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17.1 18.5

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2496/665 2251/905

Weekly Net: 1831 1346

     Cumulative: 132567 130736
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 526/32 367/25
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 341/39 200/39
McClellan  Oscillator 57 47
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 1236 1050
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 48.9 50
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 29.8 28.7

AAII  -Bull :wed. 43.8 48.4

Bear  25.1 18.9
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k (12)/42 (2)/16
CEOinsider selling 26:1 28:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 651 753
3-box rev Bullish%-  82 80
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag .8B
MMF flows Change in $B (21B) (15B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly OCT.
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ OCT.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.24% 0.22%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset-CommHedg 4.89 4.82

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